In Feb'23, I called for a year-end $SPX target of 5,000. Outrageous at a time when most people only saw downside. I think it's time for a big call again: 5,000 by Christmas 2025. Same number, opposite implications. Here are 9 reasons why. 🧵

@kingkang80 I think he wants to screw over Altman's spin-off by forcing him to pay a high valuation for it. But not sure.

Poland's GDP/Capita has been catching up to Germany at a rate of about 2% annually lately. It was just 8% in 1990. In 2023 it was 41%. This will continue and accelerate. Parity by 2050 IMO. Probably sooner. Germany's collapse will alter the EU.

@ecommerceshares $BTC. Yes, I consider it a stock.

@ondrejslunecko how many times can I play though?

Some people are destined to achieve great things. Some are destined to help others to achieve great things. Very few can accomplish both. You're either a player. Or a coach.

@GevaZipper yes, and if I may add: same TCJA is a best case assumption.

If you understand that long term Treasury yields are first and foremost the market's current prediction of long term nominal GDP growth, you are ahead of 99% of all investors out there. So many productive thoughts follow from that realization alone.

@BlacklionCTA @DiveBomb321 🥳

@GevaZipper @WarrenPies 👀

When you decide to study a topic in more detail and it turns out to be the opposite from what most people believe about it, that is the rule. Not the exception.

@mpjnba Even though the $SPX and a few mega caps continued after it, the $GME saga marked the peak for many highfliers.

People say Elon can't be distracted because he has proven he can operate many billion dollar companies simultaneously. Have these people ever bothered checking $TSLA's financials since he bought Twitter in 2022???

And the CPI would be

Read these articles to up your macro game. 1) Lower rates are inevitable... - High interest rates were in good part driven by a pain trade for bond investors. Investors had expected a recession from rate hikes and were too heavy in bonds. They had to be forced to rotate into stocks. This pain trade is coming to an end. Bond investors have capitulated. and - Now fundamentals will be more relevant again. Economic growth is in large part driven by the growth of the number of productive age people. This age group is growing much slower than in the past. - Also, both the fiscal deficit and the trade deficit of the US have been growth drivers. The former as a savings injection into US households (more consumption). The latter imported large amounts of capital into the country (more investment). Trump has declared a war on both deficits. and 2) ...and will cause a risk-off in markets. - Traditional macro argues that rate cuts are stimulating because they lower the cost of capital which incentivizes borrowing which boosts consumption and investment. - This traditional mechanism is impaired in a fiscal dominance regime because fiscal liquidity is not rate sensitive. Household leverage has come down since the GFC and existing leverage is termed out. Instead, higher rates are stimulating for a few reasons: - They increase the Treasury deficit which injects savings into the private sector which boosts consumption and investment. - Deficits and QT supply Treasury securities into the private sector. Investors are then seeking more risk to rebalance their portfolios. - Both of these mechanisms attract capital into the US, which is evident in the rising US Dollar. - Falling rates will therefore lower the private sector savings injection and they will reduce the need for a risk asset rebalancing bid. The result may be an environment like 2001-03 with consolidating stock prices, lower interest rates and a falling US Dollar.

@01Core_Ben We always are, no? ;)