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Perpetual Student l @TheParagonGrp
Live on Mondays @ 17:00 UTC:
Joined June 2014
People looking for cycle top signals 6 days after breaking out of an 8 month range.
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It's not about catching every 10-20x on pennies. It's about executing high conviction plays on size. Most people don't get it.
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The normie friends who I told not to buy XRP probably think I’m retarded.
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So far Cobie has the highest BTC target of anyone I follow. No one else I follow even calling for 150. We have insane PTSD.
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> Multiple 20-30% nukes.> Germany dumping.> Mt Gox. distributions.> Silk road selling.> Israel Iran War.> Equities Indices 10% correction.> VIX hit historic highs.> Japan Yen Carry trade implosion.> Plenty of Macro FUD. Despite that, this is your monthly chart.
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In the past 15 months, every single $LINK move above $8 has lead to, on average, a 22% $BTC sell off
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10k was the ETH consensus target last cycle. 6k is the ETH consensus target this cycle . 💀.
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Let me explain how fomo on the timeline works:. > High conviction participants position heavily in core bags.> Every few weeks a new meta forms.> The pump rotates .> People pre-positioned into said meta become euphoric.> They bullpost their bags relentlessly; feeling vindicated.
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If you change your mindset from. > one 4 year cycle . into. > multiple mini risk-on cycles. I think you'd be overall happier and possibly perform better as your expectations/timeframe would change.
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Bonk guy didn’t run 16k to 16m by derisking local tops in an uptrend . I think about this often.
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> Multiple 20-30% nukes .> Germany dumping .> Mt Gox. distributions.> Silk road selling.> Israel Iran War .> Equities Indices 10% correction .> VIX hit historic highs .> Japan Yen Carry trade implosion .> War Again.> Rates FUD.> Yield Inversion FUD.> War Again, Again.> Election.
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Solana went from 145 to 25 in like two months last cycle without relief. Some of you guys actually have no clue what pain is
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This fake breakdown on BTC.D is imo the most evil shit that's happened this cycle
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If a dev rugs and a memecoin survives due to the community rallying behind it. bet on that coin. I'm 3/3 on this thesis so far.
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8 month range. 1 month trend while XRP does a 5x, the worst traders in the industry get 7 fig airdrops and your bags do fuck all before fully roundtripping in like 10 candles . 8 month range.
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Owen dropped that tweet 12 days ago. In that time span the timeline went from peak glazing to peak hating. Price then: 93k.Price now: 95k. Pure mental illness.
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Historically speaking:. ETH’s best quarter is Q1.ETH’s best year is 1 year post-halving.
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Crypto psychology in a nutshell:. - Miss a move - you feel like shit.- Lose money - you feel like shit.- Made money, but didn't bet enough - you feel like shit.- Made a lot, but missed life changing - you feel like shit.- Literally make life changing money, but Loma made more in.
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BTC was at 43k 48 hours ago.BTC is at 43k right now. Between that was the biggest alt liquidation event in 2 years?
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Vitalik changed his pfp to a Milady and bought *checks notes* 10k of PEPE?
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FTM down 37%.APT down 35%.SUI down 30%.WIF down 35%.PEPE down 40%.DOGE down 30%.SEI down 40%.RNDR down 35%.TIA down 48%.RUNE down 40%.AVAX down 30%.AKT down 40%.OP down 40%.INJ down 40%. Some of these spot buys are going to look really good in a few months.
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This man has found a different way to bull post the entire history of bitcoin chart every day since the ‘21 top . Honestly impressive.
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100x'ing your net worth in 2-3 years is an honest possibility in crypto through hard work, a game plan, skillset, a pair of balls and of course, luck. Only place on earth. Only time in history. Best game ever.
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We're almost done with the full 2021 parabola retrace. If ETHBTC doesn't bottom here I will delete ETH from my watchlist and never mention it again
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So we really spent the entire cycle trying to figure out what normies want just to get mostly everything wrong?.
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1 year sober. I've been a functioning alcoholic for my entire adult life. It was my drug of choice. It was where I unknowingly hid from my problems. Then it became the kindling to my problems. Throughout this year I've wondered if I could ever have a healthy relationship with.
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Today marks 14 years with my high school sweetheart. I couldn't imagine life without her <3
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Most people still don't realize that $PEPE was the chosen one this cycle and that's fascinating to me.
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$1M is an absurd about of money. Don’t let the For You page psyop you into believing otherwise.
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> chop is designed to bore you into rotating. > grind up is designed to sideline and create poor positioning. > flushes are designed to remove your poor positioning.
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This cycle has had two core themes:. AI & Memes. A couple months ago people thought that the AI narrative had completely played out. Currently seems stronger than ever. The past couple of weeks people seem to think that the meme narrative has completely played out. Hmm.
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People suddenly being bearish memes presents a pretty easy opportunity going into Q1 imo.
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This cycle is so left curve that the left curve has it's own mid curve.
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Dear market,. We just sat through an 8 month range. We are the pinnacle of mental illness. Unless you wanna go to zero. Do your fucking worst. We’re all calling the bluff.
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Have had Zoran muted for months but word still gets around in discords etc. He probably elevated himself to Capo status this summer and will live off a steady flow of crypto KOL stuff forever. All bc you guys gave him infinite engagement for his yapping. The truth is, many of.
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The bulk of the 2024 $BTC gains were put in during just 51 days of trading. The other 314 days contained a lot of mental illness. And I loved almost every minute of it
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I've finally gotten to see first hand how much unit bias actually psyops the normies. Got me thinking though:. What if BONK outperforms WIF the rest of the cycle based on this little detail alone bc the final legs of bull markets are retail driven. BONK also has their own.
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You find an amazing HTF setup on a good coin. You wait patiently for the pump to come to you. The coin chops around your entry for a few days. 5% down from entry, 5% up a day later. 7% down: "maybe I should decrease position size". 9% up: "fuck it, market back, I'm not gunna miss.
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$WIF - If you think this coin ever comes back, then this is imo the highest ev place to take that bet
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$ETH - The only guide you need for the rest of the cycle. Ignore everything under weekly tf imo.
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get fucked
> Multiple 20-30% nukes.> Germany dumping.> Mt Gox. distributions.> Silk road selling.> Israel Iran War.> Equities Indices 10% correction.> VIX hit historic highs.> Japan Yen Carry trade implosion.> Plenty of Macro FUD. Despite that, this is your monthly chart.
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Everything (down to rotations) has mirrored Q4 ‘23 btw . Journal more.
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@charliebilello A lot of your subscribers are intelligent enough to realize that cherry picking data to support a narrative can be done in multiple ways to prove multiple outcomes. Since March 20, 2021. ARKK +240%.SPY +100%.
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Green candles on LINK making me more euphoric than green candles on my own bags. Let's go marines, y'all deserve this.
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6 months sober. Have been in dozens of scenarios where drinking is a norm and have not even been tempted in a long while. Feeling cured from a disease that plagued me for a decade.
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Most of us are pretty burnt out after an extremely long two years. Meanwhile, normies are coming in with fresh legs and a more capable skill set than last cycle. Don’t get complacent.
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PEPE has thrived in an ETHBTC down-only regime. What does PEPE do if ETHBTC actually bottoms
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Do nothing. Outperformance. But also stare at charts all day and have anxiety anyways.
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About 9 tweets on my feed telling everyone to log off for a while. Y’all do what you want. I’ll be here grinding regardless of conditions. There’s always opportunity to grow, learn and gain experience. You log off.
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Friendly reminder that you're probably overthinking right now due to 8 months of ptsd.
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$BONK - Turns out every parabolic move on this coin over the past year was actually just the formation of a massive range. What happens when it breaks out of a one year range?
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Sept 6, 2024 notes/thoughts:. - SOL at 125 (apparently diamond) support, no clue how this hasn’t cracked. Still expecting it to break at some point. - BTC at 53k - the consensus level from April that everyone wanted to bid but they got front run the first time, then blown past.
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The real Alt Szn that everyone wants requires ETH to outperform BTC for an extended period of time. The irony is amazing.
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$PEPE . > Access to coinbase and robinhood customers. > Retail finally showing up, they rushed to tech but will shortly remember they got outperformed by doge and shib. > Pepe beginning to infiltrate mindshare on reddit and tik-tok. > ETHBTC (probably) bottomed. > Still hasn't
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I still think PEPE is the comfiest spot hold from today till cycle top. Job not finished.
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$WIF - Hearing some rumblings that Wif holders have been a bit disgruntled with price action lately. Imo this pretty standard accumulation range price action. Be patient. WIF separated itself from the pack. It marked up to valuations that few memes have. It takes time for
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