Geoff D. Porter
@geoffdporter
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President of North Africa Risk Consulting * Non-Resident Fellow at the Combating Terrorism Center at the United States Military Academy * Prof. Fordham Univ.
Joined February 2011
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The Five Principles of
#Algeria
Foreign Policy:
1. Algeria does not chase trends
2. The truth will prevail - however long it takes
3. Sovereignty for all, regardless
4. Algeria is friendly with everyone and friends with no one
5. Western Sahara & Palestine are redlines
Fin
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Just back from Barcelona giving a brief on North Africa and European Energy Security.
Key Takeaway:
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Simultaneously baffled by and jealous of the guy next to me in economy on an 8hr flight who:
- did not get up
- did not watch movies
- did not read
- did not sleep
- did not work
How?
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French military aircraft supporting Operation Barkhane after
#Algeria
overflight ban.
Gives you a sense of the scope of the impact.
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Well, alright then.
NARCO getting some coverage in
#Algeria
#الجزائر ستكون الفائز في لعبة الطاقة الدولية
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Lots of pretty bad Anglophone commentary on
#Algeria
these days, but this one in Newsweek has got to be (among) the worst.
A thread.
1/20
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For everyone keeping score at home, three days after 🇮🇱
@Israel_MOD
confirms participation in 🇺🇸
@USAfricaCommand
African Lion exercise in 🇲🇦
#Morocco
, 🇩🇿Algerian President
@TebbouneAmadjid
hosts 🇵🇸 Mahmoud Abbas & Ismail Haniyeh to commemorate 60 years of independent
#Algeria
.
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Your Occasional Reminder That
#Algeria
Is Really Big:
Tin Zaouatine, where yesterday's events occurred, is farther from Algiers than Algiers is from London.
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#US
&
#EU
relations w/
#Algeria
are increasingly decoupled from its relations with
#Russia
.
Washington, Brussels, Madrid, Paris, & Rome are all coming to realize that
#Algeria
is going to be
#Algeria
: "Friendly with everyone, friends with no one."
And that may be just enough.
Politically Algeri is looking elsewhere to find flexible partners. A growing military spending (🇩🇿is the 3rd largest purchaser of🇷🇺military equipments)does not bode well with the long-term strategic partnership the🇪🇺energy commissioner announced in October
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@Jafkech
Sahbi, I stated two facts:
1. The price of bottled gas went from 10Dh to 12.5 Dh and 30Dh to 40Dh.
2. Afriquia Gaz, owned by the PM, is the largest bottled gas distributor in the country.
Neither is "fake."
You drew your own conclusions. That's on you. Not me.
دبر راسك
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So some clarification on the Africa Lion exercise.
- the southernmost exercise site is NORTH of the dividing line between
#Morocco
and the disputed territory.
- the location is in Mahbes PROVINCE, not Mahbes CITY.
- quand meme, it's less than 5km north of the line.
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The grain problems in
#Morocco
are scary.
Per US Department of Agriculture report:
- domestic barley production ⬇️70% y-o-y
- domestic wheat production ⬇️78% y-o-y
- global grain prices⬆️30% in 2021
- global grain prices⬆️ 60% since Feb 2022
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Man,
@FWehrey
can write.
He's one of those very rare analysts that combines exceptional research with sound analysis and an engaging, uncomplicated writing style.
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So even though
#Algeria
pays a price for not lobbying, even though other countries write Algeria's story for it, often in a way that defames and sullies it, Algeria is still very unlikely to hire lobbyists.
And that's that.
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Re-upping North Africa Risk Consulting's "
#Algeria
's Foreign Policy Five Pillars"
Just in case anyone’s entertaining any ideas and looking to engage with Algiers any time soon.
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New NARCO ANALYSIS: Getting Busy in
#Algeria
I’ve been working on Algeria for a long time. And I've never been busier.
The unprecedented pace is consequence of the unanticipated conflagration of two factors.
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3) Lobbying requires catering, kowtowing, and sucking-up.
But did the moudjahidin suck-up?
Did the moudjahidin kowtow or cater?
Hell no!
And contemporary
#Algeria
will not betray the moudjahidin’s legacy by doing any of these things either.
4/5
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Da fuck?
"The Maghreb pipeline"?
"Wagner Group's occupation in
#Algeria
"?
Do people actually listen to this garbage? No really. Do they?
I can't even.
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16] So, yes, Algeria is playing catch-up.
But that’s only because France gave Morocco a head-start by making the colony into a museum from the get-go.
France made Morocco to be sold.
Whereas in Algeria, France eradicated it.
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On the one hand,
#Algeria
is finally stable and secure.
On the other hand, the Russia/Ukraine conflict has made Algeria more important to Europe and the US than it has been at any moment in the past.
تحيا الجزائر و صحا عيدكم
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Okay.
Good.
One down, one to go.
Now I can go back to trying to figure out who is president of
#Algeria
.
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