If you zoom in on 🇸🇪 Prime Minister Kristersson and 🇹🇷 President Erdogan shaking hands, you get a fairly clear view of the power balance between these two governments at the moment…
I may not be TR gov’s greatest cheerleader. But in its engagement w Assad’s forces TR is, afaict, the sole sovereign state willing to fight Assad’s homicidal tyranny. And I don’t see the world’s greatest democracies stumbling over themselves to save another 1m refugees from Syria
Turkish ambassador to Sweden calls for Swedish MP Amineh Kakabaveh to be extradited to Turkey. She’s of Kurdish descent, born in Iran.
This is a new kind of stupid.
"China now perceives a likelihood that Russia will fail to prevail against Ukraine and emerge from the conflict a “minor power”, much diminished economically and diplomatically on the world stage, according to Chinese officials."
Supporters of PKK/YPG terror groups gather in central Stockholm amid Turkish objection to Sweden’s NATO membership application due to terrorism concern
“[Turkey's] threats have made Greece’s position more credible to the international community as the need to maintain military presence against Turkey is now fully justifiable”
This is back-of-the envelope calculation but as far as I can tell in terms of 2014 province-level GDP, the losses of Ankara, Antalya, Istanbul etc mean AKP now only has local control over 30% of Turkish province GDP, down from 75% before. If this stands that's pretty significant
“Halkbank’s indictment also accuses Erdogan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak of participating in the scheme, though federal prosecutors have not formally charged Albayrak in the conspiracy.”
With the risk of thinking everything is about Us 🇸🇪🇫🇮: for the US to give up air cover of Kurdish regions in NE Syria so that 🇹🇷 can bomb it easier, what’s the quid pro quo? Will 🇫🇮 and 🇸🇪 ultimately be admitted into NATO at the cost of the lives of those who held back ISIS?
In 2014, Turkey came within close to $100 dollars from becoming a "High income" country (as per the World Bank's classification and its GNI per capita measure). Since then, the trajectory is pretty abysmal.
"Nebati said foreigners may struggle to understand the reason for high Turkish inflation due to “cultural differences.. ”"
Was he perhaps referring to the culture of impunity with which your can ruin the economy and not face any consequences?
Could 29 NATO countries exit NATO, create a carbon copy organization with said 29 countries, and THEN invite two new members? (Asking for those two new ones…)
Like any other nation TR is arguably acting in its own state interests rather than pure humanitarian grounds. But if the incentives of NATO’s second largest army - for once - points to kicking the nuts out of one of the region’s worst tyrannies, I don’t see that as net negative.
A desperate, xenophobic hail Mary to try to get the nationalist swing voters. Unlikely to succeed, likely to tarnish the reputation of KK and the opposition
RTE’s threats to expel ambassadors are meant to distract from his real challenges: his sagging popularity, his economic mismanagement, and perceptions that he’s becoming increasingly incapable in a broader sense, and therefore unfit to rule.
The PKK is a terrorist organization so this behavior by a Swedish politician is pretty appalling. But the thread also shows many Swedish politicians have little clue of the context or the language they use when they try to support Kurdish rights.
This is just an insane fact: Taking into account over 4 million Syrians living in Turkey and Turkish-controlled areas in northeast Syria, and another 4,1 million people in shaded regions in map below, Turkey provides care to over 40 % of Syria’s prewar population of 20,5 million
MSCI may reclassify Turkey 🇹🇷 as a Frontier or Standalone market, due to bans on shorting and stock lending “severely restrict[s] the ability of institutional investors to express active investment views and hedge portfolio risk.”
Given all Erdogan’s assurances we wont see a policy reversal (even just a temporary one) in Turkey, even in the middle of a currency crisis, the issue I’m thinking about is how much the banking system can withstand. Even the much heralded resilience of Turkish banks has limits.
Informative graphs on the authoritarian trajectory in Poland, Hungary, Turkey, Brazil, Serbia, India, and others among the "top-10 autocratizing countries", in the new
@vdeminstitute
democracy report
This appears to have occurred rapidly. Haven’t seen any coverage in Swedish media about this case. Looks like the Swedish government is indeed going ahead with extraditions of Kurds to Turkey, despite the risks these individuals face there.
Consequently,
@herkesicinCHP
is now the party with the largest local political control over Turkish province GDP, roughly 2x the amount of second largest party,
@Akparti
“Perhaps the most damning allegation is that Albayrak may have had indirect ties to ISIS’s oil trade — a trade that bankrolls the terrorist group’s operations — through a company called Powertrans.”
The legal travails of author and saririst
@AronFlam
, and the seemingly Kafkaesque process conducted by authorities regarding his book, seems like ripe material for int’l journos looking to cover the underbelly of Swedish democratic institutions. Not pretty
Fitch revises Turkey outlook to negative (sticks to BB- rating). Reasons: depletion of fx reserves to stem lira slide, weak monetary policy credibility, and drop in real rates; resulted in “exacerbated external financing risks.” (via BBG)
Maybe appointing an inexperienced, incompetent, and antisemitic conspiracy theorist as finance minister of Turkey wasn't such a great idea after all...
The Turkish Treasury Minister said the Federal Reserve in the US does not belong to the public, it belongs to FIVE families. What a nut. And all these years I thought it was TEN families.
The US allows Turkish drones to assassinate SDF leaders, then pisses off Turks by tweeting condolences on the death of a “partner” leader. What’s the play here?
Turkey’s 1st local elections under its autocratic institutional system is today. The issue at hand today isnt whether the elections are free & fair (they’re not) but how much legitimacy the gov is willing to forego to ensure it retains power. Even autocrats need legitimacy.
Where others see optimism in an approaching end of RTE's rule in Turkey, I see substantial political risk. I still don't see how the current regime simply allows an election and loses, with all the - to the current elite
- private costs at stake. (Thread)
“What?! He thinks he can lower inflation by *lowering* rates… just as everybody else is raising-… what?… $125bn?… it’s gone?… his son-in-law?… why!?… for a canal?… but isnt there already a-… you mean he wants a second one?!… but why?… oh for ***** sake…”
*ERDOGAN SAYS HE WILL NEVER ADVOCATE FOR A RATE HIKE: HT
Basically, if you're forecasting a rate hike in 2022 in Turkey, you're implicitly assuming a future systemic financial crisis. Because that is what it's going to take for a policy reversal at this point.
The class action suit against the new Turkish central bank governor, Hafize Gaye Erkan, along with other First Republic execs, looks concerning, and is another problem Turkey doesn't need right now
Handing RTE a significant domestic victory. The Turkish government learnt during its first decade in power that the EU cannot be trusted. It learnt during the second decade in power that the EU talks the talk, but doesn't walk the walk.
I don't there are many cases in our history where a central bank had to intervene in FX markets following an attack on the currency by the country's own political leader.
#Turkey
’s gov trying to boost demand for domestic flights and hotel rentals seem outright irresponsible if you’re looking to combat a pandemic. Health spending and quality control ought to be priority number one
The EU lacks the will, capacity, cohesion & energy to get involved in Syria. The US is in the middle of an election campaign and Congress is still pissed w Erdogan over a host of things. I could be wrong, but if it’s a war, Turkey will have to fight it on its own. Not advisable.