Tut C🅰️pital
@kingtutcap
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Disruptive tech enthusiast. Critical and sarcastic thinker. Graduate from the school of life. Not financial or investment advice.
Joined December 2020
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I’ve finally gathered all my thoughts to create a comprehensive investment thesis for AST SpaceMobile $ASTS, so here we go:
$ASTS is poised to revolutionize global connectivity with its unique satellite-to-cell technology. As the first company to develop a space-based cellular
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If you thought the Trump Media & Tech Group’s merger was funny, check the company’s overview presentation.
TMTG plans to compete with Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Disney, and Hulu.
Full deck here: $DWAC
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$IPOE/
@SoFi
Announces Q1 ‘21 Record Results 📈
- +430k members (biggest ever growth)
- 2.3M members total (+110% YoY)
- 3.2M total products used (+121% YoY)
- Galileo hits 70M accounts (+130% YoY)
- Net Revenue of $216M ~14% beat (+151% YoY)
- EBITDA +
- Reiterates 2021 guidance
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$ASTS Launch Week Reflections:
I couldn’t hide my happiness the past few days when I saw the launch invites rolling out and people celebrating on Twitter as if they won the Mega Millions lottery or a Willy Wonka Golden Ticket.
As I mentioned recently, the company's decision to
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@chamath
Some amazing takeaways from my Q2 SPAC portfolio:
1) 28% of purchases are down.
2) 50% of purchases are shorted to death.
3) Research suggests that I’m getting a margin call very soon.
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So Robinhood will IPO at a $40bn valuation with ~$682m of revenue in 2020 but you still think SPACs are the problem.
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$CCIV/
@LucidMotors
one more piece of detective work.
The Lucid rumor was leaked from Saudi Arabia.
The two non-US Bloomberg reporters (Dinesh & Matthew) weren't involved in any prior SPAC-related news.
They cover all Saudi/PIF related news and are always spot on.
Thread ⬇️🧵
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General Motor’s due diligence is just something else $NKLA $RIDE
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To all the new SPAC investors/traders, please know that we sacrificed ourselves for you over the last 8 months. You’re welcome.
- The FinTwit SPAC Squad
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The sooner you realize that $ASTS has at least a 5-year head start over their closest competitor in the direct-to-cell space, the sooner you’ll grasp the size of this potential monopolistic opportunity.
$ASTS more or less invented the direct-to-cell space from scratch in 2017.
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$ASTS: Really good interview with JR Wilson (AT&T VP of Tower Strategy) on WSAZ TV - Sep 23.
Key Points:
- AST has the most advanced, sophisticated, and high capacity satellites in orbit
- BB1 launch was a massive milestone for AT&T
- Anticipate AST to be a mass market product
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@jimcramer
Hey Jim, I sold all my Bitcoin two weeks ago when you told me, now it’s up 30%. What should I do?
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🧵 Thread: Why Starlink's direct-to-cell capabilities is falling behind, further strengthening AST SpaceMobile's $ASTS early mover advantage.
The market isn’t fully considering the possibility that Starlink’s direct-to-cell service might fall short or even fail entirely.
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In its latest FCC filing, SpaceX is saying $ASTS is a meme-stock and their investors are spreading misinformation ☠️
“Foreign investors and partners in AST’s meme-stock are stopping at nothing to slow progress. AST and its investors continue their scorched-Earth campaign to
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Love FinTwit to death but I beg enough with the "I called $CCIV at xx" tweets flooding the timeline.
Calling $CCIV at $11/12 after a Bloomberg report (when literally anyone with decent knowledge knows the only two legit Tesla competitors are Lucid and Rivian) is NOT a call.
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I’ll be off Twitter for a bit.
It’s become too toxic for my taste right now. Need some time to disconnect.
Truly wish everyone the best 🙏
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Shoutout to all the SPAC focused Twitter accounts that are still alive after the Feb-May massacre. We lost a lot of good ones out there.
You da real MVPs.
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$ASTS: Communications specialist at HM Forces (His Majesty's Armed Forces, refers to the British military 🇬🇧):
“I cannot wait to see how the BlueBirds progress and to hopefully develop a capability that NATO’s Supreme Allied Command Transformation can look to embrace in the near
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Final thoughts on $ASTS mixed shelf:
The timing couldn’t be any better with the upcoming launch next week. By doing it now, the news will likely fade by tomorrow or Monday, allowing the stock to continue uptrend momentum leading up to the launch. A successful launch could then
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$ASTS promotional video to the Japanese market from
@AbelAvellan
appearance with Rakuten CEO Hiroshi Mikitani at Rakuten Optimism Conference 2024
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Full $ASTS Q2 2024 Earnings Summary (courtesy of
@defiantclient
)
Highlights from Press Release
- Initial Block 2 BlueBird planning and production of 17 satellites underway
- Expect initial nationwide, non-continuous service to be available with AT&T and Verizon beta test users
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Why an
@EximBankUS
funding for $ASTS is only a matter of time 💰
EXIM plays a vital role in supporting U.S. exports by providing financial assistance to US-based companies and their international buyers.
Thread 🧵
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$ASTS
SpaceX: “AST is now taking its misinformation campaign oversees by recruiting its European investors and partners to parrot its talking points and harm competition there as well.”
It’s European investors:
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Kudos to $ASTS management for providing retail shareholders the chance to attend next week's launch, while also managing the most important milestone in the company’s history.
Their organization of all logistics, from transportation to the viewing site, completely free of
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In the last 72 hours,
@chamath
has been targeted by hit piece after hit piece to a degree that raises suspicion.
He’s no angel but he’s also not the root of all Wall Street evil.
We never saw anything on Citadel’s Griffin or Melvin’s Plotkin? Steve Cohen?
Fuck biased media.
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Okay Nanalyze, I'll finally bite.
You've been putting out nonstop clickbait tweets to engage with $ASTS and whenever anyone responds you mute the person because "they can't add value to the conversation".
So I'm super curious to see what kind of value have you added to the
What do $RKLB and $ASTS have in common? They're both being pumped by a bunch of agro tool bags who can't add value to a conversation. Guys. The sacred cow bs doesn't fly. It never has. Learn how to be critical of a stock you really like and maybe you'll be wealthy some day.
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If you don’t have a stock in your portfolio that’s down 5-10% today, you’re either a value investor or Nancy Pelosi.
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$CCIV ▶️ $LCID
What a journey it’s been in SPAC land.
From stalking private jets, to random LinkedIn connections, to watching Saudi Arabian Economic forums
You were the pinnacle of SPAC hysteria top and Hollywood type FinTwit drama and emotions.
You’ll be missed 🖤
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🔎 $RTP/
@hippo_insurance
: SaaS harnessing AI to revolutionize the home insurance industry 🦛🏠
- Everything you need to know
- One-stop-shop for all things smart/connected home
- Higher growth & revenue than closest public competitor $LMND/
@Lemonade_Inc
Time for a thread 🧵⬇️
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How I play SPACs:
1) Diversify across multiple holdings and reallocate based on performance (cut losers, trim winners, feed ones closer to NAV)
2) Buy early in the $10-12 range and hold. I've got all the time to wait.
3) I rarely day trade. 95% swinging.
4) Momentum + Catalysts
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The $ASTS reversal in the coming weeks will be one for the history books 🧘🏼♂️
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$ASTS recruits former Lockheed Martin $LMT executive as their new Test Director.
With the company ramping up its commercialization efforts, attracting and retaining top talent is going to become easier.
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“COVID Surge”
Markets: meh
“BLM Protests”
Markets: meh
“Trump Impeachment”
Markets: meh
“Presidential Elections”
Markets: meh
“Capital Hill Storming”
Markets: meh
“Reddit v Hedge Funds”
Markets: meh
“Chamath fucking some shit up”
Markets: Ok it’s time
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Fairwinds Technologies highlights $ASTS in their latest partner spotlight 🇺🇸
“Fairwinds collaborates with AST to article solutions that enable the warfighter to executive their missions, where they may go. Connect radios, computers, smartphones, and other devices to your LAN
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$ASTS: Back in 2017, he had this crazy idea: connect satellites directly to everyday devices to bring broadband internet to everyone. They laughed, said it was impossible, defies the laws of physics, and bound to fail.
But he got Vodafone and Rakuten on board as founding
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$ASTS: From Midland Texas factory floor to Low Earth Orbit deployment in 70 days 🚀
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This is the most bullish ER call for $ASTS since they went public.
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Yeah sex is cool but have you ever bought a SPAC near NAV and watch it double on the day of target announcement.
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I’m never going to explicitly tell you to buy, hold, or sell a stock.
I’m never going to tell you diamond or paper hands, get in before it’s too late, or give price targets.
However... I’m always going to advocate for risk/reward management, knowledge sharing, and education.
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$ASTS: Whatever comes next for Chris Sambar, his impact on AST SpaceMobile will never be forgotten.
From buying into Abel Avellan’s concept 7 years ago when it was just sketches on paper, vouching for them internally at AT&T, being vocal in the media and at industry conferences
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At this point, if I buy any more of $AVAN I might as well join their board of directors...
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NOT A JOKE!
Trump Media and Technology group to merge with Digital World Acquisition Corp $DWAC at an $875 valuation.
Trump Media’s mission is to “create a rival to the liberal media consortium and fight back against “Big Tech” companies of Silicon Valley.
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Looking at today’s valuations, Facebook’s $1 billion acquisition of Instagram has to go down as the best bargain of all time.
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As one big institutional investor said at the launch, whether you invest at $5, $10, $20, or $30, by the end of the decade, this will seem like a small blip in the rearview mirror. $ASTS
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There's a special place in hell for pumpers who consciously know the amount of emotional and financial harm they've done and continue to do to inexperienced investors all for their own personal gains.
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The big data analytics company $PLTR Technologies has quietly become an aggressive investor in companies going public via SPACs.
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🚨 $FTOC/
@Payoneer
: The next PayPal?
- Payment processing company for B2C & B2B
- Operates in 200 countries + total of 1,500 employees
- $300m in revenue (2019)
- $2.5 bn valuation (Bloomberg)
- Customers include Airbnb, Walmart, Amazon, & Google
Time for a thread! ⬇️
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@jimcramer
Hey Jim, I went all in 5x leverage on SPY puts on Monday after you said not to buy the dip and a crash is imminent. Thanks for another great call!
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Not a single insider sell since going public. ZERO. NIL. NADA.
Founder does not take a salary.
Talk about skin in the game $ASTS
A nice reminder that the man driving $ASTS does not take a salary. Abel is making all of his money alongside shareholders through his stock ownership. This is what leadership looks like. Invest behind owner-operators with great vision and the ability to attract a great team.
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$AGC is not just based on short interest squeeze etc..
Grab is the Super App for Southeast Asia = mobility + food delivery + fintech.
+ backed by one of the best VC’s in the world in
@altcap
.
+ one of the best SPAC structures in the market (3-year lockup) & $500M backstop.
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There’s a special place in hell for people who are tweeting about one specific company, then add 10-15 random tickers at the end just to extend the reach.
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For those panicking about $SOFI earnings price action, this is what another growth FinTech play looks like $SQ
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Meant to take a longer break but was overwhelmed and grateful for all the mentions/messages over the past 2 days.
Though I'll limit the time spent, I'll do my best to block all the noise and double down on factual education & knowledge sharing. Only way to make a real impact.
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$SOFI Q2 Earnings:
- Revenue up 101% ($237M vs $215-220M guidance)
- Members up 113% to 2.6M
- Products up 123% to 3.7M
- Galileo accounts up to 79M
- Q3 Revenue guidance at $245-255
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AST SpaceMobile’s Commercial Satellites Arrive at Cape Canaveral For Upcoming Launch $ASTS
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GUESS WHO’S BACK, BACK AGAIN.
SPACS ARE BACK. TELL A FRIEND.
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@jimcramer
There are good stocks and bad stocks but if you can really talk about 20 different stocks across non-related industries everyday, to me it’s preposterous. When do you actually do your research and not take things on face value?
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$ASTS One of the key elements for ExIm funding is US companies must be exporting their goods and services to other parts of the world, and in many cases developing nations in Africa, Asia, and South America.
Another interesting find that went unnoticed last April 26.
The US
$ASTS: wow the timing all lines up. 👀
“We are actively underwriting $800 million worth of space transactions as we speak,” Ex-Im first vice president and vice chair Judith Pryor said during a World Satellite Business Week panel in Paris.”
“Requests for financial support are
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I've seen many comments talking about Starlink vs $ASTS so I wanted to shed some more light on the competition.
Since being founded in 2017, AST has been singularly focused on developing space-based cellular connectivity for years. This early entry has allowed them to:
- Refine
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Reminder: Abel Avellan has not sold a single share when his stock went from $2-$39 and was technically a billionaire on paper $ASTS
Palantir Insider Trading Alert 🚨
CEO Alexander Karp just sold $325.6 million worth of $PLTR
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Since the pop of the SPAC bubble, I’ve been trying to identify one company to go long with fun money and has the potential to 50x (or zero) in the next 5-10 years.
Criteria:
- Blue Ocean tech
- Cheap valuation
- Cult following riding highs/lows
$ASTS — see you in sp🅰️ce! 🛰️📱
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How many fucking times are we gonna hype inflated and bloated IPOs that open 50-100% up and take the entire market down with it?
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Abel Avellan on $ASTS retail investors with
@MorganLBrennan
:
“I’m super proud. I was moved by seeing people wake up at 2am in the morning. There were many buses that joined us for the launch. For them it’s not just an investment, it’s a collaboration to change the world for
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🚨 My next big bet: $LUXA/Lux Health Tech Acquisition Corp.
- Led by
@Lux_Capital
(
@wolfejosh
&
@peterjhebert
) targeting a health-tech biz.
- $345m raised
- Team of serial entrepreneurs, inventors, renowned doctors, & investors
*Current Price: $10.94
Time for a thread 🧵⬇️
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$ASTS:
@chrissambar
(Head of AT&T Network) interview with
@PCMag
post BB1 launch key takeaways:
- Sambar successfully tested the technology with BlueWalker3 test satellite, achieving stable phone calls with a 21Mbps download rate. Dallas to Hana (Hawaii). "Very stable
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🚨 Why $RTP/Reinvent Tech Partners is my largest pre-target SPAC holding!
- Led by Reid Hoffman & Mark Pincus
- Prolific VCs & serial entrepreneurs
- $690 million raised
- Targeting tech sector (AI, autonomous driving, gaming focus)
*Current Price: $11.90
Time for a thread! ⬇️
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BREAKING: CNBC declares SPAC boom over. We can all go home now.
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September 20: Jim Cramer says don’t buy the dip. $SPY bottoms.
September 22: Jim Cramer begs you to sell your crypto. $BTC up more than 50%.
October 19: Jim Cramer tweets “No more SPACs.” SPACs bottomed.
Yes, it’s that easy.
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Chamath drama aside, $IPOE/
@SoFi
is really the highest quality company to SPAC in the last 12 months.
Many SPACs are really solid on the long-term IF multiple things materialize and come to fruition, but SoFi is both a short-term and long-term winner.
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$DIDI (biggest IPO in 2021) is down 52% and $COIN (biggest DL in 2021) is down 38% since listing but yeah fuck SPACs.
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🚨 $VYGG/VY Global Growth: A star-studded SPAC with global focus and outreach in Europe & Asia.
- $500m raised
- Led by Alexander Tamas (VY Capital)
- Team of seasoned international Silicon Valley entrepreneurs
- Targeting tech/internet businesses
Time for a thread 🧵⬇️
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$ASTS: The two largest MNOs in the USA 🇺🇸 both submitted filings to the FCC on the same day opposing SpaceX’s request for a waiver to exceed the established Out-of-Band Emission (OOBE) limits.
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$ASTS: Starlink direct-to-cell MNO partners Optus (Australia) and One NZ (New Zealand) have both removed from their websites that service will start in late 2024 and left it open ended.
Before & After:
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$ASTS Sp🅰️ceMob finally getting the media attention it deserves.
@FierceNetwork_
:
“It’s not every day that investors are so stoked about a company that they’ll travel thousands of miles to witness a satellite launch. But that’s what happened this week with AST SpaceMobile’s
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$ASTS partner and U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) prime contractor Fairwinds Technologies celebrating the historic BB1 launch 🇺🇸🚀
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You hear about founder-led companies and having skin in the game but
@AbelAvellan
takes it to a whole new level with $ASTS
1) Invested his own money in the company’s Series B
2) Takes zero salary
3) Has not sold a single share since going public
4) Holds majority % ownership
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Also it’s so messed up that they’ve used the word foreign over 20x in the letter.
“foreign investors” “foreign entities” “US sovereignty” “European allies”.
This is the misinformation in itself and scare tactics 101.
Try to label $ASTS as a foreign company while SpaceX is Made
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