Deniz Selman
@denizselman33
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What an absolute treat to get to sit and talk some investment banking, some football, and some nonsense with the great
@bbrooks_79
,
@Bo_Wulf
, and
@ZBerm
.
Excited for today's episode at 1:30, getting into the nitty-gritty of Managerial Economics with professor
@denizselman33
and one of his star students, the great
@bbrooks_79
.
@ZBerm
will also be there!
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I think there is enough evidence at this point to safely say that, if the NFL really cares about preventing QB injuries, they will ban Kyle Shanahan.
Here’s the moment Brock Purdy took a blow to the head.
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NFC Championship Games since 2001
7x : PHI, SF
6x : GB
5x :
4x :
3x : SEA, CAR, ATL, NO, LAR/STL
2x : CHI, NYG, ARI, MIN, TB
1x : DET
0x : DAL, WAS
#NFLPlayoffs
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Chase Young trying to become the first ever player to lose to the
#Eagles
four times in the same season.
Sources: Former No. 2 overall pick
#Commanders
DE Chase Young is being traded to the
#49ers
. Incredible. Likely a mid-round pick in 2024.
After dealing Montez Sweat to the
#Bears
, Washington now trades Young to one of the NFL’s best.
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Gannon in the second half
TD, TD, TD, knee for SB winning FG.
Desai in the second half
punt, punt, fumble, punt, punt, downs.
#FlyEaglesFly
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If you want to feel good about the
#Eagles
, consider that there are four 10-3 teams in the NFL and then try finding all of them on this chart plotting strength of schedule to date.
(Chart from .)
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I could have sworn that I not only made that chart but also put my name on it, just below where it was cropped.
Saints are up on the Falcons 24-6
Rams are beating the 49ers 17-3
If all of this holds up, the Eagles would get the 6th seed and play at Tampa Bay next weekend
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Not a surprise that Gannon is allowing 100% of his head coaching interviews to be completed.
We’ve completed our interview with Eagles Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Gannon for our head coaching position.
📰 »
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Anecdotally, it felt to me like the
#Eagles
are unusually good in the second half of games in non-garbage time this year.
So I checked.
#FlyEaglesFly
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We should have some class and take a moment to congratulate the San Francisco 49ers, the fair and square 2023 Week 13 Champions.
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NFC number 1 seeds since 2002
5x : PHI
3x : SEA, GB
2x : DAL, NO, ATL
1x : CHI, NYG, CAR, SF
AFC number 1 seeds since 2002
7x : NE
3x : DEN, KC
2x : IND, TEN
1x : OAK, PIT, SD, BAL
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Complete seeding/matchup scenarios for NFC playoffs going into Week 18.
#NFLPlayoffs
#FlyEaglesFly
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Heroic, legendary comeback win as a double digit home favorite with multiple weeks of rest over a 7 seed in which he horrendously missed on throws throughout the game and tried to throw multiple interceptions. Also I cannot believe
@TheAthletic
actually pays this guy.
Brock Purdy answered every single doubt and criticism by delivering a comeback playoff drive that has immediately become part of 49ers legend.
That's what Joe Montana used to do
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The 49ers, who were comprehensively crushed by the
#Eagles
in the NFC CG last year & have lost 3 times as many games as the Eagles playing a far easier schedule, are favorites this week because they will be allowed to dress Brandon Allen as QB3.
It’s going to be a fun week.
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The Dallas Cowboys are about to be the first ever number 2 seed to not get to the Divisional round. 😎
#NFLPlayoffs
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For
#Eagles
fans not happy with how convincing yesterday was, note that Week 1 is weird: 2021 playoff teams playing against non-playoff teams went 1-5 across the league. The Eagles were the only such team to win.
#FlyEaglesFly
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If you're going to ban it, just ban it. Don't soft ban it by instructing refs to throw 100% horseshit flags on it every week.
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On the bright side, the
#Eagles
have never won a Super Bowl in which Matt Patricia wasn’t a defensive play caller.
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The thing people just don’t understand about Kyle Shanahan is that not winning a single game for a whole month is actually good.
Objective NFL Power Rankings Through Week 9
-- The Bengals are BACK
-- The Bills are the lowest they've been in a loooong time
-- Grain of salt for the QB switching teams (LA, ARI)
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On Sunday the
#Eagles
will become the first NFL team to enter a game with at least two fewer losses than every single other team in the league since the Eagles did it back in 2022.
#FlyEaglesFly
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So sad to see yet another steep spike. Get vaccinated, people.
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Updated NFC playoff scenarios from just an
#Eagles
perspective, updated after Saturday night's result.
#FlyEaglesFly
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The Eagles have never not won the Super Bowl when Jake Elliott makes a 61 yard FG.
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Strength of schedule played so far (by EPA):
Opp offenses: PHI 6th, SF 29th
Opp defenses: PHI 9th, SF 7th
But sure if the
#Eagles
had a daunting stretch like CLE/MIN/CIN this season instead of a string of cupcakes like DAL/KC/BUF, who knows what the records would be.
@denizselman33
Niners have played a more difficult schedule. Didn’t have Brock, and are statistically better in nearly every category. It will be a good game. If both play their best game, Niners win easily.
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All of these slants and curls Mahomes is throwing against Cover 0 blitzes…those aren’t sight adjustments or hot routes. They’re just quick game routes called when you anticipate blitz. It doesn’t have to be hard.
#Eagles
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Record vs. teams which finished with winning records:
PHI 7-1
SF 4-1
DAL 6-2
MIN 4-3
SEA 3-3
TB 2-5
NYG 2-7
—
KC 5-2
BUF 5-2
CIN 4-3
MIA 4-5
JAC 3-4
BAL 2-6
LAC 1-5
#FlyEaglesFly
#NFLPlayoffs
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49ers were 4th in defensive DVOA in 2023 and (not that you should make these decisions based on one game) held Patrick Mahomes to 2 TD drives on 13 tries: 1 was on a 16 yard field, the other was because he had 4 downs on every series because that's what Shanahan preferred.
A change in San Francisco: Steve Wilks is out as the 49ers defensive coordinator.
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I see illegal hands to the face on 57 with just as much impact on the play (basically none), so that’s offsetting, replay 3rd down.
If you call everything you see in slow motion, there’d be 50 flags every game.
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"No slight to this offense but it's a RPO, college type deal. There's certain reads that they tell him to look for. We’ve got to do a great job not tipping those reads off." -49ers DC Steve Wilks
See Fred Warner (54) not tipping off even slighty that a football play is happening.
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Obligatory update of the
#Eagles
2021 record by uniform combination:
White on black: 3-0
Black on black: 2-0
White on green: 1-0
White on white: 1-1
Green on white: 2-6
#jerseycombinationanalytics
#FlyEaglesFly
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Jalen Hurts had a poor game against SF, but those (who I refuse to name) stating or agreeing with any conclusion for this season other than that his play has been awesome and he’s a flat out winner is either dishonest, unserious, hungry for attention, or all of the above.
Quarterback Production in Expected Pass Situations - Through Week 13
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If…
NYG lose next 4 (@ SEA, ARI, CLE, @ BAL),
WAS loses at least 3 of next 4 (@ PIT, @ SF, SEA, CAR),
DAL loses at least 2 of next 3 (@ BAL, @ CIN, SF).
Then Eagles would control own destiny to win NFC East even at 3-10-1 (on a 6-game skid) going into their Week 16 game.
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13 play drive, 12 play drive, 13 play drive…the Jonathan Gannon experience.
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#Eagles
defense has now allowed 59 points on the last 9 drives, allowing 36/37 series to be converted as first downs in that stretch.
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Complete NFC & AFC playoff seeding scenarios going into Week 18 Sunday (updated after Saturday's results).
#NFLPlayoffs
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When the
#Eagles
played the Jags in London in 2018, Schwartz blitzed like crazy once the game got going and asked about it in his next presser he said it was because the Wembley field was so slick the 4-man rush had no chance so he completely adjusted his approach.
@denizselman33
And he never seemed to realize that for whatever reason (I blame the slick field, but that may be my bias) the pass rush wasn't working, and thus never made any adjustment. Andy clearly was aware of it, and won because of it.
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36 days ago, this team was 10-1, which was 2 games clear of everyone else in the league. Would love to hear the league history folks to come up with a comparable collapse. I can’t think of one.
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You’ve been here for 10 years and haven’t beaten a single good team in a playoff series that entire time, haven’t provided one actual memorable playoff moment. Why expect your fans to pay more for this game than Knicks fans who are excited about a team that just got good?
"Kind of pisses me off, especially because Philly is considered a sports town."
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Perfect example of Gannon:
3rd & 5
Cover 4 match (off coverage)
“Blitz” from Reddick pointlessly playing as stacked LB
Blitz comes from RB side->TJ has impossible task of covering flat route from the other side since the TE is clearly going to clear the corner.
Easy first down.
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I'm sure this has already been discussed but Jalen Hurts finished the game with 368 total net yards, more than the Chiefs' 340 total yards as a team.
It was a historically great performance by a clearly great quarterback and it's really too bad that it wasn't enough to win.
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Arizona Cardinals Defense (through Week 16)
32nd DVOA
32nd EPA/play
32nd success rate
32nd series conversion rate
32nd points/drive
32nd TD/drive
32nd yards/drive
They probably should have hired a defensive head coach.
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These are obviously just one game samples, but guess which of the 12 quarterbacks on Wild Card Weekend had the highest completion percentage over expectation while attempting much harder than average throws? Same story all year.
#Eagles
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The weekly update of the "Jalen Hurts makes the hardest throws in the league" graph.
Hurts is back to leading the NFL in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), in large part because his expected completion percentage (61.6%) is second lowest in the league.
#Eagles
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Happier days.
Desai obviously got stuff wrong and suffered some rough stretches, but he was handed a slow, decaying roster and then unfairly stabbed in the back. I think more highly of him than either of the other two guys who have called the defense these past 3 years.
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He’s right that all 32 would punt. And all 32 would be wrong. I could also have all 32 head coaches take my game theory midterm next week & all 32 would get every question wrong.
Ignore the other coaches & follow the math. It’ll give you an advantage. (We’ll get there one day.)
#Eagles
HC Nick Sirianni on punting on 4th-and-3 from their own 32 in the 4th quarter: "I think you get 32 out of 32 head coaches punting right there every time. There are no regrets."
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I think we can all agree that the 49ers have precisely the Lombardi they deserve.
The best news coming out of Sunday for the 49ers is that 24-year-old Brock Purdy was again absolutely legit.
Coming off a season of
#1
efficiency, Purdy went toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes in a 15-round Super Bowl.
That alone has set the 49ers up for continued contention
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The
#Eagles
’ defense has allowed 78 conversions on 3rd down and another 13 on 4th down, meaning that teams have converted 91/165 (55.2%) when they have reached 3rd down, which ranks dead last in the NFL.
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If the plan for 4th & 2 is to punt, then just sneak it twice when it's 3rd & 2 next time.
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If only there had been some way to know before the game that Wink Martindale would blitz a lot. Could’ve prepared for it then.
#Eagles
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Here are the
#Eagles
running zone read leaving Nick Bosa unblocked on consecutive plays in Week 2 last year.
Play 1: Bosa plays the RB, Jalen keeps, 9 yard gain.
Play 2: Bosa plays the QB, handoff to Miles, 7 yard gain.
#FlyEaglesFly
#NFCChampionshipGame
#SFvsPHI
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Dear
@TheAthletic
can you please refund the portion of my subscription that you use to pay this person? He seems to already be sufficiently compensated by the team he ostensibly covers as a journalist. Thanks!
Eagles averaged 3.8 yards per play and there’s a case to be made that 49ers would’ve shut them out in the first half if DeVonta Smith non-catch was called correctly. SF defense only faltered after offense went into QB hell
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The “quarterback can’t elevate” part is just piling on and hitting him when he’s down. The schematic add part is sadly true and has been clear.
On the Eagles offense: without elite receivers, this is what it's going to look like. There is no schematic add and the quarterback can't elevate, especially when blitzed -- that's been known for years.
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The annual “the
#Eagles
leave their tackles on islands like no other team in the league because they’re extremely good so please don’t take them for granted” graph.
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Insane decision making from the
#Eagles
coaches and players today. I am losing my mind up here.
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Everyone who keeps posting these 2013 WFT coaching staff photos knows that the 2013 WFT offense sucked (24th DVOA, 25th pts/drive) and that these four guys have spent a combined 58 years in the NFL with zero rings, right? 58 years! What about them are we celebrating, again?
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#Eagles
had 94th percentile production on passes and median level production on runs (& remember passes are far more productive on average), but chose to run it at a 94th percentile rate relative to expectation.
Keep chanting and making signs, though.
NFL Week 17 - Advanced Stats Review
Arizona Cardinals 35 - Philadelphia Eagles 31
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Record (including playoffs) vs. teams which finished with winning records:
PHI 7-1
SF 5-1
DAL 6-2
BUF 6-2
KC 5-2
CIN 5-3
JAC 4-4
NYG 3-7
#FlyEaglesFly
#NFLPlayoffs
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The
#Eagles
are undefeated (6-0) under Nick Sirianni when wearing white on midnight green. It is the only uniform combination (other than Kelly green on grey) in which they have not lost in that period. (The last loss was 2020 Week 15 in Arizona under Doug Pederson.)
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Prescott's final numbers vs
#Eagles
:
vs zone: 24/24, 300 yards, 12.5 ypa, 3 TD
vs man: 3/11, 47 yards, 4.3 ypa, 1 INT
Unbelievable.
Dak Prescott earned a season-high 91 NGS passing score in Week 16.
Prescott completed all 24 of his passes against zone coverage for 300 yards & 3 TD, becoming the only player to earn a perfect 99 NGS passing score vs zone in a game since 2018.
#PHIvsDAL
|
#DallasCowboys
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Let’s be honest. Once Brock Purdy got hurt, there was no way this fearsome 49ers D-line was going to stop the
#Eagles
running game.
#FlyEaglesFly
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With today’s results, the
#Eagles
are now certain to win the SOV tiebreaker over DET if both teams win next week, so an Eagles win + DAL loss would give the Eagles the 2 seed no matter what DET does.
(If you don’t care, I understand but please don’t feel the need to tell me.)
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Never a doubt. 10-1.
#FlyEaglesFly
Anecdotally, it felt to me like the
#Eagles
are unusually good in the second half of games in non-garbage time this year.
So I checked.
#FlyEaglesFly
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What’s not “aesthetically pleasing” is clear catches not counting, plays negated for irrelevant ineligible downfield fouls, the play clock expiring and nobody noticing, guys ushering chains(!) to measure distance like we’re in 1926, etc etc etc. Seriously, of all the things…
The NFL is expected to look into banning the “tush-push” QB sneak method this off-season, per FOX NFL Rules Analyst Dean Blandino. “The NFL wants to showcase the athleticism and skill of our athletes. This is just not a skillful play. It’s not an aesthetically pleasing play.”
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Thanks to Jason Kelce for 13 years of keeping it real with us through the good, the bad, and the all-time unforgettable moments.
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Safe to say the
#Eagles
will rank in the top 31 in motion next year.
The
#Eagles
are expected to hire
#Chargers
OC Kellen Moore to be their new coordinator, per me and
@TomPelissero
. One of the top OCs around, Moore was blocked from all interviews until Jim Harbaugh was hired.
He quickly lands in Philly after an interview in Cleveland.
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Such a fitting finale to the
#Eagles
defensive film.
For who knows what reason, Patrick Johnson comes on for his only snap of the game, nobody knows where to line up, 3(!) guys chase the motion guy, and Reddick predictably gets mauled having kicked inside to 4i (who knows why).
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Most wins by
#Eagles
QBs (all time)
1) McNabb 92-49-1 (.651)
2) Jaworski 69-67-1 (.507)
3) Cunningham 63-43-1 (.593)
4) Wentz 35-32-1 (.522)
5) Hurts 34-15 (.694)
Jalen Hurts can get to 35 wins on Sunday to tie Wentz for 4th all time, needing 18 fewer games to do so.
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Unfortunately, Miles Sanders' position on this chart matches the eye test. Still regularly does not follow perfect blocks and frustratingly thinks he can juke unblocked guys instead.
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NFC & AFC Week 18
#NFLPlayoffs
scenario charts!
All 8 NFC games have implications so to make the chart readable I separated it into two tables: one for seeds 1/2/3/5, one for seeds 4/6/7. I aligned seeds to be in the same column as their Wild Card matchups from the other table.
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The pre-snap disarray from the
#Eagles
here is genuinely comical. 63 snaps into the defensive film and I am laughing to avoid crying.
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What an absolute thrill to be on BwF with
@Bo_Wulf
,
@SheilKapadia
,
@ZBerm
, and
@Marissa_Morris
! Felt like I was just hanging out and laughing the whole time. Thanks again for the invite!
New BwF: Examining the Eagles’ COVID situation with
@ZBerm
and
@SheilKapadia
before an electric appearance from
@denizselman33
the 🐐.
Watch:
Listen:
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They may have racked up some easy wins so far, but the schedule is about to get ROUGH for Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Seattle: over the course of the next several weeks, they will all have to play the
#Eagles
.
#FlyEaglesFly
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What a ridiculous thing to say. Did the Eagles somehow have exclusive, patented rights to this play? Or were they just smartest about using it? Maybe make going for it on 4th down illegal too, since every team doesn’t do it?
Either they make the Eagles push sneak illegal this offseason or every team needs to be doing it next year.
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This 49ers versatility is making me dizzy. Have to check who got stuffed for a loss after every play.
#FlyEaglesFly
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Why can’t the
#Eagles
do anything normally? Just announce whatever the hell you decided normally and all at once.
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Just 17 players & 4 coaches (for now) remain from the
#Eagles
roster that won Super Bowl 52, and close to half those players and all but one coach are likely to be gone this offseason. Feels like decades ago for so many reasons.
#FlyEaglesFly
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Who knew throwing to the TE between the hashes was a possible answer to this Tampa Bay blitz.
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#Eagles
have as manageable a path as any 5 seed could ever hope for to get back to the NFC Championship Game. Step 1: pleasantly surprise us all by showing up tomorrow night. I’m not going to say please.
#FlyEaglesFly
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Most fun AFC scenario: Pittsburgh loses Saturday & Jacksonville loses early Sunday. Because then it all comes down to
#DENvsLV
at 4:25pm.
DEN win -> Pittsburgh in, Jacksonville out.
LV win -> Jacksonville in, Pittsburgh out.
(Teams actually playing will not care one bit!)
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Every Super Bowl loser says they'll be back next year, and the
#Eagles
will certainly try.
It's probably best to not think about how only 1 of the last 29 Super Bowl losers has gotten back to the game the next year, and only 1 of the last 50 has won it.
#FlyEaglesFly
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Seriously,
@TheAthletic
, make this clown buy his own tickets to cheer on his team.
A little Steve Young in that Brock Purdy run.
By a little, I mean a lot
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BwF Phoenix
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#Eagles
implications for DET
@DAL
tonight:
DET loss -> Eagles regain control of 2 seed
DAL loss -> Eagles can clinch NFC East w/win over ARI
DET/DAL *tie* -> *both of the above!* 👀
#Eagles
Week 17 rooting guide
It's easy: root for the home teams!
Sat 8pm
DET @ DAL* (a tie would be even better)
Sun 1pm
SF @ WAS*
LAR @ NYG*
Sun 4pm
PIT @ SEA* (only if LAR won already)
Sun 8pm
GB @ MIN* (only if LAR+SEA both won already)
(explanation of why in thread)
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I don't think you understood me the first time. STOP FUCKING PUNTING IT ON 4TH & 2!!!!!
If the plan for 4th & 2 is to punt, then just sneak it twice when it's 3rd & 2 next time.
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As
#NFLFreeAgency
puts 2022 into clearer focus, reminder of how potentially friendly the
#Eagles
schedule could be:
0 games vs teams that won a playoff game last year
1 game vs an elite QB
7 games vs teams with a new HC
10 games vs teams 20th or worse in 2021 DVOA
#FlyEaglesFly
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