⭐️ 2025 Macro Overview ⭐️ #NQ / #SP500: The index’s price-to-book ratio stands at 21, within historical averages of 18-23. While not a bubble, it’s near bubble territory. It wouldn’t be illogical for new highs to be reached in 2025, followed by a correction. There are undervalued stocks available. For example, I bought AMD at $116 (200-day moving average), Qualcomm at $150, and Nike at $71, capitalizing on its tax-year-end selloff despite strong earnings. Although the index appears overvalued, many lagging opportunities remain. A rotation is inevitable. #Europe: The Euro, stuck around 1.10, dropped to 1.03 recently but has since recovered. Without German recovery, it may test the 1.00 level or even go below. If it dips under parity, while media declares “the Euro is over, the EU is falling apart,” it could be a buying opportunity. #USBonds: TMF (20-year Treasury ETF) formed a double bottom, and I entered at 39.6. This level is either the bottom or very close to it. The US strong economy narrative keeps the dollar firm and bond yields high. However, this cannot last indefinitely. If it does, equities cannot rise. Bonds will rally when the dollar weakens. #USD/TRY: Options indicate short-term USD/TRY upside, but spreads for the rest of the year remain low. Extreme moves in USD/TRY seem unlikely as long as current monetary policies continue. They will likely keep TRY depreciating below inflation levels unless a political shock occurs (never rule this out in Turkey). If you’re heavily invested in deposits and are worried, you can hedge via VIOP. It’s a complex topic; Emrah explains it well here: #BIST (Turkish Equities): I’ve accumulated positions at 240-250 USD-index levels. The trend remains intact with higher lows and highs. I’m holding for now. #Bitcoin: The 107,700 region was a trend-based first TP, which was hit and has since pulled back. While this pattern might continue for a while, we will likely see higher levels in the future. #Ethereum: Retail traders went all-in on longs due to Trump-related hype. A reset was necessary as open interest soared. The $2,800-$3,350 range is roughly a buy zone, with expectations of higher levels ahead. On the ETH/BTC chart, watch for a double bottom formation. #Altcoins: Dominance is trending back toward 60%+, which may form a double top. This correlates with ETH/BTC—if ETH/BTC forms a double bottom and dominance a double top, we could see a short altcoin rally. Whether those who bought at the peak can rally is unclear. For instance, a coin I won’t name that was $1.20 recently hit $0.40. Buying that at $0.40 near an ETH/BTC bottom gives potential for profit. But buying it at $1.20 with overly optimistic expectations leaves gains to chance. Altcoins’ real, sustained rises depend on increasing money supply (QE). For an altcoin to outperform Bitcoin consistently, it requires substantial external factors, which have been rare since 2022. Correct timing is crucial. If I have new thoughts, expectations, or see changes in the macro environment for 2025, I’ll share updates. Finance is dynamic, not for tribalism.

I'm trading LTF on #Bitcoin, but it's not enjoyable at all. The range is too tight, and the price action is sluggish. Rest is on the chart:

Will sell soon 😂

I was in the red, but the strategy was clean. I identified the VAH-POC-VAL levels of #Ethereum from the first accumulation range and created a tiered plan based on these levels. Despite significant deviations, the price eventually returned to the levels. With a solid strategic plan, it’s difficult to stay in a loss for long. Now, I’m selling the lowest buys from this level. This way, I increase my liquidity both by securing profits from the lower entries and by maintaining confidence in my short position. If another sell-off occurs during the U.S. market open, I’ll use this liquidity to buy back in.

Ok, I’m 45% in #Ethereum as planned. My short positions performed amazingly and helped me acquire semi-free coins. Now, it’s time to wait. Interestingly, despite this plan, the portfolio is already in the red within just one day. For HODLers, today must be a real pain in the ass.

Tomorrow 19:00 #barbarians 👊

#Ethereum I dislike how Ethereum projects keep begging for price increases from their official X accounts. This is cringe and why I sold my $ETH at $3,400 again, after buying around $3,000. Turns out, it wasn’t a bad decision after all. Simple: If ETH can't hold above the 50-week MA, it will drop to the $2,500–$2,600 range. It’s very weak against #Bitcoin right now, but I believe ETH's time will come later this year once this mess is over.

#ASML just delivered another earnings report that shattered the expectations of those who stick to outdated narratives. You see, the same people who said "China is the biggest buyer, if they stop buying, companies will collapse" or "China is making its own chips now, bro" have now gone completely silent. Yes, China’s demand is slowing—that part was correct. But while orders were expected to increase by 15%, they actually surged by 200%. Not a decrease, but an explosion in demand. How does that happen? It proves that this cycle isn’t ending anytime soon. The real game in this sector isn’t just about developing language models. There’s an innovation cycle in play, and denying it is pointless. Today is FED day, but even more importantly, we’re heading into two weeks of earnings season. Some might ask, “What does this have to do with crypto?”—well, it’s heavily connected. Look at Deepseek—it had nothing to do with crypto, but when it dropped, the market took a hit. This is why clearing out the FUD zones is crucial for opening up the upside. As long as we keep seeing earnings like this and strong forward guidance, the bull market won’t end. Now, you might ask, "Where’s the bull run in altcoins?" Well, just in Solana alone, there are 30 million altcoins floating around. If we slaughtered a bull in our neighborhood, there wouldn’t even be a small piece of meat for everyone. Yet people wonder why millions of random altcoins aren’t pumping. Some are rallying, others aren’t. If you’re buying altcoins, choose wisely. For a 2021-style, across-the-board bull run, you’d need the entire world’s liquidity to flood into crypto, which is highly unlikely.

The right answer (not hard to figure out): If it can’t go up, it goes down for a while to fuel up ⛽️ Think simple

Crypto has had every possible good news. At this point, the only thing missing is a “God sent crypto” headline. Yet, the price still struggles to rise and lacks FOMO. That should mean something to you, doesn’t it?

As expected : more pain 📉 Think simple 🍏

Longs are paid off as well. EQ is acting like a magnet. I’m expecting a bit more pain, so I’m holding my ATH shorts while taking profits on my longs. Think simple 📉📈📉📈 = 💰

Took another long from VAH zone with short profits. What a day!!! I love this game 📉📈📉📈

LOL Vah zone hit - Tp2 from short

Alright… Wasn’t that hard really 😂 EQ target hit. Took profit from short position

The 109K level, which represents the ATH liquidity, is a crucial pivot zone. Took a low risk short position aganist my longs. If the price fails to hold above the previous ATH (somewhere around 108K), it will target the EQ level—the midpoint between the last rally’s starting low at 99,500 and the ATH at 109,950. (99,500 + 109,950) / 2 = 104,725 On Trump day, I don’t recommend trading for beginners.

Fantastic drop to support levels, so I longed both to #Bitcoin’s ATH. Ethereum is still acting like a scam. Closing both positions. Enough gains 🔥 Trump day will be volatile, and I don’t have a stable connection in the USA with a VPN.

😂😂😂😂😂

Insider trading. It should be illegal, but hey… the guy’s literally the president now. Some “random guy” throws $1M into a meme coin on Solana. A new one gets minted every single day with the same recycled names. I could launch a Trump Coin in 60 seconds. Would you ape in with $1M?

I ALSO THINK; Trump starting day will be “buy the rumour, sell the news” type of day

Next week is also a big earnings week, and I’m not expecting bad numbers.