@TheStalwart Did you take the Celtics and the spread?

@DannyDayan5 Too bad, will miss one of my favorite follows.

@mikeharrisNY Reminded of what a trader friend once told me, to illustrate the difference between paper trading and the actual thing: "So you're practicing your aim by firing at a bunch of champaign glasses lined up on a wall, and you're doing well. Now imagine the glasses start firing back."

Relativity, via Karen-Karniol Tambour / Bridgewater.

@MarioNawfal Why/how would a budget be created before Musk is done with his work to establish a baseline? Doesn’t make sense.

@AahanPrometheus @BobEUnlimited Reminded of the old accounting adage, that cash is fact while earnings are opinion... Similarly, price is fact... valuation? Anyway, thanks for humoring.

@AahanPrometheus @BobEUnlimited Well, in that case, I stand corrected.

@AahanPrometheus @BobEUnlimited Interesting. Thanks. What about tomorrow?

An issue with all these methodologies is that they implicitly incorporate a perpetuity based forecast. This would be fine in say, the 70s, 80s, or even more recent times when we rightly or wrongly had reason to believe that a given business would continue to be that business, only larger as the economy grows. But now we have the experience of businesses being entirely transformed in the course of years, let alone decades, let alone perpetuity. So if the question is no longer how big or how small over an extended period, but actually what, then any perpetuity assumption is by definition broken... or more obviously broken than in the past... recognizing that there is no choice in the matter, if "valuation" is the objective.

@BickerinBrattle Agreed, which is why I was posing the original questions, to try to distill the idea down to its core and without bias... Because I agree that is a major risk now, but I don't think it's well understood.

@BickerinBrattle Interesting, and don't mean to pester, but based on that definition and the current market environment, there is no constitutional crisis, or at least none anticipated?

You're optimistic, with a broken thumb at #1, injury prone and not yet playing at #2, a PF at #3, and ? at #4. (Btw, with OG also injury prone at PF, we could probably use all the bigs we can find.) But I hope you're right, and anyway it doesn't matter so much deep into the bench.

Picked up some new followers yesterday because of a comment in an Econ conversation. Thank you, and a word of caution: Not here to sell anything, only to learn. So far so good, and necessary even (or especially) after a few decades in the biz. Lessons: 1/ While some scoff at the notion of "things are different this time" I respectfully disagree. Maybe when seen from outer space, but on the ground it's always different. 2/ All graphs and data notwithstanding, markets are too dynamic, too intertwined, too vast to quantify decisively, and in the last analysis driven by sentiment. This too is not quantifiable because much more complex than bull/bear indicators, and it is fickle and, what's more, contagious. 3/ For these reasons, curate a follow list thoughtfully, like an asset portfolio, and always with an eye on adjustments.

@dampedspring I agree, wasn’t referring to the DOE drama… just think educational standards as well as subject matter can far better prepare the workforce to be productive. But that’s a whole can of worms, I realize.

Thanks Andy. I believe the answer lies in productivity growth outweighing the reversal of the fiscal stimulus. Maybe DOGE and AI are attempts at that. Also will be interesting to see what if anything gets done in education for the longer term. Big opportunity for improvement imo, with big potential rewards.

@mikeharrisNY @BenBrey * "thinks"

@ERudy414 @dampedspring No matter how it's explained, I think ultimately it's also a statement about the jobs economy. No?