Jussi Askola, CFA
@askjussi
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CEO Leonberg Capital • Write #1 REIT newsletter on Seeking Alpha • I share my thoughts on the latest REIT investment opportunities.
Free Research👉
Joined September 2020
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My REIT newsletter, High Yield Landlord, is about to turn 6 years old and I figured that this would be a good time to reflect on our past successes and failures:
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My biggest investment is $RICK. I believe that it could 3x your money over the coming 5 years. Here's why:
A thread👇👇👇
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My biggest new investment is $PAX. I believe that it could 3x your money over the coming 5 years. Here's why:
A thread👇👇👇
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Something incredible but often overlooked about $RICK is that they are able to boost the cash flow of their newly acquired clubs by 15-20% by improving their operations. That's very significant when you consider that they are only paying 3-5x EBITDA for the assets.
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Germany's biggest landlord $VNA is priced at a 70% discount to its net asset value. Its share price would need to 3x just to reach its net asset value.
Sounds too good to be true?
A thread 👇👇👇
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Just a friendly reminder that Germany's biggest landlord $VNA is still priced at a 70% discount to its net asset value. It owns a portfolio of affordable apartment communities that's recession-resistant and we are buying it.
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My biggest investment is still $RICK. I believe that it could 3x your money over the coming 5 years.
I just recently visited a few of their assets and met with their management team. Here are my findings:
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My biggest investment for 2023 is $RICK. I believe that it could 3x your money over the coming 5 years and I just posted an update to my clients.
Here are some highlights from it👇👇👇
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My brother
@joni_askola
just returned from Ukraine. He went there with the
@69thSB
to deliver 13 trucks to Ukrainian soldiers. Two of these trucks were fundraised by High Yield Landlord and had its logo. Follow my brother to stay up to date with what's happening in Ukraine!
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My biggest foreign investment is $VNA and I just recently bought more shares. Here's why:
A thread👇👇👇
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One of the most rewarding REITs of all-time is $ARE.
It has outperformed $BRK.B, $WMT, and most tech companies since going public, and that's despite taking relatively little risk.
How did it achieve these returns? 🧵👇👇
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Ever wondered why REITs earn more than private real estate? 🤔
Here's why they outperform by 2-4% annually!
Get ready for a real estate revelation.
THREAD 🧵
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This is a friendly reminder that REIT balance sheets are the strongest they have ever been with a 35% LTV on average, which is conservative. Debt maturities are also historically long and well-staggered. Some private equity owners are overleveraged, but most REITs aren't...
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REIT valuations are today reminiscent of 2008 with large discounts to NAV according to investment firm Janus Henderson. The average discount is nearly 30%:
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$BX just defaulted on half a billion bond backed by a portfolio of mostly office buildings. Overleverage, cap rate expansion, and declining NOI could lead to negative equity values for many more office landlords. The office REIT market is pricing a crash. Is it right?
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Gladstone Land $LAND is one of just two farmland REITs. It is quite popular among individual investors, but is it a Buy today?
My thoughts 👇👇👇
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I recently sold my position in $O and reinvested the proceeds into $ADC. Their valuations are similar, adjusted for $O's higher leverage, but $ADC is a superior REIT in my opinion. Here's why:
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$SLG has the best first slide of any $REIT investor presentations right now:
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REITs generate 4% higher returns than private real estate on average. $O, as an example, has generated 15% annual returns by following a simple net lease strategy that typically wouldn't earn more than 10%. The higher returns are the result of...
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My biggest investment is $RICK and I bought the dip after it announced its Q1 results. Here's why:
A thread👇👇👇
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$WPC is down way more than the average of the REIT sector in recent months and I think that this is an opportunity. $VNQ
I am long WPC
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I am investing $10,000 into this, but we need a total of $38,600. Please help me and
@joni_askola
bring these
@69thSB
trucks to the brave Ukrainian fighters as soon as possible. Learn more here:
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We are reaffirming our Strong Buy for $CCI. We just recently bought more shares of it because it is arguably the highest-yielding blue-chip REIT. It yields nearly 5% and it is set to return to 7-8% dividend growth in two years from now.
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Did we all just overlook the fact that
@stoolpresidente
attended $RICK's recent earnings call? This is a meme stock in the making... but unlike $AMC $GME etc. it has great fundamentals as well!
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MPW just repurchased $62M of its 2.550% unsecured notes at a repurchase yield averaging almost 13%.
I think that we will see more and more REITs buy back debt at a discount in the coming quarters. This is just one more way REITs can take advantage of the dislocation.
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3 of my favorite REIT opportunities today:
1) $ARE
2) $BSRTF / $HOM.U
3) $VONOY / $VNA
All three are priced at steep discounts relative to private market values, have strong balance sheets, great track records, and grow rents.
More here:
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$VICI just announced its first international deal. It is acquiring a portfolio of Canadian casinos at an 8% cap rate. The talks of an international expansion are not just talk anymore!
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Last week, we brought another 11 cars to the Ukrainian army. Please consider donating. We are already working on the next convoy and I am matching donations:
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I am buying REITs that pay a growing >8% dividend yield at the moment. That's how cheap they have become!
Here are two of them 👇👇👇
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A quick reminder that $REITs more than doubled rapidly following the covid crash. REITs can recover just as fast as they sell off. Once we finally get inflation under control and rates return to lower levels, I expect an epic rally because rents will now remain at higher levels:
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I just bought more shares of $RICK at near all-time highs. I have bought shares as low as $15 and now as high $92. Here is why I keep buying more:
A thread👇👇👇
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Billionaire short-seller Jim Chanos on $SLG: "NYC offices, which we are short, trades at a 5% cap rate, it's leveraged massively to its cash flow and I just don't want to buy NYC office buildings at a 5% cap when the balance sheet is leveraged 15-to-1."
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$RICK just grew its normalized EBITDA by ~15% with a single deal!
My thoughts on the deal 👇
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Hey I just created a YouTube channel for $REIT investing and posted my first video. Please consider subscribing🙏
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My biggest investment is $RICK. I believe that it could 3x your money over the coming 5 years and I just released my exclusive interview with
@RicksCEO
on the free site of
@SeekingAlpha
:
A thread of my main take-aways👇👇👇
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Rental properties will hinder your lifestyle. I would much rather earn a slightly lower return from a REIT if it allowed me to travel and worry about other things that I am more passionate about. Life isn't just about money.
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(10/10) I just posted an interview with Eric Langan, CEO of $RICK. It is quite long at 6,000+ words but very insightful:
(There is a paywall, but
@SeekingAlpha
offers a 2-week free trial and won't charge you anything if you cancel in the first 14 days)
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$RICK is up 23% over the past 6 months.
$SPY is down 20% over the past 6 months.
Free cash flow finally matters...
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$VNO's CEO said back in March that their stock was "stupid cheap" at around $40 per share. Today, it trades at $22 per share.
Is it a Buy yet?
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Germany's biggest landlord $VNA is now up 22% since the beginning of the year and it just keeps on rising.
My prediction is that as inflation cools down and interest rates are eventually cut back to lower levels, $VNA will rise by another ~100% from here.
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🏡📈Realty Income $O has managed to generate 15% annual returns for its shareholders by buying Class A net lease properties with a conservative 30% LTV. Most private net lease investors would have been happy to earn a ~10% return. How is it so much more rewarding? 👇👇
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Germany's biggest landlord $VNA is up 12% since the beginning of the year and just keeps on rising.
What changed? Is the market just realizing that pricing $VNA at just 1/3 of its NAV was a mistake?🤨🤨
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I think that there is a realistic path to more than quadrupling your money in 5 years by investing in $RICK
Our latest update:
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$BAM just authorized a massive share buyback plan. It is bullish for the entire sector $KKR $BX $PAX $OWL $CG $APO
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🔥Urgent warning for REIT investors!🔥
High inflation and rising interest rates led to a 30% average drop in REITs in 2022. But a shift is coming that could lead to significant upside. Here's why:
THREAD 🧵
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It seems that all net lease REITs are reporting strong results this quarter. $EPR $VICI $EPRT etc. Glad to be heavily invested in this sector.
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$CCI now yields over 6%.
6.3% to be exact.
Is there a higher yielding blue-chip REIT?
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Expect more REIT buyouts from Blackstone. Quote from Q4 earnings call: "We think this is just the start as Blackstone Real Estate has $65 billion of dry powder to invest into this dislocated market."
Which REIT will be next?
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We are facing the worst banking crisis since the great financial crisis. Here is a quick reminder that REITs nearly tripled in less than 2 years following the crash of 2009. We can't time the market but the time to buy is when prices are down:
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📈Realty Income $O is one of the most popular REITs in the world and this is because it has managed to pay a steadily growing monthly dividend for 20+ years in a row... But it has a few problems: 👇
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The apartment portfolio of $BSRTF / $HOM.U grew rents by ~6% in Q4 according to their recent update. Occupancy also grew from 94.7% to 96%. There is still strong demand for high-quality apartments in growing sunbelt markets. Bullish for $MAA $IRT $CPT $UDR $NXRT etc.
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Interesting piece on $RICK in the Denver Business Journal. The main takeaways are that Central City could present significant additional growth opportunities for $RICK with up to 3 properties, and the Food Hall could be transformed into a replicable model for other markets... 👇
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$PSA just hiked its dividend by 50%! In a weird way, this could be a red flag as it signals that they don't have enough reinvestment opportunities and so they are switching their capital allocation policy.
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Self-made billionaires Steve Schwartzman and Jon Gray are going all-in on REITs. They run the world's largest private equity group, Blackstone $BX, and they see a golden opportunity in REITs right now. Here's why:
THREAD 🧵
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I started a YouTube channel earlier this year and got to almost 15k subscribers by covering $REITs. My favorite video is my compilation of 20 REIT CEO interviews. You can watch it here. Don't forget to Like and Subscribe :)
Link:
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REITs are flat since 2014... but real estate has gained very significant value since then. This explains why so many REITs are now priced at large discounts to NAV: $AVB $CPT $BSRTF $VNA $PLD $EGP $WSR $AHH $MAA $IRT etc.
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The most important lesson for new REIT investors is that you should think like a landlord and not like a trader. Focus on long-term prospects and the bigger picture. Don’t fixate on daily charts and worry about the next quarterly results as much.
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The ultimate proof that REITs are today discounted is the fact that REIT capital offerings are down 93% year-to-date. REITs have simply stopped selling equity because their shares are too cheap.
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(1/10) $RICK is the only publicly listed company that specializes in the ownership and management of adult nightclubs. Just like a $REIT, it buys real estate and grows organically by improving the operations of its assets, and it also grows externally by acquiring new properties.
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$RICK has returned 745% since it changed its capital allocation policy in FY16. The S&P500 $SPY returned 89% over this same time period. (01/16 - 11/22)
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(2/10) But the economics of $RICK are far superior to those of a regular $REIT because it specializes in a sector that's highly inefficient. There are few buyers (ESG...) but there are many sellers because most owners are approaching retirement age.
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$O just recently announced a near $1 billion deal at a 7.1% cap rate for high-quality net lease properties. These properties would have probably sold at closer to a 6% cap in early 2022. It is nice to see that Realty Income is able to take advantage of the current environment:
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$VNA - Cushman & Wakefield has put together a heatmap for future demand for apartments in Germany (below, on the left). It corresponds quite nicely with Vonovia’s portfolio (below, on the right), meaning that its portfolio should benefit from strong demand in the coming years.
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I am going back to Ukraine and need your help!
Please take a moment to read this:
Can the $RICK or $REIT community help with this?
Any help is highly appreciated 🙏🙏🙏
Jussi
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(3/10) $REITs will commonly buy properties at a 5-7% cap rate with limited value-add potential. In comparison, $RICK buys high-quality strip clubs at a 25-33% EBITDA yield with significant value-add potential, resulting in exceptionally large spreads and rapid external growth.
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When I am not analyzing REITs... I help bring trucks to Ukraine. Please consider helping us in our efforts:
👇👇👇👇👇
Together to victory!
🇺🇦 3rd Brigade is sending BIG gratitude to
#NAFOfellas
! This truck was bought & delivered to 🇺🇦 by
@askjussi
& + High Yield Landlord newsletter community!
#SpringIsComing
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$VNA rose from €15 to €27 as the market started to expect rate cuts. How much will it rise if and when rates are "actually" cut? Its NAV is still around €50 and historically, it has traded at a small premium to it during most times.... Interesting times to own Vonovia!
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My brother,
@joni_askola
, has joined forces with the
@69thSB
to raise funds for a crucial truck for the 47th mechanized brigade in Ukraine. Currently, 67% of the necessary funds have been gathered. Your support would be greatly appreciated! For more details and to contribute,
Here's your opportunity to stand with Ukraine! We've reached 64% of our goal and need just over 6000 euros to hit the target. Thanks to all who have contributed, and let's complete this fundraiser! Any donation helps! Further details in the link below:
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Self-storage $REITs have been some of the most rewarding investments of all-time, generating near-20% annual total returns for the past 28 years. Here is my top pick in this sector:
Relevant to $PSA $EXR $CUBE $LSI $NSA $SELF
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$EPR just told us that they hope $AMC will file for bankruptcy to fix their balance sheet. They believe that their lease would remain intact, but the market is still pricing EPR at a large discount due to fears of AMC.
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I am surprised that $VNA rose by only 3.65% today after announcing a €1 billion JV sale to $APO at near its net asset value. If Apollo is willing to pay this much, many other investors will as well. A strong vote of confidence!
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John Case, former CEO of $O, is joining the board of $EPR. That's great news for EPR in my opinion.
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REITs have outperformed various private equity real estate investment vehicles by 2-4% on average according to this study by EPRA. This is just the average of the REIT sector. Many individual REITs have done even better. $O, as an example, has generated 15% annual returns.
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Looking for REITs that will likely hike their dividends soon? 💰 I got you covered! Here are 5 juicy prospects you should keep on your radar. Buckle up, it's about to get interesting. THREAD🧵
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🚨SCAM ALERT! A lot of REIT management teams take advantage of their shareholders. One of the best examples is $GNL. It has consistently issued new shares and heavily diluted its shareholders to grow the portfolio and earn higher fees. Avoid these REITs at all costs! Here's how👇
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Vonovia’s rent growth is accelerating, debt maturities are mostly addressed till 2025, more asset sales will soon likely be announced, but the market is impatient.
$VNA
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We just had the 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in US history and it all happened in just a few days.
Believe it or not, this could actually benefit REITs because the market is now starting to price lower interest rate expectations.
We are buying the dips.
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@lavern_spicer
By helping Ukraine, you help yourself. They are defending the entire free world. How hard is it to understand this??
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$RICK is earning phenomenal returns by buying, improving, and managing strip clubs, which are moated, highly profitable, and recession-resistant assets.
More here:
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REIT M&A continues. $RC is set to acquire $BRMK at a 41% premium - which again demonstrates that many REITs are severely discounted.
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My biggest investment is still $RICK. I believe that it could 3x your money over the coming 5 years.
Here's why:
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I am going to Ukraine and need your HELP!
PLEASE LIKE & RETWEET & DONATE
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(23/23) Please consider liking, commenting and retweeting. Finally, we have a lot more research on $VNA at High Yield Landlord:
(There is a paywall, but
@SeekingAlpha
offers a 2-week trial and won't charge you anything if you cancel in the first 14 days)
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👉Barry Sternlicht, CEO of Starwood Capital, recently talked about REITs on CNBC: "There are some unbelievable bargains in REITs. We did the same thing during the pandemic. We bought a dozen stocks all over the world and we had a 70% IRR on that stuff."
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$ARE might be my favorite REIT to accumulate right now.
What are you buying?
👇👇
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Is $ARE really trading down because of the WeWork bankruptcy?
ARE just hiked its guidance. It is guiding to grow its FFO per share by 7% this year. Fantastic balance sheet. 25% LTV, 13-year average debt term, and only 7-year lease terms with below market rents. So well
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$RICK expects to grow its FCF per share by 30% in 2022, and he thinks that it will likely grow by another 30% in 2023. Yet, the company is priced at less than 10x FCF. How many companies do you know that are so cheap and growing so rapidly? More here:
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📈🏡Realty Income $O has earned 15% average annual returns since going public. You can watch my interview with a company insider on my Youtube channel:
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Right now, the office $REIT sector is the cheapest property sector relative to private market valuations. Or put differently... the private office market is perhaps the most expensive relative to office $REITs.
This is relevant to $BXP $SLG $VNO $DEI $CIO $BDN $OFC $CUZ $KRC
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I don't think that it is possible to time the market, but it really wouldn't surprise me if REITs return near to their ATHs as the fed cuts rates in 2024... REITs have created a lot of value over the past 2 years but this has been masked by the fears of rising rates.
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$ARE - Life science is different from office: "National life sciences properties sold in 2023 have traded at an average of $770 per square foot, which is nearly four times the $190 per square foot that national office properties..." (Source: Yardi)
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Tough quarter for $RICK. Hoping they take advantage of this by buying back a bunch of shares if the market overreacts to the short-term dip in same-property performance.
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$EPRT is one of my largest holdings because I think that its business model is very likely to generate above-average returns with below-average risk over the long run. That's what active investing is all about.
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$AMT boosted its guidance... $DLR cut it...
I continue to think cell towers > data centers
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🇫🇮🇫🇮🇫🇮
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