Matt Simpson
@cLeverEdge
Followers
3,137
Following
471
Media
3,639
Statuses
8,502
Market Analyst covering forex, indices, gold and oil during the Asian session with @forexcom and @CityIndex . No DM's.
Brisbane, Queensland
Joined July 2010
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
#BUS_KnockKnockKnock_KhonKaen
• 474146 Tweets
Bama
• 105648 Tweets
スプリンターズS
• 86909 Tweets
Ryan Williams
• 49397 Tweets
ナムラクレア
• 23274 Tweets
#RIZIN48
• 20204 Tweets
サトノレーヴ
• 19043 Tweets
ママコチャ
• 18488 Tweets
西村騎手
• 15942 Tweets
ショアキーパー
• 15181 Tweets
マッドクール
• 14147 Tweets
西村淳也
• 13834 Tweets
CRかるび
• 13536 Tweets
かるびCR
• 12943 Tweets
Ashton Jeanty
• 11157 Tweets
#USDJPY
just spiked 170 pips and reached 160 during low-liquidity trade with Japan on a public holiday. Nice.
If the BOJ want the threat of intervention to be taken seriously, they simply need to do instead of loosely hinting it. But if they didn’t intervene with the break
6
18
49
The
#RBA
hiked rates by 50 bps to 0.85% - making it the first 50 bps hike since February 2000.
That’s also 75-bps over the past two meeting, which makes it their most aggressive back-to-back meeting on record.
1
6
26
@grhutchens
I think it means they built a model, based on their plan, to tell them their plan is correct.
1
0
21
Oh wow - so markets now pricing in a 70.5% chance of a 50bp Fed hike in March (up from 31.4% the day prior) and a terminal rate of 5.75% (5.5% the day prior)
Not bad for a day's work
#Powell
#FOMC
#Fed
#centralbanks
2
7
13
US dollar forecast: April tends to weigh on USD, GBP/USD outperforms
We’re approaching the end of month and quarter, which also lands on the long Easter Holiday weekend. So that could lead to some erratic price behaviour as we head towards Friday, which
4
7
13
That's quite a miss for NZ
#Inflation
2.2% q/q vs 1.6% expected (1.7% prior)
7.2% y/y vs 6.6% expected (and 7.3% prior)
4
7
15
Gold just made minced meat out of the 2022 / prior record high, rising $75 at the open and smashing above its 1-week implied volatility band.
Lots of gold headlines are to be expected. But I remain suspicious of the move, given it occurred during low liquidity trade.
I've
4
6
15
The US dollar could be undervalued if commodities continue to rip higher
The chart below shows the Thomson Reuters CRB core commodities index and the US dollar index. Whilst far from perfect, they generally share a positive correlation. And that is a
0
3
14
A weak payrolls report may not be a slam dunk
If we look at data over the last couple of weeks, it is hard to argue that the US economy is not slowing. Core PCE and super core PCE surprised to the downside last week, and the soft ISM services report is
1
6
15
The RBA have ruled out, that a further hike cannot be ruled out....
Or in English, the RBA removed their slight tightening bias from the Feb statement.
So the RBA are to remain in perpetual hold mode, for now.
A quick glance at the AU
#employment
report suggests the -106k culling of FT jobs in December was an (un)festive blip. Oh.. and that unemployment rose to the three-year high of 4.1%.
#AUD
pairs trading lower on the day - and (obviously), higher unemployment is great for the
1
4
6
3
4
13
Large speculators increased their gross-long exposure to JPY/USD futures by 50% last week. Since then we have heard BOJ governor Ueda talk of a potential hike - so USD/JPY bulls may want to err on the side of caution, especially if it closes in on 150.
1
8
14
I figured the long-term seasonality of the
#SP500
would show strong returns in the 2nd half of December, but didn't expect to see Boxing day pack such a big punch with the strongest average and median returns.
Also, the strongest negative returns on Dec 14th coincide with the
5
9
14
Market positioning from the COT report - as of Tuesday 2023:
Net-short exposure to
#JPY
futures rose to their highest level since November 2017 last week. Looking back through history, net-short exposure doesn’t seem to hang around such extreme levels for
1
2
14
We have an
#ECB
interest rate decision, press conference and US data sandwiched in between.
And that could make for an unforgiving 30 minutes of whipsaws and general mayhem for intraday traders not paying attention.
Just musing again... but if we see US retail sales and PPI
1
7
11
#EURUSD
around the low of the day, on trend support (a level which seems likely to break sooner than later IMO)
However, as we head into the Asian session, take note that negative-delta volume spikes usually form around near-term inflection points.
RSI (2) also Oversold.
2
7
11
The US dollar may not have followed its seasonal tendency of rising on
#Thanksgiving
day, but it did hold above its 200-day average following a 3-day bullish reversal pattern.
Take note that the Friday (today) and Monday following Thanksgiving have provided positive average and
4
7
13
EUR/USD, AUD/USD, gold look set to take advantage of US dollar weakness:
Good job I put that Fibo-nutjob level on earlier this week, for the USD dollar index to reverse at.
The US dollar index perfectly tested the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio before rolling
USD ‘rebound’ lacks the enthusiasm of last week’s selloff:
I still don't trust this 3-day rebound on USD. The index was certainly hesitant to break and hold above 106 this year and the high-volume bearish outside week likely marks the beginning of at
1
4
1
3
4
12
#USDJPY
really looks like it wants to close that weekend opening gap heading into US
#CPI
.
On that note, wondering if inflation will turn into a slight disappointment (reaction wise) given the anticipation of it. And with higher
#inflation
expected, it may have to be quite a
2
7
11
I can't say I'm looking for any oversized moves for
#gold
in July... but there potential support around the 1908 - 1913 area (volume clusters) and of course the big round $19k level.
US
#inflation
on Friday could be a key driver for gold.
$2k seems a stretch any time soon.
3
5
12
Yep. Markets are currently asleep. But implied volatility levels for the next 24hrs are elevated due to the
#FOMC
meeting, with GBP/USD getting the added excitement from today's UK
#inflation
report.
2
4
12
And here is a problem - core CPI m/m is actually trending higher.
0.5% m/m was above the 0.4% forecast (which is still high) and an annualised rate of 6%.
The
#SIVB
pickle may have stolen CPI's thunder, but at best this looks like sticky inflation.
0
7
12
EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, WTI Analysis: Commitment of traders report
2
4
11
With an FOMC looming, forex markets are unlikely to break out with any sort of conviction without a fresh catalyst. The general lack of direction can be clearly seen on the US dollar index chart, but I’m hopeful that Wednesday’s FOMC meeting or Friday’s nonfarm payroll report can
2
4
12
Looking at an equal-weighted
#gold
basket against FX majors, its bullish character has certainly changed since breaking above its previous ATH.
- Bullish momentum is waning
- There's a slight RSI (2) divergence
- Three upper wicks show a reluctance to hold above $2500
1
4
11
I noted last week that
#GBPUSD
tends to outperform in April, at least according to seasonality date of the past 43 years.
Here is the daily performance for
#GBP
in April over the past 53 years, which shows its tends to perform well between 8th - 10th April (with most of those
US dollar forecast: April tends to weigh on USD, GBP/USD outperforms
We’re approaching the end of month and quarter, which also lands on the long Easter Holiday weekend. So that could lead to some erratic price behaviour as we head towards Friday, which
4
7
13
2
4
12
Depending on which way you look at it, the timing of the
#hindenburg
report is both unfortunate and perfect, with investors recently being in 'sell first, ask later mode'.
It's going to be a long weekend for
#JackDorsey
and
#Block
1
5
12
European Open: The dollar rally loses steam, US economic data picks up pace
2
2
8
No calls for a 15bp hike?
25bp seems more likely, but 15 would take it back to nice, round quarter-point increments.
#RBA
to announce their decision in 20 mins.
3
5
11
GBP/USD, S&P 500, gold, WTI analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)
0
1
11
#USDJPY
has pulled back from yesterday's high, but its strong intraday trend shows the potential to form a base above/around 133
1
4
11
Aaaaand there it is....
#CHFJPY
tests the January 2015 high (and is within striking distance of its ATH)
2
8
10
#USDJPY
is on track for its best month since June 2022, having risen over 11% MTD. It is debatable how much upside potential remains for the remainder of the month given its strong start to the year. And for USD/JPY to simply continue higher and break above the BOJ intervention
0
1
11
Commitment of traders report (COT): Bears are aggressively short T-notes
3
5
7
Net-short exposure to AUD futures reached a record high last week among large speculators and asset managers. Yet the Aussie continues to defy bears a sustainable break below 64c.
Prices either need to fall or shorts may have to cover and fuel a rally.
2
6
9
Feeling a slow start to the day following the long
#Thanksgiving
weekend, with China's industrial profits being the only highlight of today's Asian session at 12:30 AEDT / 01:30 GMT.
I'm waiting to see if we see any gap lower from the key $75 / 2023 open support zone for
#WTI
5
3
8
Asian Open: USD/JPY back below 150, Gold bugs reclaim $2000
0
2
9
US dollar weakness might be short lived: The Week Ahead
The US dollar shows the potential to retrace some of the week's losses in light of hawkish Fed comments. Although attention now shifts to next week's US PCE inflation report, Australian CPI and RBNZ interest rate decision /
0
2
11
GBP/USD, gold in focus for US PPI, retail sales: European Open
Must say I do like the look of
#GBPUSD
for a potential short.
We have a false break (mini blow off top) above the December high and a rising wedge below the December high / 50% retracement
1
2
9
1
2
10
#Gold
on a sec...
Gold just posted its highest monthly close on record in November.
It also has positive average returns over the past 45 yrs of 1.15% (and a positive win rate with avg returns over the past 30, 15, 10 a 5yrs).
A shame it's so close to those record highs,
5
4
10
The
#BOC
just dropped one of their preferred
#CPI
measures
- Common CPI has been given the boot
- Inflation too high and the BOC are concerned
#inflation
expectations will rise
-
#CADJPY
consolidates near cycle lows ahead of todays
#employment
report
1
4
8
“
#Gold
has lifted itself slightly from Friday’s low but buyers are lacking conviction, so looks more like technical repositioning,” said
@CityIndexAus
Analyst Matt Simpson.
1
8
9
I will be shocked, SHOCKED if
#USDJPY
doesn't close higher today.
Yes, fundamentals matter. But they don't always rule.
Mean reversion incoming!
3
4
10
Tough at the top? US yields smashed (particularly the 2-year) as once again its rally gets foiled around the 5% level.
And remember, large speculators reached another fresh record high of net exposure last week.
0
5
7
Yields are retracing!
Takes a step back...
Good luck risk!
5
7
10
A nice series of upper wicks round the 200-day EMA shows the reluctance for
#AUDUSD
to break higher. It failed to rally on 'good news' from China, so perhaps a bout of 'bad news' could sink it.
...or a soft CPI report on Wednesday.
Large speculators have been trimming longs in
2
4
10
#NaturalGas
prices fell to an 11-month low on expectations of warmer weather expectations across all 48-states in the US for the next two weeks.
So that's nice and
#deflationary
- but there are some big support levels nearby.
1
5
10
0
4
9
I don't have the stats to back this up, but... it feels like a bad omen for a currency that rises into a central bank meeting.
#AUD
is doing just that, with the
#RBA
up in just under 2hrs.
Unless they hike 25bp today, upside seems limited to my eyes. Even a 15bp hike (which
AUD/USD weekly outlook: Aussie rises for a second week, RBA on tap
1
5
5
2
4
10
No, I'm not calling 'the top' for the
#ASX200
, given the underlying strength of its bullish trend. But we may be in the need of a pullback.
It trades within a rising channel on the daily, although a small doji formed on Tuesday with a failed break above 7900 and a bearish
1
5
10
#AUDJPY
is holding above its 100-day EMA, and so far it looks like the spike lower last Thursday will be left unchallenged.
This is more of an interesting observation than anything else, but... since July AUD/JPY has printed a prominent spike / higher low every 40 - 47 days.
1
4
8
1
6
8
Well this is getting interesting.
The
#USD
index was lower for a third day ahead of
#NFP
, found support above the 200-day MA/EMA and formed a small bullish hammer. Volume delta is also slightly positive (more bids than offers).
I noted the tendency for
US dollar, USD/JPY, gold performance around Nonfarm payrolls (NFP):
Nobody asked, but I answered anyway.
Since June 2020,
#NFP
job growth figures have beaten expectations 67.4% of the time and the prior print has been upwardly revised 53.4% of the
0
0
2
2
4
10
US 1-year inflation expectations remained at 3% according to the NY Fed. The 3-year dropped to 2.4%.
Whilst CPI expectations are trending lower, they remain elevated and above the Fed's 2% target up to 3 years out... Even the 1-year CPI expectations from University of Michigan
0
7
10
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)
1
3
8
NZ business confidence not as dire as it was - pricing intentions remain historically high, but early signs of easing on a m/m basis
2
3
7
#AUDUSD
breaks below 84c and currently lower for its 8th consecutive day (amid its worst run since March 2020)
Potential support is nearby at 0.6386. But that is hardly a screaming buy signal...
Employment data is up in 12 mins.
2
2
10
1 and 2-year
#inflation
expectations for
#NzewZealand
plummet at their fastest pace since the pandemic.
Looks like the
#RBNZ
might actually hold at their next meeting.
Yep. Pretty sure the low is in for
#AUDNZD
.
#NZD
2
7
9
It looks like the
#HangSeng
is trying to turn the ship around.
Weekly bullish pinbar and a higher low. A break above 20k / 20,156 suggests momentum has realigned with the upswing in late 2022.
0
4
9
Japan won't intervene unless yen slides below 155, says ex-FX diplomat Watanabe (Reuters)
#USDJPY
is currently trading at 154.24...
0
6
9
#Gold
positioning has caught my eye...
Net-long exposure among asset managers rose to the highest level since March 2022 - the week prior to a 23% decline. Large specs are also ~200k net long, an area it has struggled to advance above over the past
2
1
7
Fed funds suggest Mar is the Fed's last hike and for rates to peak at 5% (despite hints of two more Fed hikes in March and May).
They're also beginning to price in -25bp in Nov and Dec, but at ~35% it is with low conviction.
Core services ex-housing
#CPI
a key metric to watch.
1
4
9
Gold Wrap, Silver Lining:
A multi-timeframe view of gold suggests $2600 could be its next upside target on its way to $3000 (just don't hold your breath). For now, gold and silver could find some support ahead of a key US inflation report and FOMC
1
2
8
#EURUSD
fell for a seventh consecutive week - which is its most bearish sequence since October 2014.
Whilst this marked a temporary pause in its bearish trend, it went on to fall another -20.3% over the next 28 weeks.
1
7
9
That played out splendidly. If only they all did...
Whilst I suspect
#USDJPY
has further downside potential, maybe its time for a corrective bounce. Stability has been found around Thursday's low / lower Keltner band / high-volume node.
Hopefully bears will get more favourable
"Tops are a process, bottoms are an event" as they say.
Japanese yen favoured as bitcoin triggers bout of risk off
I have been quite vocal about a potential bearish reversal on
#USDJPY
in recent weeks, given the extreme bearish positioning on Japanese
0
2
6
1
4
9
Maybe
#EURGBP
will stop messing around and finally break beneath 85p this time around.
If CESI is anything to go by...
1
4
8
