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Frank Cowperwood (△/acc)
@financierfrank
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Analyzing Bitcoin Cycles with Indicators (2018–2025) - THREAD. Here’s a structured walkthrough of key Bitcoin market cycles, analyzed through the DCA Module, Bitcoin City, and the Fear and Greed Indicator. These tools have consistently identified optimal buy and sell zones with impressive accuracy. Let’s dive in: 1. December 08, 2018 - BTC Price: $3,500 A) DCA Module: Green line touch with extreme fear (dark blue background) and rocket indicators = BUY. B) Bitcoin City: Value 8-9, green background = BUY. C) Fear and Greed Indicator: Value 0-2 (extreme fear) = BUY. Outcome: This marked the bottom of the 2018 bear market. 2. June 26, 2019 - BTC Price: $12,900 A) DCA Module: Pink background indicates small greed. B) Bitcoin City: Value 1-2, red background = EXIT/SELL. C) Fear and Greed Indicator: Value 9-10 (extreme greed) = EXIT/SELL. Outcome: This was a major local top, with Bitcoin up +294% in 200 days since buy signal. 3. November 22, 2019 - BTC Price: $6,900 A) DCA Module: Touched green line with rockets = BUY. B) Bitcoin City: Value 6-7 (neutral) = NOT THE BEST ENTRY. C) Fear and Greed Indicator: Value 2 (fear zone) = BUY. Outcome: A good buy zone, but not as strong without full confluence. 4. March 12-18, 2020 - BTC Price: $3,500–$5,000 COVID CRASH A) DCA Module: Extreme fear with green line touch and rockets = BUY. B) Bitcoin City: Value 1-2, green background = BUY. C) Fear and Greed Indicator: Extreme fear = BUY. Outcome: This was the COVID crash, offering a second chance at historic lows. Note: Before the COVID crash, the indicators didn’t fully align, so the prior buy signal wasn’t as strong as this one.
A lot of people on my timeline are calling cycle tops again, so I wanted to share how I view these local tops and confluences. First off, I don’t know TA—I rely entirely on the indicators you see below: 1. DCA Module: Features a green line for Bitcoin’s fundamental price, with purple, orange, and red zones as resistance indicators. (red zone is not visible) 2. Bitcoin City: Ranges from 0-2 (exit the market) to 8-10 (excellent buying opportunities). 3. Fear and Greed Indicator: Measures market sentiment—0-1 (extreme fear), 2 (fear), 3-7 (neutral), 8 (greed), and 9-10 (extreme greed). Looking Back: The last time I called a top/local top was when Bitcoin was at $72k. At that point, there was clear confluence across all indicators: 1. DCA Module: Purple background indicated small greed, and Bitcoin was in the first purple resistance zone. 2. Bitcoin City: Showed "1," with a red background signaling to exit the market. 3. Fear and Greed Indicator: Extreme greed. What followed was a predictable result: a big chop zone with a 30% correction. Altcoins and memes took an even harder hit, dropping a minimum of 50% from their local highs. What’s Happening Now? Let’s compare: 1. At $72k, Bitcoin City showed a "1" to exit the market. Now, at $95k (a 33% higher price), Bitcoin City shows "5," which is neutral territory. Bullish. 2. The DCA Module shows no greed even at this higher price. Bullish. 3. The Fear and Greed Indicator recently exited the small fear zone. Bullish. Think about that: 46 days ago, when BTC first hit $90k+, the Fear and Greed Indicator showed extreme greed at this exact price level. Now, the price hasn’t moved - only chop chop, but sentiment has flipped to fear. Why? My Take: I don’t see even a local top here. Could we have a correction? Of course—10-30% corrections are normal in a bull market. But I don’t try to time tops unless the indicators clearly tell me to exit, like they did last time. My approach is simple: follow what the indicators show. Bitcoin City and DCA Module have consistently nailed pico tops and bottoms. I’ll share how they’ve worked in the past when I have more time. Most importantly, you need an entry and exit strategy. Without one, you’ll keep round-tripping your profits.
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BIG BIG BALLS
@alx Please send us a subpoena with “Big Balls” on it. I’m begging you please 🙏.
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