Victo☈ Gensini, PhD, CCM
@gensiniwx
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Associate professor @NIUlive studying hail 🧊, tornadoes 🌪, forecasting 🔜, thunderstorms ⚡️, and climate 🌎. Join us!
Sugar Grove, IL
Joined January 2013
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This was a jaw-dropping scene from June 8th, 2019, shortly after the Goodland, KS supercell was able get rooted in the deeper moisture on the nose of a strengthening low-level jet. These sets of sequences were taken from near the Winona to Russell Springs, KS corridor.
#kswx
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Beautiful post-convective sky west of Stratton, CO.
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Yesterday was just an appetizer for Tuesday in my opinion (it’s looked that way for a few days now). All ingredients are in place for a widespread, significant severe weather outbreak. This will certainly warrant another high-end MDT or HIGH risk.
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Hi
@AOC
, I'm the author of the 🌪️alley shifting east study that you reference . I'd be happy to talk with you more re: what we know about severe thunderstorms/tornadoes and climate change.
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Straight out of a Sci-Fi film, this was the scene under turbulent "Whales Mouth" before sunset near Faith, SD on my birthday (6/10) last year. You don't need tornadoes to make a spectacular skyscape!
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Excellent mammatus display east of Artesia, NM. 7:09p local.
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The “Tri-State Tornado” was likely just surpassed by the “Quad-State Tornado”. What a day (and it’s not over).
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Timlapse of a haboob that just blasted through Lubbock, TX.
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There have been 762 tornado warnings issued by the NWS since the morning of May 15th. What an incredibly active period of U.S. tornado frequency! Hats off to the folks at SPC and local NWS offices who no doubt saved hundreds of lives over this two week stretch of mayhem.
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Stopped just outside Tulia, TX for a flight of significant hail.
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'Twas the night before the high risk, when all through the town, Not a creature was stirring, all fearing a frown. The forecasts were hung on the channels with care, In hopes that tornadoes would not soon be there.
The families were nestled all snug in their beds, While visions
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Numerous interview requests streaming in re: recent tornadoes and climate change. No, climate change did not cause the recent rash of US tornadoes. Climate change does not cause any given extreme weather event. It does alter background probabilities of the PDF curve. 1/8
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Tornado continues east of Silverton, TX as of 8:22p local.
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Happy to announce that the funding roulette wheel finally landed on our number!
Moral of the story...be persistent and do not give up!
#NSFFunded
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...but what you should really be here for is the 📸🌪️⚡️... 5/21/20 in sw KS.
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It’s going to be one of “those” days. Meteorologists everywhere can relate.
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Pro tip: zero-metering tornadoes is a really, really dumb goal unless you're looking to become a casualty.
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Tornado east of Arapahoe, KS 4:45p local. Lasted for ~7 min. There was another simultaneous tornado immediately east that was more difficult to video due to rain.
@NWSGoodland
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😭 Brad is a great friend and colleague. Please keep him in your thoughts.
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Holy crap...just finished the most high-profile interview of my career. That was nerve racking!
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Full video of the Arapahoe, KS tornado (western most circulation). 6x speed up
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My colleague Tom Pingel made some pretty sweet 3-D prints of hurricane
#Irma
. IR satellite on left and RADAR on right.
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Great example of corn-induced transpiration fog this morning across northern IL. Crops are in full ET mode!
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A seven hour outage of the NWS heading into the peak of severe weather season.....so lucky that it was an extremely quiet evening. Fiber cut or not, this is not the beginning or end of IT issues in the NWS. I’d demand congressional investigation into this before the pimple pops.
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A beautiful severe storm west of Roswell, NM. 4:04 PM MDT.
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Thank-you to everyone who attended my
#AMS2020
presentation...well...except for the fella who decided it would be a good idea to sit in the *front row*, have his phone ring, and then proceed to *talk* on said phone loudly as I am presenting. 😑
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A lot of talk lately about "shifting" tornado alley. It's not shifting. Yes, there are spatial trends (we showed this in 2018). Most importantly, this new study breaks down what this means for society. Bravo to
@StephenMStrader
for leading this effort.
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This is absolutely unacceptable. If true, Amazon needs to be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law. In addition, we need to address mandated safety shelters/plans for such warehouses/factories. This is common sense, not govt. overreach.
Horrifying details are emerging about the tornado disaster at Amazon's warehouse in Illinois, where at least 6 workers were killed on the job.
Before he died, Larry Virden reportedly texted his girlfriend: "Amazon won’t let us leave." He leaves behind four children.
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I think this is the first time that
@NWSSPC
has ever had 15% areal outlines for all valid periods in the SWODY48?
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Went solo on this ERTAF outlook, as everyone else was busy this evening! 😬 More info on ERTAF here:
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Lots of significant (2.5-3”) hail today from a left split! Just east of Lenorah, TX around 5:25p cdt.
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All signals I can see suggest that March will almost certainly finish above average for CONUS tornado frequency. No need to sound the hype-train horn...we are now in boreal Spring and it's time to raise awareness and educate. This week is Severe Weather Preparedness Week in IL!
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Wow! What a day. Initial tornado from near Silverton, TX. Second tornado lasted nearly 20 min!
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Significant tornado✅
Nighttime✅
QLCS✅
Positive lead time ✅
Another stellar job by
@NWSChicago
.
Hoping the injuries stay in the single digits and we have no fatalities. Thoughts are with all those impacted. Tornadoes CAN happen in Chicago…see you at 7p on
@wttw
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A caffeine-addict interactive radar page that actually loads. Total development time: 4 hours.
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I’d suggest an independent review of how op-eds are selected/solicited.
Perspective: Since Joplin disaster a decade ago, "tornado warning lead time has not progressed ... suggesting that there is a need for an independent review of
@NWS
tornado warning procedures": by
@USWeatherExpert
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From one of our best mesoscale models...an additional 1-3 feet of rain forecast to fall by Tuesday evening.
#Harvey
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Quick road edits of yesterday's (5/23/24) tornadic supercell near Creta, OK. Very glad this was mostly over open areas!
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A view of the Tornado warned supercell from just east of NIU’s campus.
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Ask the families of the 321 people killed by tornadoes on 27 April 2011 if they care about being "interrupted" due to weather coverage. In addition, 1) the Bears suck and 2) it's simple to watch the game online if you cannot be bothered by live-saving news coverage.
"If you’re a Peoria TV viewer — and, apparently even worse, one of us Bears fans — you’re too mindless to think for yourself. You will be forced to watch weather and like it, dagnabbit."
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New tornado northeast of Maple Park, IL moments ago. Just lifted.
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Crazy to think his wife is leading a campaign against bullying.
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Chased a severe storm from Roswell to Hagerman, NM today. Great skyscapes and beautiful vistas!
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Busy start to the week ahead, with back-to-back-to-back risks for significant severe weather in the deep south. The threats will last well into the overnight hours on Mon. and Tue., so additional vulnerability present. Have a plan as we move into the peak of US svr wx season!
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Saturday eve. project complete! Raspberry Pi 3 B+ running WRF creating a 48h forecast for IL/IN domain (30-km grid spacing). Took about 20 min wall clock to simulate. Next step is to bring in breadboard and have it draw a meteogram for my house on the LED header.
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Another back-to-back-to-back week ahead for US severe wx, this time associated with a deepening trough now over the eastern Pac. Subseasonal low AAM/Nina signals remain favorable for "active bouts" of svr, including an MJO enhanced window centered OA 7 Apr.
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Let’s defeat this stupid ICE scheme by allowing our grad students to enroll in 1 CU of Ind. Study (on campus). We can certainly outsmart this narrow-minded madness.
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Ever wonder what a sounding may look like in between UPA sites? I've been wanting to do this for a long time, but it is finally finished. Data 3 hrly back to 1979! Caveat is that you are at the mercy of NARR, e.g.,
#wxtwitter
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My guess is that this Mayfield's supercell meso has lasted 500+ miles (~800+ km). Wow.
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A significant MCS with bow-echo is raking southern Nebraska right now, complete with a textbook rear inflow jet. A mesonet station 1 mi. north of Oxford just measured a 95 mph gust!
#newx
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Media request forced an update to G&B (2018). Here are the county level trends in favorable tornado days (defined as a day with a daily max STP value > 1). Units are days per decade (1979-2020). Max increase in Lafayette county MS of 4.4 days per decade.
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The Sycamore/Cortland area tornado as viewed from just northwest of Maple Park
#ilwx
looking forward to processing this one! Damage survey tomorrow, hoping to hear of no casualties.
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Imagine being the self proclaimed Twitter “expert” in US weather (especially as it pertains to svr wx) and not having any clue what the hell DCAPE is. Classic MS,
#usweathernovice
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They are the best in the business.
@gensiniwx
’s Practically perfect Tornado probs (hindcast) compared to SPC’s tornado probs (forecast) for fridays tornado outbreak. Overall a great forecast!
#wxtwitter
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We proceeded to chase this monster near Winona to Russell Springs, KS, before calling it an evening in Scott City, KS. There was also an interesting anti-cyclonic tornado that I will examine video of later.
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We’ve got a lot to learn about capping inversions, entrainment, mixing, and subsidence behind early waves. 0000z DDC RAOB shows how close things were...perhaps more than anything, underscores need for more/better obs if we are ever going to get to WoF capabilities.
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My response to
#usweathernovice
.
Does
@NWS
need independent review of tornado warnings?
@gensiniwx
writes there are more productive ways to improve public preparedness for tornadoes in response to
@USWeatherExpert
recommendation:
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I went to a
#communitycollege
because it was the fiscally responsible thing to do. My education was top notch. We are not a notch below. I just recorded an episode on the Weather Channel as a “tornado expert.” CC’s are vital to the public higher education model.
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If you're perception is that this year has been notable for significant hail frequency in the US, you're not wrong. Here is a quick comparison to last year up to today's date using preliminary reports (sig hail up 237% from last year, giant hail up 266%).
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Some events you can just👀coming loud and clear, having many hallmarks of significant and widespread svr wx. Next Sunday (28 Apr) has that look in most (but not all!) ensemble members. Certainly worth watching...sans hype.
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If I were at the desk this morning, this would be my initial outlook (considered adding a small 60% contour, but holding off until I see morning RAOBS). This is *NOT* an official SPC forecast.
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Elevated convection at 6:51p local near Kanorado, KS.
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Andrews et al. (2024) now available in print to all via open access!
"Climatology of the Elevated Mixed Layer over the Contiguous United States and Northern Mexico Using ERA5: 1979–2021"
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Ok folks, here is your long awaited
#GOES16
viewer. Please share! Just don't blow up the the
@CODMeteorology
server 😉
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Shots from 6-7 while chasing storms from n of Limon to n of Flager, CO. We're doing our best to make lemonade in this rough pattern. These 3 ⚡️pictures were taken near Flagler as a decaying MCS treated us to a top-ten sunset. I cannot wait to process the timelapse from this!
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Growing consensus in dynamical and statistical tools that late April is next sub-seasonal "forecast of opportunity." There will be severe weather events before that associated with noise, but keeping a very 👀 on that period.
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Haven’t felt like this before a day of severe weather in a long time. Please be safe and treat others with respect. This is the best and worst of meteorology. Crossing my fingers for only material damage.
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My bad, Thomas. I totally forgot about solar cycles and other forms of natural variability. Thanks for 'splaining me. 👌
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6.16.17 Fairmont, NE severe storms timelapse, complete with barrage of CG strikes and fireflies!
#timelapse
#lightning
#newx
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Yesterday was certainly a billion-dollar hail loss day across the U.S.....San Antonio and Fort Worth, TX---along with Norman, OK---were all impacted with large to significant hail. In addition, there was one gargantuan (4") hail report near Hondo, TX! ⚾️⚡️
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🚨M. Andrew's thesis work is now available in
@AMSJCLi
! (OA coming soon...) We examined the climatology and variability of the elevated mixed layer. This air mass has important implications for regional climate—including the frequency of severe t-storms.
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This was a top-5 chase overall for me and probably a top-3 lightning event. The timelapse of this event is going to be out of this world...
...and that's a wrap for organized chasing for me this year. Thanks for following along!
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Here is verification using prelim. LSR
#tornado
reports for our long range tornado outlook. I am proud of our efforts attempting to push the needle forward with this difficult forecast problem. We were watching the potential for this rash of severe weather since April 20th!
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