thanks
@joachim_voth
! incredibly excited to join
@UPFBarcelona
as an AP, after a postdoc at
@HarvardEcon
! no words can express how grateful I am for all the help and support from my advisors - especially
@jakub_steiner
- and friends during this journey!
Congrats to Chiara Aina, who is graduating from UZH this year and who will join UPF as a tenure-track AP in 2024, after spending a post-doc year at Harvard.
#EconTwitter
Hi
#EconTwitter
! I am on the
#EconJobMarket
this year with a paper titled “Tailored Stories.” But what is a tailored story?
Here is a perfect example:
1/
Thank you so much
@jenniferdoleac
! Amazed to see my JMP in this thread of great female economists! Perhaps unsurprisingly, narratives can be used to change beliefs...but to what extent can this work? The answer is surprisingly a lot!
🧩New paper out: "Contingent Belief Updating" w/
@AndreaAmelio
@KatharinaBrutt
! We study how contingent thinking – that is, reasoning through all possible contingencies without knowing which is realized – affects belief updating. What does contingent belief updating mean? 1/
@chiaraina
opens
@nberpubs
Summer Institute Political Economy with a great talk.
Simon will present our work on bargaining power tomorrow morning at 9am eastern time. You can tune in on the youtube channel of the NBER.
dear
@united
, today was supposed to be a very special day for me. I would be so excited I just moved to the US for a postdoc... but my luggage was lost! everything I have is in that luggage - it has been one day and you still have no idea where it is! please do something
⚡2024 Annual Meeting of the European Association of Young Economists ⚡
spread the word and submit your wonderful papers (or extended abstracts) by November 17!
Paris
@PSEinfo
May 23-25 | more info:
#EconTwitter
🚨Call for Papers!🚨
Exciting news! The
@EAYEconomists
Annual Meeting 2024 is coming to Paris this year!
📝 Submit by Nov 17, 2023, at
👉
Join us
@PSEinfo
on May 23-25, 2024.
More at
Spread the word!🌐
#EAYEAM2024
#EconTwitter
Please join our online mini-workshop
@ResearchTI
on "narratives in economics" this Thursday April 21. In three 30 minute talks, we will explore new perspectives on this topic with Michael Roos,
@chiaraina
and Vanessa Valero.
Registration is free:
On Wednesday, May 31st, CSEF will host Chiara Aina
@chiaraina
(University of Zurich), who will present her paper titled 'Tailored Stories'.
#econtwitter
At
@econ_empresaUPF
, we have two openings for assistant professors in economics this year! Apply if interested, and let me know if you have any questions!
Deadline to apply is Nov 20th.
Don’t be scared because it’s a theory paper.
@chiaraina
will take your hand and guide you through the math of the paper with clear intuitions. Check it out!
Truly grateful for these amazing weeks at
@CMU_DietrichHSS
!
I had the chance to meet great people, discuss about interesting topics, and present my work at
@CBDR_CMU
My JMP studies to what extent beliefs can be manipulated across the possible facts that a boundedly rational agent needs to interpret. I provide a full characterization of the constraint that the persuader faces by strategically providing interpretations of facts.
5/
Sometimes we might hold inconsistent interpretations.
Another example: a student might think “if it is a good grade, I am smart; if it is a bad grade, it must be bad luck.” Ever heard this?
2/
Happy to share that I have been awarded the 2022 Manuel Abdala grant to study the effect of fake news and conspiracy theories on polarization during this year's Brazilian elections! 🗳🇧🇷
Looking forward to start this new project with my friend
@chiaraina
!
But then, the new fact, together with our previous knowledge, drives the interpretation we use to form beliefs. As a result, we pick different stories to make sense of different facts without realizing this inconsistency!
4/
Do financial incentives crowd out "good" behavior? Our next job market candidate, Florian Schneider, asks this question in the context of COVID vaccinations -- good for the people to get vaxed, but also good for others (fewer ICU visits, slight reduction in transmissibility)
check out
@IlMenga
! on top of doing brilliant research on bargaining power and markups, he's just the most amazing friend and colleague to have around!
Next up is Paolo Mengano (). Labor's share of income has fallen in most developed countries in the last 30 years - in glaring contrast to standard assumptions in our models. Paolo combines IO and macro techniques to measure worker bargaining power
Though beneficial for a persuader, exposure to conflicting ways of interpreting reality could lead to inevitable polarization regardless of what happens. I also discuss other important applications, such as conflict of interest in finance, lobbying, and self-persuasion.
7/
Typically we think of persuasion as manipulating the information observed by the agent. I show that the scope of persuasion is large even if the persuader cannot control, or does not even know, the available information the agent uses to make a choice.
6/
On a last note: I am deeply grateful to everyone who encouraged and supported me, with a special thanks to
@jakub_steiner
, Nick Netzer, Josh Schwartzstein, and Roberto Weber
a big shout out to
@AndreaAmelio
!
check out his JMP on the interaction of social learning and behavioral biases! not only he is a great researcher, but it is so much fun to work with!
📢I am thrilled to share my
#JMP
in Behavioral Economics! 🔎
In my
#JMP
, I show that social learning often does not eliminate, and may, in fact, exacerbate errors stemming from behavioral biases.
🔗
Read 👇 for a🧵
#EconTwitter
#EconJobMarket
Today
@lauraina_
successfully defended her PhD thesis "A Deep Learning Perspective on Linguistic Ambiguity". She is the first AMORE student defending the PhD thesis and she did a great job! Congratulations 🎉
@TraduccioUPF
@colt_upf
What could be going on here? When exposed to different ways of interpreting a fact, we might select the one that fits best with what we already think - e.g., I am a great politician or student.
3/
Using an experiment, we decompose the effect of contingent thinking on belief updating into two components: (1) hypothetical thinking (updating on a piece of not-yet-observed information) & (2) contrast reasoning (comparing multiple contingencies during the updating process). 5/
Our results show that contingent thinking increases deviations from Bayesian updating, both in terms of absolute distance and more underinference. However, this effect can be attributed to hypothetical thinking rather than contrast reasoning. 6/
Not only hypothetical thinking leads to less accurate beliefs, but it also worsens how consistent the reported beliefs are within tasks and across contingencies. Contrast reasoning offsets the impact of hypothetical thinking depending on the characteristics of the information. 7/
To whoever needs to read this: When you realize your goals are beyond what you can handle, it's okay to take a step back and slow the pace. And if you need to put your plans fully on hold to recover, be patient and try not to put too much pressure on yourself. ❤️ 6/6
While, according to the Bayesian benchmark, the revision of beliefs should not depend on whether individuals engage with additional data contingently and most of the experts we surveyed expected no difference between these conditions, this study shows that it does. 4/
We distinguish this from what we call conditional belief updating: the doctor observes the test result and then assesses the updated beliefs only for that realized and relevant outcome. Do we process the same information in the same manner in these circumstances? 3/