Finance website following hedge funds and insiders. Our monthly newsletter's stock picks beat the S&P 500 by 66 percentage points in 3.5 years. See the link:
Jim Simons steps down as the chairman of Renaissance Technologies.
Renaissance's most profitable and famous fund, Medallion, returned 39.1% annually after fees between 1988-2018. (66.1% before fees)
In 2020, it surged 76%.
Yearly Returns from "The Man Who Solved the Market"
Economist's Big Mac Index
Top 3 Overvalued Currencies:
Swiss Franc: +28.8%
Swedish Krona: +12.6%
Norwegian Krona: +7.5%
Top 3 Undervalued:
Turkish Lira: -64.5%
Russian Rouble: -68.0%
Lebanon Pound: -68.7%
Highlights from
#NIODay
- Chinese EV maker $NIO introduces new sedan ET7
- 150-kWh battery pack with 1000 km range (620 miles) on one charge
- 0 to 100 in 3.9 secs
- Partnership with $NVDA to develop self-driving cars
$TSLA $LI $XPEV
“The single greatest edge an investor can have is a long-term orientation.” - Seth Klarman
Why?
Because in the short-term, the price action is hard to interpret, and Wall Street has the edge over small guys. But in the long-term business fundamentals dictate the price.
Cathie Wood’s
@ARKInvest
manages five actively managed ETFs which crushed the markets in 2020.
Here are the Top 10 Holdings of each ETF and their portfolio weighing as of January 15:
$ARKK $ARKW $ARKG $ARKF $ARKQ
$APPL Apple founded 43 years ago today by Jobs and Wozniak. Before incorporation there was a third partner: Ronald Wayne.
Wayne gave up his partnership rights for $800 due to concerns from his previous business failures.
Lesson: Don’t let your past define your future.
Even though Robin Hood traders created turmoil in the markets last week, Robin Hood's client assets are relatively small in comparison.
Here is a comparison of leading commission-free brokerages:
$GM and $MSFT will lead a $2 billion funding round for the self-driving startup Cruise. Cruise is majority-owned by $GM and will be valued ~$30 billion post-funding.
The startup, mainly positioned as a competitor to Google's Waymo, will use $MSFT's Azure platform.
Happy Birthday Jeff! Today is Jeff Bezos' 57th birthday.
Here in his oldest known interview (1997), he explains how he came up with the idea for Amazon $AMZN:
Victory against the greedy Wall Street? Think again.
Institutions and hedge funds own most of the $GME shares. They made obscene profits as well, most likely more than retail investors.
Here are the potential profits of shareholders with > 1M shares:
Clean energy and ARK Invest (
@ARKInvest
) exchange traded funds absolutely crushed the market this year. $TAN $PBW $ARKG $QCLN $ARKW $ARKK
Top Performing ETFs of 2020:
“I put two children through Harvard by trading options. Unfortunately, they were my broker’s children.”
-
@jasonzweigwsj
from "The Devil's Financial Dictionary"
Novice Investor Mistakes to Avoid:
1. Buying into things you don’t truly understand
2. Overconfidence in your skills
3. Underestimating the role of luck
4. Not diversifying enough
5. Confusing speculating with investing
#Bitcoin
price tops $44k as $TSLA discloses buying $1.5 billion worth bitcoin. Here are all the publicly traded companies owning bitcoin in their balance sheets and their estimated profits:
Tesla $TSLA, MicroStrategy $MSTR, Square $SQ, $RIOT
Notable Insider Sales Reported Yesterday (> $5M)
The Trade Desk CEO Jeff Green reported selling shares worth $81.8 million at an average price of $802.5.
$TTD $BLNK $PINS $DXCM $CI $ONEM $DELL
Roaring Kitty, the Redditor who started the $GME craze on
#wallstreetbets
, keeps holding his $GME shares.
Today, the stock was down 60%, costing him a $13.5 million loss.
David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital returned 25% in the fourth quarter, their best-ever quarterly record.
Here are the highlights from David Einhorn’s Q4 Letter:
$TSLA $FUBO $DNMR
Gabe Plotkin’s Melvin Capital reportedly lost 53% in January due to $GME short squeeze. The fund’s current AUM is $8bn, including the $2.75bn received from Citadel and Point72.
Here are the fund’s yearly returns since its inception:
There are 234 funds holding $42.11 billion worth of $MSFT at the end of September. This makes Microsoft the second most popular stock among the hedge funds.
Moreover, $MSFT has most investors with positions worth over $1.0 billion.
Microsoft Revenue Breakdown by
@VisualCap
Elon Musk says use signal after WhatsApp policy change. $APPL $FB
Here is how Signal, iMessage, WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger compares in terms of data collection:
Icahn (
@Carl_C_Icahn
) sold over 50% of his stake in Herbalife back to the company for $600 million.
Previously, Icahn and
@BillAckman
got into a public clash over $HLF. Ackman, betting the stock is essentially worthless, lost ~$1 billion shorting $HLF. Titans made peace in 2014.
$NFLX is up 14.4% after Q4 ER. Subscribers reach 204m and company is close to being cash flow positive for 2021.
Growth is mostly attributed to original content, including local content for the international viewers. Now N. American viewers make up only 36.3% of the subscribers.
We interviewed Sio Capital's Michael Castor who predicted the coronavirus pandemic. Sio Capital returned more than 7% during the first quarter and beat the market by 27 percentage points.
Castor talked about $PFE $MRK $JNJ $GSK $GILD $UNH $MRNA $MDT
China produces ~90% of rare earth elements critical for high-tech equipment, including semiconductors and
#ev
motors.
Newly IPO-ed MP Materials $MP challenges Chinese dominance as the only US-based company engaged in rare earth metal production.
ECB President Lagarde:
-
#Bitcoin
is a highly speculative asset, which has conducted some funny business and totally reprehensible money laundering activity.
- There has to be regulation. This has to be applied upon global level because if there is an escape that will be used
Difference between 7%, 8% or 9% can seem negligible but in the long term it could make a huge difference. $10K compounded over 20 years becomes:
7% - $38 696
8% - $46 609
9% - $56 044
Notice commissions, taxes, and small expenses before they eat your returns!
Crude oil hits fresh highs ($53.07), never seen before February 2020.
2021 performance: $XLE is up 10.8%, Exxon $XOM is up 12.8%, Chevron $CVX is up 8.1%
Energy stocks are yet to recover their 2020 losses and trading at multi-year lows, waiting for vaccine rollout.
“Not one forecaster is predicting the stock market to decline in 2021. Everyone’s on the same side of the boat—I think you have to worry about that.” - Billionaire Investor Leon Cooperman
Focused on disruptive innovation, ARK manages 3 of the top 10 performing ETFs of 2020.
@CathieDWood
believes ARK funds will manage to return 20% CAGR in the next 5 years even if there is a pending market correction.
Read details and top holdings:
Clean energy and ARK Invest (
@ARKInvest
) exchange traded funds absolutely crushed the market this year. $TAN $PBW $ARKG $QCLN $ARKW $ARKK
Top Performing ETFs of 2020:
Share of different countries in MSCI's Emerging Markets Index:
Although China feels the pressure from the trade war, its share in the index has increased steadily in the last decade, from 18% to 38.4%
$EEM $FXI $EWZ $EWY $EWT
Roaring Kitty, the Redditor who started the $GME craze, posts an update on wallstreetbets showing he is still holding on to his shares.
Yesterday, he was down $5 million after the $GME plunged 30.7%. Today, the stock is down ~23% on pre-market.
"While short sellers probably will never be popular on Wall Street, they often are the ones wearing the white hats when it comes to looking for and identifying the bad guys!”
- Jim Chanos, the short-seller who became famous by correctly predicting the collapse of Enron
Worried about whether the bullish sentiment would continue into 2021? History may calm you a bit.
"10% or more gain the final two months of the year has equaled a higher S&P 500 the following year every single time since World War II"
$SPY $QQQ via
@LPLResearch
Future $AMZN CEO Andy Jassy -
@ajassy
:
52 years old, Harvard Alumni
Joined Amazon as a marketing manager in 1997
In 2003, he founded AWS with a team of 57 people, which brings in half of operating income right now!
Promoted to CEO of AWS in 2016
#Bitcoin
overtakes "Long Tech" as the most crowded trade in Bank Of America's Fund Manager Survey.
In another monthly study by Deutsche Bank, the surveyed managers rated
#Bitcoin
as the biggest bubble in the markets.
What can go wrong? $QQQ $SPY
“Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.” - Warren Buffett.
A gentle reminder that forecasts are not the future.
As
#Bitcoin
price and popularity surge, Coinbase IPO is greatly anticipated:
- 35m+ users in 100 countries
- $320B+ trade volume
- $25B+ assets on platform
- 1000+ employees
- Valued $8 billion in 2018 funding round
-
@a16z
&
@ycombinator
are early investors
Would you invest?
$UBER is expected to benefit from vaccine rollout but notable insiders have been reporting sales.
Most recently, Softbank’s Vision Fund reported sale of shares worth $2 billion at an avg. price of $53.46, trimming 17% of their holdings.
Profit taking?
$JPM reports Q4 EPS of $3.07, $0.45 better than avg. analyst estimate of $2.62. Revenues came in at $29.2 billion versus $28.7 billion estimate.
$JPM is the most popular financial large cap stock (12th most popular overall) among hedge fund portfolios.
iPhone manufacturer Foxconn and Chinese automaker Geely create a joint venture to provide manufacturing services for the global auto industry.
Recently, Geely also announced a partnership with internet giant Baidu to develop self-driving electric cars.
$GELYF $BIDU
$QS QuantumScape, founded by Stanford University scientists, plans to revolutionize the
#ev
market through its solid-state lithium-metal battery technology, which has a lot of advantages compared to the existing lithium-ion batteries.
Facebook has the highest average revenue per user (ARPU) among social media companies.
Yet growth is slowing, and $FB seeks to improve the monetization of its ecosystem, including
#WhatsApp
and Instagram. Hence more privacy challenges.
$FB $TWTR $SNAP $PINS
Renaissance names CEO Peter Brown as the sole chairman.
Many expected Jim Simons' son, Nathaniel Simons, would have the position as he was named co-chairman along with his father last year.
Jim Simons steps down as the chairman of Renaissance Technologies.
Renaissance's most profitable and famous fund, Medallion, returned 39.1% annually after fees between 1988-2018. (66.1% before fees)
In 2020, it surged 76%.
Yearly Returns from "The Man Who Solved the Market"
Steve Jobs introduced the first iPhone 14 years ago today and created the smartphone market by selling 1.4 million units in 2007.
$APPL has sold more than 2.2 billion iPhones ever since.
One state that
#retirees
may consider moving to is
#Oklahoma
. Per $RDFN, Oklahoma has a median home price of just $237,000, approximately 58% of the national median. 🏡 $BLK $FG
Join us as we look at the 15 Best Places to Retire in Oklahoma:
$GME short interest is $8.82BN; 27.12M shs shorted; 53.15% SI % Float; 34.1% S3 SI % Float; 26% borrow fee and easing to 10%. Shs shorted have decreased by -35.2M over the last week. Shorts are down -$13.38BN in 2021, which includes up +$1.93BN on today's -22% move.
@CNBC
#s3data
$NIO, $TSLA's competitor in China reports delivering 43 728 vehicles in 2020.
The stock is up 1200% this year, taking the market cap of the company to $75B, making the company 4th most valuable automaker after Volkswagen.
$TSLA reports delivering 0.5 million cars in 2020 in line with expectations. Shanghai factory also starts deliveries this January with the ultimate goal of delivering 250K cars per year.
In comparison, 2nd most valuable automaker Toyota $TM produces ~10m vehicles annually.
$BABA Alibaba is nosediving (down 30%) since Jack Ma criticized Chinese officials regarding banking rules and got Ant IPO got canceled. He is missing from the public for 2 months.
The stock is a hedge fund darling, among the 5 most popular stock picks.
$AMZN Q4 Results:
Revenue: $125.56 billion vs. $119.70 billion expected
Earnings Per Share: $14.09 vs. $7.34 expected
Shares trade sideways on after hours trading. Bezos wıll be stepping down as CEO, and will be replaced AWS chief Andy Jassy.
$TSLA reports delivering 0.5 million cars in 2020 in line with expectations. Shanghai factory also starts deliveries this January with the ultimate goal of delivering 250K cars per year.
In comparison, 2nd most valuable automaker Toyota $TM produces ~10m vehicles annually.
Matematiksel modellerimiz Turkiye'de 500.000 kiside koronavirus enfeksiyonu oldugunu ve ölü sayisinin 15 Nisan'a kadar en azindan 5000 olacagini muhafazakar bir sekilde tahmin ediyor.
#koronavirusturkiye
#koronavirusturkey
1/ After a roller coaster year, $SPY S&P 500 index fund returned 17.46% (plus the 1.57% dividend yield).
Yet half of this return came from only 3 stocks: $AAPL, $AMZN and $MSFT, making up 16.25% of the 500 company fund.
SPY Top Holdings:
NYSE started delisting of Chinese stocks with ties to Chinese Military.
China Mobile $CHL, China Telecom $CHA and China Unicorn $CHU became no longer suitable for listing. Companies are also listed in Hong Kong.
Source: Reuters
Communications equipment market is expected to reach $2.2T by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 17.8%.
The key drivers for the industry are cellular stations and next-generation equipment for 5G networks.
Bullish for: $QCOM $LITE $JNPR $CSCO $MSI $CMBM $ERIC $CALX $SATS $CIEN
Have you had a long and relaxing Sunday sleep? Hope you did.
It is estimated US loses $150 billion annually due to sleep deprivation.
Here is average sleeping hours charted vs GDP via
@TheEconomist