Energy Blogger
@energy_blogger
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Areas of Interest - Oil & Gas and Power. Worked in manufacturing sector across Europe, ME, APAC. UAE is my 2nd home!
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As
#Nordstream
pipeline continuous to be exposed to seawater, a quick 50,000ft note on metallurgy
For severe corrosive service like Seawater different grades of steel are used
Many can be confined to 2 types of Stainless Steel
1) Duplex Stainless Steel (SS)
2) Super Duplex SS
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India’s O&G minister: My primary responsibility is my consumer/people
We are not told by anyone to stop buying Russian oil
- Our civil aviation is back,
- Our roads are full,
- Consumption is increasing
India will buy oil from wherever it has to!
#OOTT
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This is how Saudi Arabia monitors every single drop of crude oil that comes from their ground.
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Accidents happen in every segment of the energy market, important is lessons learnt. Blades flying around!
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Oil Market Supply Disruption yet to come!
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@CroftHelima
breaks down the details.💥💥💥
- SPR ends by Oct-22
- Russian Oil sanctions by Dec-22
- OPEC do not have spare capacity
- Russian price cap: not sure
- Russia weapon choice: Gas not Oil
#OOTT
#Oil
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Goldman Sachs CEO doubles down on Oil & Gas investments
“We recognize there needs to be a transition over time, but that transition will take time”
to do that we need strong independent energy economy by investing in traditional energy companies
#OOTT
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So where does US imports most of it oil from? It’s Northern neighbor Canada and it’s only increasing over the years….
In fact Canada export more Crude Oil to the US than rest of all world Crude Oil exports put together to the US
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State of Wind & Solar in Germany
- ~125 GW of installed capacity
- Generated similar amount of power as 4GW Installed nuclear in Nov
Hence comparing cost for 1MWh power install base of different technologies is inaccurate and has fundamental flaw.
#EnergyTransition
In past 30d, Europe experienced a Dunkelflaute, a period of little wind or sunlight.
During that period, 4GW installed nuclear produced as much power as 125GW installed wind & solar. Coal kept lights on.
Both sources are scheduled to be turned off. Vorsprung durch Technik.
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Firstly one should understand difference between
- What is required,
- what is consumed
- How much is produced locally,
- What is imported or exported
- What can be withdrawn
IEA guideline is 90 days of Net oil import.
It is NOT xx days of consumption
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If you are still reading this thread then you may be interested to learn more about US SPR sites and distribution centers… below link will be of interest to you.
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If you think you’re having a bad day at work, think again😉
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So please do remember these
- Consumption
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
- Net Imports
And Net imports is what one needs to compare their SPR level. Red line in below graph…..
PS: I’ve not even considered commercial stock in above analysis!
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Now with 4.4 million b/d as withdrawal capacity how much the US need…
Tbh @ -1.7 million b/d, currently US is a net exporter of Oil & Petroleum products!
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US SPR present level: ~350 million bbl
As per IEA
- 90 days of Net Oil imports (not only crude but includes products!)
However for argument sake let’s consider only US Crude Net imports! Which is 2.5 to 3 mbpd
350 million bbl / 3 mbpd
= 116 days!
#OOTT
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Who moves Russian Barrels.
🧵using publicly available material.
1) Sun Ship Management
- Fleet: ~92 Tankers & LNG
- Volume: >50 million bbls
- Owners: Star Choice, Hong Kong
- Registered: Dubai, UAE
- Mutual Insurance: Yes, P&I
It is believed SCF is the eventual owner.
#OOTT
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The pattern continues.. First blame OPEC+ then Oil majors…
But at same time take all credit for any low Gasoline price
Present administration messaging is poor, President wants E&P to invest in O&G which he would like to shutdown!
#OOTT
#Oil
Oil companies made billions in profits this quarter.
They’re using these record profits to pay out their wealthy shareholders instead of investing in production and lowering costs for Americans.
It’s unacceptable. It’s time for these companies to bring down prices at the pump.
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And how much does US import from the OPEC?
Only about 1.0 ~ 1.5 million b/d
Now imagine even with SPR withdrawal rate of 4.4 million b/d this more than enough
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On Energy poverty question by
@_HadleyGamble
, Congolese minister response
This is reality guys!
- 600 million without energy access
- Need stable income
- Cannot afford shocks / supply risk
- Need O&G revenue to feed our population
#OOTT
#Oil
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This picture with average human size comparison against valve installed in Nord Stream onshore sections.
Hopefully gives the perception on size of things we are discussing.
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Wow! Just wow! Some of the European LNG cargoes have been bought via a Singapore entity that belongs to Gazprom.
LNG was meant for India supply, but lucrative EU rates meant, Gazprom Singapore diverted it to EU, paid penalty to Indians and still made millions of $$$
#OOTT
#Gas
Right, Ira. And few elements, pretty overlooked so far, which also bring some accuracy
1. Gazprom Marketing & Trading Ltd (GM&T) -whose Singapore subsidiary has the
#LNG
20yr deal with GAIL- is now SEFE Marketing & Trading
2. It seems that SEFE MT sent more gas to Europe /1
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Ofcourse there will be arguments, Crude quality matters but in time of peace and NOT in times of war or emergency
If in emergency, Govts will throw the kitchen sink as well
Eg., Indian refiners using Russian Urals. From near Zero % to 45% of its import
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#Geopolitics
Critical statements
Seems Crown Prince told President Biden if you want to deal with countries that share your value system totally then countries you dealing with only be in Western Europe. Respect each other value system.
.
@_HadleyGamble
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And to complicate matters, NS had sourced pipe & valves from Germany & Italy.
They were the only suppliers who could qualify from this entire planet!!
So in case Russians have to carry out repair work, they need to buy pipes from Italy and don’t think sanctions would allow it
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So my conclusion it is going to take a very long time for NordStream to come back.
Until sections of pipe are not secluded quickly, it is going impact months if not in years.
#NordStreamSabotage
#OOTT
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ExxonMobil CEO to CNBC "My expectation is we will continue to see modest growth even without that growth the market still remains tight given the supply challenges."
#OOTT
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“This is what the world’s largest diesel engine looks like. It’s 26.59 meters (87.2 feet) long, 13.5 meters (44 feet) tall, and weighs more than 2,300 tons.” - ASME had posted this in LinkedIn recently.
.
@MarkTomasovic
another video right up your alley.
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With Houthis attack along Red Sea shipping lanes getting lot of media space over this weekend will be interesting to see what it does to Oil on Monday morning….
#OOTT
"Repeated attacks by Yemen's Houthis militia along the Bab al-Mandeb route have left global shipping companies shunning the critical chokepoint amid rising costs and increasing geopolitical risk in one of the world's biggest chokepoints for seaborne trade."
I take a look at
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Greta Thunburg and a group of protesters pushed out by German Police from a coal mining area Luetzerath.
Having energy is more important than having none, particularly in Winter
But Germans complicate themselves, keep the nuclear plants running!
#energy
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Just saying in the 3 months ended by March -2022. Net income of
Exxon: ~$6 billion
Apple: $25 billion
Seems GOD is poorer than many American companies😉
#OOTT
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How an American company indirectly helped ~$2.8 billion of Iranian oil shipments in 2023 .
An excellent piece in this NYT article working along with .
@TankerTrackers
Img: screenshot to show the depth of research time and effort into it.
#OOTT
#Oil
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Seawater will fill in one section of the pipeline and not complete length
But this section is 100s of Km long in Nord Stream
So the flooded seawater section of pipe is now subjected to something called “pitting corrosion”
It basically creates localized holes on metal's surface
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So where are we with Russian Oil price cap
- OFAC sent letters to 30 firms last week threatening prison sentences if not complied
- Guess what? not even a single Oct transaction was below $60/bbl
- 75% of Russian oil exported now without Western Insurance & by dark fleet
#OOTT
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So those sections of pipe should now be exposed to seawater will be beyond repair after few weeks.
Complete section has to be replaced with new pipeline which includes welding every 12 m (~40ft).
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“Below are some of the energy-saving measures that will come into force from 1 September in Germany.”
Image: German Embassy in London
#Energy
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This is so wrong in so many ways… milk poured down by activist in a supermarket at Edinburgh, Scotland
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Many of us are reacting WTI in $80- $90 /bbl as if it is in $60s /bbl
Remember below scenarios added in Q4-2022
- SPR release program ends
- OPEC+ 2020 production deal expired, so they can increase or DECREASE production from Oct
Also, low Product price attracts demand
#OOTT
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Unfortunately one of these guys gonna get hurt badly with the way public loosing cool with these types of protest.
#Oil
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Crazy weather in Saudi Arabia, particularly months of May!!
Hail storm and snow followed by floods.
I was caught in a thunderstorm in Riyadh on Friday night, glad was not travelling in these neighbourhoods
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@ericnuttall
Even the worst financial crisis since Great Depression of 1929 put down the demand only by 1 million b/d!
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Dangote refinery
#OOTT
500 tires were needed to move one of the world's largest hydrocracking reactor. 🤯
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In many cases sacrificial elements / coatings are also used to reduce corrosion.
Nord Stream pipeline is one such, a combination of Internal & External Coating.
Hence NS ended up with a FD grade CARBON STEEL pipes, as per DNV OS-F101 (German standard)
#NordStream2
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Will miss this morning view forever!
New day to start with new location.
Bye Bye Dubai🙁 Hi Singapore🙋🏽♂️
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One cannot get anymore sillier
German draft law to extend its nuclear plants life beyond Dec 31, 2022 failed to get approval.🤦🏽🤦🏽
The plant has to undergo urgent maintenance in less than 11 days if its operating life to be extended
#EnergyCrisis
#Nuclear
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That’s all folks. I’ve decided to have my own holiday😉
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India / Pakistan seem to have recorded hottest April in the last 122 years since data collection had began
Some of the Indian Coal Power units are running with 1 day Coal reserves
Whilst Pakistan struggling with Gas plant as some of their LNG cargoes got picked up by EU
#energy
Just in ! Last day of April has witnessed the temperature reaching 49.0C at Jacobabad,Pakistan. First 48C and 49C in the Northern Hemisphere of 2022. 48.0C also at Moen Jo Daro. More updates later with more monthly records falling in India...Stay tuned.
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