I simulated equity curves for each of the four hypothetical strategies. The key constants across all are: • EV per trade: 0.20 • Simulations per strategy: 100 equity curves • Trades per simulation: 1,000 • Risk per trade: 1% of equity (starting with $100) • Scale: Log Win 80% - R:R 0.5:1 Biggest max drawdown: 12.40% Avg. max drawdown: 5.90% Avg. performance: 623.10% Max consecutive winners: 46 Max consecutive losers: 7 Win 60% - R:R 1:1 Biggest max drawdown: 17.80% Avg. max drawdown: 11.10% Avg. performance: 636.50% Max consecutive winners: 19 Max consecutive losers: 14 Win 40% - R:R 2:1 Biggest max drawdown: 35.90% Avg. max drawdown: 19.20% Avg. performance: 665.20% Max consecutive winners: 12 Max consecutive losers: 19 Win 20% - R:R 5:1 Biggest max drawdown: 62.00% Avg. max drawdown: 35.40% Avg. performance: 775.80% Max consecutive winners: 7 Max consecutive losers: 46 Question: After reading this and seeing the data, have you changed your mind about your choice? If so, why?

A long thread about my thoughts regarding Berachain’s current situation As many of you know, I’ve been very vocal about Berachain and I’ve spent a lot of time and effort in the ecosystem. After all this, I feel that I have to share my honest opinion regarding the launch, the current situation and my thoughts with all of you. I’ll start with the bad things or the things I don’t like: - $BERA inflation This is my main concern since it will clearly be reflected in the PA. The annual inflation of BGT is 10% of the total supply (total supply = 500M; inflation 1st year = 50M). The circulating supply in the first year is around 21.5% (110M tokens) + 2% from Boyco in 30–90 days, so having 50M inflation means around 50% inflation in the first year if all the BGT were burned (which it won’t, but I’m just showing the worst-case scenario). This first year will end up with around 170M tokens circulating. In the second year, it has the same BGT inflation (10% = 55M) plus 196M tokens from different allocations (the biggest one coming from private investors). That would be a total of 418M tokens circulating at the end of the second year. This means that in the second year, the inflation will be around 150%. While it is true that most L1s have a lot of inflation in the first years, Berachain’s inflation is significantly higher than most. Also, IMHO, this comparison isn’t good for Berachain since most projects’ PA is really bad mainly due to this inflation, so it’s not an excuse. - $BERA private investors Berachain sold more than 35% of its token supply to private investors (I thought it was just 20%), with the seed round sold at $50M FDV, the second round at $420M FDV, and the last one at $1.5B FDV. These are a lot of tokens. Most projects sell 20% of their supply privately and I already think that’s too much and causes a lot of harm to the project. This amount of tokens sold, plus its long vesting, creates permanent sell pressure until all of them are vested and this usually leads to down-only charts in projects that launch at multiples FDV (aka high FDV, low float). - $BERA staking for private investors Although this is not something really, really bad (gotta say I don’t like it), it’s something that should be mentioned and explained better. Private investors can stake $BERA and earn liquid rewards that they can dump (let's say they stake $BERA and get more $BERA). 15% of the annual BGT inflation (7.5M BGT) will be distributed among the validators, most of which will be shared among the stakers. If all the supply (500M) was staked, the APY would be around 1.6%, but this won’t happen. It seems that the real staking percentage would be around 60% of the total $BERA supply, which would mean around a 2.8–3.2% APY. This can’t be compared with Celestia (which many people do) since Celestia’s APY was around 20%, but we also can’t say it’s a good thing since most of those rewards will be dumped and that will add more sell pressure, but also gotta say that everybody can stake Bera, earn that APY and thus dilute the APY from investors. - Last-minute changes + bad documentation Something that really pissed me off is that this $BERA staking mechanism wasn’t publicly known until a few weeks ago and right now, even if you want to find information about the staking rewards, you have to spend a lot of time to find something meaningful. This is a really important topic (that has even more importance in the current market conditions and the anti-VC vibes) that should have been explained better and more publicly and should also have been explained in the documentation from day 1. This lack of communication until Jack made the thread caused a lot of FUD even among the OGs, which caused—again—bad PA and had people more pissed and refusing to listen about Berachain. I’m not gonna lie; this pissed me off since it feels like they were hiding this BERA staking for private investors until the last moment (it’s weird it wasn’t well explained in the documentation), but after understanding that it’s just a 3% APY, I think it was just a miscommunication. - There’s no PoL (yet) Berachain’s core product is Proof of Liquidity. If this isn’t ready, Berachain is just another PoS fork and, right now, it’s exactly that. This won’t continue this way for too long (I hope), but since you can’t do anything with BGT right now, people somehow feel disappointed and some will probably also refuse to understand Berachain in the future because of this. AFAIK this is a necessary step to ensure Berachain works perfectly before fully deploying PoL and I don’t even know if there is any other solution to this, but the truth is that this is just another drop in the ocean adding to everything that’s happening. The most important thing here is that they don’t take months to fully deploy it. - DevBear is selling The cofounder is selling tokens from one of his doxxed addresses. He got around 200k BERA from the airdrop (this is a really bad thing since he—or the core—designed the airdrop) and then he swapped some of those tokens for WBTC, ETH, BYUSD, etc. Even if he didn’t sell any it’s not a good thing to allow a core member to have such a big airdrop. He might be testing things in production or just adding liquidity, but even if this is the case, this should be addressed and explained immediately. Now let’s talk about the good things: - Berachain community is big and strong Something that can’t be denied is that the Berachain community is one of the biggest and best communities in this space. I’ve been in this space for years, and this is, by far, one of the best ones and I’m pretty sure that even if there were some mistakes, the community and the builders will help the foundation in the best way they can. - Amount of Dapps The community is big and good, but builders are even better. They have built, tested, and deployed an insane amount of dapps that will eventually be launched in the coming weeks. This is something every chain needs for its success and having all these dapps from the beginning is something makes me really bullish in the mid term. - They’ve taken security seriously Security is usually a big concern when it comes to novel mechanisms and new blockchains. When it comes to something as new as Berachain, the need for security is even bigger, but something I really like is that the Foundation took it very seriously, taking into account every single detail and moving in a slow but secure process to launch and decentralize the network. Even if we don’t like slow things, I believe it’s EV+. - Proof of Liquidity I still think PoL is a really interesting mechanism that, when it’s fully deployed and when the flywheel starts to kick in, we will see amazing APYs that will bring a lot of farmers to the chain. Conclusions I’m pretty sure that just holding $BERA is not a good idea because of all the things I’ve mentioned here, but I’m also pretty sure that playing PoL will be really worth it. I see Berachain as a Yieldchain, not as a chain where you hold an unproductive token and that’s it. You have to add liquidity, loop, lend, borrow, figure out the best strategy to earn BGT, do DD on every validator to see where you delegate your BGT (or if it’s more worthwhile to burn it to autocompound). You will have to work hard instead of just holding a token. The most critical thing, IMHO, is to bring liquidity and to kick the flywheel. If this works, Berachain will succeed. Before I finish this reflection, I want to say that I’ve always seen Berachain as a breath of fresh air in a place full of scams, something with its own culture and good morals, and I’m not gonna lie—seeing this “bad” launch and the “shady” stuff (BERA staking changes, etc.) makes me feel kinda sad. But in the end, if the Foundation and the builders keep working as they have for the last few years, Berachain will succeed and will become the best place to yield by far.