Dennis Montoro
@dennycaps1
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Pro bettor that creates prediction models focused on horse racing and sports. Trying to take advantage of my advantage.
Denver, CO
Joined May 2014
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So you want to bet for a living? A short thread on my first 4 months as a full-time bettor. I've done this in the past, but I like to journal my thoughts, observations, etc as it relates to betting. 1/15
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If anyone wants to learn how to turn $50k into $0 in one race, please DM me. Packages are selling fast!
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This is something I plan to do on some basis to keep me honest and journal. More to discuss but I don't want to write a novel on here.
TLDR rebates are nice, race selection/field size is key, variance sucks but should be embraced, small tracks = waste, poly is an opp
15/15
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So you want to bet for a living? Part 9
June 2024 marks 3 years of full-time betting for me. At this point, my former corporate career feels like it was 20 years ago. Don't think I would ever be able to go back to something like that. Some thoughts:
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Strictly from a gambling perspective, the synthetic surface debate is dumb IMO. It’s the most misunderstood surface in the world. And what that means is that the bettors you play against don’t price entries as good as other surfaces. (1/2)
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Those CAWs that everyone loves to blame are weaker on the synth. Combine that with the potential for larger fields and you are ultimately improving the betting product. If you’re actually trying to win, you should be studying synth harder than anything since it will have a future
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So you want to bet for a living? (Part 6)
Some more thoughts and observations as my 3rd year betting horses and sports full-time has begun, but this will be more horse racing focused:
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I will repeat that selling horse racing picks/data is not something I will ever understand.
Credit
@_Spraguer
for this. It applies to sports betting but also to horses and pari-mutuel. See bottom right box. Why would you want others to depress your prices in large markets?
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So you want to bet for a living? Part 2
Below are my thoughts and results from a betting period of 12/23/21 - 2/28/22. Also included are my results from when I started playing professionally. Of course, all results posted are AFTER rebate.
1/12
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My thoughts on the CAW panel from today:
@PatCummingsNTA
was the most passionate person on ANY panel from today. His point about increasing field size leading to exponential handle growth cannot be overlooked. And I loved that he doubled down on it that he would address it
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If I’m going to finish 3rd, I don’t mind losing to my friend
@ZhouGuanyang
and a fellow pro. Also decided to win the $500 summer contest. I’m liking Chicago
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So you want to bet for a living? Part 4
No update from me since August 2022. I’m approaching the two year mark (June 2023) of being a professional bettor, and here are some thoughts I’ve accumulated:
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I’m having a hard time understanding the logic of touting plays and selling picks…and how it’s being legitimized in 2023. Maybe it’s the bad taste in my mouth from the Jim Feist days, but I don’t get it. And it’s 100x worse in a parimutuel game like horse racing.
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Here is one alpha leak:
Focus on the POLY surface results. It represented 13% of total handle which isn't peanuts. I've seen a lot of people refuse to bet poly, but I really think that is a mistake. It's easily the most confusing surface to bet...confusion = opportunity 14/15
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I found an old USB of mine from 2006. Just loaded with some comical Excel files trying to beat sports. Here is an NBA totals gem:
Don't say I never give out any alpha
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I know this is discussed ad nauseum, but it is amazing how much more important it is to bet properly in horse racing compared to handicapping. It can easily turn an average bettor into a winning one if done right. Similar to getting the best line possible in sports betting.
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Love or hate this guy, he is a path to more eyes on the sport. Imagine barstool live covering the BCBC. Similar to WSOP/Moneymaker effect
Are there any massive influencers who every demo knows and who actually loves horse racing, goes to all major events, own horses and still totally and completely get ignored by the sport? I can't think of any.
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So you want to bet for a living? (Part 7)
Some thoughts and observations as I am well into my 3rd year betting horses and sports full-time using prediction models:
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I’ve decided to start a discord server that focuses on betting, handicapping, and modeling horse racing. Most of the convos on here are more racing news and how to fix the game. Of course there are issues, but this server will be focused only on betting.
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Not sure who else noticed this except for my friend
@ZhouGuanyang
, but I was fairly DQ’d from the Xpressbet kings plate contest today after having the highest bankroll. Don’t get distracted when planning your min bets folks
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Congrats to Matt Miller and
@Utbighair
for besting me late. Fun 2 days and already excited for next year.
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Reviewing my play recently....here is a breakdown of my handle from the last 30 days by track.
Just remember a dollar from Evangeline is the same as a dollar from Saratoga.
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I don't want to come off like a curmudgeon, because I am not one like most, but I genuinely sense zero confidence about the future from this group of execs. They keep referencing embracing change...it starts with the gamblers and stabilizing handle. Guess how you do that?
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100% easier to win at sports. But if you have a sustainable edge in horses, you probably make more $ than your average winning sports bettor.
I thought I would post a few observations after attending Bet Bash and spending many hours listening to and chatting with others.
Hopefully, these may be of interest to some on horse racing twitter/X. (1 of N)
More thoughts to come tomorrow.
@dennycaps1
@silk1900
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Had some good convos at the BC. Lot of nice feedback on my posts. Appreciate that. One convo that I always seem to have is someone asking me for advice on finding an edge in racing...given the state of the game. Always a tough question to answer, but heres usually what I say:
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So you want to bet for a living? Part 3 (Annual Recap)
It's been awhile since I've tweeted an update. I didn't really feel motivated to do it after being accused in DM's of being attention-seeking and a fraud, etc, but it's been almost a year since I have started this journey:
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The sooner people understand the NHC is a horseplayers convention with a lottery, the better
NTRA/NHC can do whatever they want to horseplayers because they know they are brainwashed sheep and will keep coming back because they are morons.
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So you want to bet for a living? (Part 8)
March 2024 marks 3 months away from betting full-time for 3 years. Wow that went fast. Winter break is over and I've been back at since Feb.
Some thoughts, observations, etc:
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Here are my monthly results AFTER rebate (and this does not count tournaments):
November was my only losing month, but it was also my lowest handle.
BEFORE rebate, my ROI is about -2%. I'm able to get ~9% rebate by primarily betting WIN, EXACTA, and DOUBLE pools. 7/15
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Most horseplayers are very aware of how field size can affect your expected value, and 75% of my handle is wagered on races with 8 or more entries....and the ROI is healthier. Again, not rocket science here, but it's nice to see this approach has led to success 10/15
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That’s me
Big Score ✅ Congratulations Dennis on taking down the 2018 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge with a final bankroll of $42,000 💰
$75,000 💵
$10,000 BCBC Entry 🏇
NHC Entry & $1,000 Travel Expenses 🖊️
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For my fair odds crew, give this a listen. The discussion on frequentist and Bayesian approaches should help explain the potential downside to betting a fair odds line. Not saying that approach can’t work, but a Bayesian (range of prices) is more suitable
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I have found myself spending way too much time trying to explain variance. Below is a zoomed out Profit and Loss chart using a daily settlement. You can see how extreme some days can be. 11/15
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Always a pleasure to be interviewed. It was fun recounting how I finished 3rd in the BCBC
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I think my biggest takeaway from the
@bet_bash
panels was
@DavidowMatthew
’s point that most rec sports bettors don’t want to use up a lot of time to figure out this bets. Where dfs players may need to spend 30+ min figuring out a lineup. And it’s similar with horse racing…(1/x)
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Not sure if any of this makes sense, but spend less time complaining/worrying and always be improving or enjoying life. This only applies to people who are choosing to win....and most people on here choose to complain IMO. Winning money isn't some altruistic endeavor
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Daruty's point about how there will always be winners/losers resonates with any advantage gambler. Takeout aside, this is a zero sum game similar to the stock market. Remove the best players, and the worst players still lose.
@InsideThePylons
made this exact point recently
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Seeing the usual CAW boogeyman for the only reason for the handle drop. I went to a large sports betting conference where 95% of the room (age 25-50) didn’t know how pari-mutuel markets work. These are the people who are “supposed” to be the next horseplayers to sustain/grow
According to data released Friday by Equibase, handle in 2023 fell by $447,759,362 for a decline of 3.7 percent.
Outside of the COVID year of 2020, this was the steepest decline based on percentage of handle since 2011.
@BillFinley3
reports.
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@goldenpants013
Just the age old question. Why? You made a milly and want to share those edges?
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@NoJokeNHL
check out my blog post on my nhl model. I think you'll like it:
http://t.co/CVTjzTRXuZ
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This idea may not be for all, but the idea of a horseplayers collective has a lot of upside IMO. The collective probably exists today on this app, and it's a nightmare to watch from here.
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The above chart is pretty, but it can be difficult to "trust the process" during minor losing streaks. I try to find reasons why I lose, but it's the nature of probability. Gamblers are familiar with bad beats, but variance should be embraced if you have an edge. 12/15
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You’re all debating post position 17 and I’m out here scouting Costa Rican breds. We are not the same.
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I used to believe that track consolidation is "healthy" for the sport, but that just can't be the case. There's just no way those dollars are going to be re-allocated 1 for 1. Not a horseman, but will all those horses find new circuits to run? I don't see it work that way
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I can’t believe it’s considered “content” now to victory lap getting limited, holding grudges against rec books, complaining about being limited when you’re a net loser on an account, etc. You want to get down? Bet horses
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Horse racing needs to cater more to the curious gamblers who want more of an intellectual challenge….rather than brand new gamblers. This was my point on the
@derby1592
’s podcast that there may be an opportunity to draw gamblers who want more intellectual challenge
(2/2)
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Not even half way though and there’s some hidden gems in here. The skeptical handicapper is a great book for how to deal with pari-mutuels
Episode 23 of the Bet With the Best podcast (sponsored by
@AmWager
) with the horseplayer/author Barry Meadow is now available.
A link to the pod and Highlights/timestamp are available below.
Enjoy.
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This panel is really depressing. They basically admitted they know they need to work together to make changes, but it'll never happen.
Speaking
@UA_RTIP
Symposium on Racing,
@1st_racing
Executive Craig Fravel says foal crop is more important than handle. "We talk a lot about competing for wagering dollars, but what we're really in competition for is horses. That's the wake up call. We need owners."
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There seems to be this new generation of +EV bettors (i hate that term so much) who either originate or top-down bet or both. And I've felt that horse racing could be attractive to those data-focused bettors. But as we know, the industry doesn't market as a skill game.
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Despite my comment on maximizing rebate by betting as many races as poss, I've been reducin my handle in a healthy way by being more strict about race selection. In fact, I use some methods to exclude about 35% of races on a given day that I do not think provide any value. 9/15
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So you want to bet for a living? Part 5 (2 year review)
June 2023 marks 2 years being a professional bettor. Here are some thoughts about doing this full-time for 2 years across sports and horse racing:
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Back to race selection and the 34 tracks I wagered at...I have completely stopped wagering at the smallest tracks. It's become a waste of time in comparison to the larger tracks. You can easily bet your edge away due to the pari-mutuel nature 13/15
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Final Thoughts (lots of clichés)
I've been fortunate to do this full-time for 2 years now. I absolutely love it as it has been a passion for quite some time. It's true what they say that it's a hard way to make an easy living, but I wouldn't want any other life at this point.
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@EJXD2
If I was a racing suit, I would make the tagline “WE CATER TO WINNERS” similar to Circa with sports betting. Your direct competition is facing that issue…granted a small population of gamblers, but it’s growing. Would love to eventually see it marketed as a skill game.
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Observations:
Obviously rebate makes all the difference to my initial success, but my approach has been to maximize rebate by betting a wide # of races. More thoughts on this later...but during this 4 month period, I wagered at 34 different tracks across 1,430 races. 8/15
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Finally listened to this one. What a treasure to listen to a pioneer of finding an edge out of creating your own data.
Also an honor that my episode was bookended by Maury and Andy
Andy Beyer on the latest Bet With the Best Podcast:
“What has been most disheartening, is the birth of the Rainbow 6 and all of its imitators, which are the most fan unfriendly innovations that have ever come down the Pike. My my best advice is never play them.”
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It was a pleasure to discuss my approach with Chris. He is a great interviewer!
Episode 9 of the Bet With the Best podcast just dropped. We have something new and interesting this week as we welcome pro player Dennis Montoro
@dennycaps1
who uses computer models to make a living betting on horse races and other sports. Enjoy :-)
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Anyone interested in me doing an AMA spaces tonight while Hawthorne runs? I have a rare Wednesday night to myself
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People are blaming Stronach for GG, but isn't this a horse population/foal crop issue? What am I missing?
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Can’t wait for fixed odds in horse racing? Be careful. Yes, it’s something different that addresses pari mutuel issues. But it won’t offer the perk of liquidity and scalability that pari mutuel can provide.
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After winning my first live bankroll tourney in the summer of 2018 at Del Mar, I was introduced to the concept of rebate. It's a well known fact and highly debated topic that liquidity providers are offered a volume rebate to reduce the takeout. 5/15
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Applaud Ed for the annual introspection. Reducing handle via race selection (through analysis of records) is a cheat code for losing players. Conditions of race (field size being the big one) should also influence your selection.
ICYMI, I lost 9.5% of what I bet last year and discovered a major leak along the way.
@HR_Nation
with more.
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Left column is a bucket for all horses given their implied probability according to my fair odds. Right column is ROI for win pool if you blindly take each horse within the bucket (rebate included). Understand this bias and how takeout is distributed
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On
@EmilyOptixEQ
spaces from tonight,
@johng032
made a comment that "pro gamblers might be satisfied leaving with $30-40k from the BCBC (rather than shoving all-in) because they need to earn an income (paraphrased)". And while he isn't exactly wrong, I think it depends. (1/4)
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I find these A-track boutique meets like SAR, DMR, KEE fun and challenging to bet on with all the shippers, but I think a lot of players get wrecked....and the best players make out great. Variance most likely higher than normal tracks. 1/2
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And I know there are plenty of conventions with industry people, but I feel like there is a need for a horseplayers-centric event. To share some ideas, form some collective opinions on industry improvement, become more educated, etc.
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Most questions were about modeling approaches. My advice: creating fair prices is tough. If you're not betting last and not the largest bettor, you're subjected to final prices which may not align with your projections.
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I started focusing on horse racing tournies via the NHC. I rarely actually bet in the pari-mutuel pools as I assumed the high takeout would be too high to overcome. I had some initial success with tournaments and started to see some signal from my models. 4/15
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@Pullthepocket
Make 100 bets of equal staking. Win 20 of them at $5, lose 80 of them at $1. You're break even. Now your payout is $5.50 on the 20 wins. You have a +10% ROI instead of being a break even player. But takeout doesn't matter according to this app
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Winning Lifestyle
The goal has and always will be financial freedom and never having a job again. Winning is truly a choice to me. Not financial advice at all, but even before I went full-time I was "investing" in myself. I'm always willing to pay for comfort and convenience
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Quick thoughts on January betting and NHC: I’ll do a formal ROI recap end of Feb as I believe there are winter concepts to journal. January was not profitable but I have found the winter months to be tough and it’ll will be my focus when I journal. ROI still +3% since sept 1st
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4 Types of "Value"
I've summarized 4 different ways my models find value in the pools I play (WIN/EX/DD):
1. Underbet Strong Favorites - this may sound blasphemous to some, but there are some cases where betting 2/5 shots w/ rebate provide value. Read up on the longshot bias
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If you want to read about how CAWs already made the game extinct and other recycled conversations, stay here. If you want to discuss concepts that could actually give you edges, join me:
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I see a lot of people complain or brag about getting limited. Honestly, that’s the wrong attitude. Move on and figure out what’s next. The game is the game, the rules are the rules.
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It started making sense that I could actually make money betting in these pools with the reduced takeout. It took me a few years to gain the confidence and experience to make the decision, but I have been primarily betting horses full-time since Sept 1st 6/15
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This paper and included date are very outdated, but I wanted to reproduce the favorite-longshot bias analysis on my databae spanning from 2016-2022.
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You can embrace the grind of searching for liquidity, or you can try (and probably fail) to be an end boss. I might want to shift more time into trying to be an end boss. Whether that’s expanding my horse racing repertoire or one of the sports markets I originate, time will tell
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@InsideThePylons
Nothing says intelligence more than arguing about being smarter than someone else
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It's easier to find horses that will be under-bet or over-bet relative to their closing prices. Study why horses are priced the way they are. You don't need to be precise with your fairs if you find a horse taking 40% of the pool and you believe that horse is overbet.
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Being a self-taught quant of sorts, I've been modeling prediction markets for about 8 years. Started modelling sports markets like MLB and smaller niche markets, but moved to horse racing around 2016 after seeing my edge shrink and constantly being limited by sportsbooks 3/15
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@RepoleStable
Market the betting as a skill game. With legal sports betting now maturing, there is growing interest in intellectual approaches to winning at sports betting....with focus from people under 40. What % of our handle comes from under 40? Unfortunately, the game is literally dying
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I’ve been journaling my thoughts during a betting day and simply learning from them…despite most of my betting being automatic. Pari mutuel pools offer a more complex problem than fixed markets and require so much more study
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Here are my pre-market Kentucky Derby fair odds (adjusted for Omaha Beach scratch) compared to the ML. Model will sharpen when market opens. Improbable looking like my favorite with some potential for value.. Vekoma looks interesting as the colt is due for improvement.
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Race Selection
I went on
@derby1592
's podcast and spoke multiple times about how lousy I am at maiden races. I also spoke to how I believe race selection is an important source of edge in my game. Well ever since telling the community I suck at maidens, I've turned that around
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Horse racing contest leaderboard has 650k views and growing
#makehorseracinggreatagain
BREAKING NEWS.
@elio82
is in 1st heading into the last race. THE SYNDICATE HAS NEVER WON A CONTEST.
#PegasusWorldCup
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Looking forward to this
Please note that for the first time ever
@bet_bash
will include a seminar on horse racing. I am really looking forward leading that seminar sponsored by
@AmWager
which also will include
@Silk1900
and
@dennycaps1
I hope some of you can join us and
@spanky
in Vegas this August.
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@LongOnTheGrass
+EV means positive expected value. Just someone placing a bet at a certain price they perceive as valuable. An originator creates their own fair price. A top down bettor uses the sharpest market price as a guide to make decisions
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@InsideThePylons
99% of players lose money. Of course they’re going to complain and leave. Honestly if they spent as much time trying to beat the game as they do complaining, it would be more enjoyable even in the shit conditions of todays game
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Finally, here is my cumulative PnL chart since the beginning.
Again, my thoughts are my opinions and don't apply to everyone. I will look to update my records end of April. 12/12
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Also forgot to mention this when I was discussing focusing on a niche before expanding…focus on a niche for 3-6 months. Gauge your performance in that niche vs. your overall performance. Or even be disciplined and only bet that niche and gauge that 3-6 month perf vs. LY
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