Kris Sidial🇺🇸
@Ksidiii
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Co-CIO of Ambrus| (Focus: Exotic Derivatives/Volatility/ Tail risk hedging )| @penn guy (Not investment advice)
Follower of Christ ...New York
Joined October 2013
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Ambrus Group is a carry-neutral tail risk firm, differing from most tail risk strategies. The firm is designed to generate substantial returns in the event of a market crash, while maintaining a flat performance during normal market conditions by actively trading
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ROBINHOOD BANNING trading on $AAL ...... AMERICAN AIRLINES.
Are you out your mind? At what point are we completely removing the ability to trade and invest at free will here?
Madness
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The $GME / $AMC saga raises questions about the moral fiber of the industry. One man with a large following has been advocating for a stock for four years and has invested his own money. How is this different from the following practices?
1) For years, banks have issued
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I come from a broken family so growing up I was always envious of Thanksgiving time.
So before you push away good old uncle Jim today for being “annoying” just know there are thousands of people out there that would kill for a real family.
God bless and happy thanksgiving 🦃
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THE TRUTH BEHIND 0DTE OPTIONS:
Over the last few months, we have noticed a lot of incorrect sell-side research reports and misleading headlines around 0DTE options. We took the time to dive into the data and extract what it is really saying.
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Just to be clear, the short-vol trade still has not capitulated. That flow is still active and very aggressive, as large footprints continue to show up as of yesterday and today.
To our knowledge, only two smaller desks have been carted off. The Vega rotated on the street over
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So are folks finally going to admit that Bitcoin holds a correlation to the equities market, or are we still believing that it is a hedge?
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Not a great sign for Q4 bears that PPI came in hot and futures are moving higher.
The absolute worst case for Q4 bears is if CPI comes in hot tomorrow and equities rally. This would be potentially signaling one of two things.
1) The market is normalizing to the inflation
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I have traded through numerous vol events (Flash crash/ Brexit/ Volmageddon/ Cov-19) my biggest moments as a trader have come from being long volatility.
Throughout the years I put together a list of notes that I refer to once $VIX crosses over 30. If you are convexity focused
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Surprised nobody is talking about that large overnight seller in /ES. Dude comes in every night, starts hammering the bid and then flashes away when he realizes he’s about to single handedly tank the market. Been rinse and repeat since the Fed talk.
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Seeing a lot of Russia hate on my timeline. Social media has the power to generalize a lot of things, let’s not forget that there are good Russian people that do not stand with Putin’s position.
Russian people are not the “enemy”… this is about the Russian administration.
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It’s amazing that there is this large crowd that believes “it’s impossible to beat the market”.
I come from a prop trading background and in that culture it is a commonality to destroy the market. As a matter of fact, if you are returning 10%, you probably are on the low end of
“It's not really hard to beat the S&P"
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Controversial take: There is an interesting behavioral situation that takes place on Fintwit when it comes to people sharing views.
I often see someone say, “I think the market is going up because of _______,” then, when they are clearly wrong, 20 people immediately make fun of
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Tomorrow the $TWTR deal will be accepted.
No I do not have inside information, I am basing this analysis on the strength of tomorrow being 4/20 and if there is one thing I learned over the last few years, it’s that we are in a circus act 😂
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BOOK THREAD: Trading / Volatility
(No particular order)
1) Trade like a casino: This book reinforces the core focus of what trading really is. Finding an edge and hammering it away
2) Trading volatility: If you want to learn about volatility and structures, this is a great
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Based on the comments and the article itself it seems like a lot of folks don’t have an understanding as to how tail options actually work. I’m seeing a lot of people saying things like “what an idiot, $VIX will never get there” 🤦🏽♂️.
$VIX is effectively variance which is vol².
'The CBOE Volatility Index hasn't popped above 35 all year, but some traders are betting it clocks 180 over the next few months.'
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You could show me any metric you want, but as a vol guy that sits in front of screens all day and watches flow & how the surface changes. I promise you, there is no real fear out there.
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Starting to see more technical analysis on $VIX appear. As many already know, this is not correct. Here is a quick cheat sheet about vol products that you should understand.
1) $VIX = Pricing derived from a strip of $SPX options
2) $VVIX = Pricing derived from a strip of $VIX
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One of the worst traders I ever came across was this older gentleman that was part of my team when I traded prop.
He blamed everything on “the algos”.
I see the same narrative with a lot of folks on here. Sorry to say, but blaming Citadel for everything is a coping mechanism.
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This is going to be a controversial take, and I'm sure it's going to upset some folks. However, the more equities shrug off hot inflation data, the more affirmation there is towards the dying narrative. If you've been trading for a while, you've seen narratives get cycled out of
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Equity markets don’t drop when everyone expects it
This move has been well anticipated for months. Which is why it shouldn’t have worked
I guess this is the tail risk, the event that occurs because everyone doesn’t think it will occur because everyone is thinking it will occur
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Disclaimer: This thread is not from an institutional vol mandate perspective, it will be more from a prop trader perspective
Contrary to what fintwit parades, losses are part of the game and drawdowns are very normal in trading.
It’s unrealistic to not expect these periods.
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(Coming from a minority who grew up in a low income housing area).... I really really really wished AOC put as much effort into creating actionable change as she does with these self promotion marketing campaigns. This whole Robinhood persona with no change is getting old.
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If you look back on pretty much every metric. Equity vol has been dismantled.
This is due to two main reasons.
1) The re-emergence of the short vol trade. This continues to be one of the largest factors we are watching right now as this continues to build in large size.
It’s
👀 US markets
Hedging demand has fallen sharply with the cost to protect against a market selloff down by around 10%, or one-standard deviation, tumbling to the lowest ever in data starting in 2013. Demand for tail-risk hedges that pay out in an equity fall as precipitous as 30%
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Live, breathe, eat, sleep trading.... nothing else I rather do. This is like the NBA for me.
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Last night I spent 3 hours in a room with 12 insanely wealthy family offices & a few large pension/ buyside participants.
I left the room with a different take on ESG investing for 2022 (and going forward).
It can be tempting, but you do NOT want to short this flow.
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Even when the S&P shows signs of stabilizing, volatility continues to rise. What's happening in the volatility market is not a scramble for hedging; rather, it is an unwinding of positions from firms that are significantly offside due to shorting volatility.
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One of the most valuable lessons I learned when trading prop was how to identify institutional order flow.
This becomes relevant when there is abnormal activity in the name (ex: relative strength/ weakness, correlation breaks etc)... extreme volatility etc.
(Continued)
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(Some will understand the tweet... others won’t)
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Currently at the hedgefund associations conference at papillon in NYC…. Of course so guy comes up to me asking about his coat and check in…… being black sure does show its perks at time lmao
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This is why it’s very silly to compare equity market performance today Vs other time periods. Structural flows have led to a new form of reflexivity that ultimately leads to price elasticity.
1) Vol control funds
2) Target date funds
3) Corporate buybacks
4) Dealer hedging
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When I was a junior trader I had a PM that used to force all the juniors to put in screen time for hours (sitting and watching markets intraday), despite the bulk of our trading being completed before 12pm ET.
At first I found it a bit annoying. As I grew older I realized how
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The psyche in trading is truly amazing.
Most bad traders will feel comfortable adding to losers as the market goes against them, in the HOPE that profits will materialize in the future.
Yet feel uncomfortable adding to winners as the market works in their favor, in the FEAR
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As the week goes by, we continue to gather more intel on this. We have friends who manage short-vol bias books, are connected with brokers involved in facilitating yield harvesting program flow, and receive distribution updates from quantitative investment strategies (QIS)
Just to be clear, the short-vol trade still has not capitulated. That flow is still active and very aggressive, as large footprints continue to show up as of yesterday and today.
To our knowledge, only two smaller desks have been carted off. The Vega rotated on the street over
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If you could play poker without paying the blind, wouldn’t you just wait until you had aces to bet?
That is the beauty of trading. The market doesn’t force you to bet, only you pick and choose when you do.
The problem is that:
1) most people won’t put in the time to know
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Macro trading is difficult. I never really bought into the idea that someone could assess the entire environment across all asset classes, and make judgment calls that constantly flip on a dime.
It obviously has been done successfully, and I tip my hat to those that have done
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Just when I thought these past few days couldn’t get any crazier,.. what the hell are the odds I get sat on a plane right next to this guy ……for thirty min he walked me through his thesis why this blue chip company will go from $14 to $1000 (zoom in on the phone) 😅😅😅
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98% of Hedge Funds that are grabbing onto the A.I narrative….
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Stating the obvious, but for the first time in a very long period, we observed significant increases in spot-vol-beta during an S&P sell-off. This is contrary to the previous norm observed in the last two years (2022 and 2023), where decreases in spot levels were accompanied by
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It’s very difficult to explain this, especially because it’s a “feel” with no hard stats.
This may be a scenario where unless you trade in front of screens every day, u may think I’m crazy.
But this isn’t really the price action bulls want to see before this meeting.
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As a black guy in America I just want to say that the “mentally ill” mass shooter excuse is getting very old. 😪
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Markets boil down to a few simple things. Buyers and sellers, aggressive buyers and sellers, and projecting where there will be more aggressive buyers and sellers.
The market doesn’t care about your 15 factor NLP model, it’s going to transact where-ever buyers and sellers want.
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S&P up roughly 11.3% in 12 trading days.
The reflexive dynamic coming from structural flows showing you exactly why it is so powerful and so relevant. If you think that this is "just dumb retail", that's a strawman's argument for not accepting the environment.
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On the prop side, it’s eat what you kill. So it’s drilled into your head how to properly learn how to hunt in markets.
When newer traders come to the table, they often don’t know where to search when trying to identify pockets of alpha.
As a TRADER, the focus should be on
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What happens when everyone flocks to buy puts and there is no follow through ....
The vol compresses, you get that vanna dynamic of dealer’s being short puts which means they will be covering their short stock/ futures hedges.... which leads to these hard upward rallies.
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Went to the carnival today, saw a guy buy about $1000 in tickets.... stand 100 feet away from the ticket booth and resell them for double the price to the people who didn’t want to wait in the long line.
I tried to explain to my friend that this was risk arb in its purest form.
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It’s unreal that there are experienced guys out there that post comprehensive learning content like this. When I was in college (and on the desk) I had to beg guys to explain actual market concepts to me. Twitter really is a treasure trove at times.
$500,000,000.
Half a billion dollars.
Currently, this is how much of $SPX index needs to be bought or sold for every 1% down or up move, respectively.
These flows are a result of a substantial options trade that was placed yesterday.
Let's have a look at what's going on 👇
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Goes without saying, spot- vol beta is insanely hot today. The folks that have been screaming “ $VIX is broken” are learning how reactive this thing can be when larger desks look to hedge off a real longer term catalyst (War).
Couple of rumors swirling around why vol is so bid.
Not really shocking to see such a strong past few days. After a rapid selloff it is common to see structural supportive flows.
If I were a bull, I would probably be hoping the market pulls back quite soon here and is met with a supportive bid. Parabolic straight up after such a
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Tonight LIU presented me with the “Alumni of the decade award”. Only 8 other people in the university’s history have received the award. I am extremely thankful and blessed.
Thank you to the entire university and the whole team at
@RocNation
.
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Just some commentary I wanted to share
So the relative weakness in vol has been very evident but it isn’t that much of a shocker as you may think. A 4% decline in the market should have printed a higher print in S&P and VIX Vols but there is a reason for that.
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A losing trade does not mean it is a bad trade. There is a big difference between the two.
Let’s use an actual example of what recently transpired in the market and how I was wrong on my view and call.
Thread:
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This market has led to a myriad of participants caught in a frenzy, executing trades in a price-insensitive manner. In simpler terms, people are in full FOMO mode.This creates a highly lucrative opportunity for trading intraday flow.
When trading flow, here are several
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I’m a bit confused why people have this view on SBF as the really smart kid that screwed up. He is almost 31, which means he’s a grown man.
This isn’t a 23 year old fresh grad making a trading error on the desk. The narrative around this story shouldn’t really be that.
I lost millions as an investor in
@FTX
and got sandblasted as a paid spokesperson for the firm but after listening to that interview I’m in the
@billAckman
camp about the kid!
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$NVDA order book after hours trading nearly as thick as $SPY at 9:30am on a Monday LOL. What a time to be alive.
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Here's a summarized version of my thoughts on the volatility market this week:
Recent Spike in Spot-Vol Beta: On Friday, we observed one of the largest spikes in spot-vol beta ever recorded. We've extensively researched this changing dynamic over the past two years (details are
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I've been saying this for a while now, and I know people think I'm "talking my book" because I'm a tail risk manager.
However, when this short volatility trade finally implodes, it’s going to be in large size. And everyone will look back and say, "Wow, that was so obvious."
@Ksidiii
A cool $4,000,000 mil notional committed to "constant yield" in $NVDA seen on FB earlier today.
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$SMCI is nearly at $1000 after hours.
This serves as a good reminder that if you're shorting U.S. stock options, the cutoff time for exercise is 5:30 PM ET, not the market's close.
This implies that if you were short on $SMCI $920 calls expiring today, despite the stock closing
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Outside of trading our portoflio, we often get clients that would like us to help them hedge their exposure for their portfolio.
An individual investor reached out and I felt inclined to give you guys some advice based on our conversation.
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$GME up 90% trading around a 300vol is a vol trader's dream. So many intraday pure arbs across the surface.
Can't fill much size, but still lucrative for anyone with a sub $250M book. MMs so far not doing an amazing job updating quotes on screens. True arbs coming at mid on
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To me, the most notable thing about this market (equities) is that sentiment is negative, but nobody is truly scared.
Fixed strike Vols continue to underperform, along with the lack of concern in the VX term structure (slight backwardation).
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There has been a lot of misinformation spread about tail risk recently so I wanted to take some time out on this train ride to discuss. If you guys stick with me, I think you’ll enjoy this.
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When reflecting on the Covid crash of 2020 it is well known that large institutions were short a significant amount of volatility. Systematic vol selling was in vogue and it was printing money. In hindsight, many people could not believe that everyone was short that much vol.
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Today I teach my first class in Trading and quantitative applications (university)
Good lord I feel old 😪😪😪
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I wanted to talk about how vol shops get run over trying to trade the spot to vol covariance relationship in the term structure by having this dogmatic statistical mindset on vol metrics.. instead I want to walk you guys through some “pure trader” heuristics that should help u
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The hate on this app is crazy sometimes. There’s a lot of miserable people that come on here and try to put others down to make themselves feel better. What’s worse is that 98% of the time. It’s GROWN MEN.
If you don’t like or agree with someone. Go on about your day.
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When we discuss how people have doubled down on the short vol trade, we recognize that the general public does not have access to the same data that we do.
1) The footprint of short vol/yield participants in the space
2) A distribution list of multiple short vol hedge funds and
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Getting a few questions on this so I think I'll do a brief thread.
Did $VIX actually get into the 60s? Yes, but was it tradeable or actionable? No. As $VIX moved higher in the premarket on Monday, the futures found a ceiling around 36. So despite $VIX being at 65, you couldn't
Surprised not many people are talking about the CBOE glitch that happened at the open. Tons of different vol guys (even on the pit) were having an issue working positions.
During every vol event you always get some weird data feed issue that temporarily hits.
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Word on the street is the infamous IB margin req is finally in play, I have been ultra bullish but this may actually change my tone 🤣🤣🤣
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I personally believe over the last 10 years, the academic side has had a boom in trading.
All these added complexities actually take away from what the end goal is. To be honest, I don’t think I ever met a successful trader that said “the more complex the better”.
In last 6 months, I’ve been asked by 3 of my friends that run groups/firms to general talk to young budding quants about what it’s really like. Conversations lead me to believe there’s too much intellectual masturbation.
KISS is KEY!
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I heard the exact same thing during March 2020 and we all seen how that turned out.
This is partially a byproduct of the long equity firms that have programs that are designed to exit when $VIX gets over a certain level and equities drop under a certain percentage.
“Institutional investors are offloading equities to retail” -BBG
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*Phone rings*
Financial advisor to client
“Yeah hello Jim, listen I’m telling you, the economy is strong. Job numbers today were great, we need to get in now, it’s an election year and we missed out last year. I’m going to start back allocating 25% of the portfolio to tech
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There is absolutely nothing wrong with being short volatility, same way there is nothing wrong with being long volatility.
Here’s where this whole thing goes wrong. When people become systematic and price agnostic, it leads to complete disaster. Markets don’t function that way.
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With the recent market pullback and overnight buying, I am seeing bulls and bears both overly outspoken that “this is the perfect buy” & “this is the perfect short”
Here is a little heuristic that has saved & made me money throughout the years.
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I come from a low income housing area, so a lot of my friends and family members are still located in that community.
It is only getting harder for them to live in NY. Even with governmental support, some don’t have an extra $50 to spare on a week by week basis.
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I know we have polarized the “buy the dip” thing to a point where any small pullback is viewed as a massive volatility event. But I can promise you we have not seen a real vol move in this selloff. Yes the $VIX is at 26 but you will know when a real vol move has set in.
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I want to share something for the newer traders in the game. I went through a time period in my career (will remain anonymous for legal purposes) when I was on absolute fire as a trader. I was returning a really good amount and for almost a year I felt like I was invincible.
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Volatility/ Derivatives 101: Tail risk hedging
WHY IS THIS DONE?
The whole purpose of a tail risk hedge is to protect a portfolio from large losses during market crashes.
1) Reduction in variance drag:
This ultimately leads to a higher geometric return over the long run.
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Back in the day, when I traded RV vol, I had a reliable setup: identifying stocks that experienced significant overnight vol changes (either a big gap up or down in spot moves). My focus was to sell a near-dated strike immediately at the open, with a maximum Vega loss. At 10:05
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Everyone is waiting for the FOMO on the bounce. But the signal for cash equity guys, is having the recent correlation between stocks and bonds start to decouple (bonds down/ stocks up). The more you get bonds down, stocks up, it will bring more faith to those chasers and Vols
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We're still not in "tail-event" territory, with the VIX remaining in the twenties. But, keep in mind that larger volatility-targeting/control funds have deleveraging triggers around the 30 level.
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We are a firm that is inherently long volatility with a focus on “tail risk”, but you never cheer for these type of things.
God bless and much love to the people in Ukraine. It’s very unfortunate to see this unfold this way.
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I feel bad for all you FX traders, the online scamming community took away the prestige of being able to say you are a real FX trader.
Now society just buckets you with the rest of those muppets.
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Disclaimer: this is for prop vol traders / speculative traders.
I often get asked the question “when is the best time to sell vol”
As a guy who loves long tails/ kurtosis, I am very open to admitting that “short vol” is “statistically” the side of the trade to be on.
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Junior derivatives trader question: (This one might be a little challenging)
Your boss has just attended a conference in Vegas. He’s sitting by the pool and has an epiphany that markets are going to crash after watching all the old men brag about their stocks to their 20 year
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Pro tip for the Junior traders:
When I was on the desk, I would buy large packs of Gum and openly leave them on my desk. Gum is a necessity to every trading desk. This was a way to get the senior traders to come over and chat a little bit. A chance to become liked and pick 🧠
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$VIX vol to S&P relationship is subpar. Lots of pre hedging came in that late Nov - Early Dec right around this range in the S&P, which is why we aren't seeing an aggressive bid for vols. Those hedges are still fresh and there isn't a NEED to run for more. We have also noticed
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Looking to do a “Twitter spaces” chat next week on tail risk hedging and volatility. Super informal, hoping to chat and have a free flowing conversation with folks. If you would be interested in attending, like this tweet.
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I run a vol arb hedgefund so I know people will label me a “suit”. That’s fine, but I believe in free trade especially for the people. Brokers stopping people from buying and selling seems like market manipulation to me. It’s sad honestly.
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I know we have known about this for quite some time now, but I truly believe this will cause more harm than good.
The illiquidity during the night session won't be a good thing when digesting immediate headline risk.
This may end up being the very reason we see $VIX at $100.
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Funny how you can tell Wall Street hierarchy just by an email response.
Junior: Detailed, thoughtful, meticulous response.
MD: five words, misspelling, bad punctuation.
The MD response is the ultimate show of power lol
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Alright guys, as promised... I’m going to start doing personal AMA for college students interested in trading. I will call you guys personally and talk about whatever it is you would like (strategy/ career path/ help etc)
Just retweet & like and I’ll randomly select 3
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This past weekend, I took home gold at the IBJJF International Charlotte Open, ending all my matches with submissions.
My teammate (the gentlemen next to me) took home bronze in the absolute division, manhandling the 250 pounders.
Excited to compete at World’s 🏆 🌎 later
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Why the fear mongering headlines that say "Hedge funds are net short", don't really matter that much in 2022.
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There are now a ton of algos attached to $BB and $AMC that are bidding and offering directly off of the price action on $GME ....... this is not just WSB, these are prop guys and other predatory hedgefunds that are now involved in moving this thing.
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This thread is something that is near and dear to my heart. It will solely be based on the never ending question that I receive.
"How do I become a trader".
Disclaimer: This will solely be based on MY experience and what worked for ME as a vol trader. I hope you enjoy!
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Just keeps getting larger and the intraday vol continues to demonstrate the knock on effects that this has.
It’s not to say that this means equities have to crash 10% or spike 10%. But when you see those nasty intraday whips blowing through the order book at key times
👀 $1.9tln of option notional expires on 20-May
🔹 $460 billion of derivatives across single stocks is scheduled to expire.
🔹 $855 billion of S&P 500-linked contracts will expire.
(via GS)
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Our models to measure kurtosis comes from a Bayesian approach that focuses on positional imbalances on US equities that will carry a heavier Beta during a selloff leading to a “bigger bang for your buck”.
(For 1M - 2M vol)
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You guys are probably sick of me by now, mainly because I have drilled this point a lot. But it continues to be very relevant.
This is roughly 6% of the entire U.S equity market coming off in one day. If u couple that w light liquidity & a vol shock. The price impact can be big.
Goldman: June Op-Ex Is "A Literally Massive, Repeat Massive" $3.2 Trillion
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I know we joke about the RIA's/ family offices/ allocators that think that bonds + gold will serve as a direct hedge to equity exposure. But I just heard a $100M family office manager tell me that crypto is their equity hedge.
The moral hazard is at an all time high.
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Growing up I didn’t have a father there to give me guidance, life advice, support etc.
Those of you that do, don’t take it for granted, bless them and show your gratitude today.
Because a lot of kids that grew up in these low income housing areas would kill for a real dad.
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