Focus on Israeli Demographics
@focusondemog
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Writing captivating facts about Israel’s extraordinary demographics
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2022 TFR for Jewish women in Israel:
Overall TFR: 3.07
Breaking it down further:
Haredi TFR: 6.38
Non-Haredi TFR: 2.46
Within the Non-Haredi category, TFR by sectors is as follows: - Religious: 3.77
Traditional: 2.8
Traditional Lite: 2.22
Secular: 1.98
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These were the TFRs for 2021. We now have new data for 2022. Bnei Brak - 5.87; Modi'in Ilit - 7.20; Beitar - 6.64. The rates in two Haredi cities are surpassing their already high 2021 levels. In Bedouin cities, rates are approaching 4. Rahat - 4.03, Hura - 4.34, Ar'arat - 4.65.
Fertility in Israeli Cities: Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) cities like Bnei Brak (5.77), Modi'in Ilit (7.06), and Beitar (6.80) exhibit extremely high fertility rates. Meanwhile, Arab Bedouin cities such as Rahat (4.09), Hura (4.62), and Ar'arat (5.13) show lower but notable rates.
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2023 was a year of horrors for Israel. Still, it is expected to experience a population increase of 180K by the end of 2023. The Netherlands last experienced such an increase in its population in 1946; and in Sweden, Austria, and Belgium, it is not known to have ever occurred.
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Since 1980, Jewish Israeli women's fertility rates surpassed those of Israeli Christian Arabs, in 2004 exceeded Israeli Druze women's, and from 2020, Israeli Muslim women's.
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49% of young Americans think that gays are not allowed to live openly in Israel; 45% think they are allowed to live openly in the Gaza Strip. Americans aged 65 and over show much better familiarity with the legal situation of gays living in the region.
סקר באמריקה. הבעיה ההסברתית של ישראל: העדר חריף של פינק-וושינג. זה או שאמריקנים צעירים הם פשוט בעלי מוח של זבוב.
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The migration of American Jews to Israel is largely Orthodox. Israeli women with American-born mothers have a TFR of over 4 children. Each year, they account for about 5,000 births, a total that parallels the annual birth figures of countries like Malta, Iceland, or Montenegro.
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Indonesia's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has recently reached the replacement level. This signifies that among the 30 largest economies globally, only Saudi Arabia and Israel have a TFR that exceeds the replacement threshold.
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In this table, South Korea has only 135% of the number of births in Israel, although it has 525% of its population.
New birth table. I was finally able to add Brazil to the monthly figures and Iraq and Turkey to the experimental forecasts.
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Bnei Brak, the city with the highest population density in Israel (27,000 people per square kilometer), has a Total Fertility Rate nearly reaching 6.
Yes, Seoul is insanely dense, and yes, that is a factor that leads to extremely low fertility rates.
What's even crazier is that South Korea is mostly empty, outside of Seoul and Busan. There is so much available space, if South Koreans want to use it!
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Israel is often seen as a deeply Jewish-religious country, but in fact, only 42% of its adults identify as religious or even partially traditional Jews. The rest include secular Jews, non-Jews from the ex-Soviet Union, and Muslim, Druze, and Christian communities.
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Fertility in Israeli Cities: Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) cities like Bnei Brak (5.77), Modi'in Ilit (7.06), and Beitar (6.80) exhibit extremely high fertility rates. Meanwhile, Arab Bedouin cities such as Rahat (4.09), Hura (4.62), and Ar'arat (5.13) show lower but notable rates.
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In early 2025 or even already in late 2024, Israel is expected to become the 22nd OECD country with a population size exceeding 10 million.
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In 2020, it was reported that the median age in Modi'in Ilit is 12.7. In contrast, Beitar is practically an old age home with a median age of 14.
These were the TFRs for 2021. We now have new data for 2022. Bnei Brak - 5.87; Modi'in Ilit - 7.20; Beitar - 6.64. The rates in two Haredi cities are surpassing their already high 2021 levels. In Bedouin cities, rates are approaching 4. Rahat - 4.03, Hura - 4.34, Ar'arat - 4.65.
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The population of Israel grows every month, at least by 13,000 people. In October, it grew slightly less, due to the toll of the October 7th massacre. The COVID deaths had a similar effect, but then the deceased were very elderly, while the victims of the massacre were young.
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Should current trends continue, Haredim are expected to be the majority of Israeli voters in 79 years. Also, global Haredi births may exceed those of Chinese births in 82 years. The surprises of exponential calculations. However, chances of these scenarios happening are very low.
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The former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett calls on the Israeli public to respond to the war and the significant loss of life it has caused by getting married and having a large number of children.
המסר של בנט לכל הרווקים ההוללים פה:
״אה, ונקודה אחרונה, אני רוצה לראות הרבה חתונות עכשיו. כל מי שחבר חברה תקופה ארוכה יאללה תתחתנו, הרבה ילדים, לעשות ילדים להצמיח פה מחדש ת׳חיים בעם הטוב הזה, אנחנו נתגבר״.
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Voting patterns in Israel align with faith, based on a poll about the 2015 election. Excluding non-voters, the percentages for Netanyahu's bloc were: Haredim - 98%, religious - 93%, traditional-religious - 76%, traditional-secular - 66%, and secular - 37%.
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Daily avg. population growth over the last 15 years: 🇬🇧 UK: 1,100. 🇦🇺 Australia: 950. 🇮🇱 Israel: 450. 🇳🇱 Netherlands: 250. 🇨🇭 Switzerland: 220. 🇳🇿 NZ: 170. 🇦🇹 Austria: 150. 🇨🇿 Czechia & 🇩🇰 Denmark: 80 each.
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In Israel, the refugee issue, mainly from Eritrea, divides voters. 2015 poll: only 11% of Meretz voters oppose liberal refugee definitions vs. 51% of Likud. Arab List voters surprisingly close to Likud at 43%.
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In light of recent significant turmoil, it's notable that Palestinians in East Jerusalem, which was annexed by Israel in 1967, now increasingly prefer the city to be under Israeli or international sovereignty rather than Palestinian sovereignty.
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From 2000 onward, there has been a 1.5% annual growth in the number of 6-year-old first graders within Israel's Hebrew secular education. Meanwhile, the non-Haredi religious education has seen a 2.2% annual increase, and the Haredi education has risen by 3.8% each year.
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In Israel, there are around 150,000 Druze people. However, Druze families rarely opt to live in large Israeli metropolises, resulting in fewer than 100 Druze individuals under 18 years old residing in the three biggest cities combined.
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In exceptional circumstances, it is possible for two women to be cousins while one is a teenager, and the other is a great-grandmother. It occurred in the family of Rabbi Elyashiv, the Haredi leader, with his granddaughters. When he passed away, he left behind 1400 descendants.
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Mizrahi Ultra-Orthodox Jews often show more modern leanings than their Ashkenazi counterparts, embracing secular education and a higher living standard. They have a somewhat lower birth rate and also higher youth departure rate from their community.
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A vast majority of Israeli Jews identifying as religious or traditional view the criminal case against Bibi as a witch hunt (71% versus 20%). However, among secular individuals, only 17% consider it a witch hunt, while 78% disagree.
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Many equate the October 7th massacre to the Holocaust. With similar genocidal intent and destruction of entire villages and entire families, the scale varies. On average, 4,000 Jews died daily during the Holocaust. One October 7th day matches 8 Holocaust hours.
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The percentage of individuals in Israel with an academic degree differs among different groups. Jewish individuals lead with 36% holding a degree, followed by Arab Christians at 29%. The Druze population and Muslim community trail with 17% and 15% degree holders respectively.
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The consistency of fertility rates in Israel and the significant disparities based on religiosity have been sustained over time.
@BirthGauge
🇮🇱 TFR of Jewish Women, by Level of Religiosity, 1979-2022
פריון-של-נשים-יהודיות-ואחרות-בישראל-לפי-מידת-הדתיות-שלהן-2022-1979.aspx
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While Canada, Spain, Norway, and New Zealand are generally peaceful countries, the severity of the deadliest terror attacks they have experienced in the past 50 years surpasses that of the worst terror attack in Israel's history in terms of casualties.
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Amid Israel's intense internal conflict, it's crucial to recognize that most Jewish Israelis prioritize democratic principles over religious law (Halakha). 2015 poll: Ashkenazim 68-17, Mizrahim 54-30.
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Many think Israel has trended rightward over time. However, Netanyahu's initial 1996 win with a 29,457 vote margin and his 2022 victory with a 29,951 vote margin seem eerily similar.
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Israel's solar PV capacity has surged from 0.3 GW to 4.4 GW in a decade. Remarkably, it now matches Egypt, Morocco, and Jordan's combined PV capacity, despite their far larger desert areas.
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Following the 2015 election, Neanyahu's right-wing coalition secured 61 out of 120 Knesset seats. The ESS survey suggested that if only Mizrahi Jews voted, the coalition might have acquired more than 90 seats.
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There is demographic logic behind the Yemen-Israel war. These two countries are anticipated to have the highest TFR in the Middle East in the upcoming years. Israel's TFR remains fairly stable, whereas Yemen's TFR is declining, but from a very high starting point.
"Israel this week used its Arrow missile-defence system to shoot down a ballistic missile outside of Earth’s atmosphere, in what is believed to be the first combat ever to take place in space."
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In 2018, a poll revealed that 17% of the Israeli haredi (ultra-Orthodox) community considered Israel's Independence Day as a cause for celebration for them, whereas 83% said it isn't.
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Between 1999 and 2014, there was a significant increase in births in Israel, with the numbers rising from 131K to 176K. As a result, it is reasonable to expect a baby boom in the next 15 years (2025-2040) as these cohorts enter their childbearing years.
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Haredi girls take a modified version of the PISA exam, which excludes topics considered taboo in their community, such as dinosaurs. These girls typically perform well in reading, but their performance in mathematics and science is not as strong.
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While Israel is known for its overall population density, the large desert region below latitude 31 remains sparsely inhabited. This area is also where the Peres Nuclear Research Center is located, sitting precisely on this latitude.
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To grasp the limits of Israel's ultra-Orthodox education, check what's missing in their PISA quiz: not only is everything online off-limits, but so are topics like classic literature, teacher ratings, gender equality, cultural diversity, or world news.
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Among Jewish women in Israel, there's a very strong correlation between the fertility rate and the level of religiosity. However, this correlation doesn't appear to exist among Israeli Muslim women.
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In 2048, on the 100th birthday of Israel, Central Bureau of Statistics predicts a significant shift in Zionism: majority of Jewish infants from ultra-Orthodox families. However, I'm skeptical as it overlooks immigration and underestimates attrition from Haredi community.
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In Israel today, 14% of the Jewish population is above 65, a proportion that's predicted to be relatively similar by 2065. By comparison, Japan's 65-and-over demographic is expected to reach around 40% in the same period.
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If we consider only males, the number of criminal cases opened for Arab minors by the police is more than twice that of Jewish minors. Cases involving female minors are rare in both communities, with even fewer instances among Arabs.
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After three challenging years of the COVID pandemic, the mortality rate in Israel over the last 12 months appears to have returned to levels comparable to the pre-COVID era.
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The newly appointed spiritual leader of the Haredi community is 93 years old. 16% of Israeli Jewish males who celebrate their 93rd birthday are likely to reach the milestone of their 100th birthday. However, Haredi rabbis often have exceptionally long lifespans.
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In the last three years, the fastest-growing demographic sector in Israel is not the ultra-Orthodox, nor the Bedouins. It's the "nones", the non-Jewish immigrants from Russia and Ukraine.
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Since the annexation of East Jerusalem after the Six-Day War, Muslim births in Israel have consistently accounted for over 20% of the total births, with some years even surpassing 25%. Last month, Muslim births were less than 20%, which serves as a harbinger for the future.
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In its 1986 statistical annual report, Israel Central Bureau of Statistics predicted a population of approximately 5.8 million for the year 2005. However, the actual population of Israel in 2005 was 7 million.
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Is Israel a safe destination? Road accidents claim far more lives than terrorist incidents. In this regard, Israel maintains a commendably low traffic fatality rate, comparable to countries like Denmark, Germany, and Spain, and significantly better than Austria, Italy, and the US
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Non-religious Jewish people in Israel have attitudes towards LGBT people that are similar to those in Western Europe, which means they are very liberal. On the other hand, religious Jewish people have attitudes that aren't as open, and are more like the attitudes seen in Turkey.
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It's noteworthy that in recent decades, the life expectancy of Israeli Jewish males has closely mirrored that of Arab females. This suggests that the gender difference favoring females aligns closely with the ethnic divergence favoring Jews.
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In last two decades, firm opposition to 3rd world immigration has become entrenched in Czechia and Hungary. In most Western Europe support has only risen, but not in Sweden. And where is Israel? It seems to be at a middle level between Hungary and Czechia and Western Europe.
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A report from the Israeli military indicating that gay soldiers posed no issues influenced Congress to repeal the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy. Now, the IDF has experienced the loss of its first openly gay soldier in combat.
This is Captain (res.) Sagi Golan, a commander of a counter-terrorism unit. On Saturday morning when he heard of the attacks, he left his home and drove to the battlefield, without waiting to be called.
He died defending the people of Kibbutz Beeri from Hamas terrorists.
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In 1965, the Israeli Bureau of Statistics reported TFR of Muslim women as 9.87. This TFR was possibly the highest ever reported worldwide. The good economic conditions in Israel allowed access to infant formula. Less breastfeeding, which can have a natural contraceptive effect.
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@litvishhocker
I'm not familiar with specific research on the subject, but it's clear that the senior ultra-Orthodox leaders of the past, such as Rabbi Elyashiv and Rabbi Shteinman or even Rabbi Ovadia, lived much longer than expected according to statistics.
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@JebknJbkn
@ComteWasRight
The Central Bureau of Statistics in Israel publishes the statistical yearbook. The data, available on the bureau's website, has been compiled since the establishment of the bureau and is written in Hebrew. Each yearbook contains comprehensive data, including fertility statistics.
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