Julien Guyon
@julienguyon1977
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French mathematician, football fan, photographer, biker, hiker, runner, globe-trotter and raspberry lover. Professor at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech
Paris, France
Joined May 2014
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Here are the EXACT
#draw
#probabilities
for the round of 16 of the
#ChampionsLeague
. Bayern-Liverpool most likely matchup; Porto-PSG and Benfica-Brugge least likely
20
62
233
Borussia M'Gladbach est l'adversaire le plus probable du PSG en 8emes de finale de Ligue des champions (19.4%). Voici le tableau complet des VRAIES probabilites (400 000 simulations du tirage suivant la procedure officielle UEFA, erreur < 0.1%)
@AfterRMC
@ManuBojan
@RMCsport
15
71
128
The draw pots are now known! And here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for
#USA
(+/- 0.3%) based on 100,000 simulations of the official procedure
#Qatar2022
#FIFAWorldCup
#WorldCupDraw
9
28
92
Here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for
#Poland
(+/- 0.3%) based on 100K simulations of the official procedure, assuming Mexico & USA qualify directly. Two pot scenarios are considered depending on whether Canada will be in Pot 3 or 4
#Qatar2022
#WorldCupDraw
1
15
92
Here are the CORRECT
#draw
#probabilities
for the round of 16 of the
#ChampionsLeague
, based on 2,000,000 simulations of the OFFICIAL DRAW PROCEDURE (which is quite complicated). Man City-Atletico is the most likely matchup: 28.2% followed closely by Man City-Schalke 04!
7
33
74
@2010MisterChip
@VillarrealCF
Aquí las probabilidades correctas (soy matemático profesional). Tu error es que no tomas en cuenta el modo secuencial del sorteo, que es muy importante para calcular las probabilidades correctas, como lo explico aquí :
3
7
74
Happy to share that my paper "Risk of Collusion: Will Groups of 3 Ruin the FIFA World Cup?" has won the 2nd prize at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Thanks to the jurors for rewarding tournament design research! Paper in free access ⬇️
#SSAC21
8
13
72
La
#Ligue1
, c'est fini pour 2019-20. Voici le
#classement
final que je propose, qui corrige certains biais du classement actuel (force des adversaires & nb de matchs à domicile/extérieur restant à jouer). J'explique ma méthode ici :
@ggaretier
@ManuBojan
5
16
64
Why groups of 3 will ruin the World Cup. I explain it in The New York Times.
#WorldCup
#worldcup2026
4
26
65
Here are the exact
#draw
#probabilities
for the round of 16 of the
#ChampionsLeague
if Villarreal advances. Chelsea-Real most likely matchup; Benfica-Ajax, Sporting-Bayern least likely
@lequipedusoir
@RMCsport
@FourFourTwo
@ManuBojan
10
32
56
The draw pots are now known! And here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for
#Poland
(+/- 0.3%) based on 100,000 simulations of the official procedure
#Qatar2022
#FIFAWorldCup
#WorldCupDraw
3
8
44
Note that Bayern-Liverpool is very likely: 37%+ probability! Bayern is the most likely opponent of PSG, but PSG is the least likely opponent of Bayern. Ah, the beauty of maths :)
3
0
42
1) In 2014 in this paper I had urged FIFA to adopt pots by level rather than geographic pots for the
#WorldCupDraw
to ensure well-balanced groups
3
1
38
Made the final of the
#WorldCup
in the last 20 years:
Ont atteint la finale de la
#CoupeDuMonde
ces 20 dernieres annees :
#FRA
x 3
#BRA
x 2
#GER
x 2
#ITA
x 1
#ESP
x 1
#HOL
x 1
#ARG
x 1
#ENG
or
#CRO
x 1
@ggaretier
@OliverKayTimes
#FRABEL
2
17
36
Here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for
#Brazil
(+/- 0.3%) based on 100K simulations of the official procedure, assuming Mexico & USA qualify directly. Two pot scenarios are considered depending on whether Canada will be in Pot 3 or 4
#Qatar2022
#FIFAWorldCup
2
3
38
1) La
#Ligue2
, c'est fini pour cette saison. Voici le
#classement
final attendu, qui corrige certains biais du classement actuel (force des adversaires & nb de matchs à domicile/extérieur restant à jouer). J'explique ma méthode ici :
@ggaretier
@ManuBojan
10
20
33
@2010MisterChip
Once again, wrong reasoning and wrong numbers. Here are the correct ones. I explained how to compute them here in El Pais:
3
5
32
Voici les VRAIES
#probabilites
du
#tirage
des 8e de finale de la
#liguedeschampions
sur la base d'1M de simulations (+/- erreur statistique). ATL & CHE adversaires les + probables du
#PSG
, ATA & NAP les - prob. Pour
#Lyon
, BCN & VAL les + prob, BAY le - prob.
@ggaretier
4
9
32
Voici les VRAIES
#probas
du
#tirage
des 8e de finale de la
#liguedeschampions
sur la base d'1M de simulations (+/- erreur statistique). ATL & CHE adversaires les + probables du
#PSG
, ATA & NAP les - prob. Pour
#Lyon
, BCN & VAL les + prob, BAY le - prob.
@ManuBojan
@lequipe
8
21
30
The draw pots are now known! And here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for
#Morocco
(+/- 0.3%) based on 100,000 simulations of the official procedure
#Qatar2022
#FIFAWorldCup
#WorldCupDraw
2
6
27
UPDATE WITH 1M SIMULATIONS Here are the CORRECT
#draw
#probabilities
for the round of 16 of the
#ChampionsLeague
based on 1M simuls of the REAL draw procedure (up to sampling error). Real-Leipzig most likely (30.4%). Liverpool or Chelsea-Porto least likely (10.6%)
@martynziegler
3
13
26
Here are the *correct*
#draw
#probabilities
of the knockout round playoff of the
@UEFA
@EuropaLeague
🤓 NEW: play with the draw simulator and use the live probability calculator during the actual draw!
3
14
28
Ligue des champions : pourquoi les « TV pairings » ont artificiellement augmenté la probabilité d’un PSG-Real. J'explique ça dans
@lemondefr
. Merci
@lemonde_sport
!
#TirageLDC
#PSG
#psgreal
@ggaretier
@DanielRiolo
@DidierRoustan
1
14
27
Il y a 4 ans j'appelais la
#FIFA
à changer les règles injustes du tirage au sort du Mondial. Je proposais des solutions. Pari réussi ! La FIFA a entendu le message et la
#CoupeDuMonde2018
est plus équitable. Je raconte l'aventure dans The Conversation
0
17
24
With Villarreal advancing, here are the CORRECT and EXACT
#draw
#probabilities
for the round of 16 of the
#ChampionsLeague
. Chelsea-Real most likely matchup; Benfica-Ajax, Sporting-Bayern least likely
3
5
24
Ah the beauty of
#probabilities
! For the
#draw
of the round of 16 of the
#ChampionsLeague
, the most likely opponent of
#ManUnited
is PSG (up to 0.1%), but the most likely opponent of
#PSG
is Atletico, but the most likely opponent of
#Atletico
is
#ManCity
. Wonderful!
6
9
24
Bonjour
@lequipedusoir
! Voici les (vraies) probabilités du tirage au sort de la Ligue des champions. Real, adversaire le + probable du
@PSG_inside
. Chelsea, du
@losclive
.
2
4
25
Assuming a Champions League-like draw, here are the
#probabilities
of
#FIFA
#WorldCup2018
#draw
for
#Denmark
, based on 100,000 simulations. You can measure the impact of the geographic constraints.
#WorldCup
#Russia2018
0
17
20
Ce soir, sur la saison de Coupes d'Europe 2021-22, la France est 3e du coefficient UEFA (6,416 pts), derrière P-B et Angleterre. Déjà quasiment aussi bien que sur l'ensemble de la saison dernière (7,916) ! Et mieux que le Portugal (5,75), concurrent direct
@ManuBojan
@RMCsport
0
10
22
#FIFA
finally announced
#WorldCupDraw
procedure. Here are the draw
#probabilities
for
#England
, based on 100,000 simulations using the official rules. Small fluctuations due to finite nb of simulations. Watch the impact of geographic constraints + how they mess up with Russia
6
12
21
Here are the
#draw
#probabilities
for the round of 16 of the
#ChampionsLeague
if Atalanta advances (+/- 0.1%, 1M simulations). Chelsea-Real most likely matchup; Benfica-Ajax, Sporting-Bayern least likely
@lequipedusoir
@RMCsport
@FourFourTwo
@ManuBojan
0
12
18
The draw pots are now known! And here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for
#France
(+/- 0.3%) based on 100,000 simulations of the official procedure
#Qatar2022
#FIFAWorldCup
#WorldCupDraw
1
6
18
LOOOOOOOL
MBappé ça va tellement vite. Il y a 2 ans il s'appelait Taylor Moore et jouait à Lens. Daniel Lauclair sait de quoi il parle.
111
3K
4K
0
9
18
Many people have asked me why the
#draw
#probabilities
of the
#ChampionsLeague
round of 16 vary so much and how I computed them. So I wrote this. Hope this helps! I'm happy to answer questions if some things remain unclear :)
#ChampionsLeaguedraw
2
5
18
My article "The joint S&P 500/VIX
#smile
#calibration
puzzle solved" was published in the April issue of Risk. A longstanding issue finally solved!
Preprint:
#sp500
#vix
#quant
#trading
#options
#OptionsTrading
#cboe
#volatility
0
5
18
Here are the
#draw
#probabilities
for the playoff of the
#EuropaLeague
(+/- 0.2%, based on 400,000 simulations). Runners-up of Europa League group stage play 3rd-place teams from
#ChampionsLeague
group stage
#UEL
#UELdraw
0
5
18
@2010MisterChip
Alexis, es quasi correcto pero no son las probabilidades exactas. Aqui las probabilidades correctas, basadas sobre 400,000 simulaciones de la PROCEDURA OFICIAL, que es un poco complicada (error: +- 0.1%) No basta calcular casos favorables/casos posibles porque el sorteo no es asi
4
3
16
The draw pots are now known! So here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for the
#USA
(+/- 0.3%) based on 100,000 simulations of the official procedure
#Qatar2022
#FIFAWorldCup
#WorldCupDraw
@UpshotNYT
@nytimes
3
5
18
Our street tonight, 12th St & 4th Ave, Manhattan. The fire was just in front of
#Strand
#protests2020
#BlackLivesMatter
#protests
#nyc
#nycprotests
3
7
17
1) UPDATE WITH OFFICIAL TV PAIRINGS: Here are the
#UCLdraw
#probabilities
for Pots 1 & 2 based on 4K simulations of the official procedure, incl. TV pairings (see below). Small probability variations due to sampling error.
#ChampionsLeague
#draw
2
2
17
Bayern, adversaire le plus probable du
@PSG_inside
en 8e de finale de la Ligue des Champions (19,5%). Mais le PSG est aussi l'adversaire le moins probable du Bayern (avec Bruges) ! Real et Porto, adversaires les moins probables du PSG
@lequipe
@lequipedusoir
@AfterRMC
@RMCsport
0
1
16
Here are the exact
#draw
#probabilities
for Pots 1 & 2 of the
#WorldCup2022
, assuming MEX and USA directly qualify, which is likely.
1
3
16
@2010MisterChip
Hey, your calculations are still wrong, as I explained 2 years ago in El Pais
@ElPaisDeportes
Here are the CORRECT probabilities, based on 1000000 simulations of the OFFICIAL draw procedure (up to sampling error)
1
1
17
Very happy that my long fight for a better & fairer format for the 2026 World Cup is finally paying off! I contacted FIFA several years ago to alert them about the problems posed by groups of 3, and thank God they now seem ready to move to a better format.
2
1
16
Groupe compliqué en perspective pour les
#Bleus
: la
#France
sera dans le pot 2 du
#tirage
de l'
#EURO2020
et tombera forcément contre Italie (A), Angleterre (D), Espagne (E) ou Allemagne (F).
@ggaretier
@equipedefrance
Gpe B : Belgique Russie Danemark
Gpe C : Ukraine Pays-Bas
5
21
15
Here are the exact
#draw
#probabilities
for the playoff of the
#EuropaLeague
. Runners-up of Europa League group stage play 3rd-place teams from
#ChampionsLeague
group stage. Probabilities do not vary much
#UEL
#UELdraw
4
2
15
Here are the CORRECT
#draw
#probabilities
for the round of 16 (playoff) of the
#EuropaLeague
. Runners-up of Europa League group stage play 3rd-place teams from
#ChampionsLeague
group stage.
@Atalanta_BC
-
@RealSociedadEN
and Atalanta-
@RealBetis_en
most likely matchups
2
0
16
UPDATE WITH 65K SIMULATIONS Here are the
#UCLdraw
#probabilities
for Pots 1 & 2 based on 65K sim of the official UEFA procedure, incl. TV pairings. Small probability variations due to sampling error (eg, Juve-PSG-Porto should have exactly the same columns)
#ChampionsLeague
#draw
1
1
16
Comment calcule-t-on les probabilités du tirage au sort des 8e de finale de Ligue des Champions ? Pourquoi varient-elles autant ? Quelles sont les erreurs de raisonnement classiques à éviter ? J'explique tout ça dans
@lemondefr
@ggaretier
#TirageLDC
5
2
15
Here are the exact
#draw
#probabilities
for the playoff of the
#EuropaConferenceLeague
. Runners-up of ECL group stage play 3rd-place teams from
#EuropaLeague
group stage. The exact fractions are 1/7 ~ 14.29 and 6/49 ~ 12.24
#UECL
#UECLdraw
3
0
14
The draw pots are now known! And here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for
#Serbia
(+/- 0.3%) based on 100,000 simulations of the official procedure
#Qatar2022
#FIFAWorldCup
#WorldCupDraw
2
4
14
Borussia M'Gladbach est l'adversaire le plus probable du PSG en 8emes de finale de Ligue des champions (19.4%). Voici le tableau complet des VRAIES probabilites (400 000 simulations du tirage suivant la procedure officielle UEFA, erreur < 0.1%)
@lequipedusoir
4
5
13
Dans 19 ans, pour la 20ème édition de la conférence Football et Data, je pourrai crâner et dire que j’étais le 1er speaker de la 1ère édition 🧢🧢🧢
#OptaX
@Polytechnique
@FX_EP
@MatRosenbaum
@OptaJean
0
3
12
L’adversaire de loin le plus probable du
#PSG
dans le pot 2 est
#Tottenham
. Le PSG a environ 1 chance sur 5 de tomber sur Tottenham, vu que les Spurs ne peuvent pas tomber contre ManCity, Liverpool et Chelsea (pot 1)
#UCLdraw
#TirageLDC
#ChampionsLeaguedraw
@ggaretier
4
3
14
Happy to share my new article Dispersion-Constrained Martingale Schrödinger Problems and the Exact Joint S&P 500/VIX Smile Calibration Puzzle. A follow-up on my Risk 2020 article with new theorems, proofs, and analysis.
#SP500
#VIX
#derivatives
#quant
1
3
13
Here are the EXACT
#draw
#probabilities
for the round of 16 of the
#ChampionsLeague
if Atalanta advances. Chelsea-Real most likely matchup; Benfica-Ajax, Sporting-Bayern least likely
@lequipedusoir
@RMCsport
@FourFourTwo
@ManuBojan
@AfterRMC
1
8
13
Very happy to give a talk at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference this Friday at 11am ET. I'll be talking about the risk of collusion in the new World Cup format with groups of 3 that FIFA plans to use in 2026. Hope to see some sports nerds there! :)
#ssac21
#showmethedata
0
1
11
Here are the *correct*
#draw
#probabilities
of the round of 16 of the
@UEFA
@ChampionsLeague
🤓 NEW: play with the draw simulator and use the live probability calculator during the actual draw!
3
3
12
After my
@nytimes
article on the risk of
#collusion
in the new
#WorldCup
format (16 groups of 3, in 2026), readers have suggested solutions.
@MonkovicNYT
compiled them, I comment on their feasibility & propose another one. What do you think?
@united2026
1
9
11
La France jouera donc contre l'Italie a Rome (groupe A), l'Angleterre a Wembley (D), l'Espagne a Bilbao (E), ou l'Allemagne a Munich (F). Un beau choc a l'exterieur en perspective ! LE choc de la phase de poules
#EURO2020
#tirageEuro2020
@ggaretier
@JeuneGuillou
@johanncrochet
0
2
11
Si j'etais
#ENG
ou
#BEL
je prefererais finir 2e du groupe G. Le 2e du groupe aura un parcours beaucoup plus facile que le 1er ! L'Angleterre se mord peut-etre les doigts d'avoir marque autant de buts contre le Panama...
#Mondial2018
@ggaretier
2
5
9
I’m very happy and proud to present for the first time a solution to the Joint SPX/VIX Smile Calibration Puzzle at
#QuantMinds
in Vienna. A longstanding issue finally solved! :)) Paper available soon on
#SSRN
.
#quant
#vix
#SP500
#spx
#calibration
1
0
10
Final
#standings
of the English
#PremierLeague
? Here was my suggestion. It removes bias of current rankings due to strength of remaining opponents & remaining home/away games. Note: it does NOT pretend to be predictive.
@martynziegler
@OliverKay
1
6
10
1) Here are the
#UCLdraw
#probabilities
for Pots 1 & 2 based on 25K simulations of the official
@UEFAcom
procedure, incl. TV pairings. Most likely matchups:
#LiverpoolFC
vs
#FCBarcelona
or
#AtleticoMadrid
. Small probability variations due to sampling error.
#ChampionsLeague
#draw
4
1
11
Here are the CORRECT
#draw
#probabilities
for the round of 16 of the
#ChampionsLeague
, based on 4,000,000 simulations of the OFFICIAL DRAW PROCEDURE (which is quite complicated). Watch how likely Barcelona-Chelsea is: 41.3%! Then PSG-CHE & BES-CHE at 29.4%
2
20
10
@Belile81
@ggaretier
@nglkante
@infosportplus
@MarinaLorenzo_
Je viens de publier les probabilités ici ;)
2
13
10
#UCLdraw
These are the
#probabilities
of today's
#draw
for pots 1 & 2 based on 50K simulations of the official UEFA procedure, including TV pairings.
1
6
11
Here are the CORRECT
#draw
#probabilities
for the round of 16 of the
#ChampionsLeague
based on 400K simulations of the REAL draw procedure (up to sampling error). Real-Leipzig most likely (30.5%). Liverpool or Chelsea-Porto least likely (10.6%).
@ManuBojan
@FourFourTwo
1
5
11
All teams of the Group of Death are already out! France, Germany, Portugal, Hungary
#EURO2020
2
4
11
Here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for the
#Wales
v. [
#Scotland
v.
#Ukraine
] playoff winner (+/- 0.4%) assuming the pots below, based on 40,000 simulations of the official procedure
#Qatar2022
#FIFA
#FIFAWorldCup
3
0
9
The draw pots are now known! And here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for
#Denmark
(+/- 0.3%) based on 100,000 simulations of the official procedure
#Qatar2022
#FIFAWorldCup
#WorldCupDraw
0
1
10
2) Of course you need good rankings for building pots by level. I had also urged FIFA to adopt Elo ratings for their FIFA rankings at the time, which they did in August 2018.
3
0
11
Comment décider du classement final de la
#Ligue1
si elle ne pouvait pas reprendre ? Il faut bien sûr tenir compte des calendriers plus ou moins difficiles des équipes. Voici ce que je propose. MHSC serait 6e. Merci
@lemondefr
!
@ggaretier
@ManuBojan
4
2
8
Poland first ever relegated team in the UEFA Nations League. They were a seed at the World Cup in June (after avoiding playing friendlies), now they’re in the second division of Europe...
#POLITA
#NationsLeague
1
4
10
Here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for
#Croatia
(+/- 0.3%) based on 100K simulations of the official procedure, assuming Mexico & USA qualify directly. Two pot scenarios are considered depending on whether Canada will be in Pot 3 or 4
#Qatar2022
#WorldCupDraw
0
0
9
@AfterRMC
Voici les
#probabilites
de
#tirage
des 8emes de finale de la
#LigueDesChampions
. Adversaire le + probable pour
@PSG_inside
:
@Atleti
. Le moins probable :
@AFCAjax
. Pour
@OL
, le + probable :
@BVB
ou
@FCBarcelona
. Le moins probable :
@FCPorto
. ManC-Atleti match le + prob
3
3
10
Here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for
#Serbia
(+/- 0.3%) based on 100K simulations of the official procedure, assuming Mexico & USA qualify directly. Two pot scenarios are considered depending on whether Canada will be in Pot 3 or 4
#Qatar2022
#WorldCupDraw
0
1
10
Les deux clubs francais sont tous les deux tombés contre leur adversaire le plus probable !
#TirageLDC
#ChampionsLeagueDraw
2
1
10
UPDATE with 1 million simulations: Here are the
#draw
#probabilities
for the playoff of the
#EuropaLeague
(+/- 0.1%, based on 1M simulations). Runners-up of Europa League group stage play 3rd-place teams from
#ChampionsLeague
group stage
#UEL
#UELdraw
1
4
10
It is fun to note how the
#draw
#probabilities
of the round of 16 of the
#ChampionsLeague
would have changed if UEFA drew group winners first (right) instead of group runners-up (left). The draw procedure matters!
#UCL
#UCLdraw
#Probability
#mathematics
3
0
9
Here are the correct
#draw
#probabilities
for the round of 16 of the
#ChampionsLeague
, based on 400,000 simulations of the OFFICIAL PROCEDURE (which is quite complicated). Error +-0.1%. Watch how likely
@FCBarcelona
-
@ChelseaFC
is! 41%! Then PSG-CHE, BES-CHE at 29%
1
8
8
Si Donetsk & l'Atletico se qualifient demain, voici les
#probas
du
#tirage
au sort des 8e de finale de la
#liguedeschampions
sur la base de 1M simulations (+/- erreur statistique). Valence & Barca sont les 2 adversaires les + probables de l'
@OL
, la Juve le - prob
@ggaretier
#OL
5
3
8
On me demande souvent pourquoi les
#probabilit
és du
#tirage
des 8e de finale de la
#liguedeschampions
peuvent varier autant (pas tellement cette année) et comment je fais pour les calculer. J'ai donc écrit ça. Merci
@lemondefr
!
1
4
8
Here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for the
#USA
(+/- 0.7%) assuming the pots below, based on 10,000 simulations of the official procedure
#Qatar2022
#FIFA
@UpshotNYT
@nytimes
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Here the
#draw
#probabilities
of the
#EuropaLeague
Ro32 now based on 200K simulations of the OFFICIAL PROCEDURE (up to small sampling error). Prob is quite uniform. Sporting vs Espanyol, ManU, Sevilla, Celtic most likely (~8.7%). Salzburg vs Lev, Shak, Olimp least likely (~5.5%)
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I was interviewed by
@RiskDotNet
about volatility modeling and football in the latest episode of their podcast
@Quantcast
. We talked option pricing, path-dependent volatility, SPX-VIX, and World Cup draws and formats. Enjoy!
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The draw pots are now known! And here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for
#Switzerland
(+/- 0.3%) based on 100,000 simulations of the official procedure
#Qatar2022
#FIFAWorldCup
#WorldCupDraw
1
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With Mathieu Rosenbaum, Prof. Ecole polytechnique; Patrick Drahi, pres. of Altice; Asher Cohen, pres. of The Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Myron Scholes, Prof. Stanford, Nobel Prize of Economics 1997; Paul Glasserman, Prof. Columbia; Alex Lipton, Quant of the year 2000
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Women in Science, a day honoring Nicole El Karoui, the “El Karoui” master in Probability and Finance, and promoting women scientists. This is Nicole in her 20s!
#wise
#nicole
#elkaroui
#womeninscience
#sorbonne
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#FIFA
finally announced
#WorldCupDraw
procedure. Here are the draw
#probabilities
for
#Brazil
, based on 100,000 simulations using the official rules. Small fluctuations due to finite nb of simulations. Watch the impact of geographic constraints
#Russia2018
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The draw pots are now known! And here are the
#WorldCup2022
#draw
#probabilities
for
#England
(+/- 0.3%) based on 100,000 simulations of the official procedure
#Qatar2022
#FIFAWorldCup
#WorldCupDraw
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What a fairer 24 team UEFA Euro could look like. My new article was just published in Journal of Sports Analytics (open access to all). UEFA has adopted my "Suggestion 6" (see Table 5) for the new bracket of the
#Euro2020
!
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Many people have asked me why the
#draw
#probabilities
of the
#ChampionsLeague
round of 16 can vary so much and how I computed them. So I wrote this. Hope this helps! I'm happy to answer questions if some things remain unclear :) Thank you
@FourFourTwo
!
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Hi
@sidlowe
here the CORRECT
#ChampionsLeague
#draw
#probabilities
. I explain the calculations (and the common trap into which many people fall) in this article: Can you please retweet? Thanks man!
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Note that the probabilities would have been completely different if Chelsea had not conceded a goal in St Petersburg in injury time!
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