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Ethan Ard
@ethanard
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Following
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Full of passionate intensity
Columbus, OH
Joined June 2007
Simple but politically incorrect truth: If you want to get good returns as an LP, you must learn to underwrite deals yourself. You don’t need to be able to find them, or operate them. But you need to be able to read an OM and come to an informed opinion about rents and cash flows. Good deals are oversubscribed by discriminating LPs. So if you are not discriminating, you will be left with mediocre deals. Maybe the OMs will be glossy and the GP will seem smart and ethical and friendly. But your returns down the line will suffer. Perhaps more importantly, if you focus on underwriting and you get it wrong, you will be honest with yourself and ask *why* you got it wrong, and hopefully you will learn to do better next time. But if you focus on GP quality and never bother to independently evaluate the deal, if it goes wrong you won’t learn anything useful, other than “never invest with that GP again.”
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@MarkTheRustic @baseballcrank You are correct to point out that there is a trade-off between inefficiency and tyranny. Things really do get done more quickly in a dictatorship. There is no need to consult stakeholders throughout society if your only job is to obey. Iron fists get shit done.
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@mattyglesias Literally the only salient factor for any democratic politician in the next primary cycle will be how loudly and aggressively they oppose Trump / Musk. Nobody is going to care about left vs. moderate. It will be 100% about balls.
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@moseskagan Extremely well done. Captures the attention in the first 5 seconds with a direct message which delivers value. If you're not posting those on tik tok, you should.
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To be honest they are absolutely going after subsidies and other things republicans depend on. Much of USAID is paying farmers to buy crops to feed poor children abroad. Food stamps (which they may eviscerate soon) is the same but for poor American children. Steel tariffs will cause a manufacturing recession. Foreign wars (if they occur) will primarily kill republican soldiers. Covid killed proportionally more people in red counties, and we will see more measles (and maybe bird flu) deaths in republican geographies. The reality is that our system is based on a complicated balancing of interests between various groups. Taking a chainsaw to all of it has a lot of visceral appeal in the short term, but I think the harm will be broadly distributed, and probably the rural and working class folks will get it the worst. I do think that on the whole, country-club republicans will do pretty well. For example if you own real estate (like me), you will benefit from tariff-driven inflation, or if your salary is $1 million+ your taxes will go down. But that’s a minority of republican voters.
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@tunguz For example, in the 20th century we discovered relativity and quantum physics. Are you saying that in the 21st century, we (inclusive of AI) will not make any discoveries of comparable significance? IMO, zillions of 300 IQ bots will figure out some hitherto unimaginable stuff.
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@mattyglesias The fine people of Texas are being drained of their greatest Slovenians. Coincidence?
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@Sandersd84 @sarchasm9 @eff_lars @housleyd @jambazzombie @roberthendricks @elonmusk Whew! Big relief, thank you.
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@Sandersd84 @sarchasm9 @eff_lars @housleyd @jambazzombie @roberthendricks @elonmusk Timely article, just published minutes ago. (gift link)
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@DrToddD @roberthendricks @elonmusk Good luck. You had every right to vote the way that you did. I hope that that you--and your children and grandchildren--have the right to change your mind.
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@JamesSurowiecki I think people get confused, because "executive" e.g., CEO, is considered an all-powerful position. But in fact CEOs are there to execute the will of the Board, which is elected by and accountable to the shareholders. Of course many Boards are captured by CEOs, but...
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@CharlesFLehman If your student loan debt goes down by $10,000 and your other debt goes up by $900, that is a 91% decrease. Categorically false to say that this increased indebtedness.
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@levie I mean it has to be the latter, right? Anything else would be insane. It's hard to extrapolate exponential curves, but as a rule of thumb, we should develop solutions that work well with 2026's LLMs in mind. This will work for early adopters in 2025 *AND* mainstream in 2026.
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