Kirill Shamiev
@kirlant
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Civ-mil, public policy & RU politics. PhD in PoliSci. Fellow at @ECFR . Tweets in personal capacity only. Email: Shamiev_Kirill at
Joined January 2011
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RU's new defence minister claimed that the most urgent task for the RUAF is to supply the troops in Ukraine with ammunition, missiles, UAVs and EW equipment, and to improve the quality of military training. Will he succeed? My new report in
@ecfr
provides timely answers 1/5
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Все ещё удивляюсь, как никто там в Америке не придумал сценарий, когда глава комиссии просто убегает с пачкой бюллетеней, закрывается в ТИКе и выдаёт 75/25% результат.
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Finnair passengers with Russian IDs and EU visas/residence permits were denied boarding intra-EU flights: Dusseldorf - Helsinki; Vienna - Helsinki.
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Russian regions will soon have the authority to establish their own private military companies and arm them, according to the proposed amendments being rushed through the State Duma. 1/5
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Important take: stop assuming that all Russian prisons are in Siberia. We are a developed nation and we have comfortable torture centres next to Moscow or right in Saint Petersburg.
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My female Russian friend got randomly cursed and shouted at while walking in Tbilisi. Stop doing this, people, we are literally one stab away from open hate crimes.
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Protests in Moscow for freedom in Lithuania. From 100,000 to 500,000 people gathered in the city center.
“Freedom for Lithuania”, “Today Lithuania — Tomorrow Russia, we won’t tolerate it!!!” — the banners say.
Those antique soviet tanks being deployed in Ukraine were also deployed in our capital city 32 years ago to crush our independence.
We still remember the sound of the engines. We will never forget the victims.
We stood firm and we won our freedom. Ukrainians will do the same.
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There are no more places available in detention centres in St Pete's and Moscow. All filled with anti-war protesters.
Из-за массовых задержаний в спецприемниках Москвы и Санкт-Петербурга закончились места
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Unfortunately, this war is a horrible empirical test for my dissertation about Russian civil-military relations and military effectiveness. I haven't been able to touch it for the last month (I just couldn't), but I can share my notes here on RU military culture: 0/
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The apartment complex in St Pete’s where my relatives live is surrounded by the police giving out draft notices. “Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”
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Флаг свободной России после введения новых торговых ограничений:
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Moscow is cooking up public opinion for something. They used the Islamist attack on Crocus to spread more hatred against UA. At the same time, dozens of far-right channels are propagating violence against Central Asian/migrant people and the deportation of their families 1/6
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Ну то есть как защищать маленькую Армению, так ОДКБ не может, а как революцию подавить, так пожалуйста. Родина всегда тебя предаст, сынок/որդիս/ұлым
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There is a real gap between what is said on social media and what happens in Russia. Everyone I know in RU is either not surprised or accepts it as a new challenge. The mood is pragmatic and calm. On social media, RU collapsed 17 times, and Putin died because of embarrassment.
I fear talk about Putin humiliation is overblown. Especially from Russian point of view — the narrative is still very controlled there. And if the Kursk offensive ends not quite as gloriously as it has started.
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For the record: I am half Mari, half Karelian, my relatives are from Bashkiria, and we do not need unsolicited Western advice on our future in Russia.
Free Tatarstan. Free Bashkiria. Free Chechnya. Free Buryatia. Free Dagestan. Free Tuva. Free Karelia. Free Chuvashia. Free Sakha.
End Moscow’s empire.
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Напоминаю, что:
Димон: дизайнерские резиденции, интересный русский стиль, любит Волгу, Москву и горы, уважает свою малую Родину, не стесняется фоткать зимние елки на айфон
Путин: комната для грязи, бункер и выдвижной пилон.
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Small talks in Western Europe:
"-How are you?
- I am good good, lovely weather, how is it going for you?"
Small talks in Eastern Europe:
"- How are you?
- What? Ah, alive"
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It is a shame that no one cares about Azerbaijan's war against Armenia. Just a PSA, Azerbaijan is a more authoritarian country than even Russia. Armenia and Azerbaijan are in the Eastern Partnership.
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I am helping Russians who are against the war with applying to foreign universities. Are there any schools that still have open calls for 2022/2023 AY?
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Russian MoD declared a “special military operation” against the state of fragile masculinity
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The amendment allows governors to create state-owned enterprises during “mobilization, military emergencies, or wartime to aid security forces in safeguarding the national borders, combating sabotage and reconnaissance groups, and illegal armed formations.” 2/5
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The EU struggles to sanction the Kremlin for poisoning
@navalny
. What can be a strategically effective response from Europe? You'd be surprised but it's visa liberalization for Russians =< 25 y.o. It would make them more pro-European and less exposed to gov. propaganda. Why?
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It means “Merry Christmas” in Russian
Russian army sends warm greetings to American optical reconnaissance satellites. Telegram Militarist
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The decision to form and dissolve these military state-owned companies will rest with the President. The funding for these entities will come from both federal and regional budgets. 3/5
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They will be equipped with combat firearms and ammunition, which must be returned after their disbandment. Employees of these state-owned military companies will be authorized to use physical force and firearms in the same situations as law enforcement personnel. 4/5
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Короче, пацаны и пацанессы, НАТОвский Atlantic Council открыто заявил, что а)
@navalny
не поддерживает американскую внешнюю политику, поэтому б) демократия в РФ может быть невыгодна США. Не хватает ещё предложения, что ВВП - последний европеец, сдерживающий немытую русскую орду.
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I still can't face the fact that croissants were created in Vienna in celebration of the defeat of the Ottoman Empire. And the shape was literally copied from the Ottoman crescent.
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This was supposed to be a nice, calm post-graduation weekend for me in Vienna. Now, I am sitting here with my laptop and starting this thread (updating) on the development of Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion against the Russian regime. 1/
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Eating Georgian food brought by a Kyrgyz (my bet, I haven’t asked) waitress in the “Armenian&Russian” restaurant in Austria next to Kazakhstan’s embassy, surrounded by Polish and Russian families, listening to Elton John (Sorry Seems to Be, like Европа+). Eurasia is amazing.
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I’m excited to announce that a few hours ago I defended my PhD dissertation. Five years, one project. Thank you
@RisaBrooks12
,
@CarstenQSchneid
,
@Curseofthe9th
, Prof. Cristina Corduneanu-Huci for providing support and being on my Doctoral Committee. Now I am
@CEUalumni
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They will also be permitted to neutralize unmanned vehicles of all types – aerial, surface, subsurface, and transport. 5/5
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Российские публичные эксперты be like: моего друга УмГ не поддержало, но мне нужно сохранить публичное лицо! Придумаю-ка я аргументацию, почему нельзя голосовать по УмГ
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I am 100% convinced that the Crocus attack is not a false flag, but I am sure that cynical proto-fascist technocratic political professionals on Kremlin service are now working 24/7 to turn this tragic event to their advantage as they know 2024 is the window of opportunity. 6/6
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Two conceptual takeaways:
1) RU military cherishes its apolitical nature. They believe following an order is the ultimate duty of a servicemember;
2) At the same time, RU military tends to believe it's them who have the highest and best patriotic values and qualities. 1/
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Haha, they used the picture of the antiwar and anti-Putin protest to make this claim!
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Following the order is the
#1
rule for the RU military. Theoretically, it's a positive thing - the mil obeys the civilians. However, practically, RU military lacks alternative control mechanisms if the supreme commander and anyone else down the ladder makes a criminal order 2/
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At the lowest levels, it is one of the causing factors for brutal, illogical bullying and toxic atmosphere in the military. You either learn who is in charge (and informal (corrupt) ways to slack off) or they will try to crush you: psychologically and sometimes physically. 3/
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The level of screaming violence on social media is insane to me. I've never seen it before. And I am Russian, the threat of terrorism almost became a norm for me. They're auctioning off a knife that was used to cut off the terrorist's ear, with his blood on it. 2/6
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Of course, this analysis is too general, the RU military is huge, and there are other alternative reasons for its specific behaviour. It also does not explain cases of targeted brutality, which needs a psychiatric evaluation (which is almost non-existent in RU military) /end
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When the situation is dire, the spiral of violence intensifies. The higher-ups can't afford a defeat, folks on the ground lose temper and begin to do anything to survive and follow the fucking order. If the civilians are involved, well, it's their problem, one has an order 6/
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Интересно, а почему те националисты, которые "современные" и "адекватные", не вступились за одну единственную Дарью Серенко, которую толпа школьников и инцелов уже столько времени преследует? Им комфортней с мальчиками, которые 14,88 рублей Дарье на Сбербанк кидают?
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Institutionally, the RU mil over-reliance on its officers exacerbates the problem. The officers are in charge of everybody and in control of everything. It's a tough job and obv. negatively affects morale and effectiveness, unless one literally lives together with his soldiers 4/
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Today, I submitted my PhD on civil-military relations and defence reforms in Putin's Russia. Still to be defended, but it feels strange.
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Therefore, we have an incredibly centralised and culturally internalised system of obedience, which simultaneously has some issues with effectiveness, but one cannot criticise it and can only stay neutral or support it. It is a systemic issues that causes sickening crimes. 11/
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Hence the system which is heavily compliant and ineffective (one'd rather slack off or put window dressing than formally disobey). In combat, one can hardly play dumb, so they opt for the remaining tool: violence for the sake of the local order and unit survival. 5/
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The Ukrainian assassin and her handler, Azov militant Mykhailo Nitup -- photo leaked by famous Russia expert Valery Solovei
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What I find *deeply* concerning that I have a feeling that many literally *hope* Russia screws up here. And this is a public health issue not the Olympic Games or military exercises. Why can’t we be just a bit more compassionate and sensitive here, can we?
EXCLUSIVE: This is the number of ventilators (which a fraction of
#COVID19
patients need to breathe) in regions across Russia.
Even rural Russian areas beat Italy's average — and the U.S.'s, and the U.K.'s. But that may not mean much in the big picture:
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When in doubt, then comes takeaway
#2
-- a normative believe that the military is the main patriot. Their patriotic values and norms are to be respected. The other side of the brain tells you're mistaken -- sergeant stole your phone, and you got no heating for a week already 7/
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The cacophony of voices is uncoordinated, but the strategic direction is similar: Ukrainians, their Western masterminds, Russian liberals, migrants, etc. are to blame and should be eliminated. Those who do it brutally are heroes, those who are against torture are traitors. 5/6
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In peacetime, it causes normative dissonance and staff turnover -- we are supposed to be cool, but in fact we are shite. Make no mistake, they acknowledge their problems, but have no means to push the higher-ups for change (MoD and the Kremlin). 8/
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So while the German federal government is refusing to sanction the Russian energy sector, Bavaria easily sanctions Russian academics. Because academics build T-72 tanks in their free time, while oil and gas — only beautiful Autos at Bayerische Motoren Werke, as we all know
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Everyone: Saint Petersburg is such a romantic city
Saint Petersburg:
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At the same time, they impose a convincing sense of victimhood on the entire nation. They use the natural grief for the lost and injured and the anger at the criminals to suppress sober thinking. It is a moral panic when morality is what the supreme boss says. 4/6
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It's uncomfortable to think you're shite (who likes it?), so most would find other normative excuses to feel alright. *One* of them -- at least we're genuine patriots. In wartime, it changes the calculus -- they're fighting for the country, they're patriots, respect them 9/
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Офигеть, вышел за шоколадно-вишневым пончиком в Der Mann, а тут взрыв, АН ретвитнул, Россия проснулась. Пользуясь случаем, будете в Вене, заходите в Der Mann, там за €2 такую тяжелую красоту дают. А ещё можете меня фоловить, я сквозь слёзы пишу про Россию Матушку и безопасность
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Making it increasingly difficult to criticise the military especially in a heavily repressive and restrictive environment (like now in Russia). In the 90s, the state was failing, though some critical journalists and activists were harassed anyway. 10/
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Представляете, если бы Димон остался президентом, сколько интересных новых дизайнерских решений мы бы узнали из расследований ФБК? Так бы и вкусы россиян улучшились!
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The story of non-native English speakers: one native reviewer of your text erases a definite article that was placed there by another native reader. Ну и как это понимать.
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Today the FSB reported that a terrorist attack on a humid point in Samara Region had been prevented. Andrey Zvakin (30), an alleged member of the UA GUR's RDK unit, blew himself up during his arrest. 3/6
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People who think that Putin will trade Kursk for something in negotiations should open a page called "Vladimir Putin" on wikipedia dot org. Kursk civilians should have done it 2 days ago to make an informed decision about evacuation. TLDR: This is not going to help negotiations.
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My parents are now sending me these pics from Kamchatka. It’s another planet: snow, mountains, lakes are blended with toxic geysers emitting lye, hydrogen sulfide, and boiling liquid. Life-threatening danger with stunning beauty.
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Опытным путем установлено, что Дождь смотрят 300 миллионов тысяч миллиардов людей, потому что у меня на ФБ +17 заявок в друзья за 10 минут, папа написал, и еще люди в Тви тегают. Ого
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Американские источники Рейтерс заявляют, что в группировку на границе с Украиной доставили медицинское оборудование и запасы донорской крови. Это один из важнейших индикаторов финальной подготовки к боевым действиям.
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Уже 3 моих знакомых или знакомых друзей совершили самоубийство или его попытку за последние 6 месяцев. Это мужчины, оппозиционных взглядов, уехали после 02.2022 и не нашли себя за границей. Эмиграция - это сложно. Вы не одни, позвоните в скорую, если вы чувствуете, что на грани.
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Sad news about Viacheslav Morozov. A lot has been said about it, but I've noticed two worrying patterns of reaction that I think need to be highlighted 1/10
The intelligence service in question was GRU. Morozov gathered information on Estonian foreign, interior and defence policy, infrastructure, elections and societal integration. He was paid for these activities, but the sums of money weren't large.
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Excited to co-author this piece with one and only
@DrJadeMcGlynn
. Here, we explore the role of nationalism before, what it means today, and what may happen soon. There's a potential for an appropriate type of nationalism but also for its nastiest form
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Лол, сестра одной моей знакомой, работающая в аффилированном с государством питерском центре общественного мнения, говорит, что они делают сквозной обзвон по телефонной базе и записывают адреса тех, кто говорит, что не пойдёт голосовать за поправки. Зачем, интересно 🧐🌝🧐🌝🧐
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Happy to announce that I joined ECFR as a visiting fellow
It is critical that EU member states and institutions start to plan for a range of postwar and post-Putin scenarios in Russia, argues our visiting fellow
@kirlant
.
@ECFRWiderEurope
@guardian
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Политическое руководство России и Администрация президента Путина сейчас будут активно искать и придумывать виноватых. Хотя очевидно, что основной причиной этой провальной авантюры является президент, создавший единоличную систему управления. Это было очевидно даже до 24.02.
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Excited to share my report about the Russian military leadership published by
@CSIS
. In this text, I briefly talk about relationships of Russian Ministers of Defense with Chiefs of the General Staff and the implications on Russia's military policies.
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Here is an anecdote: years ago, during basic military training, one of us found a cockroach in the morning porridge. The cook didn’t apologize and said it’s okay because it could happen at all “nutrition units.”
->
Bizarre that Russia didn't have enough rations for its soldiers for this war, but we've seen plenty of videos of Russian soldiers looting grocery stores and some 2nd Motorized Rifle Division troops in Belgorod reportedly weren't provided meals before the invasion either.
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Я уже не могу. Россия - страна, где власть юридически, политически и финансово концентрируется в пользу 1 (одного) человека, а местные аналитики такие «ух, епт, силовики превзошли, башня туда, это сюда, Вайно, Патрушев, это самое, война группировок». Полный дефолт экспертизы.
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Those who make grand arguments about the Russians based on alleged popular support for the war, I plead you to find some humbleness. In 2003, a country with years of free media, elections, civsoc overwhelmingly supported an unjust war that shook the world.
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Today I signed my 1st book contract. Quite a way for a school student who just read the news in 2010/2011 and thought, "why the heck does the military hate the minister of defense, while the civilians also hate the military?" That’s how it all started for me (+Snow Revolution)
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Melnikova is doing propaganda again. I actually interviewed Solders’ Mothers committees for my PhD research. This is NOT the first war when not all mothers want to actively save their kids on their own. It happened in Chechnya as well. 1/
I highly recommend this fragment of Russian human rights defender Olga Romanova.
“This is a very unusual war… We have been speaking with Valentina Melnikova from Committee of Soldiers' Mothers, she says this is the first war in her life when mothers do not come to her. 1/2
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I applied for a UK visit visa 50 days before the BASEES conference in April. Then the war broke out. I participated online, we had an interesting panel. Today they rejected my application because the purpose of visit might not be genuine or because I might not leave the UK. Lmao.
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Russian shops are warning customers that Google Pay and Apple Pay may not work anymore
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