Jack Lichtenstein
@jacklich10
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Duke 2022 | 2022 NFL Big Data Bowl college winner | 🏀⚾️🏈
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Pinned Tweet
For my
#BigDataBowl
submission, I looked at punt returns and quantified expected field position in order to better isolate the decision-making and contributions of a returner.
Link:
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Thread of where NCAA tournament teams like to shoot from relative to average (min. 10 charted games):
EAST REGION
UConn is the overall
#1
seed for a reason, BYU allergic to getting to the rim
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Thread of where NCAA tournament teams like to shoot from relative to average (min. 10 charted games)
WEST REGION
UCLA and Arkansas peppering the midrange, UConn *chefs kiss*
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Patrick Mahomes has had the greatest start to an NFL career we have seen, by far
#nflverse
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First round complete and Payton Turner is breaking the scale...
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As they did last year, the Steelers and Eagles once again knocked the draft out of the park according to the consensus big board!
Falcons and Commanders... not so much
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Best drafts according to the consensus board goes to the Chiefs, Panthers, and Ravens.
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How this year's draft class stacks up to previous years using the consensus big board (2016-2024), A THREAD:
Quarterbacks:
Caleb Williams = generational (since 2021)
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So good from
@PFF_George
on the Forecast. Discussion on the Jets draft was excellent. To be clear, the Jets got good players, but anyone would have gotten good players picking so high and so often. Their process was below avg to poor
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Dave Gettleman and the Giants completely changed course on draft day this year, compiling the most expected net value via draft day trades since 2010!
Data courtesy
@LeeSharpeNFL
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The Eagles, Steelers, and Browns knocked the draft out of the park according to the consensus big board!
Patriots and Lions... not so much
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EAST REGION
Kentucky and Memphis continue their love affairs with midrange shots
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No QB prospect in this years draft cracks the top 15 in consensus ranking (2016-present)
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Kyrie Irving has 41 points at half time. He has some wild home-road splits this season
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Thread of where NCAA tournament teams like to shoot from relative to average (min. 8 charted games)
WEST REGION
Nate Oats' Alabama team continues to be the definition of an analytics-friendly shot profile
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SOUTH REGION
Houston and Kentucky love their midrange/floaters
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If anyone is interested in NFL draft prospect data for text analysis, I have scraped ESPN's prospect analyses for every player I could from 1967-present. 4,782 have some text, including 223 QBs. You can join the two datasets by `player_id`.
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Some tournament simulations using my model's power ratings! Loved Houston last year, love them again this year
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Of the 8 remaining teams, all of them have QBs in the top 10 of my predictive QB rankings
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MIDWEST REGION
Creighton allergic to the rim, Kansas with the Hunter Dickinson effect
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Jets draft capital grade: A+
Jets draft process grade: C
Everyone in the media who loves their draft is really just in love with their capital
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I created a shiny app for anyone to play around with a consensus 2021 NFL Draft big board.
Link here:
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New hire NFL GM performance through first four years on the job since 2012. Joe Schoen (small sample caveats) overseeing a Giants team that performed well above market expectations
Also, Brad Holmes
#restoreit
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Final Four teams are set. Where do they like to shoot from?
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For 22/31 NFL franchises, it's time to talk about the 2023 draft. The consensus big board app is now updated with current prospects!
Link:
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The 2023 NFL Draft Consensus Big Board is updated!
Link:
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For everyone complaining about "Well how does this look for the last three years?", here's your thread:
2022
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It is Selection Sunday! I am proud to announce the release of
#gamezoneR
, an R package to scrape STATS LLC's GameZone data. The main benefit of the package is the volume of shot location data available (over 180,000 shots from this season alone!)
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My attempt at holistically evaluating coaches 2020 4th down decisions using
@benbbaldwin
's recommendations. McDermott's playoff blunders see him fall down the ranks... but mostly
#OurBrowns
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How often and in what direction did each team deviate from the consensus board in the draft?
This is pick-adjusted using OTC and it's not a surprise that most team's are 'negative'. I think we can say that something in the Saints, Cowboys, and Raiders process was flawed...
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ESPN came out with an article to rank head coach 4th down decision making and it's bad. Here would be how I'd rank them this year based on
@benbbaldwin
's model. Note how wide the error bars are - it's hard to judge coaches when the vast majority of their decisions are *easy*.
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Here's what I don't understand about Sam Darnold... He wasn't all that productive in college either...
how are there so many darnold truthers
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The student commencement speaker for Duke blatantly plagiarized the student speech from Harvard’s Sarah Abushaar in 2014
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As
@benbbaldwin
has shown with his 4th down model, NFL coaches are bad at 4th down decision making. However, they are also bad at letting 3rd down yardage gained influence their decisions!
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How this year's draft class stacks up to previous years using the consensus big board (2016-2023), A THREAD:
Quarterbacks
This is a very good QB class even if Caleb Williams would top them all!
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Using these rough estimates of player value within tiers and The Athletic's tier list, teams with the most title equity ahead of next season are the Warriors, 76ers, and Nets
Historically teams start to have title equity once they get to the mid/high teens
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Yesterday I looked at a team's draft 'efficiency', or how well they draft the best players available to them according to the consensus board at their picks. Here's every teams draft since 2016.
➡️more opportunity to draft value
⬆️better efficiency drafting available value
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Wide Receivers:
Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best consensus ranked WR since 2016, with Nabers and Odunze not far behind
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There is only 1 more game of college football and 1 more NFL regular season week... which means draft season is creeping nearer!
So, the initial 2024 NFL consensus big board is live!
Link:
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My model's QB rankings going into week 5 (MNF pending). Shout out to
@thomas_mock
for gtExtras, because it is amazing!
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Another way to look at the Nets vs. Knicks rivalry is using a 50 game rolling average, where the Nets have been pretty dominant since the Jason Kidd era
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Using the wisdom of the crowds to draft >>
Eric DeCosta had two first-round picks in the 2022 draft: Kyle Hamilton and Tyler Linderbaum. In Year 2, they’re both already Pro Bowlers. EDC 🎯🎯
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NFL Draft Consensus Big Board is now updated for recent moves in media big boards
Link:
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A week plus into the playoffs, how have market implied championship odds changed? Lakers with a big dip, Sixers losing steam with Embiid injury, while Nets and Bucks biggest gainers
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Excited to release an update to
#gamezoneR
! Now able to load in just under 1 million college basketball shot attempts in under 1 minute. Also, the package now parses possessions so you can analyze teams on a per possession basis. Below are the top 15 offenses since 2017-18
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For fans looking forward to the NFL draft, the 2022 consensus big board is taking shape. Will update this periodically as rankings change and more big boards are released
Can take a look here:
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The 2022 QB class is the first since 2017 to not have a QB ranked in the top 10 of the consensus big board
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Post mortem on the Nets season. James Harden averaged 0.48 drives/min before his hamstring injury on March 31st. After that, he averaged 0.22 drives/min, including 2 of his 3 lowest drives/min outputs in games 5 and 6 of the Bucks series.
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If anyone is interested in viewing our project from the
@CuseAnalytics
Football Analytics competition, you can find our slide deck on GitHub here (I think the
#dataviz
is worth it):
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According to my model, here are the best shooters thus far in college basketball, among players with at least 80 charted attempts.
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If I was gonna plagiarize a student commencement speech, I’d probably choose one that had fewer than 3.8 million views on YouTube
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Per , copy and pasting the transcript into its free plagiarism detector, it spits out the following 'significant plagiarism' warning
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The 1st round is complete and this time, Cole Strange (and Quay Walker) are breaking the scale
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I love all my haters, especially my dad
My model's QB rankings going into week 5 (MNF pending). Shout out to
@thomas_mock
for gtExtras, because it is amazing!
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My end of regular season predictive QB rankings. Roast me.
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I have made a college basketball predictive model using
#gamezoneR
. Here are my current power rankings. If your favorite team isn't in the top 10 it's because I hate them
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I decided to create an entire database of college basketball play-by-play data using
#ncaahoopR
by
@recspecs730
. Here's every shot charted by ESPN since the start of the season!
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First round complete, who were the reaches and steals based on consensus?
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Built a model predicting if a shot goes in using
#ncaahoopR
shot location data. Can see College shooters are better straight on. Can also see a small increase in expected FG% at 90 degree angle at the 3PT line.
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The biggest round 1 reaches according to the consensus big board since 2016 is littered with QBs who move up the draft because of positional value. The non-QBs on this list are overwhelmingly busts
Penix the 2nd biggest reach behind Daniel Jones!
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Draft day grades and many other analyses don't hold predictive power in terms of on-field results. However, the net value a team receives via draft day trades positively correlates with point differential in the years after the trade!
Data:
@LeeSharpeNFL
Inspiration:
@PFF_Moo
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Looking at these deviations by day of the draft (as suggested by
@statsowar
). Can see the Cowboys are separate from the Saints, Raiders in that their 'reaches' are Day 2 picks, rather than Day 1 picks.
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Can checkout a lot of different draft metrics on the 'Team Breakdown' tab here
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Which college basketball teams generate the best shots?
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Please show me the good 49ers draft picks in recent years. Hitting on Purdy has covered up many blunders
The Niners always are near the bottom of this and it doesn't seem to affect them
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The Jets had to trade up to 14 so that they could get "their guy" and no OL go in between 14 and their original pick at 23.
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I wanted to compare these PFF numbers to other NFL draft charts. Turns out that even if you think PFF is valuing early picks higher than you might expect, the Jimmy Johnson chart values early picks at an absurd level.
According to the PFF WAR-fueled draft value chart,
25% of all the draft value comes from the first 18 picks,
50% of all the draft value comes from the first 47 picks,
75% of all the draft value comes from the first 102 picks.
When the 2nd round starts, 40% of the value is gone.
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If we take ESPN's FPI ratings and use 1.5 points for home field, how would ESPN line NFL Week 1 games?
A lot different then how the market sees things
2022 Football Power Index ratings and rankings!
The rating itself indicates approximately how much better or worse -- in points -- that team is predicted to be, relative to an average NFL team on a neutral field.
It is a predictive rating.
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Since 1999, ten NFL teams have closed as the favorite for every game of their season. The 2023 49ers will be one of them. None of these teams have won the super bowl
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People look to Peyton Manning as the ultimate "bad rookie year and still great". So, I used
@reinhurdler
for NFL play-by-play during 1998. Turns out Peyton was actually decent, especially for a rookie! For fun, if you remove interceptions, Peyton was borderline elite as a rookie
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Y’all notice anything interesting about the QBs these guards blocked for?
John Simpson allowed an average time to pressure of 3.32 seconds last season, 5th-longest from a left guard alignment (min. 300 pass blocks).
Jets left guards allowed a 9.7% pressure rate and a 2.74-second average time to pressure last season, 6th-highest and 4th-quickest in the
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Opponent team strength matters a lot in the NFL. For teams like the Jets, Steelers, Ravens, and Chiefs, the early season schedule is very tough before easing up in the second half of the year. The opposite is true for the Bengals, Broncos, and Chargers
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I have added some new features to the consensus big board app! The app now has data dating back to 2019 along with a new tab where you can explore where players actually went in relation to their consensus rank.
Link:
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Split out by day 1 and day 2, the Penix and Daniels QB selections really hurting the Falcons and Commanders.
Cardinals ruined all their MHJ consensus BB good will on day 2 with some reaches in round 3
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Some of my favorite visuals from the
@CuseAnalytics
Football Blitz competition. Play-action is a cheat code and team's should use it more often!
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The biggest draft day reaches according to the consensus board since 2016. Who will make the list this year?
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The Jets let Mike White throw on early downs before the game got out of hand. Let's give Zach Wilson that same opportunity before tossing him aside 🤷♂️
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“When I was asked to give”?
Students had to enter a competition for a *chance* to give the speech - she did this before knowing she’d be selected as the speaker…
The 2022 student Commencement speaker provided a statement after The Chronicle reported similarities between her Sunday speech and a 2014 Harvard commencement speech:
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The 2022 consensus big board does not currently have a RB inside the top 50 players.
The nerds have won.
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With the NBA Draft in less than 1 month, I am excited to release my NBA consensus big board application.
Link:
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Tight Ends:
Bowers comes in just slightly worse rated than Pitts
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Some basic text analysis of QB prospects since 2005 using ESPN scouting reports since I was inspired by
@Pavel_Vab
. Here I am predicting a prospect's grade coming out of college. Scouts like QB's who fit schemes, have the ability to run, and have mental processing!
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2021 4th down decision table dump. On the average 4th down, Mike Zimmer and the Vikings have faced an average difference in expected WP of go vs. expected WP of kick of 3 win percentage points (per
@ben_bot_baldwin
)!
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Tackles:
This is a *deep* tackle class at the top, Joe Alt the clear
#1
according to evaluators
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Two of the best drafted QBs we've seen since 1999 face off again tonight 🤩 (also, Mahomes my god)
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Jets have the longest active streak of scoring fewer than 30 points in a game, 7 games longer than the next longest streak
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It has been a long road for the Nets, but the creation of their Big 3 has led them to the top of the market in terms of implied championship odds.
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When a Duke opponent plays on the road this season:
@ Cameron Indoor: 9.5 FTA/game
@ anyone else: 14.4 FTA/game
The Cameron Crazies are making a difference (and ref bias is real)
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Just refreshed the data at for post combine updates
Added
@dpbrugler
's top 100 at the athletic as well!
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Underrated part of seeing the Nets live is KD getting hype when teammates make a play
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