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Ed Williams ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ
@dynllandeilo
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Dad, husband, brother, son a Chymro. Cyber and hacking. Views do not represent my workplace. ZHlmYWwgZG9uYyBhIGR5ciB5IGdhcnJlZw== ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ #bitcoin
Gweriniaeth Cymru
Joined June 2013
ARK Invest's 2025 Big Ideas report suggests Bitcoin is on track to meet its 2030 price targets. Three scenarios are projected: Bear Case ($300k, -21% CAGR), Base Case ($710k, 40% CAGR), and Bull Case ($1.5M, 58% CAGR). Price target assumptions include: Institutional Investment: 1% (Bear) to 6.5% (Bull) of Global Investment Portfolio Ex Gold. Digital Gold: 20% (Bear) to 60% (Bull) of Global Market Cap. Emerging Market Safe Haven: 0.5% (Bear) to 6% (Bull) of EM M2 Monetary Base. Nation-State Treasury: 0.5% (Bear) to 7% (Bull) of Global Treasury Reserves Ex Gold. Corporate Treasury: 1% (Bear) to 10% (Bull) of Global Cash & Cash Equivalents. Bitcoin On-Chain Financial Services: 20% (Bear) to 60% (Bull) of L2s, LN, Sidechains, Restaking & WBTC. These projections highlight Bitcoin's potential as a store of value, safe haven, and a key player in financial services by 2030. #Bitcoin #ARKInvest #Crypto #Finance"
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@Steffan_Thomas1 Thank you, this is so interesting. It's such a shame (and i dont blame them one bit) that so many of our players look to move over the border for school. You look at Bath and Bristol and they are full of Welsh boys.
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Grok helped summarise the the new paper that projects Bitcoin future price!! ๐งต A Supply and Demand Framework for Bitcoin Price Forecasting by Murray A. Rudd & Dennis Porter In a recent study published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management, researchers have developed a flexible framework for forecasting Bitcoin's price trajectory. Here's the breakdown: 1/ Bitcoin's unique monetary attributes, like its fixed 21M coin supply, make it an ideal candidate for supply-demand equilibrium modeling. This approach explores how Bitcoin's inelastic supply and evolving demand could shape its future price. 2/ The study uses the April 2024 halving as a baseline to explore various scenarios. They consider different growth rates in adoption, supply-side constraints, and real-world data to predict how these factors might influence Bitcoin's price. 3/ Key findings suggest that institutional and sovereign accumulation could significantly drive Bitcoin's price up, as demand intensifies against a backdrop of constrained supply. Moving Bitcoin from liquid supply to strategic reserves could lead to substantial price appreciation. 4/ However, the study also warns of potential volatility due to high withdrawal levels from liquid supply, which might cause supply scarcity and price fluctuations. This highlights Bitcoin's potential as a long-term investment, emphasizing its role in forward-looking portfolios. 5/ The framework provides a tool for investors and policymakers to test different market scenarios, demand curve forms, and parameterizations. This could help in understanding Bitcoin's strategic asset value, especially in the context of economic models and portfolio strategies. 6/ Bitcoin's fixed supply contrasts with traditional commodities, where increasing demand typically leads to more production. Bitcoin's rarity, with its fixed supply, makes it a unique asset in the financial world, potentially increasing its value over time. This research contributes to the broader understanding of Bitcoin's market dynamics, offering insights into how supply-demand interactions could influence its future as a decentralized store of value. ๐ท [Link to the article:
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