Falko Ernst
@falko_ernst
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Free writer & researcher. Ex-Senior Mexico Analyst @crisisgroup PhD from @essexsociology
Mexico City
Joined February 2013
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This scene I’ve found among the hardest to digest in a decade in&out of Michoacán
Reenacting an execution was this veteran sicario’s sense of humor – but it reflects a cruel reality
That of the nearly half million people killed or disappeared in🇲🇽since 2007, and his role in it
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I was wondering when we would see another public act of communication by the CJNG, two weeks after the attack on Harfuch
This one, taken yesterday in the Jalisco Sierra as I'm told, is more than clear in its message toward the fed gov: You come after us, and we will strike back.
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Delicate detail: The assault rifle in the foreground - left/used at today's attack on Mexico City security secretary
#harfuch
- appears to be a FN Scar 17s
It's made by FN Herstal, owned by Herstal Group - which in turn is fully owned by Belgium's Wallonia regional government
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Mientras que políticos postean pics de qué tan adorables eran de niño, hay que recordar el otro lado de la infancia en México
Ejemplo x de miles: El chavo en la foto tiene 17. Hace un año, lo invitaron a venirse a Michoacán, a trabajar de sicario para los Caballeros Templarios
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You get sick of having to come back to this, but Mexico’s near-perfect impunity rate also means that there simply are very few boundaries to human cruelty. Curbing impunity should be an unquestioned priority of any security strategy.
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Hell of a way to say farewell to Alexander, the 16-year-old killed by police in Oaxaca. He was 16. Heartbreaking.
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Another, brutal example of why lethal violence in 🇲🇽 isn't just about 'markets', or simply 'rational'
When 17 people get lined up outside a wake and executed, as happened today in Michoacán, things become personal. And start, or accelerate, revenge cycles
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To be clear: This isn't an attack on 'the state' or a sign of 'failed state'. What CJNG is trying to do is to perpetuate/expand access to &control of state fragments&resources as condition for surivival. But yes, possibilities to do so have grown, and AMLO inertia does not help.
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Cuando una familia a la cual le masacraron niños se vuelve el blanco del odio, sabes qué tan lejos estamos de construir una política de seguridad centrada en las víctimas y la justicia. Hay que seguir luchando para construir empatía humana básica.
#solidaridadconlasvictimas
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If the events in Michoacán and Guerrero increased pressure on the Mexican government, the images from
#Culiac
án will work like a true shitstorm. They are far more direct, massive, war-like. More than anything else ever broadcast in the context of Mexico’s armed conflicts.
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Michoacán
A fighter leads me up to a "punto", a hilltop position from where they watch their enemy counterparts, the Knights Templar.
A week prior, amid the boredom, one fell asleep on night watch, costing the lives of 5.
The tragic banality of death in 🇲🇽's everyday wars.
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Not to assert a causality here, but yesterday the Jaliscos take a few soldiers in Aguililla
#Michoac
án and today Army and National Guard leave the area? Critical tongues would say the CJNG got its way. It's 101 violence-backed negotiating with the state.
#Estados
| Tras la toma del municipio de Aguililla, Michoacán, por parte del Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación, elementos del Ejército y
@GN_MEXICO_
dejaron la localidad para evitar confrontaciones con el grupo criminal.
#ep
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Tanta sorpresa por la detención de Cienfuegos sólo muestra qué tan fuerte sigue el mito de la excepcionalidad de FFAA, el que las coloca mágicamente por encima de las dinámicas de poder. La realidad en campo, dondequiera, lo contradice, y así la entera historia del narco en 🇲🇽.
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¿Qué ha cambiado para los grupos criminales bajo el actual gobierno?
Un operador del CJNG me lo puso así:
"Es la misma mamada que antes", añadiendo que sigue logrando arreglos con fuerzas de seguridad como la Guardia Nacional
Nuestro nuevo informe 👇
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Also interesting: paint job, uniforms, vehicles. All look exceedingly impeccable. Building blocks of a finely orchestrated production, just barely wrapped up. Contact says the people in the video were ''just equipped this weekend''.
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Please check out the full story, with many more pics
It's my entry to our freshly launched
@crisisgroup
photo-project portraying the conflicts we work on across LatAm in more visual, personal ways
There are also great pieces on Venezuela&Colombia
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I talked to
@jorgeramosnews
about how kids, born into Mexico's ongoing armed conflicts, will continue to take up armed roles within non-state groups as long as solutions aren't implemented
The episode is live now 👇
You may have seen the images: children with guns in one of the poorest areas in Mexico. Their homes are surrounded by a dangerous cartel and they face constant violence. We visited one area in the state of Guerrero last year to hear from some of these child soldiers.
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As a teen, Grillo was given a “choice”: join the cartel or die
At 24, when we spoke, he had killed for 4 different armed groups and knew he was doomed
How will Mexican society,
@lopezobrador_
,
@AlfonsoDurazo
deal with such cases?
My story 👇
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The pic’s from November
I was back on the ground, spending time with 3 armed group leaders, sicarios & civilians navigating meandering frontlines
The result: A journey into what keeps Michoacán’s armed conflict spinning & where it’s headed
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Told
@guardian
that
''Criminal groups have learned their lesson over the past few years that no matter what they do – including killing candidates or attacking public institutions – there are no consequences.
That creates huge incentives to kill...”
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Couple of key points re the
#CJNG
video (thread👇)
It's an episode in a much wider sequence of negotiation of power, and impunity fed gov - CJNG.
Displays of violence in this context aren't new. The degree of the production is.
I was wondering when we would see another public act of communication by the CJNG, two weeks after the attack on Harfuch
This one, taken yesterday in the Jalisco Sierra as I'm told, is more than clear in its message toward the fed gov: You come after us, and we will strike back.
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Two years ago, my colleague
#MichaelKovrig
was detained in China. Every day, he takes roughly 7,000 steps to stay fit. That’s roughly 5km.
Today, I walked this distance in solidarity with him on the streets of Mexico City. He takes those steps in his cell.
#FreeMichaelKovrig
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It’s a heartbreakingly beautiful place, whose people – some of them family by now – have met me with nothing but warmth and respect over the years
It makes it all the more tragic that they’ve suffered the consequences of disastrous policies by one presidency after the other
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It was always inevitable that MX criminal groups try and leverage
#Covid19
to expand their legitimacy, popular backing
A real stress test for state governance that might tilt state-crime relations further
Vid shows Michoacán group Los Viagras handing out basic food items
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Mis pláticas con él, sus propios jefes y los de grupos contrarios, con otros sicarios que empezaron a los 12 y los 13 años, y muchos más en Tierra Caliente forman la base de mi más reciente texto sobre el rumbo del conflicto allí
Échenle un vistazo 👇
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Not that this necesarily changes the nature of the relationship CJNG vs. gov. Rather than a declaration of war, from my perspective it's primarily geared at guarding the status quo, at a crucial time where the fed gov has to define its future posture regarding the CJNG.
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40+ armed groups - more than in any other Mexican state - have rendered Guerrero a mosaic of competing thiefdoms
Constant armed clashes along their fault lines are driving a mounting humanitarian toll incl. 1000s internal displacements
The full report:
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Conocí a “José” – a la derecha – hace cinco años en una ranchería de la Tierra Caliente michoacana
Hoy su familia lo tuvo que velar
Otra vida joven más desperdiciada en esta guerra sin fin, y sin sentido
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Told
@FT
that
“Tackling the flow [of guns] from the US is fundamental to solving Mexico’s security crisis... Without US weapons the capacity [of criminal groups] to make war and kill would be drastically lower”
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The Financial Times leaves room for discussion as to what is to be defined as ''the people''
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78% of Mexicans prefer military over police in public security, according to survey
Once again shows how disconnected elite discourse can be from everyday opinions
And how great path dependency has become as police reforms haven't been forged (properly)
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In Michoacán an army vehicle's apparently been destroyed by a mine (IED?)
Given ongoing arms race among criminal groups (C4-drones) this wouldn't be surprising
But deeply worrying - the logical result of letting this conflict simmer& mutate far too long
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Mientras tanto, en Sudáfrica hay preocupación de que el país se estaría ''mexicanizando''...
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Está bonito. Pero si no se apoyan y protegen a quienes defienden a la biósfera de la mariposa monarca en Michoacán de los grupos criminales (talamontes), igual y va a quedar como registro histórico.
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When I refer to business as usual / risk of escalation of conflict in Mexico, I mean this:
As I write, Viagras making push for Michoacán localities Nueva Italia & Cuatro Caminos
Shoot-outs ongoing, entry points blocked w/ burning vehicles, feds absent
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¿Por qué compiten grupos criminales en las elecciones?
Porque "hay una regla que todos conocen: Sólo quien tenga la protección del gobierno, crece"
Mi texto sobre elecciones, violencia y líneas porosas entre estado & crimen👇
#Michoac
án
#Aguililla
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'I'm gonna fuck you up good', throws Félix Salgado, alleged rapist, current senator, and denied MORENA candidate for governor of Guerrero state at Mexico's electoral authority. Hit rock bottom yet, have we?
‘Me los voy a chingar’, advierte Félix Salgado a INE y al Tribunal Electoral vía
@pajaropolitico
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During research for our new 🇲🇽 report – out now👇– we found the starkest contradiction to the government's “hugs, not bullets” motto
State and criminal sources told us: In 2021 army special forces killed up to 400 Jalisco Cartel fighters in Michoacán
🧵
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In late 2006, pres. Calderón kicked off his "war on drugs" here, promising swift victory vs. the then-dominant Familia Michoacana
The situation in 2021:
→ 14+ illegal armed groups having carved out a volatile mosaic of enclaves
→ a record 2,700+ killed
→ 1000s displaced
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A number of sicarios told me their story
One started aged 12, another one was 13 when he first killed
He apologized for his tears: “I’ve never told all this to anyone”
They want out, but there's no systematic effort to support them
To end the killings, this has to change
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A key reason for the worsening bloodshed: Inexistent state-crime divisions leading policies ad absurdum
Case in point: I hung out with one armed group leader as he coordinated with police an offensive against an enemy
It was a joint operation, by an integrated structure
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The key factor that might or might not be illuminated: How this forms part of the wider, and delicate, negotiation of power between AMLO and Mexico's armed forces, and their central role within his political project
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Euro guns have an infamous history in MX, used by both security forces in human rights violations and by criminal groups
2019, Germany's Heckler&Koch, whose rifles were used vs. Ayotzinapa students, was fined 3.7m Euros for circumventing export bans
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In the run-up to 🇲🇽’s 6 June mega-elections, 89 politicians have been killed
But what’s behind the numbers?
Our NEW REPORT (eng& esp)👇takes a deep dive into how criminal groups act on their golden rule: Get state access or go down
Some key takeaways🧵
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Michoacán is many things.
Hauntingly beautiful is one of them.
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Arguably, the original sin precisely is not drug consumption - but exporting a devastating iron-fist security model to Latin America to deal with it rather than approaching it as a public health issue.
We wrote this in our story on Mexico's corrupt former defense minister. It's important to say that the original sin in all this is U.S. drug demand. It has terrible, terrible effects on Mexico and other nations, and the U.S. doesn't do nearly enough to fix it.
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China🇨🇳, Mexico🇲🇽, and the USA🇺🇸 are all playing the fentanyl blame game. No one is responsible. Perhaps a healthier approach would be to assume shared responsibility, and work together to forge solutions that save lives? One can dream...
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Armed groups active in Mexico 2010 vs. 2019
The number has doubled - and it keeps on rising
Example: Just over the past couple of weeks, the Jalisco Cartel has set up two new, semi-autonomous satellites in Michoacán
More in our new commentary👇
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My latest, for
@guardian
: A look at Mexican criminal groups' attempts to leverage Covid
It's based on the voices of the head of a "cartel", civilians receiving "aid", a state-crime broker - and of the always insightful
@VFelbabBrown
and
@DavidRdeG
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Young people will continue to “provide the dead”
52% of 🇲🇽’s 369,150 murder victims – 193,302 – from 2007 to mid-2021 were 34 or younger
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Esto debería de ser noticia mayor. Lanzan explosivo desde un dron en pleno zócalo de Acapulco, hiriendo gravemente a un bebé. Huele a acción para ‘negociar’ mejores t��rminos entre crimen y estado después de la elecciones. Veremos más de esto en las próximas semanas.
Explosivo lanzado en Zócalo de Acapulco, habría sido arrojado por dron: Cuatro heridos, bebé grave
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"El informe de
@CrisisGroup
es un escándalo.
Hubo, señala, un “acuerdo de coexistencia” que permitió a los cárteles “obtener ganancias y ampliar su control sobre comunidades” siempre que se redujera “la violencia visible”."
@hdemauleon
👇
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Security forces take sides, and act in many ways as plain & simple conflict participants
One might assume e.g. that the 1000s of troops sent to the state late 2021 would have Pelón, another leader I talked to, worried
Far from it: He said this translated into invaluable support
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Say what you will, but Mireles was beyond any doubt one of the great protagonists of Michoacán's recent history.
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Our brief synthesis of how the past 14 years of Mexico's 'war on drugs' has backfired spectacularly - with a staggering 198 armed groups currently active on the country - and what should be done 👇
🎬 Mexico’s organised crime has survived the government’s militarised assaults and broken up into smaller outfits.
@CrisisGroup
identified 198 active crime groups, with as many as 463 in the past decade.
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If further proof was needed that López Obrador's 'Hugs not bullets' was always a discursive façade to dysfunctional continuity on the ground: the 🇲🇽 army's kill rate has gone up during his administration 👇
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Good. But. Much of the state apparatus is still operated in the same way, serving private and many times criminal interests, not the public good. This could be grounds for changing that. But so far, it’s not happening.
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The reason: The Jalisco Cartel’s aggressive campaign to take over Michoacán has spelled trouble
Militarily, for the conglomerate of local groups calling itself United Cartels
And on the PR front, for a presidency asserting undeniable progress in security, peace even…
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“There is no transparency. The armed forces remain black boxes that continue to successfully defend themselves against independent oversight”, I told
@guardian
To add: Their leverage has grown as AMLO has made his political project dependent on them
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No para ser polémico, pero 'muro de paz' inevitablemente evoca el eufemismo que la RDA usaba para referirse al muro de Berlín: antifaschistischer Schutzwall, o sea muralla de protección anti-facista
El pdte.
@lopezobrador_
da garantías a las manifestaciones del 8M. El cerco de Palacio Nacional es para proteger y no para reprimir; para cuidar el patrimonio de todos los mexicanos y evitar la confrontación. Es un muro de paz que garantiza la libertad y protege de provocaciones
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Mexico City public security secretary García Harfuch blames this morning's attempt on his life on the Jalisco Cartel CJNG
Perpetrated with high calibre weapons right in the city, this isn't your everyday attack - and could trigger a further escalation
Esta mañana fuimos cobardemente atacados por el CJNG, dos compañeros y amigos míos perdieron la vida, tengo tres impactos de bala y varias esquirlas. Nuestra Nación tiene que continuar haciéndole frente a la cobarde delincuencia organizada. Continuaremos trabajando.
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PS: This doesn't change the fact that no comprehensive strategy exists
And that, without it, going after kingpins doesn't even remotely resemble a solution to Mexico's armed conflicts
Rather than celebrate, we need to ask what's being done to change this
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8 persons reported beheaded in Aguililla, Michoacán 🇲🇽
Other sources say total death toll is 26
This is primarily the effect of self-interest-based politics & collusion so far undermining any notion of progress in the field of security
Thread 👇
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A largely cosmetic arrest, which satisfies US/DEA pressure, indicates continuity in terms of the failed kingpin strategy instead of comprehensive solutions, seems to further support MX fed gov operational preferences empowering certain fragments of Sinaloa and weakening Jalisco
BREAKING: Infamous drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero, who was behind the 1985 killing of a U.S. DEA agent, has been captured by Mexican forces nearly a decade after walking out of a Mexican prison and returning to drug trafficking.
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The human rights activist and scholar Jan Cadete Odimba was assassinated this morning in Morelia, Michoacán.
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An AR15 with a mounted grenade launcher
Property of a member of an illegal armed group fighting a war of attrition against others like it in Michoacán, Mexico 🇲🇽
Made by
@coltlkl
in Hartford, Connecticut, USA 🇺🇸
Note the scratched-off serial number
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Qué buen uso de recursos policiales... 🙄
Detuvimos en Morelia a una persona en posesión de una bolsa que contenía hierba verde seca con las características de la marihuana. ¡Cero tolerancia!
#Michoac
ánSeEscucha🚔
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Loving this without reservations.
Professional wrestlers enforce the face mask rule at the Central de Abastos market in Mexico City.
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Holding the upper echelons of state power accountable is a necessary condition for breaking Mexico's perpetual lethal conflict
Today cements a leap away from this, taken as the MX gov began to pursue its armed forces' impunity in the diplomatic arena
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For now, the shared threat also holds United Cartels together. But if it vanishes, infighting's set to break out again
Not a shred of doubt here by anyone: After this war is before the next one
Absent any authority capable of imposing order, Michoacán’s in it for the long run
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…something hardly squaring with the constant media reporting on Michoacán’s conflict and its costs
The shared problem of the Jalisco Cartel, bosses & fighters said, has forged a common front
Some spoke of coordination. Others of integration in battle
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"El peor agravante de la violencia, los abusos de las fuerzas de seguridad, es quizás el más difícil de resolver"
Mi colega
@dickinsonbeth
explica lo que hay detrás de la situación en Colombia👇
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''Se puede hablar de paz y tranquilidad'' en 🇲🇽, dice López Obrador en su mañanera
Hallamos algo diferente en nuestro reporte sobre elecciones y violencia en Tierra Caliente
Como nos dijo un consultor político local:
''No puedes gobernar sin la maña''
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"Dependence on the armed forces is growing & steps to get them off the streets by 2024 are not being taken”, I told
@el_reportero
re today's pres. decree cementing role of military in public security in MX
Steps such as: Creating capable civilian police
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53,000 homicides during the first 18 months of the López Obrador administration *should* underline the urgency with which security policies need to be turned around to protect vulnerable populations.
Not that that appears to be a political priority.
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800 displaced person reported from Apatzingán municipality, Michoacán🇲🇽This is the fallout of a conflict smoldering since start of the year, taking place in hinterland areas, and that conflict parties and gov have kept out of the media. CJNG and allied local group pushing into…
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No matter who calls the shots in the Oval Office from January 2021 – overhauling the failed security paradigm toward Mexico is in the United States' national interest
Why - and how - in my latest👇
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El bisne.
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A glimpse of the lethal back & forth the Michoacán-Jalisco border area has been under for years - and that's only picking up steam as we near next year's elections. 100s of displaced just these past four weeks - and thus far no notable coverage of this acute humanitarian crisis.
Dramatic footage from yesterday when National Guard and Army came under attack in Tingüindín, Michoacán
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The Mexican government, instead of defining and implementing a coherent security strategy, is playing the numbers game to back up its narrative of a country at peace
Now up: pushing down the stats of disappeared persons
@dayan_jacobo
is keeping track👇
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Una muestra más bien selectiva. En los últimos diez años, según nuestros propios cálculos, el número de grupos armados ilegales activos en México se ha más que duplicado, pasando a 205.
Todos los cárteles del narco que actúan hasta nuestros días fueron fundados en el gobierno de
@FelipeCalderon
.
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A supposed video of an episode - a drone dropping C4 bombs - in the arms race between the Jalisco Cartel & its Michoacán-based "contras"
Perhaps such images can help underline the urgency to address & stop NOW 🇲🇽's slide into sth resembling internal armed conflict an awful lot
#EnVideo
| 🚨⚠️ Presuntos miembros del Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación bombardearon con drones al menos 2 localidades de
#Tepacaltepec
. 🚨⚠️
ℹ️:
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Allegations of criminal financing of AMLO campaign raise troubling but by no means new questions regarding routine nature of state-crime overlaps
How much of a "deal" underpins the current administration's more passive approach to organized crime?
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It might imply the vanishing of that particular cartel label
But, as we all should've realized over the past 14 years, by no means the end of the armed blocks that integrated it and now have to decide: continue to fight or align with CJNG
The conflict over GTO is far from over
La caída de El Marro implica en los hechos el fin del Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima
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Also interesting re Cienfuegos: The political dimensions of the DA's decision to make a move now, and if they were considered. On one hand, it's Peña's guy who's going down. On the other, it doesn't exactly support AMLO's case for the whole-sale empowerment of the armed forces.
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Out now: Our latest
@CrisisGroup
Mexico report
A deep dive into Guerrero's everyday war
It’s based on conversations with a “cartel” boss, his “autodefensa” archenemy, heroin traffickers, growers, state police, victims, and many others👇
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Talked to
@TheEconomist
about the unchecked, continuous mutation of 🇲🇽 criminal groups
“We are seeing [a] transformation not only from drug-trafficking organisations to multi-commodity ones, but now to actual local strongmen exercising political control”
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El problema con tales afirmaciones es que se excluye de la definición del crimen organizado la colusión sistémica de actores del estado
Sin éstos, no existe lo que estereotípicamente se percibe como CO
Y sin reconocer & abordar esto, no habrá soluciones
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"Militarised security policy is both dead and alive: López Obrador has renounced it but its vestiges remain. Meanwhile, there is no new, comprehensive security strategy to take [its] place"
My take on
#Culiac
án & how MX security policy should change 👇
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Another eye-opening life story interview with a veteran sicario. He said he’d paid his dues and was effectively retired. A few days later, his bosses ordered him back to work.
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La Jornada is reporting that Ovidio Guzmán, the detained son of El Chapo, has been released. If that's true, it sets a disastrous precedent. Hard to believe.
#UltimoMinuto
/ Después de enfrentamientos, liberan a Ovidio Guzmán hijo de "El Chapo" para “pacificar” a
#Culiac
án
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The military leave the area when the light fades.
At night, every night, come the drone attacks, the shootouts.
At night, they produce videos like the one sent to me this morning, too graphic to share, showing a police kneeling in the river before being executed.
Apatzingán.
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Difícil de matar, esa narrativa: Los del CJNG "desafían al Estado", como si fuera un monolito, no un abanico de intereses y actores con la más diversa adherencia a la ley
Más valdría desafiar: El mito de "El Estado" y su papel en los conflictos mexicanos
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FN Herstal is one of Europe's leading military small arms exporters, self-describing as a "global reference in the world of small caliber firearms"
Its U.S. subsidiary, where the rifle is sold for USD 3,569, describes itself as "one high-powered family tradition"
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A 🇲🇽 crime group set up its own WiFi network, overcharging clients
Might sound bizarre. But if you're left to govern your turf with impunity, all that limits your ways of making money is your own imagination
Talked this through w/
@AP
@meganjanetsky
👇
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Mexico's army is a black box within the 🇲🇽 State - one that's being handed increasing powers while enjoying near-perfect impunity and opacity
And it's making damn sure it'll stay that way - including by spying on state officials looking into its crimes👇
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