innocent bystander
@innoc_bystander
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conservationist (unless it’s a golf course)
Joined October 2011
Poor kid. They don’t have rehab for Latina addiction.
This Colombian nanny is a perfect example of this practice in New York:
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My man, one of your employees is mining crypto in the basement.
A Bronx barber tells Trump that his energy bills went from $2,100 to $15,000 since Biden and Kamala took over. Trump’s response: “WHAT??”
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As someone who lived through the CO fires (old neighborhood gone, new house was .5 mile), here are some things that are going to happen:. -cleanup crews are going spray special green foam over the sites to stop wind from picking up toxic ash.-Use PPE if you touch it or ash.
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Just had an insane phone call with a principal at a brokerage house in a major metro. Apparently he just got pitched an AI solution that makes cold calls. Good associate makes 100+/day. This does 35k/10 min. They did a test run and it’s almost indistinguishable from a human.
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-aftermath is going to happen painfully slow. From powerlines to gas lines to environmental remediation. -there are going to be thousands and thousands of affluent displaced people. Demand for rentals and prices are going to soar in nice neighborhoods.
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The community will be stronger in the end and things will be rebuilt, often better. But it’s gonna big suck for a while. Some people handle stress very poorly. Be kind and help where you can.
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-many (most?) of the older houses are going to be *illegal* to rebuild to similar spec because of code, energy, etc. There will be outcry and possibly (like we had here) special rules applied to any rebuilds like blanket code variances. This will make adjacent areas furious.
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I don’t want to be all ‘woo woo’ but here we are. Bought a grounding mat for my bed last week on someone’s advice. Haven’t slept more than 6.5 hours, average of 5.5, and I’m not fucking tired. No brain fog. Waking up at 5:30 with no alarm. I like sleep. This is shocking to me.
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-adjacent school districts are going to overflow. It’s super disruptive for everyone. -car lots and furniture stores are going to be overrun. -pets are displaced everywhere. If you see one and can help, great, but don’t be an idiot.
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-there will be opportunists making cash offers on land well below market. Some underinsured people will likely accept these lowballs. If you don’t want to rebuild, and can afford it, wait and sell once everything is stabilized.
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-there’s going to be serious insurance battles and horror stories. Nothing new here. -very soon people are going to be extremely focused on the origin of the fire.-out here it was a faulty utility line. But unfavored parties, including a cult, were blamed throughout. Let it play.
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@ashleevance Their fintech solution that converted credit card points to bitcoin was no longer inspiring.
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Really trying to wrap my head around why VCs are loosing their goddamned minds, given:. 1) A significant portion of these deposits will be recouped, and,.2) you’re looking at a couple weeks before that happens (2 pay periods?). And I think I’ve figured it out.
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Within 5 years only 10% of inbound phone calls will be from something with a prefrontal cortex. 0% of customer service will be humans.
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Friend of mine just quit his job. Was making like $500-600k/yr. Should have been paid $1mm/yr. Co. will lose someone making them $5-10mm/yr., whom they can’t replace, over a comparably small amount of money. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
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@Sergatx Image 40,000 people who immediately and in tandem need new— bed frames, dressers, mattresses, dinner tables, utensils, cookware, food storage, luggage, cars, sneakers, backpacks, laptops, dog beds, couches, TVs, etc. etc.
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They do not want to see the next AMZN go public at $18/share. That is a nightmare. The ‘protect the depositors’ line is a Trojan horse. They want full blow bailout. But they can’t do that until they get the Fed at the table by faking an aneurism.
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Haven’t been to prime time gym (6pm) since my early 20s. Did tonight. It’s a strip club. What’s going on?.
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SVB provided special products to startups that allowed Founders and Leadership Teams to cash out before the cash out. This completely eliminated the pain of not going public earlier.
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I’m 32. I’m in pretty good shape. I drink mildly. I exercise (cardio and weights) frequently. Recently I’ve been waking up at 4-5am without fail and can’t go back to sleep. Never had this issue before. F*cking exhausting. Any thoughts?.
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This is fucking embarrassing. We are so scared of letting a non-systemically significant bank fail and giving sophisticated depositors a 10% haircut because their “unicorn” C-Suite is, at best, too dumb to know what a cash sweep is and, at worst, did and forewent it for a boat.
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The year is 2044. There are only two jobs. Private credit analyst & prostitute.
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There are very few other banks who offer these solutions, and certainly none at the scale of SBV. If they disappear then Founders will need to go public earlier to retail talent and scale.
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It also allowed firms to offer late round SBC to employees who, once vested, could also access these products. This meant companies could scale indefinitely, growing their private valuation, until the VC-laden board decided it was time to dump it on the baggies (NYSE).
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Our entire financial system is held together by some employee at BNY Mellon in Pune, India reconciling input errors on CUSIPs for dozens of hundred million dollar trades. Every M-F. Forever.
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You are a billionaire. You’re retired. You can own exactly 3 house, and fly commercial 1st class between them. Where are the houses?. 1) Vail (1 month winter, 1 month summer).2) San Diego (Oct-May).3) Nantucket (June-Sep).
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@boo “I just got laid off from Twitter. I was the person responsible for the ads that were completely irrelevant to your life and the in-app browser that was slower than dirt and didn’t save payment info.”.
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Lol.
bro the VCs are literally trying to get FRB to fail so taxpayers bail out their burrito delivery companies, I’m a Maoist now.
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“Not only did we give the Boomers a historic bull market leading up to retirement, we then handed them a 5% risk-free return to dump all those profits into. It’s a golden fucken ticket.”.-my brother reviewing my dads portfolio.
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My wife has planned and talked about this camping trip for months. Didn’t ask any question until today. She’s 37 weeks pregnant.She booked a campsite at 10,300 ft.High of 46 degrees, low of 29.Raining.She’s 37 weeks pregnant. This is a trap. Only ends in divorce. Not going.
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Something very strange about going to a hyper-desirable place, where even doctors and lawyers start to get priced out, and realize theirs like no kids anywhere. And the ones that are, are on the playground by themselves with a nanny watching. Super dystopian.
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Convinced not paying salespeople because of an executives ego, a la “I’m more important so he/she can’t make more than me”, are how many great companies die.
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EBITDA meets FCF.
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I will also not be having sex with any guys for the next 4 years.
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If anyone wants an entry level Asset Management/Finance or Leasing job that pays $70k/yr+ where rent is 1/2 of NYC, and you have a firm that’s been around since the 50s, my DMs are open. Good experience doesn’t mean taking below market comp.
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Call with a developer friend who runs in a pretty ridiculous circle. “All of my friends have been capital called in the last 8 weeks.”.
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“The most underrated investing traits are patience and having your career coincide with a 30-year record decline in interest rates.”.
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When your wife’s out of town and you ordered 2 large meatlovers with cinnamon breadsticks
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@PaulinaJones Tell them you hired an electrician who notified you that a fault in the Brinks system was the source of the whole fire. You are planning to send the report to the DA if the account isn’t cancelled and credited by EOD.
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And— to be clear— this move by the FDIC does nothing to stop contagion. Not a damn thing. Just watch. It penalizes responsible banks in favor of a politically powerful subset of the economy. Jose Canseco of moral hazard without fixing shit. End rant.
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Sometimes when I can’t sleep I think to myself, “What if we let Bernie Madoff go on a apology road show instead of immediately arresting him?”.
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There are going to be giant PE funds that allocate 25% to buying levered RE and 75% to ousting politicians in those markets and replacing them with politicians that enforce basic criminal and contract law, and those funds are gonna return a zillion percent IRR.
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Honest question. If you have 100 applicants with $10mm+ net worths and perfect credit and you can’t raise rents over X%, which they can all easily afford, how do you pick who to rent to?.
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Also, dreams are a little intense. Wife is complaining about the same.
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Friends driveway 70 miles from wolf release area. 70 lb male GSP paw for reference.
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Maybe a good time to point out that development is crazy hard/risky and loans PGed, and a BK can be the equivalent of an attorney getting disbarred career-wise. Those who take on that insane risk to deliver things society needs should be revered. Too often, it’s the opposite.
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I know of some Raising Canes doing $12mm in annual sales. That’s $230k/wk. $33k/day.$2,200/hr.$36/minute.@ $12 avg ticket that’s 2,750 orders/day.1mm orders/yr.
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So let me get this straight-. Cardone raises REPE Fund with OPM.Buys deals with his $ for X.Sells deals to Fund for X+Y.Takes acquisition and mgmt fee.Finances deal thru 3rd party he owns.Deal fails erasing equity.His lending company takes over at .65 on the $. Is that it?.
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@bavedikian I did the math and mine makes about $300/mo from me, give or take, on ~$150k I’m guessing he put down. Just sent him a picture of a 30 y/o tree that died over the winter. Base completely rotted. Going to fall on the deck. Est. $10k to remove, or 2 years of profit.
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Remember when Mnuchin wanted to issue 50- and 100-yr bonds at negative real rates and everyone laughed at it because Trump parroted it?. What an epic miss.
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Nick is smart and I generally like what he puts out, but if you are not both 1) a hyper sophisticated CRE operator and 2) a hyper sophisticated and diverse retail operator…. …well stay 150k miles away from any strategy resembling this. I’ll tell you why—.
The wealthiest person I know prints millions out of thin air in the real estate business. This is what he does. A thread.
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Just arrived at the Disney Four Season’s. Honestly, underwhelming.
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@johnhfio Ahhh yes, turning James Bond into a sellout to capture a share of the notoriously profitable suit market. And his home Country has a particularly ruthless and dry sense of humor. Good luck!.
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I’ve been on here for 12 years and don’t even have 5k followers. If you think I’m going to another bar when this one closes, you’re out of your mind.
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The reason W2s suck the life out of you is because you have median intellect people telling you things assuredly for years. And eventually you work up to talking to really smart people and none of them are sure about anything. Then your brain breaks, but you have a mortgage.
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Then we drink wine with friends and say things like “man that Gen-Z is so pathetic. They want to socialize this and nationalize that.” Jeeze, I wonder why. If it was actually nationalized at least the profits would flow to the general account.
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Your thirties is just going back and forth between—. “I will work 100 hours a week and die to make this deal happen”. To. “My toddler brought home Ebola”.
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There is $1.5T in commercial real estate debt maturing in the next 3 years. The bulk of this debt was financed when base interest rates were near zero. Much of it was risky bridge financing in a ZIRP environment, where if interest rates stayed flat, we would make tons of money.
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Not gonna get into it, but had the absolute week from hell in my personal life. Without close, non-transactional friendships I have no idea what we would have done. When your name gets called for hell week, there’s not enough $ to buy the type of help these friends give.
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@ericlister If I’m consciously averting my eyes in the gym it’s supposed to be when the hundred year old dude in the locker room is strutting it.
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Imagine having an account for 2 days, having by all accounts legit experience, exponentially growing your following, and then…. Targeting the likable bald guy, that tweets about Chilis, as some sort of grifter?.
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Why do U.S. supermarkets charge such a high markups? Gross margin in the U.S. is 25%, and 8% in the U.K.
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Pro Tip:. If you own the business or are the “boss”, there is absolutely zero reason for you to stay at the holiday party for more than 60 minutes.
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So this morning my wife told me a Sales Rep she worked with for like 5 years was murdered. In a protest. In Los Angeles. “Everyone’s favorite rep. Nicest guy.”.“What was his name?”.“Paul Kessler. Had the sweetest wife and kids.”. Been fucking pissed all day.
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Here’s the reality with Tides, folks. They are/were really good at what they did. Better than most. You literally can’t do what they did without having massive skill in management, construction, acquisitions, etc.
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If a really hot girl is earnestly asking you technical questions and isn’t autistic, she works for Veritas or the FBI. Stop destroying your lives hornballs.
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Fucking hate firing people. Even if they deserve it. Worst part of every job.
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Neighbors stopped by and dropped these off (Wisconsin natives). “Can only get ‘em in Wisconsin. Let us know what you think.”. I think Wisconsin knows a thing or two, cause they’ve drank a thing or two.
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“Bank runs are about to start!”. Sir, have you ever been to a grocery store or a mall? These people, with real jobs and (grand)children, have neither Twitter accounts nor watch CNBC.
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A large percentage of people I talk to believe that if you win a lawsuit that the lawyer gods just Venmo you the amount you won like it’s f-ing DraftKings. No folks, you need to collect. And a massive amount of “winners” never see a dollar.
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John Dimiceli looks like a guy who bought all the real estate in the world in 2013 for a 10er and a case of Rolling Rock, never raised rents, and then sold it for a proforma 5 cap in the Summer of 2021 to people who think he’s stupid.
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@HighyieldHarry Based on the DCFs you actually didn’t get a $100k bonus, you got an $87,300 bonus, but you get to pay tax on the $100k.
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You mean if I pull forward 15 years of asset degradation expenses to offset my ordinary income and only hold the asset for 9 months before losing it to the bank, the IRS will screw me?. Communism.
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The white incels are fighting the Indian nerds?. I’m sure all the beautiful women are on the edge of their seats.
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Everyone who tells me a recession is imminent then tells me approx. 30 seconds later about how excited they are for their trip to Spain.
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Absolutely love how Mexicans, who’ve worked their asses off and were taken advantage of for 30+ years, are now like “$40/hr or GTFO”. And people have to pay it. American Dream baby.
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My best friend quit drinking ~5 years ago. He runs 5-8 miles every morning, 7 days a week, without compromise. Feel like they’re not unrelated. Chicken or egg, etc.
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Stupidest thing ever is people saying the US can’t afford to keep rates here. We can keep them here as long as we god-damned want. Until EMs are smoldering ruble, the Brits cant afford mash with their bangers, the French are working in August, and Canada is ruled by wildlings.
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I’ve fucked up before, but I’ve never had a “Macys accountant loses $154mm” fuck up.
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“Slaving away at my 9-5 banking job”
My #1 regret in life:. I wish I didn't waste my 20s slaving away at my 9-5 banking job. 10 pieces of brutally honest career advice that I’d give to my younger self (so you can avoid my failures):.
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Ok, so wife wanted to look at a new housing development across town where her friends live. One of largest public spec home builders in the country. Need my math checked on this one:.
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