Krackhauer
@krackhauer
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Tracking flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere.
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Joined December 2023
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🇲🇲 SITREP: With the fall of the Northeast Regional Command in
#Lashio
, the prospect of nationwide armed conflict in Burma is looming. EAOs from various regions may capitalize on the regime's weakened state, even in the absence of a unified strategic plan among them. (1/13)
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261
NEW: Situation in
#Lashio
The Lashio airport has been reportedly taken over by the MNDAA. The situation at the Northeast Regional Command HQ is more complex, though the MNDAA stated that the entire town has been fully liberated. (1/4)
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
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219
🇨🇳🇲🇲 The fall of the Northeast Regional Command HQ in
#Lashio
could trigger consequences like mass surrenders, desertions, defections, and even potential revolts within the regime nationwide — a very critical and sensitive moment for the already deteriorating regime. (1/3)
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🚨The situation in
#Rakhine
State is deeply unsettling and requires careful scrutiny from international communities and observers.
The rohingya recruits, armed and supported by the Burma regime, chant "Allahu Akbar" as they set fire to homes belonging to local indigenous people
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113
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NEW: The Arakan Army's (AA) territorial gains against the regime's tri-service forces — army, navy, and air force — across the entire
#Rakhine
State in 🇲🇲 are quite remarkable. (1/10)
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60
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🇲🇲 Reports are emerging that General Soe Win, the vice regime leader, is gearing up to spearhead a major counteroffensive operation, codenamed
#Hsinbyushin
, aimed at reclaiming Northeast Shan. (1/6)
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163
🚨 BREAKING: As anticipated earlier, the Northeast Regional Command HQ has fallen, officially marking a historic humiliating defeat for the regime. The regional commander in Muse has reportedly fled to China. (1/7)
2/3 Given that the regional commander overseeing operations from Muse and the death of deputy, these low-morale regime units seem unlikely to hold off the MNDAA for much longer. They have limited options: either call for close air support to withdraw or surrender to the MNDAA.
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A female resistance fighter from Burma was observed carrying a Chinese-made Type 69 RPG, a copy version of the Soviet RPG-7. It appears that she also had Chinese-made PG-7 variants, including Type 2 and Type 3 HEAT anti-tank ammo, strapped to her back.
#RPG7
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@DenesTorteli
@GeopoliticalGu1
Not only Hungary but also Turkey in NATO are potential sources of leaking or deliberately passing down information to adversaries.
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NEW: The 🇲🇲 regime, along with the pro-regime armed group PNA, has reportedly been building up forces for months in preparation for a counteroffensive operation in
#Karenni
State.
Why does this matter for the regime? (1/7)
NEW: the regime unleashes a fresh offensive plan for Loikaw
The regime's two columns are said to be advancing toward Loikaw, the capital of Karenni State, from the north and northwest directions. (1/5)
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
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23
50
2
36
137
𝗘𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝘂𝗿𝗺𝗮 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗺𝗲'𝘀 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲
The vulnerability of the Burma military regime's strength is unmistakable.
#Operation1027
marked a turning point, triggering a cascade of events. These events included mass surrenders,
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🇨🇳🇲🇲 After the regime in Burma brutally cracked down on the country's democracy movement in 1988, the West imposed various embargoes and sanctions. As a result, Burma grew increasingly dependent on China. Over the years, it has essentially become a client state of China. (1/20)
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🇨🇳🇲🇲 A female member of the MNDAA is seen holding a Type-81 7.62x39mm assault rifle variant made by the UWSA. Her tactical stance in the picture suggests she is unlikely an actual combatant. The slogan behind her indicates their allegiance to the Chinese Communist Party
#CCP
.
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27
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𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗿: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗗𝘆𝗻𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗿𝘂𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝗿𝗺𝗮
The entrenched corruption within the regime in Burma has created a fertile ground for various illicit activities. The Battle of Myawaddy holds
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@sentdefender
After harassing and disrespecting an Israeli female officer, when the police responded, the individual named Johny Somali claimed, "I am from America, USA".
Well, it's a disgrace to the US, and somebody should deport him back to his country of origin, Somalia.
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The
#KNU
/
#KNLA
forces showcase the captured artillery from the regime base in Thingannyinaung,
#Karen
State: the 76mm mountain gun M-48, a relic from World War II, crafted by
#Yugoslavia
. This artillery piece features an effective range spanning approximately 5 to 6 miles.
The
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The
#Soviet
-era KPV-14.5 infantry support heavy machine gun and Yugoslav-made "Tito Gun" have been sighted with the
#KNU
/
#KNLA
, likely acquired from a regime base in Thigannyinaung,
#Karen
State.
The KPV-14.5 HMG is versatile, serving as both ground support and low-flying
The
#KNU
/
#KNLA
forces showcase the captured artillery from the regime base in Thingannyinaung,
#Karen
State: the 76mm mountain gun M-48, a relic from World War II, crafted by
#Yugoslavia
. This artillery piece features an effective range spanning approximately 5 to 6 miles.
The
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111
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29
107
🇲🇲 With reports of UWSA troops withdrawing from Lashio, the regime has been consistently launching airstrikes on Nawngkhio, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw. If the UWSA has indeed pulled out, Lashio could be the regime's next target for airstrikes. (1/3)
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109
There are some significant developments regarding the previous predictions about the six key operational theaters across Burma and the potential revolt brewing within the regime. (1/10)
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🇨🇳🇲🇲 A highly challenging scenario — if the
#3BHA
forms a unified front and effectively deploys the regime assets they seized during
#Operation1027
:Part I, the Northeast Command HQ is now under a significant threat. (1/4)
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
Many are fleeing Lashio, fearing a potential full-blown conflict in the town. 🇺🇳 A
#UN
vehicle was among those seen by eye-witness accounts.
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
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The regime's defensive line en route to Madaya has reportedly been breached. This marks an interesting and critical moment for new developments.
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
4/6 Once Madaya, north of Mandalay, is taken control, the Central Regional Command in Mandalay will become the key defensive position. This will severely limit reinforcement and logistical support to Pyin Oo Lwin.
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The
#AA
released footage showing captured regime POWs and their family members, reportedly led by the second-in-command of the 15th MOC.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
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🇨🇳🇲🇲🇹🇭 ANALYSIS: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Burma and Thailand from August 14 to 17. He will co-chair the 9th Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Foreign Ministers' Meeting and join an informal discussion with the FMs of Laos, Burma, and Thailand. (1/10)
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ANALYSIS: Potential War Drums Beyond
#Lashio
As anticipated earlier regarding the offensive in Lashio, there are reports of the MNDAA deploying armored vehicles captured during Operation 1027 Part I. (1/6)
🇨🇳🇲🇲 A highly challenging scenario — if the
#3BHA
forms a unified front and effectively deploys the regime assets they seized during
#Operation1027
:Part I, the Northeast Command HQ is now under a significant threat. (1/4)
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
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The Arakan Army recently released footage showing their full capture of the regime’s naval diving and salvage depot in
#Thandwe
,
#Rakhine
.
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🧵1/
The fluctuating situation surrounding the Battle of
#Myawaddy
has left many pro-democracy advocates from Burma feeling discouraged. Meanwhile, some individuals are intentionally capitalizing on this situation by spreading distorted and manipulated reports in an attempt to
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NEW: Operation
#Hsinbyushin
represents the regime's high-risk gamble to reclaim lost territory in northeast Shan. The operational readiness of the regime's ground assault is constrained, with a reliance on outdated, non-precision airstrikes. (1/6)
🇲🇲 Reports are emerging that General Soe Win, the vice regime leader, is gearing up to spearhead a major counteroffensive operation, codenamed
#Hsinbyushin
, aimed at reclaiming Northeast Shan. (1/6)
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After the 606th Missile Battalion, the last remaining regime unit in Nawngkhio, fell into the hands of the TNLA on July 10, there is no longer a significant regime line of defense between Pyin Oo Lwin and Nawngkhio. (1/4)
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
3/4 If Lashio falls, Pyin Oo Lwin won't be an effective line of defense without seasoned combatants. Understanding this, the regime will do everything to defend Lashio and appeal China to pressure the 3BHA.
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🚨 The recent deployment of UWSA troops in
#Lashio
means the town is now shielded from the regime's reckless airstrikes, no matter what other agendas might be in play. (1/2)
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
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A rare U.S.-made M2 Browning .50 cal heavy machine gun, possibly seized from the regime, has been spotted in use by the
#KNLA
on the
#Myawaddy
Asia highway.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
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Op1027, which began in northeastern Shan, is now spreading into the Mandalay region. With the MDY-PDF currently controlling Singu, just 58 miles from Mandalay — where the Central Regional Command HQ is located — the area is facing imminent danger. (1/3)
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
After the 606th Missile Battalion, the last remaining regime unit in Nawngkhio, fell into the hands of the TNLA on July 10, there is no longer a significant regime line of defense between Pyin Oo Lwin and Nawngkhio. (1/4)
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
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After capturing the Kagam Bum outpost in Waimaw township,
#Kachin
State, a member of the
#KIA
was seen with an early Cold War-era relic; a Yugoslavian-made M56A1 105mm howitzer.
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
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🇨🇳🇲🇲 The recent three-point announcement from the
#MNDAA
on Sept 18 2024 (dated Sept 4 2024 on the document) has significant implications for the momentum of the ongoing anti-regime armed resistance in Burma. (1/11)
🇨🇳🇲🇲 As I always say, a total collapse of the Burmese regime isn’t in China’s best interests.
Most importantly, the ongoing divisions and lack of unified leadership among the anti-regime armed groups are causing the resistance to lose momentum and cohesion. (1/3)
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Over a hundred Islamic rohingya, who had been conscripted into the Burma regime, reportedly surrendered to the
#AA
on May 4, 2024.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
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🇲🇲 SITREP: Nawngkhio, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw are key strategic and logistical positions that need to be secured before launching a major assault on
#PyinOoLwin
. (1/3)
🇲🇲 With reports of UWSA troops withdrawing from Lashio, the regime has been consistently launching airstrikes on Nawngkhio, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw. If the UWSA has indeed pulled out, Lashio could be the regime's next target for airstrikes. (1/3)
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🇨🇳🇲🇲 Proxies Within Proxies
The recent mass mobilization of the UWSA troops to Tangyan in northern Shan, cited by a UWSA spokesperson as a preventive measure amid the ongoing conflict, has prompted significant questions regarding its impact on
#Operation1027
: Part II. (1/6)
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UPDATE: New Developments in Northeastern Shan
The regional commander of the Northeast Regional Command HQ has reportedly fled to Muse, while his deputy was allegedly killed in action in Lashio. (1/2)
5/10 The Northeast Regional Command headquarters in Lashio was reportedly breached, leading to the routing of the remaining regime forces. The humiliating defeat of a regional command headquarters is likely to be officially recorded in history.
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As of May 18th, reports indicate that the Arakan Army has taken control of the town itself and thirteen regime units, including the 15th MOC in Buthidaung, northern Rakhine. Nearly 70% of the town was allegedly set ablaze by regime troops, forcing residents to flee for their
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Many are fleeing Lashio, fearing a potential full-blown conflict in the town. 🇺🇳 A
#UN
vehicle was among those seen by eye-witness accounts.
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
🇲🇲 04JULY24, intense battles are being reported near Lashio. If the regime can't halt the advance of the MNDAA and TNLA, a direct confrontation in the town is likely. To defend the Northeast Regional Command HQ, the regime may deploy armored vehicles and close air support. (1/2)
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The recent deployment of National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) forces in Mongyawng presents another challenge for the regime. The NDAA, like UWSA and MNDAA, is a remnant of the Communist Party of Burma and has considerable Chinese influence. (1/2)
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
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𝗠𝘆𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗱𝗱𝘆: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗶𝗳𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝗕𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝘂𝗿𝗺𝗮 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗺𝗲
The Battle of Myawaddy holds immense significance for the beleaguered Burma regime, which finds itself losing battles across the nation. Losing control of Myawaddy would not
𝗕𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝘆𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗱𝗱𝘆
The Battle of
#Myawaddy
is a pivotal moment in the broader Burma conflict, particularly in the active southern theater where resistance groups operate. While its outcome alone may not dictate the conflict's overall result, its importance cannot
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The
#KIA
troops have been spotted employing the Chinese-made Type 54 heavy machine gun, which is mounted on a tripod and equipped with anti-aircraft sights.
This relic from the early Cold War era operates with the 12.7x108mm cartridge, offering considerable firepower and range.
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🇷🇺🇲🇲 In an interview with Russian media, the chairman of the USDP hinted that Russian military intervention in Burma might join forces with Min Aung Hlaing's regime to combat the growing threat posed by opposition forces. (1/13)
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🚨 Initial reports say the Arakan Army seized Thandwe Airport on the evening of June 23, with intense fighting ongoing against the 566th Light Infantry Battalion in Thandwe township.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
The ULA, the political wing of the Arakan Army, has issued an urgent notice for residents of Maungdaw to evacuate the town by 2100hr (Burma time) on June 16. It appears that the AA is about to enter the town and clear out the remaining regime positions.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
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🇨🇳🇲🇲 On Oct 10 2024, the MNDAA announced a directive prohibiting its personnel from traveling abroad and engaging with foreign entities, including Western media and press.
Or is it more likely a narrative twist suggesting that the MNDAA being driven by 🇨🇳? (1/8)
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𝗕𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝘆𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗱𝗱𝘆
The Battle of
#Myawaddy
is a pivotal moment in the broader Burma conflict, particularly in the active southern theater where resistance groups operate. While its outcome alone may not dictate the conflict's overall result, its importance cannot
𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁: 𝗕𝘂𝗿𝗺𝗮 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗺𝗲'𝘀 𝗟𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀
Since the launch of
#Operation1027
in northern
#Shan
State in October 2023, the Burma regime's territorial control has significantly weakened.
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The
#SSPP
/
#SSA
-North, backed by the
#UWSA
, has long been engaged in a rivalry with the
#RCSS
/SSA-South over territorial claims and other issues, despite a recent ceasefire agreement.
If the SSPP overtly enters the conflict, it would create a new front, involving a web of
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66
As of June 7, 2024, the operational report of the Arkan Army indicates ongoing battles between AA and regime forces in Maungaw, Thandwe, and Ann townships throughout the Rakhine State. (1/8)
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
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34
66
@JewishWarrior13
The Biden Administration hasn't just betrayed our strongest ally 🇮🇱 in the Middle East. It has also put the security of the entire Western world, which relies on U.S. protection, into question.
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As expected before, on August 30, the regime reportedly carried out airstrikes on
#Lashio
for a number of possible reasons. (1/2)
🇲🇲 With reports of UWSA troops withdrawing from Lashio, the regime has been consistently launching airstrikes on Nawngkhio, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw. If the UWSA has indeed pulled out, Lashio could be the regime's next target for airstrikes. (1/3)
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1
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65
🇨🇳🇲🇲 Certain aspects of
#Operation1027
:PartII, recently relaunched on 25JUN24 as a sequel by the TNLA, still need clarification over the coming days or even weeks, particularly concerning any hidden agenda by CN and its possible impact. Here are some key points to consider. (1/5)
On June 29, MNDAA and regime forces clashed near Hsenwi. MNDAA hasn't officially commented on
#Operation1027
: Part II, and Chinese influence could complicate matters. This situation needs close observation.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
0
10
24
1
26
64
🚨 UPDATE: Situation at the Northeast Regional Command HQ in
#Lashio
Naypyidaw was informed only after UWSA troops were deployed in Lashio. The struggling regime had no choice but to agree to the UWSA deployment in Lashio. (1/4)
2/2 According to OSINT, Naypyidaw was unaware of the UWSA troops' deployment in Lashio since July 27th. Nevertheless, pro-regime lobbyists assert that negotiations took place between the regime and the UWSA.
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NEW: Latest developments in Maungdaw, Rakhine
On the evening of May 22, the Arakan Army reportedly seized No. 2 Border Guard Police Detachment. (1/2)
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
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10
60
🇨🇳🇲🇲 This alone shows how the regime in Burma is desperately seeking favor from Beijing.
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
4/4 The critical factor to monitor is 🇨🇳's stance in response to the regime's plea, considering interests and the situation to exert pressure on 3BHA. But if 3BHA's territorial expansion operations in northern Shan align with Chinese interests, then the regime is toast for sure.
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29
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UPDATE: senior regime officers captured alive at the Northeast Regional Command HQ in 🇲🇲
#Lashio
While the current regional commander of the Northeast Command HQ is reportedly fleeing to China from Muse (1/3)
🚨 BREAKING: As anticipated earlier, the Northeast Regional Command HQ has fallen, officially marking a historic humiliating defeat for the regime. The regional commander in Muse has reportedly fled to China. (1/7)
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Burma Regime's Evolving Drone Strategy 🧵(1/8)
As previously mentioned, the Burma regime has apparently managed to upgrade its drone capabilities to some extent with support from China, Russia, Belarus, and potentially even from Iran and India, according to various open-source
🧵3/
Strategic Perspective
Here comes the significant challenge for the opposition groups. As they expand their territorial control and administrative reach, the need for a unified chain of command becomes increasingly pressing to manage logistics and supply lines effectively,
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Recent footage indicates that the TNLA is preparing for mobilization in northern Shan State.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
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🇨🇳🇲🇲 Burma's Warlord Ascendance & China's Influence
Shortly after the UWSA deployed over 2,000 troops in Tangyan, the SSA-North/SSPP also sent their troops to Mongyai on July 13, citing preventative measures in response to
#Operation1027
:Part II in Northern Shan. (1/9)
🇨🇳🇲🇲 Proxies Within Proxies
The recent mass mobilization of the UWSA troops to Tangyan in northern Shan, cited by a UWSA spokesperson as a preventive measure amid the ongoing conflict, has prompted significant questions regarding its impact on
#Operation1027
: Part II. (1/6)
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22
55
A resistance fighter was observed carrying a Chinese-made Type 69 RPG armed with a HEAT anti-tank round. Notably, the heat shield on the launcher appears to be customized or modified from the original design.
This footage likely took place near the foothills of the
#Dawna
Range,
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9
53
While the Northeast Regional Command HQ in Lashio faces imminent danger from MNDAA-led forces, the regime's naval station in Kyaukpyu is now seemingly under threat from the Arakan Army.
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
As of June 7, 2024, the operational report of the Arkan Army indicates ongoing battles between AA and regime forces in Maungaw, Thandwe, and Ann townships throughout the Rakhine State. (1/8)
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
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19
54
As of July 29, MNDAA forces have reportedly encircled and are actively engaging the armored, signal, artillery, and engineering battalions, as well as the logistics battalion, of the Northeast Regional Command HQ in
#Lashio
. (1/3)
🚨 UPDATE: Situation at the Northeast Regional Command HQ in
#Lashio
Naypyidaw was informed only after UWSA troops were deployed in Lashio. The struggling regime had no choice but to agree to the UWSA deployment in Lashio. (1/4)
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23
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1
12
53
NEW: the regime unleashes a fresh offensive plan for Loikaw
The regime's two columns are said to be advancing toward Loikaw, the capital of Karenni State, from the north and northwest directions. (1/5)
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
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23
50
Reports indicate that the Northeastern Command of the regime in Lashio has been heavily fortified, not only with manpower and large-calibre weapons but also with 🇨🇳🇷🇺 Chinese and Russian-made drones. (1/7)
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
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🇨🇳🇲🇲 NEW: The recent meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Burmese regime leader Min Aung Hlaing on Wednesday wasn’t necessarily an endorsement of Hlaing’s troubled regime, even though the discussion featured the usual diplomatic pleasantries. (1/6)
Chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) of Myanmar Min Aung Hlaing and Chinese FM Wang Yi meet in Myanmar capital discussing deepening bilateral mutually beneficial cooperation
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The TNLA led coalition has launched a new offensive and taken control of Nawnghkio, a town located northeast of Pyin Oo Lwin. Regime positions in the a surrounding area have reportedly been dismantled on June 25-26. (1/2)
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
🚨 War seems imminent again in northern Shan. Key questions are the intensity of the conflict and potential Chinese interference. If the
#3BHA
unites and launches a major offensive like Op1027, it could indirectly benefit the AA in Rakhine militarily.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
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🇲🇲 As
#MinAungHlaing
seeks to consolidate his power by promoting three lieutenant generals to generals, this move can be seen as not only expanding his network of loyalists but also as a shift of authority away from the vice regime leader toward his own trusted confidants. (1/2)
Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, who has come under fire from regime supporters for presiding over a series of historic military defeats, has promoted lieutenant generals in his inner circle in an apparent move to retain his shaky seat.
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𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲: 𝗛𝘂𝗯 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗿𝘂𝗴 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
#UNODC
released its latest report in December 2023 on
#opium
cultivation in the
#GoldenTriangle
. The report highlights a significant increase
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A malfunctioning mortar weapon operated by the regime troop in Burma was caught on CCTV, making a laughingstock of Chinese border guards for the day!
This is how Beijing has positioned its client state, Burma, which is not allowed to collapse outright nor thrive, keeping it
Chinese border guards watching a Myanmar Junta soldier's weapons malfunction through CCTV.
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Two Islamic rohingya were seen with the regime's BA-63 7.62x51mm rifles, a clone version of the German-origin H&K G3.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
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NEW: Operational Situations in Kachin, Chin and Karen States of Burma
The Kachin Independence Army reportedly took control of the 321st Light Infantry Battalion in Waimaw late on May 26th. (1/3)
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🇨🇳🇲🇲 As I always say, a total collapse of the Burmese regime isn’t in China’s best interests.
Most importantly, the ongoing divisions and lack of unified leadership among the anti-regime armed groups are causing the resistance to lose momentum and cohesion. (1/3)
A dangerous pivot: while China continues some measure of hedging in Myanmar, its recent tilt towards the military junta has triggered popular backlash and could place investments in the crossfire: interview with
@voacantonese
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The spokesperson of the Kawthoolei Army, a separatist faction within the KNU, has purportedly switched sides to join the BGF. Rather than uniting to confront the regime, there's a troubling trend of fragmentation and discord among the rev. groups. (1/5)
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🇲🇲 04JULY24, intense battles are being reported near Lashio. If the regime can't halt the advance of the MNDAA and TNLA, a direct confrontation in the town is likely. To defend the Northeast Regional Command HQ, the regime may deploy armored vehicles and close air support. (1/2)
On July 2 evening, the MNDAA reportedly launched an offensive near Lashio, home to the regime's Northeast Regional Command. So far, no official statement has been made by the MNDAA. The intensity and extent of their actions remain to be seen.
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