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Waiting on regression to the mean. Contributor to @CrawfishBoxes . Stats, graphs, and gifs.
Austin, TX
Joined July 2011
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Astros Revenge Tour
- White Sox (2005) ✔️
- Red Sox (2018) ✔️
- Braves (late 1990’s)
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Remember when the Astros rotation was Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, and Lance McCullers Jr.? Those were good times.
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Player of the game in my book: Cristian Javier.
2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, saved the Astros' bacon tonight.
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A blast from the past: Astros lineup against the Cardinals on 7/9/06.
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Never forget that James Click acquired Yainer Díaz, Phil Maton, and Mauricio Dubón for Myles Straw and Michael Papierski.
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The Astros went 1-5 at Tropicana Field this year.
The Rays are currently 1-4 at Minute Maid Park this year.
For the sake of the numbers, I'm hoping they both finish 1-5.
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Here is what the
#Astros
did today:
Acquired
RHP Zack Greinke
RHP Aaron Sanchez
RHP Joe Biagini
OF Cal Stevenson
C Martin Maldonado
OF Rainier Rivas
OF Raider Uceta
Sent
1B Seth Beer
INF Josh Rojas
RHP JB Bukauskas
RHP Corbin Martin
C Max Stassi
INF Tony Kemp
OF Derek Fisher
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653
Astros record through 11 games in the last three seasons
2021: 6-5
2020: 6-5
2019: 6-5
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73
603
Spencer Arrighetti, Hunter Brown, and J.P. France against the Braves: 3.60 ERA (15 innings).
This sweep wasn't their fault.
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The Astros offense has the highest contact rate (79.1%) and lowest strikeout rate (20.2%) in baseball.
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479
George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve, y’all! Back to back to back!
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The Astros have survived for this long without breaking the bank for Cole, Springer, Correa, etc. due to having a strong pipeline.
That pipeline, however, has considerably weakened. Can't let Kyle Tucker walk following 2025 and expect it to remain business as usual.
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Michael Brantley as an Astro (1,666 PA):
42 HR
215 R
192 RBI
.305/.365/.463
127 wRC+
8.6 fWAR
Uncle Mike played in the ALCS or World Series in four of his five seasons with Houston (didn't in 2022 due to injury earlier that season). What a freaking run.
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Talk about salt in a wound...
Top 3 Hitters at MMP in 2023
Yainer Díaz - 164
Yordan Alvarez - 144
Chas McCormick - 144
Guess who didn't play tonight...
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An Astros Throwback
Game 6 of the 2021 ALCS
A strike ‘em, throw ‘em out double play!
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FWIW, Ronel Blanco's average spin rate by season in light of his ejection.
2023 to 2024
4SM: 2267 RPM -> 2196 RPM
CH: 1431 RPM -> 1504 RPM
SL: 2149 RPM -> 2082 RPM
CU: 2211 RPM -> 2271 RPM
Spin rate difference in tonight's start against the A's compared to his 2024 average:
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393
Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker in Game 3: 0-for-15.
I still think Dusty should’ve pulled LMJ once it was 4-0 Phillies, but the core of the lineup’s disappearing act played a major role.
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Something I just realized: The Astros won't have Jose Altuve at second base on Opening Day for the first time in 11 seasons.
The last second baseman not named Jose Altuve who played second base on Opening Day for Houston? Bill Hall.
Talk about a lifetime ago.
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You say to wear orange, but when will you bring this back?
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Of all the trades by Jeff Luhnow, acquiring Ryan Pressly is definitely at the top of the list.
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Call me biased, but I still think this game-ending double play against the Cardinals in the G4 of the 2005 NLCS remains one of the best I’ve ever watched.
That throw by Adam Everett, in particular, was *chef’s kiss*.
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The Astros should go back to these uniform tops without a second thought.
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I beg to disagree.
The #⃣1⃣best finish of the year is....
Adam Frazier and George Kirby sealing an incredible 7- run comeback, to secure an ALDS trip for the
@Mariners
!
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3K
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You know it’s a good pitch when a pitcher does this to Yuli Gurriel, who has a 6.7% swinging strike rate for his entire major league career.
Kodai Senga, Ghost Fork. 👻🍴
Yuli Gurriel, Ghost Bat.
Senga's 1st Career MLB K.
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This man better not hear one freaking boo at MMP.
AJ Hinch on returning to Minute Maid Park Monday: “The Houston fans have been incredible to me. Both before the sign-stealing, after the sign-stealing when I was the manager there..It’s home for me. That city matters to me..Obviously, it’ll be very emotional when I see ‘em.”
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2K
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281
Ryan Pressly since joining the Astros at the trade deadline in 2018:
- 162 2/3 IP
- 636 total batters faced
- 33.6% K
- 5.5% BB
- 2.21 ERA
- 2.28 FIP
Yes, reliever performance is generally volatile, but this is an extension you take every single time.
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Yuli Gurriel in July:
.398/.427/.837, 12 HR, 31 RBI, 232 wRC+
Gerrit Cole in July:
34 IP, 130 TBF, 13.5 K/9, 1.85 ERA, 2.92 FIP
Yordan Alvarez in July:
.333/.419/.627, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 178 wRC+
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The three-headed monster in the Astros bullpen
(2022-23 stats)
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274
Smart baseball move: Re-sign Gerrit Cole
Smart business move: Re-sign Gerrit Cole
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260
Astros Hitters by wRC+ (>20 PA)
1. Jose Altuve (217)
2. Yordan Alvarez (190)
3. Kyle Tucker (156)
4. Yainer Díaz (146)
5. Jeremy Peña (139)
6. Jake Meyers (114)
7. Jon Singleton (103)
8. Alex Bregman (89)
9. Chas McCormick (87)
10. Mauricio Dubón (76)
11. José Abreu (3)
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Ryan Pressly, with the Big Boy curveball
3113 RPM
54 inches of vertical break
Mercy.
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I may not know much, but I think whiffing on an 88 MPH cutter thrown here is probably more important than the back of a baseball card.
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17 years ago today, the Astros clinched their first-ever pennant, but the club’s only one in the NL.
Shoutout to Roy Oswalt for his tremendous start in Game 6 of the NLCS when he held the Cardinals to one run across seven innings.
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I’ll give credit when it’s due and Dana Brown signing Victor Caratini was the Astros best decision of the offseason.
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An Astros Throwback:
Richard Hidalgo, Opening Day 2000 against the Pirates (3-for-4, 2B, HR, 5 RBI).
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So, let’s do some quick accounting:
- José Abreu: $58.5 million
- Rafael Montero: $34.5 million
- Josh Hader: $95 million
Yeesh.
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The final out of both Astros no-hitters against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Good times.
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FWIW, James Click acquired Mauricio Dubón for Michael Papierski.
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#Astros
record through 113 games:
2017: 71-42
2018: 71-42
Keep in mind that the overall competition in the AL West has improved quite a bit this year.
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Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti becoming reliable starters in recent weeks has been a revelation for the Astros.
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178
#Astros
Yordan Alvarez in his first 174 career plate appearances:
14 home runs, 197 wRC+
Albert Pujols in his first 174 career plate appearances:
14 home runs, 189 wRC+
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172
#Astros
lineup five years ago on July 4, 2013
2B Jose Altuve
3B Brett Wallace
C Jason Castro
1B Chris Carter
DH Carlos Pena
LF Marc Krauss
CF Brandon Barnes
RF Jimmy Paredes
SS Jake Elmore
Happy 4th everyone!
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Honestly, George Springer deserves more attention than he is receiving.
.292/.378/.592, 38 HR, 94 RBI, 154 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR
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FWIW, Pedro León has recorded only two strikeouts since April 24th, or 33 plate appearances. He had 26 in his prior 84 plate appearances.
We need more of a sample to determine if this recent improvement at the plate is a blip on the radar or something more meangingful.
Either
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Someone find and return this version of Cristian Javier. Please and thank you.
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164
There aren’t many shortstops with a better arm than Carlos Correa.
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158
So, with Abraham Toro now gone, who is the next infielder on the dep…oh, no.
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This is what happens when you have an entire starting rotation on the IL and did little to nothing to address depth.
That’s on Jim Crane and Dana Brown.
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164
Here is a stat worth remembering:
Evan Gattis had 11 triples in 2015.
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Can the Astros retire the “Space City” city connects and bring back the Tequila Sunrise?
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MLB proposed that, beginning with the first pitch of the game, Club Personnel may not print any Scouting Information for the purposes of providing it to On-Field Club Personnel during the game. (Ex. No Club employees can print and deliver information mid-game to the dugout)
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153
Yainer Diaz, before his four-hit game tonight:
.246/.267/.435, 86 wRC+
After:
.286/.300/.486, 111 wRC+
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12
152
Jake Meyers needs to play every single game until further notice.
4
1
153
Kyle Tucker since his return to the majors:
6x19, 4 R, 1 HR, 3 XBH, 1 BB:5 K
.316 BA, 157 wRC+
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12
141
If you told me back in March that the following four starters would have these kind of results in early May, I would have felt really good about the season.
Cristian Javier - 1.54 ERA
Justin Verlander - 2.08 ERA
Ronel Blanco - 2.09 ERA
Framber Valdez - 3.97 ERA
But when these
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#Astros
record through 69 games in the past three seasons
2017: 46-23
2018: 44-25
2019: 46-23
Very nice!
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142
Astros in one-run games
2022: 28-16
2023: 20-21
2024: 1-9
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148
One of the worst losses of the season. Using Hector Rondon over Collin McHugh was the biggest head scratcher to me.
10
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145
For the record, Will Harris didn’t throw a bad pitch to Howie Kendrick in Game 7. It was honestly a terrific swing by Kendrick.
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139
Here's something to remember about the World Series:
The Rays (37.2%) and Yankees (35.8%) were among the top-six teams in terms of shifting in the regular season. The Nationals were 27th at 14.3%.
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Can confirm.
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142
This was a very, very good trade.
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131
@GerritCole45
@Chandler_Rome
Thanks for two great seasons on the mound here in Houston! Best to you and your family in any future endeavors.
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Again, speed is overrated and useless with these kind of routes.
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135
The Astros should lose their arbitration case against George Springer 100 out of 100 times.
3
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126
Y’all forgot Hunter Brown…
75 1/3 IP
3.35 ERA
3.30 FIP
34.1 % K%
1.8 fWAR (leads all rookie pitchers)
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131
An Astros Throwback
Octavio Dotel from 2001-03:
- 289.1 IP
- 2.33 ERA
- 2.65 FIP
- 31% K%
- 9.1% BB%
- 7.8 fWAR
9
5
131
Brandon Bielak, J.P. France, and Ronel Blanco as starters for the Astros:
• 11 GS
• 59 1/3 IP
• 20.5% K
• 7.8% BB
• 3.49 ERA
• 5.19 FIP
• 4.28 xFIP
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Yeah, just take my money at this point...
ICYMI: 2024 MLB Batting Practice Caps — Distinct from Spring Training Caps — Begin to Emerge
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An old one, but still fun to remember:
Triples by Evan Gattis as an Astro
2015: 11
2016: 0
2017: 0
2018: 0
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Astros offense in the 2017 postseason
.315 wOBA, .338 xwOBA
Astros offense in the 2018 postseason
.362 wOBA, .326 xwOBA
Astros offense in the 2019 postseason
.288 wOBA, .332 xwOBA
Luck is the uncontrollable factor in the postseason. Oh, along with the actual baseball.
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As a reminder, the Rays didn't win 96 games by accident. They're really good. By the same logic, the Astros are also really good as they won 107 games. Game 5 ought to be fun.
Is fun the right word?
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My unsolicited advice to the Astros: Use those savings to extend Kyle Tucker.
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Sitting Chas following an off day with a lefty on the mound on Friday and taking the bat out of his hands in a critical moment late tonight...Complete and utter nonsense.
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Honestly, I really hope Zack Greinke has a good start tonight. I want him to have a positive moment in the postseason as he hasn't deserved any of the crap tossed his way.
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On the bright side, I’ll be a dad tomorrow. No matter what happens with anything else, tomorrow is going to be a pretty awesome day!
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Notice the difference...
2022 Astros: .248/.319/.424, 112 wRC+, 78.6% Contact%
2023 Astros: .244/.315/.379, 94 wRC+, 77.9% Contact%
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