Jonas Dahlqvist
@dahlqvistjonas
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Partner and Portfolio manager at Proxy Partners. In the market since 1997. You find my thoughts about macro and markets @ https://t.co/Jyq3uMtwgK
Stockholm, Sverige
Joined April 2012
Us cpi på onsdag viktig, men det faktum är inflations förväntningarna stiger bland amerikaner är sannolikt viktigare för Fed. Sen ska man komma ihåg att det är företag som höjer priserna, inte konsumenten, och företagen vill inte heller tappa volym. Bruttovinst är ALLT
Yardeni: "Exacerbating Friday's stock and bond market selloffs was news that the one-year expected inflation rate jumped to 4.3% this month from 3.3% in January, according to the University of Michigan's latest consumer survey (chart). The interviews for the survey concluded on February 4, just days after the Trump administration announced 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which were quickly delayed by 30 days...The jump in expected inflation reduces the likelihood that the #Fed will be cutting the federal funds rate again anytime soon. For now, we remain in the none-and-done camp in 2025 regarding Fed rate cuts." #FOMC
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@CASH_SEK @bravosresearch True, but normally chinese companies/government prioritize market share, entry of barriers, competitiveness, full employment (preventing social unrest), and not so much profit/shareholder value.
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@bravosresearch Well, back in 2016-2020 some prices didnt go up at all through those channels, they didnt change because tarffs were absorbed by 1, exchange rate and 2, gross margins of exporting companies, ie they cut selling prices, becuase they prioritized volumes/market share/competiveness
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Bakom senaste månadernas styrka döljer sig en tilltagande svaghet i service sektorn…
Jan #NFP payrolls come in under above exps’ at +143k vs 175k exp’d, but Dec was rev’d up by +51k to 307k and Nov +49k leaving the 3-mth avg at 237k. Gains again this month led by services with 111k led again by health care/social assistance (+66k (+226 last 3 mths)). Goods though no net jobs added (just +6k last 3 mths). Gov’t added +32k (+83k last 3 mths). BLS said the wildfires in Los Angeles, as well as severe winter weather in other parts of the country, had “no discernible effect” on employment in January.
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@MikaelSarwe Ohh I thought consensus was SA. Thanks!!! Wages are still running hot, so I feel with companies desire to hike prices. I just thought weak demand prevented them from doing so!
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@MikaelSarwe I dont understand how consensus could expect 2,1% yoy, because that would imply a monthly change of -0,2%. When a lot of companies automatically hike prices in january. 🤷♂️
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@j_olavi På månadsbasis var kpif ex energi 0,2%. svenska företag har INTE börjat tokhöja priserna. Skulle dom höja lika mycket 12m i rad så landar vi på 2,4%YoY. Rätt inline med målet. intressant är det faktum att det inte skapas några jobb längre samtidigt som lönetakten är hög.
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@AndreasSteno Agree. We have been under consuming goods for some time so it makes sense. Qs is if core inflation can stay around 0,15-0,25% MoM on average or it will pick up again. Goods consuming cycle normally requires cheap lending, ie lower rates, unlike services which you pay w salary
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Vi får väl se hur oberoende dom är när ECB står på 1,5% senare i år
Erik Thedéen bedömer nu att #Riksbanken sänkt tillräckligt med en styrränta på 2,25%. Det är alltså högre än Riksbanken som mest HÖJDE styrräntan till på 2010-talet, efter finanskrisen (2,00%). Onekligen nya tider nu.
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Företag är mindre sugna på att anställa om efterfrågan svalnar. Då är det också svårare att höja priser, och pressen att höja löner avtar. Det går långsamt men pilarna pekar inte alls åt rätt håll. Kan Trumps politik vända denna oljetanker?
🇺🇸 US JOLT JOB OPENINGS ACTUAL 7.6M PREVIOUS 8.098M This is much lower than expected. I think the Fed will have to consider rate cuts real soon. #FOMC #JOLT
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Hur länge kan vi lita på att NFP jobben sprutar på som vanligt?
Dec #JOLTS job openings (SA) drop -556k, the most since Oct ‘23, to 7.60mn (after +58k rev to Nov to 8.156mn (the most since May)) well below exp’s for 8.0mn and the 2nd least since Jan '21, perhaps putting the series back on the “clear overall decline since peaking Mar ‘22 at 12.2mb,” although remaining above the Sept low of 7.4mn. The decline was led by professional/biz services, which more than reversed the prior mth’s +179k falling -225k (still +125k since Sept), health care/social assistance -180k, finance/insurance -136k (after +130k in Nov), and construction -55k. Largest increases were in arts/entertainment +65k and transp/warehousing +38k. Ratio of openings to employment dropped four tenths to 4.5%, while the ratio of openings to unemployed workers remained at 1.1 rounded for a 6th mth (the least since 2018). At its peak it was 2 to 1.
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@casperj33081634 @AndreasSteno Onshoring is probably a word he loves even more, but it takes time
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Lönerna ligger kvar på samma nivå, i årstakt 3,8% vilket resulterar i core pce pä strax under 3%. Förstår att Fed inte är nöjd med trenden under höst/vinter!
🇺🇸Employment Cost Index: No labor market #inflation pressure 📊ECI +0.9% q/q in Q4 ✅Wage & salaries +0.9% ✅Benefits +0.8% 💰Wages & salaries ✅Private +0.9% q/q ✅ State & local +1.0% q/q 📉Wage inflation: low since early '21 ⤵️ECI 3.8% y/y (-0.1pt) ⤵️Private wages: 3.7%
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Lägg till att Service PMI börjat mjukna, och det finns en del som pekar på sämre jobbsiffror i vår!
Consumer Confidence Index’s labor differential (jobs hard to get minus easy to get) declined in January, aligning with an upward drift in the unemployment rate (orange). This suggests a softening labor market. Watch if this trend persists, signaling potential labor weakness ahead.
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@BorsBuddy Tar inflations takten (core pce) senaste 3 månaderna och räknar upp den i årstakt är vi snarare närmre 2%, och då är det ju rätt tveksamt till att ligga på 4,25% styrränta. Man höjde från 0,25 till 5,25 och det gav lite neg påverkan. Att sänka med 100 ger noll
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