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Irish Election Projections
@irishelectproj
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Projecting seats from polls for the next Dáil election since 2021.
Joined September 2023
@hennessy_ro Agree they did not expect that response but once they got it, it should have become clear they would achieve nothing by digging their heels in
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RT @Ireland_Votes: Seanad Éireann, members elected (33/60): FF: 8 FG: 8 SF: 4 LP: 1 GP: 1 SD: 1 AÚ: 1 IND: 9 First ever Senators elected…
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RT @Ireland_Votes: POLL/POBALBHREITH — Dáil Éireann FF: 24% SF: 22% (+3) FG: 20% (-2) SD: 8% (+1) LAB: 4% AON: 4% (-1) INDIRL: 4% (-1) GP:…
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RT @gavreilly: Should be noted now, before it's forgotten to time, that the current Seanad rules - requiring 'counting' to continue even wh…
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Hold the phone. Fianna Fáil transfers from Goldsboro are a little bit all over the place and fail to get Fitzpatrick ahead of Thomas. Labour under pressure now maybe? Either way, this should guarantee three seats for FF - on a panel where they should have won at least four.
Horrendous transfer leakage from FG in Tim Lombard's pile has almost certainly just elected O'Reilly - 20% of his transfers go to Aountú. On the other hand, Thomas's position looks unsalvageable, unless one of the FF candidate's piles holds a similarly undisciplined vote
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Horrendous transfer leakage from FG in Tim Lombard's pile has almost certainly just elected O'Reilly - 20% of his transfers go to Aountú. On the other hand, Thomas's position looks unsalvageable, unless one of the FF candidate's piles holds a similarly undisciplined vote
Seanad Ag panel: Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly is under serious pressure now. So is Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas. They need more FF transfers to leak to them, or the next FG pile to redistribute inefficiently, ideally both.
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Two very interesting vote management things to watch here - firstly if FF can get a fourth seat, but also if them and FG can squeeze Aontú out of one. Disciplined transfers would mean both happen. Let's see what actually does.
Messy auld count ahead. Hello to the fifty geeks spending the Friday of a long weekend on a Google Sheet
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RT @Ireland_Votes: On its final election as an independent parliamentary constituency, we think that Trinity College Dublin has not elected…
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