Jacob Maroga
@jacob_maroga
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Former CEO of Eskom. BSc(Eng) (Wits), Advanced Management Program(Harvard Business School), Leadership |Energy|Infrastructure| Property Management
Johannesburg
Joined April 2013
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Fossil Gas to Europe, Renewables to Africa.
Nigeria will supply more gas to Germany after the two countries signed a deal that will also include $500m (£399m) in renewable energy investments in the West African nation.
The first gas under the deal will be exported to Germany in 2026.
🔗
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Minister of Electricity surrounding himself with quality. Silus Zimu, a veteran Electrical Engineer, with stints at Eskom, former CEO of City Power, and private sector experience. Great start.
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Yes I am an ex-CEO of
@Eskom_SA
but I am not an ex-citizen of RSA. Those who enjoy engineering fantasies from pseudo energy experts you are free to stay away from my timeline. Thank you.
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If you are a 20% party and you think that the other 80% and their constituency represents DOOMSDAY without your supervision. I wonder if that represents the principles of Equality, Unity, Mutual Respect, Abundance , Justice & Nationhood
#ElectionResults2024
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Whilst RSA is making noise trying to be the Climate Champion of the World, Germany has built 3 fossil gas terminals in 9 months, restarted 10GW of coal plants & expanded coal mines to ensure their Energy Security.
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The Loadshedding Crisis in short: Eskom has 50 000MW of installed dispatchable power and 6 000MW of renewable energy . Total of 56 000MW but cannot meet demand of 34 000MW. The rest in noise.
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Dear Mr
@PresidencyZA
, thank you for the Family Meeting on Energy Crisis. Let’s be frank with you Mr President.
1) The only credible solution is the improvement of Eskom EAF from 60% to above 75%
2) New Variable Renewable Energy will add ZERO value to ending Loadshedding
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This is my country. I don’t need any approval or any deployment to speak about the important issues of MY COUNTRY
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Capital investment must follow returns not race. The notion that South Africans must subjugate themselves to ‘white supervision’ to avoid capital flight must be rejected. RSA must draw a line in the sand. Capital with racist intentions not welcome.
#Elections2024
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Dear
@Eskom_SA
unpack this. 1) What major incident happened in Zambia, 2) What does “ Impacting on the entire SADC Power Pool mean? 3) How does an incident in Zambia affect Cahora Bassa which is a point to point HVDC link btwn Moz and RSA?
@SikonathiM
#eskom
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Eskom was formed in 1923 with the specific and deliberate Public Mandate for white industrialisation after the formation of the Union of South Africa in 1910. So in 2022 the Public Mandate of
@Eskom_SA
is being privatised. New Black Industrialist, you are on your own!
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30 years after the 1910 Union of South Africa, Jan Smuts and his comrades, had built a formidable Afrikaner industrial class around Eskom, Iscor, IDC, Foskor etc that no one could threaten them with ‘markets’ and ‘capital’. They were the ‘market’
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[LISTEN] Minister of Energy of Qatar on the Energy Transition, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi. He has a BSc in Energy & Gas Engineering from the Pennsylvania State University in the USA.
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This is by far the best article contributing insightful solutions to the ENERGY CRISIS. Dr Zwanani Mathe - A REAL ENERGY PROFESSIONAL SPEAKING.
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Load-shedding has become a very big business. Stopping of load-shedding upsets a lot of Big People
Motsepe-backed GoSolr plans ambitous R10bn expansion to fight SA’s load-shedding crisis
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As Eskom hit Stage 6 it is important to note that Renewable IPP’s have ZERO obligation to support the System Operator during the emergency, because they are non-dispatchable. Renewable IPP’s only produce at the command of the weather not the System Operator.
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“What some western diplomats are doing here (on energy policy in South Africa) is CRIMINAL. What China & Russia are advising on energy is far more sensible if RSA has to become a successful developing nation” - Frans Cronje via
@BizNewsCOM
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The most credible way to end loadshedding is to fix the about 15 000MW that is broken in Eskom. Renewable energy is good for RSA but will not end loadshedding
#LoadsheddingStage6
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An engineer friend of mine has remarked: “Consensus is for politicians, not scientists” . Scientists and engineers must follow the evidence not the crowd.
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China is the biggest attraction of capital on the planet. China is a one-party state governed by the Chinese Communist Party. Every economic sector in China is dominated by the state. Capital doesn’t care about political arrangements. Capital cares about certainty of returns
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Lula da Silva, returns as president of Brazil, at age 77
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We may start asking for certified Engineering Qualifications as prerequisite for tweeting on this platform. These fake experts are tiring
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On Energy Transition, don’t listen to the noise. Just watch China. China supplies ~90% solar PV to the world, yet they are constructing 94GW of new coal, on top of 1074GW installed coal capacity. Don’t listen to commentators watch the source.
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China will soon become the No 1 Economy in the World as it increases its use of coal to supply 80% of Renewable Energy Technologies to countries that are shutting their coal plants.
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Renewables, solar and wind, have a solid commercial and engineering case as part of the energy mix. Renewables must not be contaminated by fake claims that they will replace base load dispatchable power.
#LoadsheddingStage6
#JustTransituon
#Eskom
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First UK coal mine in decades approved - BBC News
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LISTEN | R500m contract approval based on one paragraph motivation. No report, no process, no bidding. R50m ‘off-the-books’ intelligence contract to former apartheid agents. No bidding, no process. Corporate governance at its purest.
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Germany restarted ~ 10 GW of coal power plants since Ukraine. The reality is that these plants were not really decommissioned. They were in ‘Grid Reserve’, meaning the plants were kept idle in the books of the TSO to be recalled for operation at short notice.
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Maybe in 1994 we focused on the Constitutional Principles for a Democratic Transition. We forgot to develop Engineering Principles for Public Infrastructure. Roads, power, health, water, sanitation, education & public works etc.
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So the entire US battery storage capacity is 4.6 GW, but RSA is going to magically roll-out 5GW of BESS in 24 months. No feasibility studies, no network studies, no approved budget. Just engineering magic!
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South Africa is not in an Energy Crisis, it’s an Energy Expertise Crisis. False Experts advised the authorities to neglect the Eskom coal fleet because it can be replaced by weather dependant generation.
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Putin has exposed that Germany NEVER replaced coal with renewables. Germany reduced local baseload with Russian gas. Then Germany doubled its installed capacity with Renewables on top of the baseload capacity, creating 100% redundancy and the most expensive power in the world
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But, Anton, you were the Primary Energy Advisor to the South African Government for at least 20 years. NERSA, War Room, Presidential Task Team, NPC, Parliamentary Inquiry,etc. What happened?
For 15 years now, South Africa’s government has held onto a fading hope that
@Eskom_SA
will restore electricty supply security, ignoring the inexorable decline in its capabilities & performance, while delaying structural reforms, private investment & competition.
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South Africa has the highest unemployment rate in the world by far - 32,9%. But RSA‘s focus is to become the Climate Change Champion of the World where it contributes 1,4% of CO2 emissions.
Unemployment
🇿🇦 South Africa: 32.9%
🇪🇸 Spain: 12.29%
🇹🇷 Turkey: 8.5%
🇦🇷 Argentina: 7.7%
🇮🇳 India: 7.64%
🇫🇷 France: 7.5%
🇧🇷 Brazil: 7.1%
🇮🇹 Italy: 6.8%
🇨🇦 Canada: 6.4%
🇩🇪 Germany: 6%
🇨🇳 China: 5%
🇮🇩 Indonesia: 4.82%
🇬🇧 UK: 4.4%
🇺🇸 US: 4.1%
🇦🇺 Australia: 4%
🇳🇱 Netherlands: 3.6%
🇸🇦
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China installed coal generation capacity= 1074 GW (24 x Eskom). China new coal generation under construction = 94 GW ( ~ 2 x Eskom) . Source : Global Coal Plant Tracker- July 2022
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Apologies
@Bruceps
. I missed the part where you have become a scientist, an engineer and an investor. I knew you as a journalist.
And what might be inappropriate to you seems increasingly logical to many scientists, engineers and investors. Betting on the coal fleet by now is way too late, whatever the management. It doth butter no parsnips. Storage is the future...
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I sense the Energy Crisis in RSA is igniting the assertive re-emergence of REAL PROFESSIONALS across society against unscientific popular narratives.
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[WATCH] ‘I am going to lecture you on Climate Change’ - The President of Guyana, Dr Irfaan Ali, schools BBC HARDtalk interviewer on Climate Hypocrisy with hard facts.
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Germany will pay €200bn (R3,5 trillion) to bail out consumers and co’s from the energy crisis. They spent €500bn on their unsuccessful energy transition. Nationalised Uniper for €29bn. But will teach & finance RSA Energy Transition?
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The IPP Program in RSA is made possible by extensive STATE SUPPORT. 1) IPP Office in DMRE, 2) 20 yr take-or-pay PPA with ESKOM, 3) NERSA pass-through of IPP tariffs 4) Treasury Guarantees ~ R200b to date. In liberalised markets IPP’s are exposed to market volatility, not in RSA.
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RSA, a country that is 1,3% of the CO2 problem, offers itself as global sacrificial lamb as if it is 100% of the solution to Climate Change. Something is wrong. If Climate Change is the real Agenda, the world should direct their attention to China, Asia, Europe and the US.
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I am an engineer. My political EQ is very low. But how could the DA, whose mission has been to remove the ANC but now stuck at 22%, be the party that now can save the ANC through a coalition? Or is this a way for the 20% to ‘supervise’ the 80%?
@BizNewsCOM
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‘Load-shedding is over not because of burning of diesel, but because of De Ruyter’s exit.. allowed cabinet to support coal station managers, that’s why we not in load-shedding ’ - Frans Cronje
#Loadshedding
via
@BizNewsCOM
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Dear
@Eskom_SA
network engineers. HV networks are designed with double redundancy (N-1) criteria. Therefore why can a single fault lead to Stage 6 loadshedding? Ref-Eskom Network Planning Reliabilty Guideline
@SikonathiM
@EngNewsZA
#EskomSabotage
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Great! Finally
@Eskom_SA
is focusing on the most important solution. Fix the current baseload fleet. The Top 6 of Majuba, Tutuka, Kendal, Duvha, Kusile and Matla represent ~ 18 000MW of the 46 000MW of Eskom. You fix that the you end loadshedding. The rest is detail.
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The fundamentals of power system engineering are quite stubborn. They don’t bent to political pronouncements or engineering fantasies from noisy NGO’s funded by rich global foundations. Look at Germany, R8,5 trillion later, their Energy Transition is in tatters.
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Sad to see how RSA is allowing itself to become a little social experiment. From been a global leader in some industrial and engineering aspects. Deep level mining, coal to liquid, large scale power generation, nuclear, 765kV high voltage tx, Low ambition.
#EskomMediaStatement
World Bank approves R9 billion concessional loan facility for Komati Power Station repurposing and Just Energy Transition
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Yes
@OUTASA
I have an agenda. To ensure our country doesn’t plan energy security based on engineering fantasies. But if you have an answer to my question on your 5000MW of BESS I will be very grateful
You left Eskom in 2009 after loadshedding STARTED under you as CEO in 2007. Funny how you suddenly found your voice while you have been DEAD quiet about the mess at
#Eskom
until now. It's very clear that you have an agenda. Not going to entertain you or your agenda here.
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The Just Energy Transition Partnership suffers from 2 fundamental flaws 1) VRE will not replace dispatchable fossil power. It failed in Germany 2) Europe and the West have never benevolently sponsored the economic rise of any African country in the past 500 years. Wake up!
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I am extremely concerned about how people are adding megawatts (MW) from different generation technologies as if you are counting cash. You can’t do that.
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Who is the biggest CO2 polluter in the world? CHINA . Who is building the most coal plants in the world ? CHINA. Where does the rest of the world buy 80% of renewable energy equipment? CHINA.
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As RSA approaches 5 months without loadshedding & and
@Eskom_SA
EAF approaching 70% , it’s clear that the Energy Crisis was never about lack of capacity, aging coal plant, no new solar & wind etc.
#POWERALERT1
Loadshedding suspension continues: 142 days of constant energy supply and R10.21 billion
reduction in diesel expenditure achieved
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Komati is just a proxy. A deal has been struck with Global Foundations like Rockefeller & Bezos, facilitated by John Kerry, to pay for closing fossil plants in Developing Countries. It’s like Trophy Hunting for plants closures, Energy Security doesn’t matter.
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The IPP’s are actually State Supported Private Power Producers. Why? They are supported by Eskom’s take-or-pay PPA, meaning Eskom must prioritize the IPP electrons. And each IPP contract is guaranteed by Government and to date the exposure is R200 b
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“The greatest threat to the GNU (&RSA) is European & US Energy Policy towards South Africa. The policy of decarbonisation & closing
@Eskom_SA
coal stations will sabotage the success of the GNU” - France Cronje via
@BizNewsCOM
#EnergyLeadership
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China & Indonesia are increasing their coal power generation to dominate manufacturing for the Global Green Economy: solar, batteries, EV’s. and create high quality jobs. RSA wants to shutdown coal to become an Energy Transition Champion of the world while unemployment persists.
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MW numbers are been thrown around as if all generation technologies are the same. Each technology has a capacity factor (CF). E.g. Nuclear has a capacity of >90%, meaning you can expect full capacity 90% of the time. But solar has ~ 20% ,wind ~ 30% coal and ~ 60%.
#Eskom
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Whilst China is focusing on how to increase its global market share of the Energy Transition trade based on superior engineering, price, quality and volumes, RSA is focusing its Transition, on how to become a good destination for Donations and Debt.
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I know of no country other than South Africa where its own citizens can threaten to instigate ‘economic violence’ against it because they don’t like the constitutional democratic outcomes under the guise of ‘the markets’.
[LISTEN] What they think about your country and your choices.
Q:What do your international friends think of RSA?
A: It’s looney tunes down here. … The fact that 64% believes in some socialist idea, they think it’s looney tunes.
Rob Hersov via
@BizNewsCOM
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Energy Security is critical to National Security. Thus geopolitics matter. Germany based their energy security and transition on renewables and Russian gas. Germany got the geopolitics wrong. Their energy security is in tatters and their economy is in crisis.
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So Joe Biden wants to give RSA money to accelerate the retirement of coal plants. But Manu Asthsna, CEO OF PJM Interconnection, who runs a 186GW power system in the USA wants the slowdown of coal plants retirements due reliability concerns.
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Numbers don’t lie: In 2021 the
@Eskom_SA
coal generation cost was R406/MWh (40,6 cents/kWh). The renewable cost was R2 178 / MWh (R2,18 /kWh) , which is 536% more than coal. Nuclear is even lower at R105/ MWh (10,5 cents/ kWh).
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So Gwede Mantashe must anticipate what
@Eskom_SA
breakdowns are going to be and then procure new capacity to replace it. It’s like buying a new car because you don’t know how to change a flat tire.
#LoadsheddingStage6
#Eskom
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The World Bank says China lifted 800 million people out of poverty in the past 40yrs & became the 2nd largest economy. Guess what energy source powered this phenomenal performance? COAL
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A reliable power grid is based on engineering fundamentals rooted in physics, not on ‘engineered’ consensus rooted in ideologies.
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Yes. Technically we had Stage 8 for the past 2 days. Anything over 7000MW is Stage 8.
@Eskom_SA
7000MW - 7999MW = Stage 8
6000MW - 6999MW = Stage 7
5000MW - 5999MW = Stage 6
4000MW - 4999MW = Stage 5
3000MW - 3999MW = Stage 4
2000MW - 2999MW = Stage 3
1000MW - 1999MW = Stage 2
1MW - 999MW = Stage 1
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‘The truth must be told about the injustice in Komati in the name of the [energy] transition’ - Minister of Electricity
“On the delay of the decommissioning of coal-fired power stations and our commitments we set ourselves to decarbonise the economy and move to a fossil [fuel]-free economy.”
#MinisterofElectricity
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Lessons from Germany: It does not matter how much Variable Renewable Energy(220GW) you install, there will be times when both wind & solar goes to ZERO. Solar goes to ZERO every night, wind can go close to ZERO across the entire Germany.
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Germany has 128GW of solar & wind. But the max demand of 68GW in week 48 was met with 49GW contribution (71%) of dispatchable fossil generation of coal & gas. After spending €500b (R8,5 trillion) over 20 years on solar & wind. RSA beware.
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Tshwane Mayor wants to offer 40 years lease to IPP’s to reopen COAL power station.
The Tshwane Municipality wants to offer 40-year leases to independent power producers who will upgrade and operate the Rooiwal and Pretoria West Power Stations and sell that electricity to the city.
Cilliers Brink, Tshwane Executive Mayor, said the city won’t be “fleeced”. TCG
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It’s worth amplifying that the only credible engineering solution to end loadshedding is to improve the performance of the
@Eskom_SA
generation fleet. More variable non-dispatchable renewables has benefits as part of the energy mix, but will not stop load shedding.
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The current Global Energy Crisis is a direct results of market and technology choices based on dogma and ideology, rather than engineering logic, particularly in Europe. RSA has great a opportunity to change course and avoid these costly mistakes.
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The attempted ‘Energy Coup’ from 2018 has failed. It’s time to have the courage to review everything and carve a new Energy Path
#EnergyLeadership
#EskomMediaStatement
Eskom reaches 100 days without loadshedding, signalling marked improvement in Generation and financial performance.
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Yes
@AntonEberhard
, I take full responsibility for my tenure at Eskom btw 2007 and 2009. Now can we talk about the current Stage 6 loadshedding where the current leadership is suggesting to solve a 15 000MW baseload crisis by giving out land for 1800MW of solar.
3 ex
@Eskom_SA
CEOs have much to say about fixing SA’s power utility:
* Maroga who faced Board sanctions & ran to Zuma for protection
* Molefe who resigned after being exposed by the Public Protector
* Koko who fled a disciplinary hearing and, with Molefe, was condemned by Zondo
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So
@AntonEberhard
, how much accountability are you taking for this mess. You have been an embedded energy advisor of this administration for ever despite your lack of operational knowledge of power system engineering.
S Africa’s
@Eskom_SA
shareholder minister needs to explain why he has not strengthened the power utility’s board (it has no engineers, CA’s or anyone with large corporate experience) and why, 6m after the deadline to unbundle Transmission, he has not appointed its board
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The 2018 Presidential Eskom Sustainability Task Team
1) Prof Anton Eberhard
2) Sir Mick Davies, former CEO of Xstrata
3) Grove Steyn, author of Meridian Report
4) Number 1
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The implication of the removal of the licensing cap of 100MW, may mean
@Eskom_SA
is no longer obligated to connect any new customer. If you need power you must built it yourself. RSA will be 1st country in the past 100 years to expand industrialisation with self provisioning.
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‘In the Energy Transition ensure that the new works reliably before you dismantle the old’ - Mantashe says this is the advice from the Chinese Energy Minister attending the BRICS Summit
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The
@Eskom_SA
diesel debacle is a test for National Energy Security vs Commercial Interests: If you stop using diesel because you have exhausted the budget, will you shut coal plants when you exceed the coal budget? National interest vs Fiduciary Resp.? Who makes the call?
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TV interviews, book launches. The grand narrative is Andre De Ruyter belongs to a category of self-selected humans who possesses Universal Competence, Universal Virtue and Universal Integrity. Any failures around him must be explained away.
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Loadshedding from 2018 was as a direct result from decisions to shut coal faster in favor of renewables & the pursuit of ‘climate finance’ . It’s astounding that this disastrous path is still being entertained when stability is returning
@EnergyLeadership
South Africa is risking a $9.3 billion (R170 billion) climate finance pact by delaying the closing of a number of coal-fired power plants, a panel appointed by the country’s environment minister said.
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The Americans and Europeans are failing with the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, but they are going to teach RSA how to do it. And we are giggling along.
“As we make this transition, we have to do it in a way that doesn’t lead to
#blackouts
or brownouts,” Raymond G. Sandoval, PNM Resources
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Germany is a failed experiment on the use of Variable Renewable Energy to run a modern economy. Installed VRE 120 GW, fossil 70GW but can’t meet 80GW demand without restarting coal.
@Eskom_SA
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So Germany is keeping coal on standby, Australia is delaying the shut down of coal, the US is building more fossil gas, China, India, Indonesia more coal, but RSA experts have ‘sophisticated models’ that can accelerate replacing 20GW of coal with renewables.
Germany’s energy regulator predicted the country will need more fossil-fuel power plants on standby to help keep the lights on in the coming years, a potential setback to the country's efforts to phase out coal
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Private capital in power generation is complex & complicated, bcs of the peculiarities of electricity. That’s why IPP’s are propped up by Eskom( Take-or-pay 25y PPA ) and the R200b state guarantees. Private benefit underwritten by the public. But no value to loadshedding
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Germany made 2 fundamental errors in their Energy Security Strategy. 1) Deprioritise local dispatchable baseload power in favor of intermittent renewable energy 2) Place National Energy Security in the hands of a Foreign Power when you could have developed your own.
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The R400b debt of
@Eskom_SA
didn’t fall from the sky. It was a Funding Model by National Treasury in 2009 to avoid shareholder injection in Eskom but to use debt and tariffs to fund capital expansion. Debt guarantees of R175b in 2009 increased to R350b in 2010
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The call for investment in 14 000km of Transmission Network at R400b has nothing to do with ending load shedding. It may have something to do with stranded private capital in the Northern & Western Cape on Renewable Projects unable to proceed due to lack of transmission capacity
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Komati Power Station was built in the 60’s as part of the Afrikaner vision for a world class Energy System for their Industrial Empowerment. In 2023 Komati is turned into an ‘agro-voltaic’ pilot with IMF donations. Is this our Flagship Industrial Ambition?
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[Fiction vs Reality] The
@Eskom_SA
turnaround shows that Fiction can sometimes be exciting and compelling but Reality & competence can be dry and boring.
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Engineers speaking up: “With the added cost of balancing renewables on the RSA grid, it begs the question whether nuclear is not the cheaper option” - According to modelling by Monique Le Roux - Stellenbosch University Chief Engineer
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‘Some of you are predicting a DOOMSDAY, that South Africa will be a wasteland, if the ANC took over that country’ - Chris Hani in 1991 in the USA.
#ElectionResults
#Doomsday
has been a bogeyman forever.
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Political liberation is meaningless if the current elite becomes intellectual pawns of the former oppressor. Intellectual liberation is the real deal.
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The Energy Crisis in Europe is a very n.b. lesson for RSA. Cause the embedded energy‘experts’ had manufactured a consensus that the Europe Energy Transition was going well and it must be a playbook for RSA.
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To actually think it’s possible that a whole power plant can be run ‘secretly’ just demonstrate the state of energy illiteracy in this country
If Eskom is found to have been secretly burning expensive diesel to keep the lights on ahead of the elections it will have been taking an incalculable financial and reputational risk, writes Peter Bruce.
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Bheki Nxumalo was re-appointed in March 2023 as
@Eskom_SA
Generation Executive, immediately after the departure of De Ruyter. March 2024 load-shedding stopped.
#EnergyLeadership
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You have to marvel at the creativity of energy experts explaining the pause in loadshedding: its diesel, it’s the past CEO, its luck, its renewables, it’s the elections but it’s not about the capable people at Eskom applying the right leadership & correct engineering
Good news about load-shedding and a stable power supply in South Africa
Energy expert Chris Yelland said Eskom's break in load-shedding is not because of political interference ahead of the elections. Instead, it is something far more positive.
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