15/15 Any linguistic and sentimental analysis shows that Trump is trying to win over Putin—just as Putin once tried to win over Trump. The 2nd thread will follow soon.

12/15 Peace negotiations require that the aggressor be present at the table—if the aggressor has not been defeated. That means engaging in a respectful conversation, not shouting ultimatums. In this regard, Trump follows standard diplomatic logic.

11/15 he coalition supporting Ukraine has come to a hard conclusion: Defeating Russia militarily would require sacrifices that Western societies are not prepared for. And Ukraine can no longer carry the human burden of war alone.

10/15 And the U.S. itself is changing, as noted above. Today’s Washington is drawing closer to Moscow not for Europe’s sake, but for its own. Perhaps even to spite Europe.

8/15 In a way, Trump is attempting to do exactly that—when he calls Putin before he calls Zelensky. But he is doing it too late. Russia has changed—likely irreversibly, at least for the foreseeable historical future.

6/15 The tactic is simple: "Use force, then become indispensable for resolving the consequences." But never before has this tactic been applied so bluntly, so openly under the cover of nuclear weapons, and never has it been so readily accepted.

5/15 Here, Putin’s long-standing theory is vindicated—a theory reminiscent of Francisco Franco’s strategy for breaking out of international isolation: "We will stand firm where we are, and they will bend to us."

4/15 In Trump’s latest report on his conversation with Putin, war agains Ukraine is framed as just another common enemy or disaster —akin to COVID or terrorism—that must be defeated together. But for this to happen, American politics itself would need to undergo rapid change.

3/15 Such a comparison would be very flattering for Putin. Paradoxically, Putin has achieved this goal in a way he likely never intended—by becoming the West’s common enemy himself.

2/15 ...overriding political and ideological barriers. For example, the permanence of power and issues of repression in Russia—just like how the Western Allies and Stalin did during World War II and afterward divided the world.

14/14 …into those who want endless war, believing peace is only possible after Ukraine’s full defeat, and those who see Trump as a chance to end the war with gains—Putin is still in the second camp. For now.