Danny Le
@dannyle1022
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Born to chart TSLA and comb hair, and I'm out of hair. No paid services, but I have a Vietnamese-English translation agency. Hit me up. Reasonable & fast.
Texas
Joined August 2021
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Don't really want to delve in the past but people are either stupid or ignorant. I was about the only one calling the top at 250-270 and called for a steep drop, which happened like clockwork but idiots keep popping up like cockroaches everyday telling me I've been wrong.
What
Intrawave levels are a bit less reliable, but in both prior down legs, the stock put in 2 lower low at the 0.5 and 0.382 fib level, before a big bounce and then the final leg down. The 0.5 and 0.382 levels right now are 220 and 209. $TSLA
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$TSLA I don't like to speculate so very seldom will I post non-TA stuff.
I think an ABCDE triangle is the best pattern for this correction that started in Nov 2021. The downward sloping resistance represents temporarily declining auto volume and margin. The upward sloping
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$TSLA false breakout on the weekly here. I don't think it's too much to expect a deeper retest at 170s. This is the log chart.
Why log chart? Because when you're dealing with a correction that started out -80%, then bounced 200%, you should consider maybe the normal scale chart
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I'm a huge $TSLA bull. I've only bought, never sold, but my interactions with some other bulls on X the past month has made me kinda question my decision to be in this stock.
Back in the day, I got in TSLA partly because the TSLAQ people were straight up delusional. So I simply
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Since all of my money has been in $TSLA shares since 2019, Im very selective at adding shares. You should keep this in mind, along with the knowledge that Im mainly looking for local tops to add hedges. If you want to buy 230, 240, 250, just buy. You are gonna be fine in the long
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Back in the day I used to follow every ER and do a write up for every single one of them $TSLA. I stopped a while ago as it seemed a waste of time. The chart's already telling me where it'll go after ER and where it'll go in 10 years. That's good enough.
The stock is almost
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$TSLA it's pretty dangerous to try and predict dead cat movements, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 230s-242 hit before turning down to 170s in November.
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This is the only real breakout. We are in what is called a rising wedge.
Rising wedges are considered bearish by almost everyone on almost any stock, except $TSLA.
For me to be wrong, it just needs to do this and make it not a rising wedge anymore. Not just a breakout, but also
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When I look at the January - July 2023 run in $TSLA, my default count is an ABC. This, IMO, was confirmed by the April 2024 low breaking the June 2023 low (1st ss).
This means that while 102 was probably the bottom, it was not the end of the multi-year correction in TSLA. If it
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My job here is done.
Wheres my "nobody gonna sell during the biggest reveal in history" gang at?
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I can post tech chart after tech chart after tech chart and most of them are xtremely bearish, with the exception of $TSLA. While most others look like they are done with their bull run, TSLA is near the end of consolidation.
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$TSLA many people seem to think I'm one of those newbies who's just found the stock or I'm one of those care bears who shorted it too early. All wrong. The only money I've lost up until this point is miniscule premium on a few put spreads. On the other hand, all of my shares have
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$TSLA across the board, call IVs held firm today, nearly unchanged from 7/1 before P&D. This sets the stage for an aggressive snapback. I wouldn't short the stock here. Downside is limited.
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I'm already all in on $TSLA
Annualized return since 2019 ~60%
Yearly return almost mirrors that of TSLA
I'm out of money to buy. Nothing to gain from wishing it to drop.
So when I say it will drop, at least I'm honest.
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$TSLA this can be exactly what we need to get to 250. People hedging unnecessarily and when those hedges unwind we rip.
Still within the uptrend channel while retesting the downtrend channel.
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$TSLA when you're bullish enough, you'll see breakouts everywhere.
Hint: dead cats have their own structure which can often extend outside of the previous downtrend, which doesn't make them any less dead.
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$TSLA this is a pivotal point in time.
It broke down from the channel.
It tested the support, now resistance this morning and got rejected, at least initially.
You most likely don't understand the implication. If this is a bull run, then we can see 260 by end of next week, as
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About to go into an interview for an awesome job. If I get it, wont be able to post much on X anymore. Wish me luck!
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At 168, I gave an absolute bottom target at 138 and said 265 after the bounce.
Stock bottomed at 138.8.
Were whales buying then? How did I see 265? Just conviction. Same conviction now says 170s. $TSLA
I make big calls in advance and Im not God so Ill be wrong at times. But
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$TSLA once again, not every triangle looking thing is a bullish pennant.
Pennants can be very reliable, if you know the correct way to identify one. This one has some red flags.
Bullish pennant is a corrective pattern, which means the down legs have to be corrective in nature.
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5 Last time $TSLA broke out of a multiyear trendline, this happened. 5 retests over 21 months before rocketing. Hold your horses and curb your enthusiasm is all I'm asking.
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seems everyone on X is full on bullish TSLA right now.
I saw this coming almost 2 months ago. I knew I would end up in this spot, against the world again. Hey, if Im wrong, theres no better way to be. $TSLA
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$TSLA If we have a huge earning beat, hypothetically it can spike again and it will spike big, because here you see that the potential 2nd wave here measured $31
The 3rd wave has not extended, meaning its intrawave pullbacks are not remotely comparable to the 2nd wave. It just
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$TSLA the road to 170s should be very similar to 415 to 102 and 299 to 139. Lots of chops.
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Once the dust has settled, I feel good about yesterday actions.
I still think $TSLA is going to 170s, but market reaction in it, to 50 bps cut, was far better than I thought. It increases my confidence in my read that, although $SPY is about to go back to the Dark Ages, TSLA
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Here's me telling folks to buy at the bottom on August 5th amid peak panic. So when you say "I hope you're wrong", think about the implication: I've been right in:
Predicting 140 low
Predicting 250s after 140
Predicting 170s after 250s
But now just because you don't like the
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$TSLA last year we pumped $140 between May and July based on nothing but a few NACS adoption news. Then we crashed
This year, almost deja vu but this time we're high on FSD.
People don't learn. It always takes at least 1 disaster for people to start listening and by the time
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I look and everywhere I see red flags. Why am I still all in on $TSLA? This must be a mental illness.
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Now if you turn on the log chart, this is what a real pennant should look like. $TSLA
On the weekly, we had 1 false breakout last week and another one in the work this week. Why is price so afraid of staying above the yellow line? Coincidence?
We just need another "touch" of the
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$TSLA the fractal is playing out nicely. the 1st leg of the 1st leg down is having a date with the 0.382 level @ 207, just like it did last year. 205-207 should contain selling.
Funny how as soon as market reversed, the people previously pumping to $300 and new ATH this year
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Even though I say provocative shit day after day, I don't think I've lost any "followers" yet. Thanks guys.
I don't think of you as "followers" since I don't consider myself any "thought leader." Just appreciate you peeps tuning in to my train of thoughts. There will be days
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One thing Ive noticed is that it is easier, much easier, to be a permabull in $TSLA and sound smart. After all, its TSLA, a generational company. Doesnt matter if you are wrong and its -20% here and there, eventually its going to the moon. Everything seems like a blip in the end.
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$TSLA Tomorrow I'll close my March -300Cs. Up 50% in 2 weeks is good for now. Or at least I'll roll them up to something like -350Cs.
If the fractal holds, the initial bounce back after the 1st of 1st leg down can be quite aggressive, targeting high 250s, assuming it bottoms
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$TSLA still too much dip buying today. This won't end until X is flooded with "fuck this false breakout. I'm out."
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Many have asked me this question: "if you are so certain that $TSLA will go down, why dont you sell and buy lower?", some more rude than others but the essence is the same.
The answer is very simple: I am very long biased on the stock long term, to the point where I get
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Not gonna lie, $TSLA is nearly impossible to count with certainty right now, so I have to use SPY as a proxy.
In SPY we've clearly seen 2 legs down.
Similar to TSLA, SPY has been rejected hard by the gap.
What we need to see is whether SPY will break 510 first, thereby
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Who gave you not 1, not 2, but 3 moves ahead? $TSLA
$TSLA it's pretty dangerous to try and predict dead cat movements, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 230s-242 hit before turning down to 170s in November.
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Something you frequently see in $TSLA is it often pretty resilient on macro red days but then underperforms on macro recovery days.
This is not "unfortunate." There's no such thing.
Considering it is consistently one of the most volatile stocks in the market, if not THE stock,
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$TSLA algos and dip buyers are buying, but call holders are slowly bleeding their bags out, which is why its not going anywhere. Getting caught between the currents. Depends on which side finishes first, the otherside will prevail, but upside outweighs downside at 216.5 imo.
If
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$TSLA a nice impulse on the lower timeframe so I think we go up after ER to ~267 then drop.
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This is my default scenario. No change to the final destination. AT ALL. Unless we start seeing 2 5th waves unfolding here in the next few weeks. $TSLA
Just like people doubting me at 180 whether we'll see 250s and then doubting me again at 260s whether we'll see 170s, people
Now if you turn on the log chart, this is what a real pennant should look like. $TSLA
On the weekly, we had 1 false breakout last week and another one in the work this week. Why is price so afraid of staying above the yellow line? Coincidence?
We just need another "touch" of the
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I'm sure there are a number of $TSLA bears celebrating today after having called 20 of the last 4 crashes in TSLA. Permabulls will have you believe that people like me are bears, too, just like they called me a fake bull for calling the top. Watch and learn.
I know if your
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Once again, my track record for calling the highs and lows BEFORE the move even begins.
Once again, long term I'm very bullish on $TSLA, which is why I'm all in on shares, since 2019. So if you're a bull and trolling me, you're emotional you just don't realize you're emotional.
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$TSLA many are saying that 220 will be the end of the drop. That's going to be the trendline retest and last chance to buy.
In EWT term, a 4th wave pullback is a profit taking wave and it cannot go below the 0.5 mark of the 3rd wave. If $TSLA dip below 219.25, it's done for.
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$TSLA very well telegraphed pressure release, brought to you by the channel support.
The only question is whether 215 was the bottom or is it going to be 212, 213 in RTH. I don't have a strong feeling and frankly it's not a big deal. As long as we get our 240s - 250s in the end
$TSLA channel contained selling, just like it did last year. But this channel, too, shall break in time.
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I don't make the rule. I really want $TSLA to go up to 250 to exit my dip buys but there's a group of people who are deliberately challenging the gods by insulting me.
Please stop being rude to me. My hands are tied here.
Back in the day I used to follow every ER and do a write up for every single one of them $TSLA. I stopped a while ago as it seemed a waste of time. The chart's already telling me where it'll go after ER and where it'll go in 10 years. That's good enough.
The stock is almost
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$TSLA that's it. It's been a lot more aggressive than I imagined but such is the nature of short squeezes. I'm going to sell some 270CC exp March 2025 on Friday on 30% of my shares.
I'm going to admit that there's no observable exhaustion on the chart yet, but wave wise I think
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$TSLA I have 2 counts. Unclear whether 5th is complete
Gap in TSLA, SPY, QQQ, etc... you name it is hella strong. I would not be in long margin right now until 208 is reclaimed.
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Still a dead cat. Still a hill I'm willing to die on. $TSLA
@dannyle1022
hey Danny, any updates on $TSLA, man? Just trying to understand what you're making of this pump
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Fractal:
The 1st leg of this correction ran from 415 to 102, the 0.236 retracement of the June 2019 - Oct 2021 run
The 2nd leg ran from 299 to 138.8, the 0.236 retracement of the Jan 2023 - June 2023 run
Therefore, I expect the 3rd and final leg of this pennant to run from 271.5
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$TSLA you wanna talk about hype and AI narrative change? How about overhang?
Remember the Twitter overhang? Or the Elon's compensation overhang?
Last night Trump didn't come out and say I'm gonna get rid of EV credit, but his speech planted a seed in people's mind. Now they're
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$TSLA yellow base complete at 210 in PM session.
Now profit taking before Blue.
If $TSLA trades above 234 first then I'm wrong and this leg is done.
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Left and right I see people be like " $TSLA has on hand a record $30B of cash"
Yes, that is the amount of cash it has on hand, added up from all previous earnings. Almost as if 1+1 = 2.
Why are people acting surprised, as if this money just fell on Elon's lap? Dont they teach
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its so crazy the mental gymnastics people can perform to turn every piece of news into bullishness. $TSLA
Price hikes are uber bullish because cars must be flying off the lot
Price cuts are also uber bullish because only Tesla can afford to cut price. Legacy OEMs are done!
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$NVDA chart is giving me the chill. This looks like $TSLA back in November 2021.
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The other day, someone childish and ignorant said I was posting "hundred of charts" just so I'd end up being right no matter what.
Let's make something clear: I can just show you my next price target and my only read, leading you through a narrow corridor and be done with it.
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I think $SPY can still go sub $500 once more. $TSLA to go sub $180 once more. But this (180-215) is the accumulation zone, not sell-and-buy-lower zone. I still have all dip buys from 217 to low 180s. If 160s - 170s doesn't hold, ie I'm wrong, we can see low 100s but that's the
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$TSLA Yes, a symmetrical triangle after a huge bull run is a bullish consolidation and ideally should resolve to the upside.
That's what I've been saying since last year, but...
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$TSLA I'm an accountant / financial analyst by trade, but I fully believed, if properly groomed I could have made a very good police detective.
I saw this day a while ago. I saw how whales would be successful in orchestrating a "breakout" to suck people in. Suddenly we will
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$TSLA hOw To TrAdE tHiS bUlLiSh PeNaNt BrEaKoUt - everyone and their mom, 2024
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It's funny how we went from " $TSLA profit margin is far higher than anyone else making cars" to "margins don't matter as long as it gains market share."
I wonder how long before we get to "market share doesn't matter since..."
Gross margin has to bottom for new bull market to
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$TSLA My thinking is:
The sky is clear for call sellers.
We're back to the drawing board. Worse, I don't think we're there yet. We're still at Walmart buying the board and the pen.
This morning, IVs were high across the board, not just puts. Even at 185, leap call prices were
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$TSLA isn't over till the fat lady sings. In 2022 and 2023, the initial bounce got up to at least the 0.786 retracement level.
It can get up to ~250 by 10/10 and still be a dead cat (inside the rising wedge).
My short calls & put spread combo opened yesterday is in profit now.
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There are typically 2 ways to set a target for the Cycle degree 5th wave in $TSLA.
The 1st way is 5th wave = 1st wave in term of change.
The 1st wave gained in total 2500%. From 180, we can project the 5th wave in $TSLA to end around $4,680.
The Cycle degree 4th wave in $TSLA ran from November 2021 and is projected to end late 2024. This 4th wave is taking the form of a triangle. The end of this triangle is projected to be in the area of the 4th sub-wave of the Cycle degree 3rd wave. This area is around 180.
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$NVDA extended 5th wave of an extended 5th wave.
Very high prob NVDA will go to 82-78 before any chance at new ATH.
If the bounce from 82-78 is a dead cat, can see 38-40 but that's for later.
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Let me give you a TL;DR of the earnings
1. $TSLA ran a 0.99% APR promotion and sold a bunch of extra cars
2. People got excited oooh Im telling ya this earning is gonna be good
3. People assumed that 0.99% APR loans grew on 0.99% APR trees in 0.99% APR Land
4. In fact, a 0.99%
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My main strategy for playing $TSLA without much cash (I'm nearly 100% all in on shares. Have been since 2019):
It depends on the cycle and the wave count. It's different depending on timing. Sometimes it's very clear (late June where the only question was how fast we're going up
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$TSLA I see 2 bases here. Blue base probably gonna be closed out in the high 220s. Yellow base low 220s then we bounce.
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Entered some November 15th ratio put spreads:
Buy 5x 175P
Sell 6x 170P
Enter at your own risk
If stock remains above 175, we're breaking even.
If stock goes between 175 and 145, we're in profit
If stock goes below 145, we lose. $TSLA
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$TSLA counting impulses is quite cathartic. It's beautiful, almost poetic even.
It reflects the philosophy of karma and causation in nature. For every action, there's a proportional reaction.
Once you've identified something as an impulse, you know that it's going to have 3
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The vast majority of 4th wave lands between 0.236 and 0.381 retracement of the 3rd wave. This "4th wave" has gone inside the 0.618 - 0.786 zone. $TSLA
Now watch some analysts switching from a 4th wave read to an extended 3rd wave. (2nd ss)
Not gonna happen. As unlikely as an
$TSLA so when you see someone on X says "we've completed wave 4 and ready to go up for wave 5", this is what's in store if what they say is true
This WILL NOT happen. The "4th wave" has retraced too deeply.
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$TSLA be mindful of what I meant by "the bottom is in." I'm talking about the bottom of the blue oval. If the fractal plays out again, and I suspect it will, there will be 2 more bottoms in the coming months. This is a swingable bottom only.
$TSLA I don't feel very strongly about the red and blue ovals being 2 bases within the impulse that we developed after earnings. Been looking at them all day, and they seem to be too far outside the structure.
Wouldn't be surprised if they were part of a complex consolidation.
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This is the reason why I will sell 270CCs on 30% of my position here as my primary count indicates that the end of wave D is near and wave E is about to take the stage, bringing us back to the 170s. $TSLA
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$TSLA this doesn't look good. Hopefully it's just an ugly diagonal and we get some decent bounce into the high 250s if anyone wanna reposition for the downside.
If it's a bear nest like on the 2nd ss, can get very nasty very quickly. So far we may have seen 3 bases each of which
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We're here now. Low so far 214.34. $TSLA Let's see if it holds.
on the RTH chart, price is also contained within an expanded downward channel. The difference is, since the RTH low is 215 instead of 210, the 0.5 mark is up at 235.4, which the stock hasn't touched yet.
So my thinking is, unless 235.4 is taken out decisively, we can go down to
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I make calls and model the chart at least 6 months in advance and I stick to it unless theres something on the chart that makes me question the plan. As of this moment I dont see anything of sort.
If Im wrong then Im wrong but do keep in mind my calls are the result of hundred
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$TSLA call IV is super low right now. Everyone been selling calls. Time for a spike to clean house.
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Fast forward 365 days and we're having the same disastrous cocktail again:
1. Bag holders created during a parabolic run
2. Earning disappointed
3. 2 long months of nothing ahead
Therefore, I don't think 210 was the end of this drop. There will be more blood after a bounce
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$TSLA What if I'm wrong? If I am wrong and the run from 139 is the beginning of a new bull run, then it will come in the form of a 5 wave impulse.
In this hypothetical impulse, wave 1 ran from 139 to 199. A good limit for wave 5 is the 4.618x extension at 415, the old ATH.
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I was literally telling people to buy the dip $1.5 from the bottom but this guy acted like I was trying to scare people out of their money.
I can deal with arrogant pricks and even some assholes, but dishonesty I can't, cuz good faith doesn't mean crap to these people.
$TSLA algos and dip buyers are buying, but call holders are slowly bleeding their bags out, which is why its not going anywhere. Getting caught between the currents. Depends on which side finishes first, the otherside will prevail, but upside outweighs downside at 216.5 imo.
If
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Hope everyone who wanted to buy scooped up some shares in the low 180s.
The bulk of my 170s thesis in term of levels and timing (pinned) is based on the fractal that played out in 2022 and 2023. This time its different. Specifically, its a lot more aggressive than the 2
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$TSLA we got our work mostly cut out for us already. As we know where the base (red) and the drop (yellow) are.
It looks like the exhaustion (green) finally began today.
I previously speculated that the exhaustion would stop between 215 and 210, but it can certainly go deeper.
$TSLA to recap:
We have 2 red ovals here, representing 2 legs of this drop.
The first oval is an impulse, as we can clearly define the base, the drop, and the exhaustion.
Therefore, we expected there would be a 2nd leg, which was the 2nd red oval.
Same as the first leg, the
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$TSLA I don't feel very strongly about the red and blue ovals being 2 bases within the impulse that we developed after earnings. Been looking at them all day, and they seem to be too far outside the structure.
Wouldn't be surprised if they were part of a complex consolidation.
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Also
@smdcapital88
show us your losses so your followers know you didn't just pump and dump on them.
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$TSLA in AH and PM sessions, the yellow 5th base formed that extended 1.618x of the 4th wave. Stock often forms bottoms outside of RTH to catch people off guard. The worst part of the drop is over, but it's not totally done yet.
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$TSLA In the 2 prior big move down, the 1st legs accounted for a bit over 0.618x of the entire move. Therefore, if we observe where the big first leg of this move (today ain't it) terminates at, that can give us a pretty good idea of the final target. I think 170s-180s.
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In the last month or so, I think I have snarked at a few people. My apologies as I'm sure some didn't mean any offense. But, it's just not sustainable for me to repeatedly answer the same questions. I know I posted quite a lot but trust me, if you wonder something, most likely
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