John Pfeffer
@jlppfeffer
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I just published the latest version of “An (Institutional) Investor’s Take on Cryptoassets”
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There are two types of Bitcoin owners. Ones who use it as a safe haven and ones who see it as a speculative risk asset. The ascension of the price of Bitcoin is a function of the process of the latter selling to the former over time, so there are always two opposing currents.1/2
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The problem with responding to bad faith takes like this one is captured by Brandolini's Law. "The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is needed to produce it." And unlike
@RaoulGMI
, my business isn't selling podcast and newsletter subs
For the Bitcoin Maxi’s: when ETH launched it was at 0.0007BTC. 6 years later, it is at 0.07. That is 100x vs BTC over the period you called it a shit coin.
The whole Pfeffer argument of utility value goes to zero has been proven wrong due to network effects
Facts matter. 1/
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I've never been more bullish about
#Bitcoin
. The whole world is now seeing what it's for and why it's important. Its financial value and its value to humanity.
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The former current tends to build relatively steadily and the latter current flips, accelerates and decelerates much faster. At some point, there will be no more speculative holders left to sell, but there’s no upper bound to safe haven buyers. You just have to be patient. 2/2
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Map of the internet in 1973. "Even 12 years after the first message was transmitted on the ARPANET, there were still only 213 computers on the network." Give
#lightningnetwork
some time.
@lightning
#bitcoin
Source:
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Founders of the world: come to
#Uruguay
! Welcoming, stable, secure, democratic, secular, business and tax friendly, great infrastructure, less corrupt than the US, good schools, quality public healthcare, great lifestyle, relevant time zone and a thriving tech sector.
A potential danger to America I didn't consider till now. The Bay Area seems to be less attractive to founders. What if this makes America as a country less attractive to immigrant founders? What if instead of going to another US city, they don't go to the US at all?
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It's my pleasure to make a six-month grant to Antoine Riard to continue working on
#bitcoin
#BTC
#LightningNetwork
open-source development following his residency
@ChaincodeLabs
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Bitcoin spends as much on electricity as Americans spend on Halloween costumes. h/t
@ATabarrok
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The best democratic countries to move to - Business Insider -
#Uruguay
deservedly right at the top of the list! The article doesn’t mention that Uruguay is also super-easy to immigrate to and very tax-friendly. Perfect for tech founders. 🇺🇾💙🤍💛
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We're still in an almost purely speculative phase where there is little signal in price (see SHIB) and are far from anything ressembling a mature state. The forces of protocol competition and the efficient use of protocols by users have just begun to be felt. Let's see in 10 yrs!
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@cryptomanran
Diversifying in crypto is like a world champion poker player hedging her earnings risk by playing slots on the way to the poker table. The way to diversify an investment in Bitcoin is to invest in a sensible portfolio of non-crypto assets.
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Raoul repeatedly misrepresents my paper. To avoid being misled, you should read it for yourselves.
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Bravo and thank you
@Grayscale
for this tremendous support of
@coincenter
’s vital work! I’m delighted to
#jointhematch
with a USD 50,000 donation. Who’s next?
📣
#JoinTheMatch
:
@Grayscale
is picking up the baton from
@krakenfx
. We’re donating $1 million to
@coincenter
and pledging to match up to an additional $1 million in donations through the month of February.
MATCH ME. DONATE. RETWEET. 👇
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Immense admiration for the talented and passionate developers dedicated to building
#bitcoin
. It’s a privilege to support
@meshcollider
, Antoine Riard,
@bitcoinoptech
,
@mitDCI
, dev training...and more to come soon! Please join me in supporting
#btc
development!
As a third year of generous support begins, I would like to say a massive thank you to my sponsor
@jlppfeffer
! John's continued backing has made it possible for me (and many others!) to work on BTC in a financially viable & livable way - without which... 1/4
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This paper was originally an internal investment memo in June 2017 (see first footnote) to decide what to do with our holdings of both BTC and ETH (and other tokens). ETH BTC was trading 0.09-0.15 then and has since fallen to 0.07. Selling ETH for BTC was a stellar trade.
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The problem with following anyone's advice in this space is that most people who take the time to produce content are trying to sell you something, maybe their content, maybe their fund, maybe their token. You have to filter according to their motivations.
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To anyone out there reading this who owns
#GBTC
shares and who hasn't already done so: follow
@DavidFBailey
, visit and get involved.
I am at a loss for words for the trust and support we’ve received. There are so many people and institutions doing their part to help us… this is truly a grassroots campaign and I am honored to be a part of it. We are on the right side of history. We will win.
#freethebitcoin
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I just published “Doubts about the Long-Term Viability of Utility Cryptoassets”
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I also talk about the unique value capture dynamics of the store of value use case, that
#Bitcoin
is so perfectly suited for and continues to dominate.
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Patrick, it was such a pleasure and so much fun to chat. Thank you for inviting me!
I’ve wanted to record a conversation with
@jlppfeffer
since I met him years ago
He’s one of the most interesting people in the investing world
He’s lived, invested, and built things around the globe
I do the podcast for discussions like this
Enjoy!
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👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
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Tokenised BTC and USDT and other stable coins on Ethereum (ie, economic activity denominated in currencies that people actually want to hold being settled on the Ethereum or similar blockchains) are examples of the phenomenon I predicted in my 2017 paper: (1/4)
Tokenized BTC on Ethereum (wBTC, tBTC, etc) is better for the value accrual/capture thesis of
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In 2017 I wrote, "Provided a monetary store of value protocol and the network running it is technically capable of acquitting its function as a monetary store of value (as is the case of
#Bitcoin
), the pace of it reaching its mature equilibrium value is as fast or slow
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I'm so excited to back
@jfnewbery
and
@bitschmidty
alongside Wences Casares in launching this important initiative. Thank you
@sqcrypto
@HRF
@krakenfx
and
@Gemini
for your generous support. If you care about
#BTC
, please join us in supporting
@bitcoinbrink
!
Hello world!
Today we launch Brink, a totally independent nonprofit organization to fund and support open source Bitcoin protocol development.
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#Bitcoin
has to-date been an early-stage tech venture aspiring to be a risk-off monetary store of value. It has traded as a risk-on asset, but there's an accelerating non-linear transition underway as those who see it as risk-on sell it to those who see it as risk-off.
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I anticipated competing smart contract L1s, interoperability and use case specialisation, which is exactly what we see playing out (SOL, DOT, etc.), and how these things limit and erode value capture for individual utility protocol cryptoassets over time. Moats are shallow here.
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Reflecting with family (¡te extrañamos
@tomaspfef
!) over new year’s dinner in
#Uruguay
🇺🇾about what an amazing year 2020 has been. Here’s our list so far. What have we left off?
mRNA tech in action
AlphaFold
CRISPR-Cas9 treatment of inherited genetic disorders and cancer
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THIS. 👇🏼
To think of all the hours I would have saved 6.5 years ago if I’d just written this excellent thread instead of 17 pages. 😂
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
For critical thinking purposes if Wikipedia released a token what should it be worth?
Prob not much
X is the value created for users and Y is the ability of ownership to benefit from X
Long term L1s trend to being free - great for users and no value for token holders
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I don't think I can take another email that opens with "hoping [I'm] safe and healthy in these unprecedented times of uncertainty." Move on, people. Aren't you bored yet? There are so many more interesting things to focus on.
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#Bitcoin
is much easier. It's perfectly suited to the store of value use case, which is both valuable and lends itself to strong value capture. Its product market fit and its leadership are established, but it's still monetising, so still upside. And you may never need to sell.
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¡21 millones de gracias Wences Casares!
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@meshcollider
Mesh, thank you for your incredible commitment and invaluable contributions to
#Bitcoin
!
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An important milestone for
@lightning
and great for
#Bitcoin
! Pfeffer Capital is delighted to be a shareholder in Lightning Labs!
As a new wave of bitcoin adopters sees the cryptocurrency as an investment asset, Lightning Labs just raised $10 million from old-school investors to jumpstart a global economy of people actually SPENDING the cryptocurrency:
via
@ForbesCrypto
@Forbes
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"BTC, USDT, etc, on Ethereum" is consistent with the Ethereum blockchain being useful but ETH not being particularly valuable, which is why you want to own BTC and not ETH. (4/4)
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As you'll see when you read the paper for yourselves, I explicitly talk about a multi-chain world with utility protocol cryptoassets worth hundreds of billions of USD. I also talk about network effects of utility protocols and the value they might create.
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@AriDavidPaul
Come to
#Uruguay
🇺🇾. Super-safe. Better corruption index than US. Small population. Abundant water/agriculture. Good schools and healthcare. Socially stable. Moderate politics. Very biz-friendly. Secular. Legalised abortion, marijuana. Great food and wine. Infinite coastline.
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You can read more about Antoine's interests and work here: Why we may fail Lightning by Antoine Riard
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I think Bitcoin is best approached as a “ready, fire, aim” investment. Focus on sizing your bet based on your risk tolerance and invest. Then you have all the time in the world to learn and adjust your aim (increase or decrease exposure).
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Fidelity® Launches New Company, Fidelity Digital Assets℠ | Business Wire
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#Uruguay
is egalitarian, progressive, secular, open, transparent and inclusive. It's beautiful, with a vibrant capital and endless coastline and countryside. And Uruguayans will be some of the best friends you'll ever have.
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The interesting unanswered question in
@balajis
and
@CryptoHayes
USD 1m
#Bitcion
#btc
/ hyperinflation calls is: when the nominal price of BTC hits USD 1m, what will the BTC price in March 2023 dollars be?
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A great and easy way (and tax deductible for US taxpayers) to support Bitcoin development is to support the MIT Digital Currency Initiative. They do vital work for Bitcoin and are home to Bitcoin core devs Wladimir van der Laan and Cory Fields. Contact
@neha
to contribute.
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@naval
@kacperwikiel
The difference between investing in a company and a utility protocol is: if the company is successful, your equity will likely be valuable whereas, if the protocol is successful, users will likely treat its cryptoasset as working capital and the cryptoasset won’t be valuable.
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Chatting over lunch today with my friend
@BrianMuraresku
about how best to navigate between the Scylla and Charybdis of deferring to experts and established ideas on one hand and gratuitous contrariansim on the other and settled on what seems a reasonable framework.
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If and when...
.
@jlppfeffer
of Pfeffer Capital LP: "Bitcoin is aspiring to be digital gold and when it gets there it will be one or two magnitudes more valuable".
#TheFutureOf
Digital Assets
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Thank you
@jfnewbery
@jamesob
@moneyball
@hrdng
and
@MarcinJachymiak
for rallying the
#bitcoin
#btc
community around this tremendously important and valuable initiative!
@bitcoinoptech
@morcosa
@wences
We're proud to announce the launch of Bitcoin Optech today. We're here to help Bitcoin businesses integrate scaling technology.
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It was an absolute honour and pleasure to hang out on mic with my friends
@MattWalshInBos
and
@nic__carter
!
If you're feeling down about price action this will perk you up. Our longest episode so far, with the one and only John Pfeffer (
@jlppfeffer
).
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America's oldest bank, BNY Mellon, will custody Bitcoin
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Thanks for the thread and list of great ways to support
#Bitcoin
open source development, Lucas! Fully agree! One more excellent way to support Bitcoin development that I’d add to the list is
@bitcoinbrink
(also a 501(c)(3))
If you also want to fund Bitcoin development, other alternatives to MIT DCI are: 1) Directly through BTC or Github Sponsors
You can also add sats bounties to specific pull requests
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Yup
Bitcoin + Solana > Ethereum
It's just common sense
Ethereum is trying to do it all itself. That's how you fail.
Bitcoin will always be safer and more decentralized. Solana will always be faster and cheaper.
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Excellent thread by
@BMBernstein
1/ Investors continue to extol blockchains for "decentralization". But we already have many technologies to do so: IPFS, datproject, Bittorent, etc
What they’re actually promoting blockchains for is the ability to create MLM schemes on-demand with a large supply of greater fools
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But wait, there's more!
#Uruguay
has strong, stable, democratic institutions and rule of law, great public and private education, an excellent public health care system and a better Transparency International corruption perception index than the US.
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A great example of the impact of supporting open-source Bitcoin (L1 and L2) development. If you care about Bitcoin, supporting development is a tremendously effective way to give back.
Looks like most of the lighting community owes Antoine a beer, and presumably
@jlppfeffer
by extension for funding his continued work!
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@hasufl
I would expect this crisis to be deflationary for US, Europe and other sovereigns whose debt is denominated in their own currency but inflationary for emerging markets and countries whose debt is not denominated in their own currency
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Actually, it's _an_ original Buy
#Bitcoin
sign.
@BitcoinSignGuy
hand made a limited edition of 21. He just told me he has a couple left. Contact him directly if you want one. I love mine!
It's not every day you get to hear
@MarkYusko
and
@jlppfeffer
talk about the Fed.
But it is DEFINITELY not every day that the original "Buy Bitcoin" signs makes an appearance 😂
Huge thanks to
@BitGo
for making this conversation possible.
Listen below 👇
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Looking forward to talking about
#bitcoin
#btc
tomorrow afternoon at
#dld20
in Munich with
@alexanderliegl
@starkness
and
@ChaseLochmiller
. Livestream on website.
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Protocol interoperability drives towards functional specialisation of protocols. Users distinguish the cryptoassets that have the best SoV characteristics (as it happens, BTC and USD stable coins) and treat everything else (eg ETH) as working capital. (2/4)
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@investor_shy
Empirically, there are lottery like potential return bets in crypto, but I'm not the best person to help you find them. The best opportunities are in crypto venture capital, but access and selection aren't easy.
@jlppfeffer
Thanks. But can you give a few more. If I wanted to put $100k into crypto and NFTs. Not looking for safety. Looking for possible lottery type returns. Could you name 6 or 7 worth putting 5 to 10k into each?
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Pfeffer Capital are delighted to be investors in
@MossEarth
. Is
@Co2token
money, a utility token or another example of cryptoeconomic complexity theatre? Nope, none of that. It's super simple. 1 CO2 token = 1 certified carbon credit = 1 tonne of carbon offset.
@cz_binance
A carbon credit fintech, MOSS, () has created an Amazon forest carbon credit token, the CO2 = 1 carbon credit = 1 ton of CO2 offset. Issuance at 50-70% discounts to Europe and US credit prices, and the $ goes straight to Amazon projects.
#CO2
#moss
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as the pace of collective mindsets seeing it as such. This could take centuries or only as long as it takes synapses to fire.
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Please come support the Sohn Conference Foundation where I’ll be speaking on Monday!
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@moneyball
@Chris_Stewart_5
@jfnewbery
@jamesob
@hrdng
@MarcinJachymiak
@bitcoinoptech
@morcosa
@wences
I am in awe of what the entire
#bitcoin
#btc
community has built and is building and of the dedication of people like you all. There are so many ways to contribute and there's room for everyone to pitch in. Working together, pulling together, we can do this.
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The tricky part is that, just because something should have some value doesn't mean that buying it at any price is a good idea. You need to think about value creation, value capture, long-term equilibrium value, risk and discount rates, what price to buy and what price to sell.
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Pfeffer Capital are excited to be investors in
#psiquantum
A tech startup in California says it is well on its way to creating the first commercial quantum computer
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And tougher still is that the short-term lottery returns in crypto are not driven by any of those fundamentals but rather by memes, social media, narratives, ponzinomics and manipulation. I'm not the right person to help you play that game.
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Maybe they're too busy living to obsess over dying.
Striking to see the difference in behavior between New-Yorkers and Silicon Valley people facing
#coronavirus
. In NYC I couldn’t tell anything was unusual. Stores, restaurants, streets. No visible change. In Silicon Valley shelves of grocery stores and malls are empty 🤷🏻♂️.
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1/ Launch day 🎉 Superdao has raised $10.5M at $160M valuation to make it absurdly easy to start and operate DAOs.
Here’s why we are building an all-in-one DAO platform
Thread👇
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Honoured
Virtually everyone on the investment side of the industry should periodically re-read this paper, and if they're investing in new protocols, should have a good answer for why they think its conclusions don't hold
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Amazing, must-read thread by
@jfnewbery
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excellent piece
The debate around pts
@naval
raised is just about exhausted, but instead of banging my head against the wall I figured I'd chime in.
This article discusses some of the fundamental misconceptions in crypto and the pivotal role investors play
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#Bitcoin
⁃52,560 new blocks produced
⁃Taproot BIP
Historically big jump in global productivity
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Way to go
@lopp
! Thank you!
I'm tithing 15% of my salary to open source Bitcoin development; if you have been blessed as a hodler I urge you to consider paying it forward.
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Users rationally act to minimise their working capital, driving up the velocity of those cryptoassets (ETH in this case) and their monetary value down. In contrast, they hold onto the SoV cryptoassets, holding their velocity down and driving their monetary value up. (3/4)
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Bravo and thank you
@silvergatebank
!
We’re delighted to share that our team has committed to a quarterly donation to
@bitcoinbrink
for the ongoing support of Bitcoin open-source development! Learn more about Silvergate’s engagement with Brink here:
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¡Orgullosos de ser socios de
@cheveningfco
en Uruguay!
Comenzó el evento de networking de la
#PfefferFamilyFoundation
, nuevo socio de
@cheveningfco
en 🇺🇾
El Embajador
@IanDuddyFCO
, el Director de la Fundación
@jlppfeffer
y el Director de
@GBUAuy
@JoaquinBazzano
dedicaron unas palabras a los presentes, ex-becarios
#Chevening
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¡Unite a la mega campaña
#misionplatos
de
@Redalco
para entregar 1.500.000 platos de comida en el
#Uruguay
! ¡Por los próximos cuatro días tu donación se multiplica x 2! Es simplemente increíble lo que hace Redalco.
Nuestra meta es alcanzar los 1.500.000 platos para quienes más lo necesitan a través de una recaudación colectiva.
Compartiendo y enviando este mensaje podemos llegar a más personas, ¿Te sumás? 🙌🏼💪🏼
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@BitwiseInvest
@bitcoinbrink
@OpenSats
@HRF
Congratulations to
@BitwiseInvest
on the launch of $bitb and thank you for the generous support of
#Bitcoin
open source development!
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The best way to minimise both false negatives and false positives is perhaps to place the burden of proof on the new idea and require replicable, well-sourced supporting evidence while standing ready to flip your view in a heartbeat if/when that evidence is present.
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Well, I'm not really a macro guy, but here are a few thoughts:
It seems reasonable to think that the US will become more like Europe and that the US and Europe will become more Japan-like. But is that such a bad thing?
@jlppfeffer
@hasufl
China/Russia are already reducing treasury holdings and increasing Gold reserves.
Could we end up in a Japan-like situation with the US having to finance its own deficit, leading to dollar devaluation (but no CPI inflation) and S&P stagnating in real terms for decades?
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This is fantastic news!
Hey guys. Management again. Unfortunately, things didn't work out with Gary. However, we think we've found somebody who can live up to his commitment to decentralization. Please welcome Steve Lee, aka
@moneyball
, to the Square Crypto team.
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