This is probably a stupid question, but was anyone within AI safety on the record saying, pre-2020, that once we had GPT-3-level AI (i.e. capable of writing computer code across a wide range of programming languages at the level of a human novice, without being explicitly programmed to do so), it would be five or more years before we got superintelligence?

"Multiple stage fallacy" Motte: any calculation that involves assuming independence while multiplying unconditional probabilities, without first demonstrating independence Bailey: any multi-step reasoning process that Eliezer Yudkowsky disagrees with

RT @liz_love_lace: CFAR should add another rationality technique, it can be described in one line: "hungry? eat some food". Unreasonably ef…

Given that CFAR’s now working in Prague, and given what’s going on with the Zizians, I’m worried about another Defenestration of Prague.

How economic forecasting works: whenever a flock of ravens lands on top of the Fed, that means there will be a recession soon. That's because whenever the Fed announces that a flock of ravens has landed on top of the Fed, everyone sells their stocks.

@HephaistosF Discipline, community, and action are not things that deplete. They only get stronger the more you use them.

@LocBibliophilia We should never let a good crisis go to waste.

It's possible to mobilize a mass movement quickly. Many mass movements have mobilized quickly in the past. What we need to do is act like it's possible.

I'm planning a Pause AI protest in Boston on February 28, and I'd appreciate all the support I can get. Is anyone willing to participate, donate, help plan, etc.?

@perrymetzger Then how come I’ve seen strong pro-resilience messages from Kat Woods etc. within AI safety?

@perrymetzger What is your argument that AI will not kill us all?

@perrymetzger Give me one specific example of how this supposed “reverse cognitive therapy” is performed

@perrymetzger What makes you think you know more about AI existential risk than Geoffrey Hinton does?

@perrymetzger What psychological meltdown? And why is that not a reasonable response to the scope of the risks if we assume the risks to be real?

@perrymetzger OK, so you're saying that EA has fallen thoroughly into the cult attractor? If so, are you currently working on founding an organization working on the things EA is supposed to work on, but putting more effort into not being a cult?

@perrymetzger Why isn't devoting your life to existential risk a reasonable course of action if these risks are real?