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Pandu
@haringsresearch
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don't be like Mackay. ride but recognize the bubble
Germany
Joined November 2017
Agree with this. There is a very high chance this BTC ATH will be the last for a long time, potentially forever. Diminishing returns on price and all onchain indicators while buyer-cohort rises exponentially and can rise at the same pace any further. Biggest tailwind happened..
So here's that Bitcoin post I mentioned. Please study the chart and read the text on it. We know that stock markets underperform gold for a decade or more after a Capital Rotation Event (CRE), and that a CRE could be close. Will BTC continue to follow NASDAQ ? Poll below...
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This was definitely the dip to buy
The Nvidia crash yesterday had ripple effects on the crypto market, with CME traders rapidly de-risking. Bitcoin futures basis fell to negative terrain for the first time since August 2023, while notional OI saw its largest daily decline ever of a massive 17,225 BTC
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ELI5: 2014 had hundreds of tokens -> big altseason 2017 had thousands of tokens -> big altseason 2021 had thousands to hundreds of thousands of tokens -> big altseason But sure, this time, just because we stay on the growth trend, the altseason will completely skip lmao
couple of thoughts on dilution™ Argument: exponential growth of tokens fragments liquidity into too many shallow pools, preventing sustained pumps because capital is spread too thinly. Counterarguments • Liquidity is pareto-distributed → 90% of tokens have negligible liquidity, so their existence doesn’t meaningfully fragment the market. • Market cap ≠ token count → Total crypto value can grow independently of token supply (e.g., Bitcoin’s dominance persists despite 20k+ altcoins). A common mistake in the dilution argument is the assumption that liquidity and attention are evenly or near-evenly distributed across tokens, which is far from reality. While most people don’t explicitly make this claim, charts showing the exponential increase in token count often allude to this idea. If you're going to assume dilution, you need to make an argument about how liquidity and attention are distributed; while it's valid to claim some level of dilution exists even when ignoring 95% of tokens, the illustration using 27.000.000 shitcoins on Solana is an overstatement that misrepresents the actual impact of token proliferation. *Kaiko data from Q2 2023 but logic persists, gonna look for more recent data
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@dl_eans Every alt usually retraces between 90-95% from it's ATH. If 120-160$ becomes the top, then $6-$16 will be the next bottom
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