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NEW: Change Research 2022 Accuracy Report 🎯
Last year, CR conducted 550+ polls and surveyed over 1 MILLION people.
As part of our commitment to transparency and constant innovation, we conducted an analysis into our polling accuracy in 2022.
Thread🧵⬇️
4
12
24
In Texas (n=1211), Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz are dead even: O'Rourke is at 49%, Cruz is at 49%, and Libertarian Neil Dikeman is at 1%. We've polled a lot in Texas the past few months, and this marks a notable shift towards Beto.
150
1K
3K
Virginia Democratic Primary Poll March 1-2 (n=510):
Biden 45%
Sanders 25%
Warren 13%
Bloomberg 10%
Klobuchar 4%*
* Poll conducted mostly before Klobuchar dropped out.
40
442
2K
IA-04 (n=631)
J.D. Scholten
@Scholten4Iowa
(D) 44
Steve King (R) 45
Movement: 26 points to D (was Trump+27)
Trump won IA-04 by 27 points in 2016; King won by 23 points.
Trump opinion is divided (51% fav, 46% unfav); opinion toward King is quite negative (38% fav, 48% unfav).
97
512
1K
California Democratic Primary (incl. Biden):
Sanders: 22%
Biden: 21%
Harris: 19%
O’Rourke: 10%
Buttigieg: 9%
Warren: 8%
Booker: 3%
Castro: 2%
(n=2003, California likely 2020 Democratic primary voters, April 6-9)
73
305
1K
2020 MINNESOTA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY:
Warren: 21%
Biden: 20%
Sanders: 19%
Klobuchar: 16%
Buttigieg: 11%
Harris: 4%
O'Rourke: 3%
Yang: 2%
(all others 1% or less)
More results here:
(n=772 likely Democratic primary voters in MN, Jun 8-12)
72
298
995
2020 NH Democratic Primary, voters under 35 only:
Bernie Sanders 48%
Joe Biden 23%
Beto O'Rourke 8%
Elizabeth Warren 5%
Hillary Clinton 4%
Kamala Harris 3%
Michael Bloomberg 2%
Cory Booker 2%
25
240
658
2020 NH Democratic Primary (Jan 2-3, 1162 likely Dem primary voters):
Bernie Sanders 26%
Joe Biden 24%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Beto O'Rourke 9%
Joe Kennedy III 9%
K Harris 4%
H Clinton 3%
C Booker 3%
J Kerry 2%
A Klobuchar 2%
M Bloomberg 2%
Others 0-1%
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623
No redactions here! NEW NATIONAL POLL:
2020 Democratic Primary (incl. Biden/Abrams):
Biden: 21%
Sanders: 20%
Buttigieg: 17%
O’Rourke: 9%
Warren: 8%
Harris: 7%
Abrams: 4%
Booker: 4%
Klobuchar: 2%
Yang: 2%
Gabbard: 2%
(n=2518, national likely 2020 Dem. primary voters, Apr 12-15)
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181
661
Net approval for governor’s handling of COVID-19
Whitmer (MI) +18
Cooper (NC) +10
Evers (WI) +10
Wolf (PA) +6
DeSantis (FL) -6
Ducey (AZ) -26
46
249
596
Cruz is doing quite well among pure Republicans, leading 95-4 among 2016 Trump voters. But Beto has consolidated support among everyone else: over 99% of Clinton 2016 voters, over 90% among Jill Stein voters, and double digit leads with 2016 non-voters and Gary Johnson voters.
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126
538
Texas is a state that Trump won 52-43. But, in a high turnout election, this will be a very close race if Beto can win virtually all Clinton voters, a few Trump voters, and the vast majority of non-voters and Stein/Johnson voters.
6
71
345
Beto's numbers have improved significantly over the past month or two. In prior polls, he was winning 95% support among Clinton voters, and the vote among swing voters was far closer.
3
65
329
Roy Moore has erased Doug Jones' lead, thanks largely to the fact that the vast majority of Republicans don't believe the allegations against Moore. Just 9% of Trump supporters believe them.
155
413
275
Virginia Democratic Primary Poll March 1-2 (n=510)
Voters who had been planning to vote for Buttigieg:
Biden 60%
Warren 12%
Bloomberg 11%
Sanders 10%
10
81
262
MI Senate (n=880)
Debbie Stabenow (D) 49
John James (R) 47
George E. Huffman III 1
Marcia Squier (G) 1
John Howard Wilhelm 1
Unlike Gretchen Whitmer, Debbie Stabenow is losing among independents, 47-44. Both major candidates lead 95-3 among people in their own party.
16
80
201
In both Texas and Florida, voters are highly energized. Huge percentages of people have already voted, and 78% of people in both states say they are "very excited" about voting.
5
43
202
Yep—MI voters say Biden would do a better job than Trump on *almost everything* except the economy:
managing COVID (Biden 45, Trump 42)
making healthcare more affordable (Biden 44, Trump 34)
improving education (Biden 46, Trump 34)
Check out Dan's memo on how Ds can win MI
.
@crookedmedia
and
@ChangePolls
recently conducted a poll of Michigan and it was very clear that Trump's economic approval is the only thing keeping him in the race.
The good news is that he is very vulnerable to arguments that he puts corporations first.
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207
2020 TEXAS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY:
O'Rourke: 27%
Biden: 24%
Sanders: 13%
Warren: 12%
Harris: 8%
Buttigieg: 8%
Abrams: 2%
Castro: 2%
(all others 1% or less)
More results here:
(n=1218, likely Democratic primary voters in Texas, May 30-June 3)
18
82
173
50% of voters are favorable toward Beto O'Rourke, 49% unfavorable. Opinion on Cruz is split exactly evenly: 50% favorable, 50% unfavorable.
6
44
182
Second choices for Kamala Harris supporters in recent Change Research polls:
- Warren 39%
- Biden 19%
- Buttigieg 14%
- Sanders 8%
- Booker 6%
- Klobuchar 3%
17
44
187
2020 Democratic Women Primary Voters (Jan 12-14, 1212 likely Dem. female primary voters and caucus goers):
Joe Biden 23%
Beto O’Rourke 20%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Kamala Harris 11%
B Sanders 10%
J Kennedy 5%
H Clinton 5%
A Klobuchar 2%
J Castro 2%
C Booker 2%
T Gabbard 2%
102
65
178
Favorability of different groups for NH likely Democratic primary voters:
Unions: 64% favorable, 11% unfavorable
Black Lives Matter: 72% favorable, 13% unfavorable
Big corporations: 8% favorable, 65% unfavorable
3
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170
Methodology note. Change Research polls online using a patent-pending approach called Bias Correct: unlike other online polls, we don't use panels, so we can poll affordably in small areas.
(We were the only pollster with Gillum ahead in FL Dem primary.) info
@changeresearch
.com
5
21
167
NEW POLL of likely NYC Dem primary voters (n=822, 6/11-14): Adams, Garcia & Wiley all within 4 points in 1st choice rankings
#NYCMayoralRace
Adams: 23
Garcia: 19
Wiley: 19
Garcia defeats Adams 51-49 in final round of RCV simulation thanks to strong 2nd & 3rd choice rankings.
9
45
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The latest
@CNBC
+Change Research national and battleground polls show Trump several points behind Biden. More on Coronavirus, the economy, and the 2020 election here:
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⚠️ Time to BeReal. ⚠️
3 weeks left to capture the youth vote…
NEW
@TeenVogue
Midterm Vibe Check II: Our poll shows that young voters support the Biden administration's accomplishments... but if they aren't hearing about them, did they even happen?
69
85
158
2020 NH Democratic Primary, voters 65 or older only:
Joe Biden 23%
Bernie Sanders 17%
Beto O'Rourke 13%
Joe Kennedy III 13%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Cory Booker 7%
Kamala Harris 4%
Michael Bloomberg 3%
15
44
137
And virtually no one is undecided: only 1-2% of respondents didn't know who they would vote for. People are paying attention to the Senate races in Florida and Texas -- including Change Research and
@RTBpac
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149
In OK-05, for the presidential race:
Trump: 49
Biden: 43
Jorgensen: 4
9
16
131
Most important issue to NH likely Democratic primary voters:
Healthcare 17%
Environmental issues 11%
Legalizing marijuana 9%
Opioids and addiction 8%
Ending corruption 7%
Voting rights/protecting democratic institutions 7%
Jobs/economy 6%
Education 6%
6
54
141
MT Senate (n=879)
Matt Rosendale (R) 49
Jon Tester (D) 46
Rick Breckenridge (L) 3
Tester only leads 51-38 among independents, and that's probably not enough for him to win. And Montana's political trends don't seem to be in his favor.
15
51
126
California Democratic Primary (not incl. Biden):
Sanders: 28%
Harris: 27%
O’Rourke: 16%
Buttigieg: 11%
Warren: 9%
Booker: 5%
Castro: 2%
(n=2003, California likely 2020 Democratic primary voters, April 6-9)
11
52
138
WI-06 (n=525)
Glenn Grothman (R) 50
Dan Kohl
@DanKohlWI
(D) 48
Movement: 15 points to D (was Trump+17)
In WI-06, even splits:
- Trump is 48% favorable, 47% unfavorable
- Grothman is 33% favorable, 35% unfavorable
- US Senate race, Gov race, and the this race within 2 points.
8
46
136
Next up: NY-24. We're showing a narrow lead for Democrat
@dana_balter
.
Balter: 46
Katko: 44
Williams: 4
9
16
127
NATIONAL POLL of likely 2022 Midterm Election voters ages 18-34 for
@AMarch4OurLives
:
Gun violence prevention policies that would make young voters feel safer:
• Requiring background checks
• Requiring safety training courses
• Banning the sale of assault weapons
8
30
128
Virginia Democratic Primary Poll March 1-2 (n=510):
Biden 74% favorable / 15% unfavorable
Sanders 62 fav / 25 unfav
Bloomberg 40 fav / 40 unfav
Warren 70 fav / 15 unfav
Klobuchar 50 fav / 18 unfav
5
35
119
In Texas, Illegal Immigration is the top issue, chosen by 21% of respondents. Health care was next, at 17%, followed by Jobs and the Economy.
3
25
113
Results from our latest national poll on the Democratic horse race:
Biden: 31%
Sanders: 22%
Warren: 15%
Buttigieg: 9%
Harris: 8%
O'Rourke: 4%
(all others 2% or less)
More results here:
(n=1,420, likely Democratic primary voters nationwide, 5/18-21)
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32
113
A majority (59%) of Alaskan voters view Lisa Murkowski unfavorably while just 26% hold a favorable opinion of her.
Dem: 48% favorable - 20% neutral - 32% unfavorable
Rep: 6% - 8% - 84%
Ind: 32% - 14% - 52%
By contrast, 85% of Republicans view former President Trump favorably.
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112
Polling in both states was conducted online Thursday 11/1 and Friday 11/2.
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15
113
Virginia Democratic Primary Poll March 1-2 (n=510):
Who do you think has the best chance of winning the Democratic nomination?
Biden 50%
Sanders 27%
Bloomberg 8%
Warren 3%
3
29
113
New
@IAStartingLine
/ Change Research poll in Iowa:
Biden: 24%
Sanders: 24%
Buttigieg: 14%
Warren: 12%
Harris: 10%
O'Rourke: 5%
Klobuchar: 2%
Yang: 2%
(others 1% or less)
(n=615, likely 2020 Democratic caucus-goers in IA, May 15-19)
Read the Iowa Starting Line's analysis ⬇️
New
@IAStartingLine
/
@ChangePolls
Iowa Caucus Poll: Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are tied in Iowa, a much closer contest here than in recent national polling
#IACaucus
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In Florida (n=1236), Sen. Bill Nelson leads 50-48.
Nelson leads 57-42 among women, while Gov. Rick Scott leads 56-43 among men. Nelson leads 97-2 among Clinton 2016 voters, Scott leads 96-3 among Trump 2016 voters, and Nelson leads 55-40 among 2016 non-voters.
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35
111
South Dakota Governor (n=851)
Billie Sutton (D) 51
Kristi Noem (R) 45
Kurt Evans (L) 2
An impressive 21% of Republicans plan to vote for Billie Sutton; he leads 51-40 among independents.
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34
109
MS Senate (n=1003)
Mike Espy 40
Chris McDaniel 28
Cindy Hyde-Smith 27
Tobey Bernard Bartee 1
Mike Espy will almost certainly advance to a runoff election. It's not clear who his opponent will be.
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42
107
NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY:
Warren: 22%
Sanders: 20%
Biden: 19%
Harris: 15%
Buttigieg: 13%
Gabbard: 3%
(all others 1% or less)
More results here:
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34
100
71% of voters consider Puerto Ricans to be Americans and 59% support statehood for Puerto Rico, making it more popular than D.C. statehood (53% support).
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109
We're excited that based on current returns our
@ChangePolls
/
@crookedmedia
poll of IA was the 2nd most accurate public poll of the Iowa caucuses!
0
13
109
New poll of likely voters in the September 14
#CArecall
election (n=782, 8/22-25):
42% have voted or plan to vote YES in support of the recall effort
57% have voted or plan to vote NO, to keep Governor Gavin Newsom in office.
NEWS:
@ChangePolls
, 732 likely voters shows Dems closing
#CARecall
enthusiasm gap. 92% of all Dems say they definitely will or already voted. Among likely voters, 42% support the recall, 57% oppose it. 1% undecided. On Pt. 2:
@larryelder
first w/ 27%.
@realMeetKevin
next at 6%.
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NATIONAL PRE-DEBATE POLL:
Warren: 22%
Sanders: 20%
Biden: 20%
Harris: 15%
Buttigieg: 9%
Yang: 3%
Klobuchar: 3%
O'Rourke: 2%
Gabbard: 1%
(all others 1% or less)
More results here:
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29
106
We polled in twelve House races between Saturday, 10/27 and Monday, 10/29:
- 12 districts Trump won by between 8 and 27 points
- Mostly districts in the Midwest (IA, IN, KS, MI, OH, WI), plus one each in CO, FL, NY
- Districts Trump won by an average of 16+ points.
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KS-02 (n=902)
Paul Davis
@PaulDavisKS
(D) 44
Steve Watkins (R) 45
Movement: 17 points to D (was Trump+18)
Polling here lines up with other public polling. Education is the top issue here, and the Governor's race is tied within the district (45-45).
8
32
96
Likely NH Democratic primary voters overwhelmingly say taxes on wealthy Americans are too low -- and taxes on middle class and lower income Americans are too high.
1
31
93
MI-06 (n=466)
Fred Upton (R) 46
Matt Longjohn
@MattLongjohn
(D) 43
Movement: 5 points to D (was Trump+8)
Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer.
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94
We also polled Nebraska CD-02, and we’re showing
@karaforcongress
up 1:
Eastman: 48
Bacon: 47
Schaeffer: 2
2
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96
CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY 12/6-10:
Sanders: 26%
Warren: 23%
Biden: 19%
Buttigieg: 12%
Yang: 4%
Bloomberg: 3%
Gabbard: 3%
Booker: 3%
Castro: 3%
Steyer: 2%
All others 1% or less
(n=862 likely Democratic primary voters)
More results:
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88
2020 Democratic Primary (Nationwide):
Biden: 26%
Sanders: 21%
Warren: 19%
Buttigieg: 14%
Harris: 8%
O'Rourke: 3%
More results from our nationwide poll on climate change here:
(n=1621 likely Dem. primary voters nationwide, Jun 5-10)
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81
IN-09 (n=541)
Trey Hollingsworth (R) 52
Liz Watson
@LizForIndiana
(D) 45
Movement: 20 points to D (was Trump+27)
A perhaps surprisingly close race. Watson doing better than Donnelly here (he's down 9) and feelings on Trump are mixed (52% favorable, 42% unfavorable).
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POLL for
@crookedmedia
(10/23-24):
The coverage voters are seeing about Biden is mostly positive; stories about Trump are overwhelmingly negative.
Democrats:
3% of what they’ve heard in the last week about Trump is positive
88% negative
Republicans:
44% positive
43% negative
7
23
96
74% of likely NH Democratic primary voters blame Donald Trump for the government shutdown.
3
16
84
NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY 8/23-26:
Warren: 29%
Sanders: 22%
Biden: 19%
Buttigieg: 9%
Harris: 6%
Booker: 3%
O’Rourke: 3%
All others 2% or less
(n=874 likely Democratic primary voters)
More results:
3
35
86
NEW POLL IN CA:
Biden: 30%
Sanders: 23%
Harris: 15%
Buttigieg: 12%
Warren: 12%
O'Rourke: 3%
(all others 1% or less)
(n=1,649, likely Democratic primary voters in California, May 25-28)
MORE RESULTS HERE:
Featured in
@POLITICO
CA Playbook: New CA
@ChangePolls
shows
@JoeBiden
leading the pack with 30%, followed by
@BernieSanders
at 23% and
@KamalaHarris
at 15% via
@politico
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81
NH Primary
Leaders by congressional district
NH-01
Sanders 27
Buttigieg 22
Klobuchar 10
NH-02
Sanders 32
Buttigieg 20
(Tie) Biden / Warren 10
(n=662 likely Democratic primary voters)
More results:
3
15
86
This week we polled 1200+ people in both Florida and Texas, working with
@RTBPac
to see where things stand in two U.S. Senate races. We found two very close races.
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42
82
2020 Democratic Primary (NOT incl. Biden/Abrams):
Sanders: 26%
Buttigieg: 21%
O’Rourke: 14%
Harris: 10%
Warren: 10%
Booker: 5%
Klobuchar: 3%
Yang: 3%
(n=2518, likely 2020 Democratic primary voters nationwide, April 12-15)
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32
86
In Indiana CD-05, we're showing another *really* tight race for Democrat
@HaleIndy
— in a district we expect to go to Trump:
Hale: 46
Spartz: 46
Tucker: 5
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14
82
NEW Poll of
#IASEN
for
@FrankenforIowa
Chuck Grassley: 48%
Mike Franken: 45%
Undecided: 6%
n=1,008 likely voters, October 14-18, 2022
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18
84
IN-05 (n=527)
Susan Brooks (R) 50
Dee Thornton
@VoteThornton
(D) 44
Movement: 6 points to D (was Trump+12)
Trump is 47% favorable, 48% favorable in a district he won by 12. Donnelly leads in the district by 5.
4
23
78
In MO-02 for the presidential race:
Trump: 48
Biden: 47
Jorgensen: 1
3
4
76
@PeterTheThomas
Poll was conducted online. Sample self-identifies as 35% D, 38% R, 28% I. 50% voted for Trump in 2016; 42% voted for Clinton in 2016. Sample consists of registered voters, weighting for turnout likelihood of each voter (in addition to post stratification on age/gender/ethnicity).
5
9
76
The top four issues in Florida are Health care, Illegal Immigration, Jobs and the Economy, and Environmental Issues. Each was selected by 12-16% of respondents. Environmental Issues consistently comes up more in Florida than in most U.S. states.
1
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74
Joe Biden leads in Congressional District 1 in NH, with Bernie Sanders 2nd and Beto O'Rourke 3rd. In CD 2, it's a different story: Sanders leads, with Biden 5 points behind and Elizabeth Warren in 3rd.
2
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67
POLL OF LIKELY 2022 VOTERS IN ALASKA (5/22-25):
In Alaska's new ranked-choice voting system, Senator Lisa Murkowski begins this race in a difficult position: 3rd place.
Trump-endorsed Republican Kelly Tshibaka leads in the initial ballot, followed by Democrat Al Gross
#AKSen
12
22
74
Joe Biden does well with female Democratic primary voters with low, medium, and high awareness of the candidates. Beto O’Rourke, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris do comparatively better with the more aware women.
12
28
72
Maine Democratic Primary Poll March 1-2 (n=507):
Sanders 43%
Biden 24%
Warren 16%
Bloomberg 10%
10
28
72
Far fewer Montanans now describe themselves as independents compared to 18 months ago.
Today, more than 3x as many Montanans (36%, compared to 11%) rate Trump a 10 out of 10. The state's independent streak appears to be thinning -- hurting candidates like Tester.
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60
In AR-02, Democrat
@xjelliott
is neck-and-neck with her opponent, while Trump has a 5-point lead in the same district.
Elliott (D): 48
Hill (R): 48
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69
Joe Biden is the second choice for NH voters who select Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, or Elizabeth Warren as their first choice.
10
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61
Honesty and ethics stood out as the most important quality among NH Democrats for a possible nominee: 41% said it was the most important quality. 26% said it was most important that a possible nominee could beat Donald Trump.
4
16
66
Virginia Democratic Primary Poll March 1-2 (n=510):
71% of Sanders voters "absolutely certain" of their choice
68% of Biden voters absolutely certain
48% of Warren voters absolutely certain
37% of Bloomberg voters absolutely certain
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NEW
@CROOKEDMEDIA
POLL:
In this installment of the
#PollerCoaster
, we asked Arizona voters how they felt about HR1, the
#ForThePeopleAct
Verdict: It's popular! 57% support it, including 21% of Republicans. But framing matters.
Full results:
THREAD🧵⬇️
1
18
65
NEW
@CNBC
NATIONAL POLL OF TRUMP VOTERS (11/18-11/21)
ONLY 3% of Trump voters believe Joe Biden legitimately and legally won the election.
73% believe Trump is the legitimate winner
24% are unsure
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OH Governor (n=923)
Richard Cordray (D) 48
Mike DeWine (R) 43
Travis Irvine (L) 5
Constance Gadell-Newton (G) 1
In Ohio, Donald Trump is viewed favorably by 48% of voters, and unfavorably by 50%.
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NH likely Democratic primary voters: How concerned are you about income inequality in this country?
Very concerned 66%
Somewhat concerned 20%
A bit concerned 7%
Not concerned at all 7%
1
20
62
Over 2/3 of NH voters with low awareness of Democratic candidates currently would be most likely to support Bernie Sanders (39%) or Joe Biden (29%). No other candidate is in double digits among low awareness voters.
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57
2020 Texas Democratic Primary:
O'Rourke: 25%
Biden: 20%
Sanders: 19%
Buttigieg: 15%
Harris: 5%
Warren: 5%
Castro: 4%
Booker: 2%
(others 1% or less)
(n=1578, likely 2020 Democratic primary voters in Texas, April 18-22)
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DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY IN NEW JERSEY 8/16-20:
Biden: 26%
Warren: 23%
Sanders: 21%
Buttigieg: 12%
Harris: 8%
Booker: 5%
O’Rourke: 2%
All others 1% or less
(n=635 likely Democratic primary voters in NJ)
More results:
6
29
64
Among likely Florida voters, 49% are favorable to President Trump, 50% unfavorable. Voters are evenly split on Bill Nelson, 48-48, and slightly negative on Rick Scott: 45% favorable, 54% unfavorable.
1
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61
Race breakdowns from Texas:
O'Rourke leads among black and Latinx voters, while white voters prefer Biden.
More results here:
(n=1218 likely Democratic primary voters in Texas, May 30-June 3)
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NEW
@CROOKEDMEDIA
/ CHANGE RESEARCH POLL (9/9-13)
Among new and infrequent voters:
Biden leads 50-36 in AZ (+14)
Biden leads 52-37 in FL (+15)
Biden leads 58-31 in MI (+27)
Biden leads 47-38 in NC (+9)
Biden leads 49-39 in PA (+10)
Biden leads 43-41 in WI (+2)
@votesaveamerica
7
12
59
POLL OF LIKELY VOTERS IN ALASKA (5/22-25):
After the ranked choice process, Al Gross picks up a substantial share of Murkowski’s second choice voters.
Gross moves from 28% of the decided vote initially to 46% and ends up trailing Tshibaka by only single digits (54%-46%)
#AKSen
3
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58
For the record, these were our final numbers, sent to the Gillum team this morning:
Andrew Gillum 34
Gwen Graham 29
Philip Levine 22
Jeff Greene 8
Chris King 3
Actual results:
Andrew Gillum 34.3
Gwen Graham 31.3
Philip Levine 20.3
Jeff Greene 10.1
Chris King 2.5
Andrew Gillum's best pre-election poll: 16 percent
His showing tonight in FL: 33 percent
37
308
1K
5
19
57
NEW IOWA POLL with
@IAStartingLine
:
Warren: 28%
Sanders: 17%
Biden: 17%
Buttigieg: 13%
Harris: 8%
Booker: 3%
O’Rourke: 3%
Gabbard: 2%
Klobuchar: 2%
Steyer: 2%
Bullock: 2%
(all others 1% or less)
More results here:
There was a concern growing out there that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders might split the progressive vote too much for either to win. They're both doing just fine in this Iowa poll, combining together in a fractured field for 45%
1
9
25
2
11
55
67% of NH likely Democratic primary voters know someone affected by opioid use.
51% of NH likely Democratic primary voters know MULTIPLE people affected by opioid use.
3
12
49