Travelled to interior Malda, Birbhum, Raiganj last week.
Armchair pollsters suggesting o/way consolidation of Ms towards TMC wud be stunned with final nos.
Anti incumbency against TMC is real. Such levels were last experienced against Left in 2009/11.
@Antardrshti
@bipbhat
All such attempts have been crushed by CAPF. Local TMC ldrs are abusing EC, left/right/centre.
In fact, this time I'm finding TMC g00ns somewhat sluggish......
@Antardrshti
@thepheonixguy
Based on my recent visit to Shimla, my prediction is as follows:
Result may be a repeat of 1998 Assembly polls outcome.
BJP has made a spirited comeback from the situation that was prevalent a year ago when a near rout was staring at the face of BJP.
@Suyash75
@ViratHindu24
Kolkata Bongs hv shifted to BJP in large nos.
But real supporters of TMC in Kolkata are non Bongs viz Marwaris, Gujjus, Punjabis etc.
BJP must breach this votebank to win in Kolkata. If they succeed, there's no looking back
@thepheonixguy
@GuptaSourasish
@Antardrshti
@bosechem
A brilliant list.
On date, in Durgapur-Bardhaman seat, it's advantage TMC due to terrible performance of incumbent BJP MP.
Nomination of Dilip Ghosh nullifies the local anti incumbency.
Medinipur has been adjusted accordingly.
@Antardrshti
@bipbhat
They will also get roasted within Greater Kolkata. Margins of victory will get reduced massively.
If polls are free & fair, just like Ph 1-3, and BJP manages to continue with the momentum, there are 50% chances of 1-2 seats flipping.
@Antardrshti
@thepheonixguy
@bosechem
The violence during 90/10s, perpetuated by Left cadres on TMC supporters, was 10 times higher.
The violence during 60/70s, perpetuated by Cong cadres on Left supporters, was 20 times higher.
@bong_politics
@bosechem
With these vote % the figs would be
BJP - 34
TMC - 8
Congress - 0
Left - 0
My prediction as of now, is as under
BJP - 20 (42%)
TMC - 21 (43%)
Congress - 1 (7%)
Left - 0 (6%)
Final prediction after 3rd phase of polls.
@Antardrshti
@sreeramjvc
@Sootradhar
West Bengal Prediction:
BJP - 25 (48%)
TMC - 16 (40%)
Congress - 1 (6%)
Left - 0 (4%)
This has been my prediction since the last 2 months and now everyone is saying the same.
Jai Shree Ram.
Also, after getting feedback of voting pattern in Ph-4 in Matua dominated areas and indifference attitude amongst M voters, D1di has suddenly started supporting CAA with "conditions."
@MukulAgarwal66
@Antardrshti
@bosechem
This is extremely unfair.
@Antardrshti
's record is superb. One must understand that no one can get 100% right every time.
I still consider him THE best till date.
You hv my support bro!!!
I cannot fathom how can a seasoned polititian & grass root leader like D!di can commit such a blunder.
During their peak rule (80-90-10s), Left used to keep these organizations on their shoulders with huge largesse.
@Antardrshti
@bosechem
"Supporting" and "Voting" are totally different. In 2006-07, I supported Left when they wanted to set up TATA factory in Singur. Ditto when MMS notified FDI in retail secor in 2012.
But I never voted for either Left or Cong, till date.
@Antardrshti
@MandarSawant184
@bosechem
Ground feedback for strong Regional party, ruling in a large State till Ph-4.
मध्य और दक्षिण में half!
उत्तर और पश्चिम में साफ!!
No wonder they are now desperate and hv resorted to rigging & violence in M dominated booths.....
🤣😂🤣😂
@Antardrshti
@bong_politics
@bosechem
If this can happen in an assembly constituency with >55% M population in Bashirhat Lok sabha, then one can estimate the levels of anti incumbency.
@Antardrshti
@bong_politics
@thepheonixguy
West Bengal results will be stunning. Supremo will learn that media management and social media perception handling has its limits. One sided voting by Bengalis so far.
PK sensed this. Hence on TV, he mentioned BJP wud surprise everyone in WB.
Hooliganism during Panchayat polls, uncontrolled extortion, cut money etc has pushed rural public to the wall.
Rural revolt against ruling party happened in 1967, 1977 & 2009.
@Antardrshti
@bipbhat
Travelled to interior Malda, Birbhum, Raiganj last week.
Armchair pollsters suggesting o/way consolidation of Ms towards TMC wud be stunned with final nos.
Anti incumbency against TMC is real. Such levels were last experienced against Left in 2009/11.
@Antardrshti
@bipbhat
In WB, it takes a minimum of 30 years and lot of sacrifices to crack this "puzzle".
Left took 30 years (1947-77), D!d! took 34 (1977-2011).
In both cases, perseverence was the key.
@AbhishBanerj
@MandarSawant184
BJP's vote share in Bengal stuck at 39% since 2021
Seems every Bengali who was favorable to BJP has already voted BJP
Meanwhile, BJP's attacks on TMC are consolidating anti-BJP votes in favor of TMC!
Assam & Odisha turned into BJP bastions ... but Bengal remains a puzzle.
In such case, 2024-29 will be like 1999-04. BJP losing in in almost all State polls.
And in 2028, the luxury of MP/Raj/CG sweep will not be there.
@Antardrshti
BJP got 61% H vote in '19. Fell to 57% in '21, mainly due to induction of corrupt TMC ldrs & sidelining local BJP cadre, who chose to sit at home on voting day
TMC got 85% M vote in '19, slightly rising by 2-3% in '21
Real hit was shift of ~5% CPM/INC "secular H/M" to TMC in '21
UP voteshare trends
BJP/NDA = 43.4%
INDI alliance = 44.2%
This is in lok sabha.
Clearly, non Yadav OBCs hv shifted from BJP.
Expect a bloodbath in 2027.
There can be only 2 possibilities:
Either
Cong is getting convinced that their alliance with AAP is becoming a liability with zero gains in Delhi & Punjab.
Or
Alka Lamba is next in line after Radhika Khera.
Police officer takes to brutal slapping of an unconfirmed party worker, possibly TMC after the latter took to trouble mongering & intimidation near a booth at Berhampore. Video by White Politics (Facebook)
They haven't heard od West Bengal elections during 80s, 90s & 10s.......when there was no social media, whatsapp.
Voter intimidation, political ki11ings, scientific r1gging, etc...
In that way, one should appreciate Didi's tenacity for taking on the Left single handedly.
West Bengal is not for Twitter Beginners.
Even we get scared inspite of having seen so many ruthless elections here full of bloodshed,
It's natural for others to get scared as if nothing's going well on seeing random incidents of violence. 🙏
More then the "expected plan of action" by members of INDI alliance, stand of D!di indictes her nervousness and inevitabilty of the outcome.
@Antardrshti
@bipbhat
All senior leaders of the INDIA alliance have been called by Congress to stay in Delhi till tomorrow night or day after tomorrow morning. West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee has also taken a positive stand on this. A meeting will be held after the election results. If the number of
Hv you talked to ppl on the ground or tweeting based on Twitter/FB/Media?
There's huge anti incumbency in G Kolkata. Only saving grace for TMC is weak organisation of BJP here.
But in 2019, BJP won seats where their presence was practically 0.
2021 & 2024 are different
@A_G951
As of now, it is reverse.
M votes are splitting whereas Hs consolidating.
There are indications that a small % of disgruntled Ms are shifting to Left-Cong.
@Antardrshti
@Sanju_996
@bosechem
@Antardrshti
Expected margin in Krishnanagar?
Personally, I'm bearish on this seat because the Left has gained ground in Hindu-majority cities in the last municipal election, which will erode the anti-Mamata vote, while the Muslim votes are unlikely to split.
Instead of going into macro vote%, go for micro.
1) Get assembly wise +/- vote% for the lok sabha seat.
2) Check demographics, strength of party in each assembly segment.
Then you can hv a fair idea on who gets the advantage of lower/higher turnout.
@MandarSawant184
@bosech
I have checked voting % in Rajasthan (12 seats) and Maharashtra (5 seats) and while voting percentages have fallen as compared to 2014 and 2019, they are like 6-16% higher than in 2009 when the BJP voter actually sat home or voted Congress.
Hence not much truth to the fact that
@SubradipP
@bosechem
@Antardrshti
I think this election itself is make or break. If she loses this election badly then it's game over for her. Just like it was game over for com after 2009 election.
2nd para.......Then u are unaware of the ground realities in the State.
Only Kolkata seats are an exception.
It's up to BJP to grab this godsent opportunity.
@ViratHindu24
@Antardrshti
@jugan
Some BJP supporters frequently put questions to me that same things were being communicated from ground in bengal then why results went other way.
I think Demography + Kolkata + S24 is stopping BJP from getting 25-30 Lok Sabha Seats is my take and BJP would reach 21-22 LS.
Add to that:
Force BJP MPs to spend 70% of their time in their respective constituencies. Ask for a monthly report on their performances.
@Sootradhar
@bosechem
@narendramodi
Now that the results are out. Urge you to do course correction:
1) Stop depending on the Bureaucracy= Work towards lateral entry of professionals = Educated Middle Class.
2) Focus only on the Economy = MEA of India must not double up as MFA Russia. We need
Looking the sheer desperation of the libbie / woke gang regarding Lok sabha 2024 results, it appears SOROS has given them an ultimatum - "इस बार भी यदि RahulG नहीं जीता, तो कसम से, आप लोग का funding हमेशा के लिए बंध!!"
Sandeskhali stings will NO WAY affect voting. It'll just make good headlines.
Else, Narada sting wud hv been the Waterloo for TMC in 2016. It was aired bang in the mid of 2016 WB assembly polls, and Left-INC was giving a tough fight then.
@bong_politics
@Antardrshti
@bosechem
Exactly 99% people already decided whom to vote
They don't change their preferences by any fake issue or fake narrative in Social media or by godi youtubers
@sahil_vi
@Antardrshti
22-25 is realistic. Anything beyond 28 is impossible this time. Even at their peak of power(in terms of vote %), no party/alliance have won more than 35 seats in WB at least in the last 50yrs. So, no chance of 38 to BJP. BJP can win over 30 only after it wins the state assembly
The common thread from the verdict in Uttar Pradesh and Odisha, despite one going against the BJP and other rewarding the saffron party is one: keep bureaucracy and police in check and give elected MPs and MLAs real power to serve the people.
Awadh & Purvachal fiasco has to be thoroughly introspected. Take a leaf out of D!d!'s method.
Post 2019 LS shock, she took direct feedback from local ldrs of EACH assembly seat to know the ground realities/grievances. Then she went for course correction - Laxmi bhandar, IP
@C
etc
This is an interesting thread.
Out of 5 big states - UP, Bihar, Bengal, Tamilnadu, Maharashtra
Only Bihar has voted for NDA
Bihar needs special care & love from New Govt
Ph-4 & 5 holds key.
Till now polling was in BJP strongholds, barring Murshidabad & Jangipur.
Now the real fight begins. Will update after getting full feedback, both from local BJP as well as TMC ldrs.
@SathappanV2029
TMC goons are today working overtime in trying to rig but BJP along with Central Forces are foiling their attempts everytime. Visuals from Durgapur where they came with a gang to cause trouble but was sent back.
Krishnanagar - Yes
South Kolkata - No
In fact, BJP had won Krishnanagar seat earlier during 1999 Lok sabha polls.
South Kolkata is a TMC bastion, just like Surat seat for BJP.
@Goldenb56025661
Visit interior villages of WB. You'll be stunned with the feedback!!
I doubt C voter staff has visited a single village in interior Bengal.
Kolkata wokes on TV & Twitter do not represent the State. We learnt this in '67, '77, '09 & '19.
@ViratHindu24
@Antardrshti
@bipbhat
If C Voter survey is to be believed then Adhir Chowdhury is losing the loksabha election as according to their survey the Congress party is getting Zero seats from Bengal.
I had predicted Yusuf Pathan winning from Behrampore Loksabha Seat.
There is no major anti incumbency against Mamata at least in greater Kolkata region if there is any anti incumbency out GK that will be off set by organization & muscle power for example in Hooghly TMC is winning
TMC district president Apurba Sarkar is failed to retain Hindu votes - claims TMC MLA Humayun Kabir.
Internal clash of party is in full display!
On June 4 it will get more clear who did Sabotage whom ?
To begin with, start a universal basic wage program by transferring Rs.5-6k/month to lady members of BPL families.
Backend infrastructure is already available.
Just see impact in the entire country.
@Antardrshti
@Sootradhar
@bosechem
Friday column:
The 2024 Campaign is over, a day to go for exit polls. After travelling across the country, What are my TEN key takeaways from an election campaign that has seen a lot of heat, very little light. Read each takeaway carefully including a post-script that could give
Itahar MLA and president of TMC minority win Mosharaf Hossain has said ,"Migrant workers aren't coming. In my assembly 28k didn't come . Our expectation was 50k lead. Impossible now."
Itahar is Muslim dominated and has recorded the lowest turn out among all VS of Balurghat PC
Even if BJP comes back in a coalition, all reformist policies, 100-days program etc etc will now be on the back burner.
I doubt Modiji will agree to head a coalition Govt. Now i comprehend the reasons for PM meeting NiKu yesterday.
Exactly 5 days back (31st night) I had a bad dream.
In my dream, I saw Modiji giving a farewell speech on DD channel. On waking up next day, I had a hearty laugh and brushed it aside.
Now I guess it was a premonition.
@Antardrshti
@Sootradhar
@AryamanBharat
This coming Saturday I shall vote for the BJP candidate for Lok Sabha, ( East Delhi), Fmr Deputy Mayor Harsh Malhotra. He has a good record of service to public, and deserves to be Lok Sabha MP. I live in East Nizamuddin.
Then you r unaware of Greater Kolkata voting pattern.
NonBongs (Gujjus, Marwaris, Punjabis, Bihar/UPites etc) are rock solid behind TMC. Originally they were pro Cong, shifting allegiance, post 2000. Check TMC leads in areas of Central & N Kolkata during 2019 & 2021.
@Sootradhar
@SudhanidhiB
Very few Hindi speakers actually vote for TMC
They will never disclose this when asked
This meeting should be to seek their help monitory or physical
BTW, disaster struck Atalji led NDA on this very day, 20 years ago. Didi was a part of NDA, then.
I vividly remember the stunning reverses that were trickling in.
In Kolkata, both BJP & TMC offices wore a deserted look, with Left sweeping in TMC strongholds of Greater Kolkata.
All senior leaders of the INDIA alliance have been called by Congress to stay in Delhi till tomorrow night or day after tomorrow morning. West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee has also taken a positive stand on this. A meeting will be held after the election results. If the number of
Sir,
But it's also a fact that INDI alliance was way ahead in all social media (instagram, X, FB, WA) platforms. It was our forte till 2019. And that matters to all social groups & youth.
We sincerely hope corrective action is taken b4 its too late.
@amitmalviya
@Sootradhar
The Congress will stay out of power for another 5 years. That would make it 15 years in a row. And they are celebrating it. Classic case of cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face…
The Congress has also lost the opportunity to whine endlessly about the EVMs and create chaos.
Highly exaggerated vote share for BJP.
1) Left-INC won't go below 12-14%. Even in 2021, they polled 10%.
2) If BJP actually gets 57.14%, they would win 38-40 seats.
@bloody_media
In 2004, Atalji won by 2.15L votes
In contrast, Modiji managed to retain his seat by a mere 1.3L votes.
This is the worst electoral performance by any PM candidate since 1975.
Whereas I consider him the best among PMs till date.
PS. RahulG wins Rai Bareilly by 4.0L+ votes
BTW, Cong would find is extremely difficult to handle & take on an "accomodative Modi", post 2024.
Handling a "dictator Modi" during 2014-24 was much easier.
Ph-4 & 5 holds key.
Till now polling was in BJP strongholds, barring Murshidabad & Jangipur.
Now the real fight begins. Will update after getting full feedback, both from local BJP as well as TMC ldrs.
@SathappanV2029
One important matter missed by all analysts.
Performace of local MPs matter a lot. And in 2024, it has become a deciding factor. The perfomance of most BJP MPs was pathetic to say the least.
UP, WB are the biggest examples.
Ayodhya ( Faizabad constituency ) Hindu population is 84.75 % and yet BJP candidate is trailing badly and he may lose also
Wow Hindus what a return gift you have given to Modiji for giving us Ramjanmabhoomi
Shame on Us as a community 😡
Latest figures for Maharashtra Phase 1 voting shows 63.25%
Now the difference has reduced for 4 seats while Chandrapur has exceeded 2019 voting %
Nagpur : -0.45%
Gadchiroli : -0.72%
Chandrapur : +2.68%
Bhandara Gondia : -3.91%
Ramtek : -1.3%
Upward revision is still possible
@5Forty3
Dear Sir,
5forty3 site isn't opening. I guess it's a tad unfair to your paid subscribers. I hope you'll take corrective measures to rectify the site as inaction will only fuel mistrust.
Regards
My reading is that OPS/Agnivir wasn't the factor. It was rebels who did BJP in.
Cong gained only 1.9% whereas BJP lost 5.8%. The remaining 3.9% VS loss was rebel factor & anti incumbency.
Historically in HP, Cong&BJP used to swap voteshares. 42-43% for winner & 37-38% for loser
Ofocourse Himachal is a set back for us in the short run and more for people and governance in the long run.
OPS is one curse that will come to haunt everyone; bad economic must never take precedence over electoral compulsions and kudos to BJP for sticking to that
Bong voters from Purba bongo.....whose parents experienced 1947 partition.
Remember, BJP's vote share shot to 12% during 1991 polls, from a meagre 2% in 1989.
BJP has lost both seats in Manipur to Cong. Matter of time that the CM will also switch sides.
BJP at 17% now, 3rd in terms of voteshare, a huge drop from 51% in 2019.
Cong rises from 28% to 48%.
@Antardrshti
@bosechem
@bosechem
@ViratHindu24
@Antardrshti
@bipbhat
Sir what’s ur range after visiting bengal.. as i have followed ur predictions at the time 2021 elx .. ur said that ur initial prediction of under 100 for bjp but swayed away by pollsters wrong predictions that bjp is growing ..
‘Churches destroyed’ in Manipur consolidated the Christian and Muslim minorities in South Goa but ‘Ram Mandir’ built in Ayodhya could not consolidate the Hindus in Ayodhya itself.