Ashwath
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village idiot @Delphi_Digital | tweets and opinions are my own
Joined February 2015
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Pinned Tweet
After a year's hiatus, I finally published something to my personal blog
Here's my thesis for why we're about see a new era of market behavior and structure
Retail is here, and they're going nowhere in the long-term
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Imagine having access to the top minds in crypto and choosing to have Bitboy on lmfaoooo
Ben Armstong -- also known as BitBoy Crypto -- joins Quicktake to discuss stablecoin implications on the banking and payments industry
More on its regulation here:
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0/
@SushiSwap
's evolution from yield farm to "blue chip" over the past few months has been incredible to watch
With multiple features going live this year, I wanted to lay out how Sushi is differentiating itself from
@UniswapProtocol
and what this means
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Meanwhile, Indian tech bros continue to ignore crypto, and one of the largest Indian tech companies by market cap and reputation is staking $MATIC on the
@0xPolygon
Commit Chain
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Potentially spicy take, but you can tell who understands DeFi and who doesn't from their opinion on the Uniswap frontend saga
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The pace of innovation on Terra is actually astounding
They obviously exist, but I don't see a lot of "x but on Terra" copycats
Vast majority of projects I've come across are actually doing something unique, and that's pretty mind blowing
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0/ Token incentives are a popular way to distribute ownership to people that provide a useful service
But as we've seen, some of these distributions are easy to game and are less effective in hitting their key objectives
Here's my framework for thinking about this 👇
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June 10, 2019: Ampleforth says they can't freeze anyone's tokens
Sept. 26, 2020: Ampleforth freezes someone's tokens
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Some thoughts on crypto x AI from the perspective of a tiny-brained investor:
There's been a lot of chatter around the need to decentralize AI -- not just from the crypto crowd, but also some of the most relevant AI talking heads.
The simple case for why this is important boils
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Can confirm; got hired off Twitter
Many founders aren’t hiring from Harvard. They’re hiring from Twitter.
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1/ An update on Polkadot:
In Nov 2020, we (
@Delphi_Digital
) released a report examining
@Polkadot
and interesting DeFi ideas being built on it
I've been out of touch with the ecosystem so I dove in to see what's happening
Here's what I found 👇
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I'm personally more bullish on Ethereum than any other tech, but its entertaining to see the ETH maxis rationalize why the El Salvador news is a non event.
Cope harder.
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1/ AMMs are incredibly important for DeFi.
In the past, I believed AMMs would be engulfed by more efficient and functional designs -- like orderbooks.
But more recently, I think I was looking at it all wrong.
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1/ Aggregators had a breakout year in 2020, with platforms like
@1inchExchange
and
@zapper_fi
recording significant growth
The best part? YTD numbers indicate 2021's growth is about to dwarf 2020's
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Only in crypto can you have your investment thesis invalidated and still exit at 10x your entry
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1/ It's been a hot minute since
@Uniswap
v3 launched, and there's an entire ecosystem of products now being built on top of it
There are some interesting dynamics at play with v3, and I wanted to take the chance to highlight some things that stand out 👇
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Pro tip for the new faces in DeFi:
You're better off holding the "blue chips" than listening to Twitter shills and hunting for gems. It takes some time in the market to be able to reasonably evaluate tokens.
Stick to the ones with proven PMF that already have traction
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1/ For my first Delphi Daily since joining the team at
@Delphi_Digital
, I looked into how
@iearnfinance
is expanding the scope of its vaults to enhance $YFI's value capture.
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Has anyone built a bot that counter trades the net positioning of traders on GMX? It would probably do quite well
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Possibly an unpopular opinion but I think all of DeFi indexes out there are pretty trash
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Protocols like
@MakerDAO
and
@iearnfinance
that have organically grown to billions of dollars in TVL/AUM with 0 token incentives are underappreciated
Begets a larger question: which protocols that incentivize usage via token emissions will be able to thrive once emissions stop?
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Dropped a phat post for
@Delphi_Digital
Pro subscribers on a project I consider to be one of the most ambitious in crypto:
@vegaprotocol
Will thread my key findings next week if the people demand it
Note: Delphi Ventures is an investor in Vega
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0/ Our team
@Delphi_Digital
just launched our new website and we're doubling prices for our subscriptions next week
Every analyst on our team was asked to pick one report they worked on this year to make public and share with CT
I picked the following:
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Diversifying across assets/sectors for the sake of diversification makes no sense in crypto since correlations are high
Diversifying across narratives probably makes more sense so you have exposure to whatever the market decides to love most
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0/ Lots of opinions and a few misconceptions floating around regarding the recent agreement between
@iearnfinance
and
@picklefinance
So I took the opportunity to dig deeper into this in today's Delphi Daily
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0/ For the last month, we've been looking into the emerging
@Polkadot
ecosystem to find out if it has substance or if it's just another “Ethereum Killer”
Today, we released a report outlining the basics of Polkadot and highlighting a few standout projects
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Steep increase in accumulation on $ETH
When compared to $BTC, there was no real dip in the mean dollar age for ETH during the 2019 rally indicating long term holders didn't fold
Simply put, ETH is being accumulated at a higher rate than BTC
Data from
@santimentfeed
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0/ DeFi lacks tools that give investors exposure to the space's vast financial opportunities without having to stomach the insane volatility/risk of crypto markets
In today's Delphi Daily, I explore how this is changing with ideas like
@barn_bridge
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1/ UniswapX is a liquidity aggregator that can tap into off-chain liquidity sources for on-chain execution.
To my knowledge, it's the first to explicitly allow CEX liquidity to be brought into the equation.
Why I think UniswapX changes the DEX landscape🧵
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Yes, I'm sure Lindsay Lohan is an ardent yield farmer who grew tired of paying exorbitant gas on Ethereum and suddenly realized the beauty of TRON
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Few tokens have a value capture mechanism that allows them to appreciate as the protocol grows (volume and TVL to be precise)
$RUNE is probably the leader in this aspect thanks to it's ability to directly capture growth on
@thorchain_org
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I have no desire to stare at a screen for 18 hours a day trading in and out of positions anymore
I'm happy with whatever I can take from the market without surrendering my entire life to TradingLite and DexScreener
For people in this boat, sitting on your hands doing and doing
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9/ To me, this highlights the opportunity in the
@solana
and
@terra_money
ecosystems (amongst others)
The TAM of Polkadot is higher than most other base layers, because it aims to become a hub for blockchains (like $ATOM)
But the valuation is still far too rich
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Shout out to
@FrontierDotXYZ
who I missed in this report
The project is building a cross-chain DeFi aggregator, and the team has been shipping new features and integrations non-stop
1/ Aggregators had a breakout year in 2020, with platforms like
@1inchExchange
and
@zapper_fi
recording significant growth
The best part? YTD numbers indicate 2021's growth is about to dwarf 2020's
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1/
@MakerDAO
is on track to generate >$150M in annualized revenue. The vast majority of this comes from RWAs.
Is the current approach to RWAs sound?
Are they crypto's best bet at integrating with the traditional financial system?🧵
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8/ Base layers like $SOL and $LUNA have more activity and trade at roughly 1/10th of $DOT's market cap
While this isn't an apples-to-apples comparison, it's tough to stay focused on a network whose infra isn't ready while other chains build out ecosystems with working products
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I think gaming and all of the other non-financial applications of crypto will end up catalyzing growth in DeFi
NFTs/gaming rope users into crypto networks; DeFi offers them a native financial stack for their liquidity needs
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"If you see fraud and don't shout fraud, you are a fraud"
~ Nassim Taleb
Quite ironic lol
A story short about a man whose books I enjoyed quite a lot as a young man. I’m genuinely disappointed
@nntaleb
.
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Sure they only staked 10k of their own $MATIC, but it's a start, and it's legit:
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Absolute monster of a read for
@Delphi_Digital
subscribers on key trends and narratives our team is keeping tabs on
You do not want to miss this one
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What he said
My job doesn't feel like a job. If I wasn't working at
@Delphi_Digital
I would still be doing the exact same stuff
That's pretty fucking fulfilling on its own
The vast majority of the most succesful builders in this space work 24/7 and way more than most Wall Street analysts.
Execs at most crypto companies and funds work around the clock, the main difference isn't hours, it's doing what you love doing and don't view it as work.
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Excited to announce my new venture fund after years of long term, high conviction investing
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People are saying the market is gassed based on $BTC and $ETH funding rates recently
Yes, funding is high compared to a week ago. Care to zoom out?
Funding can go bonkers once we hit uncharted territory
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Sneak peak from today's
@Delphi_Digital
daily update
$ETH options with the most trading volume today are $50k and $40k strike call options that expire in March 2022
Proof that degens exist even on KYC-ed, institutional grade exchanges?
Data courtesy of
@skewdotcom
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Starting to see why there's a passionate community of TSLA shorters
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Who's building the coolest on-chain derivatives primitives? Perps, futures, options; any L1/ L2
Nothing's off limits
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Over 3 yrs in crypto and I still have no idea how XRP accrues value
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We've built out a world class research team at
@Delphi_Digital
, and now we're hiring a full-time editor to help us continue pumping out high quality content
If you fit the bill in the job description below, we'd love to hear from you!
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1/ We’re still hiring for 2 roles at Delphi Creative — research analysts and token econ analysts
This is your chance to get in the ground floor of one of the most exciting opportunities in the space
Details below 👇
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I think about this
@FloodCapital
gem every time
@CurveFinance
comes up
> Build a giant 3CRV pool using CRV emissions
> Every stablecoin project directs incentives to build Curve liquidity
> Curve LPs benefit from sizable external incentives
> Wean off CRV emissions (eventually?)
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When I was thinking about switching from a job in equity research to crypto in 2019, one of the most appealing things was how people in crypto didn’t take themselves too seriously
(Almost) everyone was just a normal person doing stuff they genuinely wanted to do
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Probably one of the most important
@Delphi_Digital
reports this year
@FloodCapital
,
@0xdef1
, and
@jeremyongws
analyzed 100K+ rows of data to figure out how Curve v2 stacks up against Uniswap v3
The results are somewhat surprising👀
And now the report is free for all to read!
In 2022,
@CurveFinance
v2 quoted better execution prices than
@Uniswap
v3 for ~65% of all ETH/USDT transaction volume.
On
@arbitrum
, Curve Tricrypto is dominating $ETH volumes with more than 83% of total market share.
What's happening, and are the DEX Wars heating up? 🧵⬇️
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Crazy the way Blur bit into OpenSea's volume share over the last few months.
The gamified airdrop (incentive) + genuine product innovation (features users want) was a really strong combination that enabled this
Now we wait and see if this persists or was just a short term burst
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1/ Fan tokens are an important new primitive built by
@socios
to boost engagement between sports teams and their fanbases
At
@Delphi_Digital
, we wrote a research note on the benefits of these fan tokens and how they can pioneer a new age of fan interaction
Here's the summary 👇
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This is probably just me coping, but I genuinely think this is just a reset from excessive leverage and some unrealistic narratives
If true, that also probably means the cycle just lengthened by at least a quarter or two
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Buying $BTC post- ATH is actually superior than sniping the bottom from a risk adjusted lens
If you bought at $20k you're up 50% with minimal friction in between
Bottom buyers ~$4k are up almost 8x but their risk of blowing up was much higher
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Super excited to finally see $GTC on mainnet!
This is first token design I contributed to after joining the chads at
@Delphi_Digital
, and I'm glad it was for one of the most impactful projects in all of crypto
💚 Introducing GTC — The Gitcoin Governance Token
💙 Let's decentralize Gitcoin!
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This is just plain sad
$BTC is sound money, but it's not the base settlement layer for a varied, composable financial system
RSK was founded in 2014, Ethereum around the same time. One has undeniable traction, the other still downplays Ethereum
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You can basically own $YFI and $MKR knowing that you they're cash-flow generating token that aren't reliant on subsidization
IMO there's no better indication of product-market fit in DeFi
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Chart of the day via
@Delphi_Digital
Every $1 of liquidity generates around $0.2 of volume on
@Uniswap
v2
But $1 of liquidity on v3 generates between $0.8 and $1.6 (4-8x increase)
v3 changes the AMM game, and I expect it only get more efficient with passive LP vaults
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My friend is sending me academic papers on algorithmic pricing
It's 11:50 PM on NYE
Crypto folk really have no life
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If you can't buy physical gold because of the shortage, your second best bet is probably permissionless, synthetic gold with
@synthetix_io
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A year ago cross-chain DeFi wasn't even possible
Today, multi-chain deployment is one of the first questions I ask projects about
Crazy how fast this space is evolving, and I suspect L2 solutions will be next thing big thing that becomes huge before we even realize it
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0/
Corporations invest their assets to generate income on idle funds. Some like $MSTR shot to fame for investing the company's cash in $BTC.
As DeFi embraces DAOs, treasury management is evolving for decentralized organizations.
A thread 👇
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How is it that "decentralized" projects allocated a piece of their treasury to a hedge fund and nobody really knew?
Treasury mgmt is one of the things governance should decide, right?
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I've been thinking about fiscal policy within DeFi protocols. Wrote up a little something on it.
@synthetix_io
and
@terra_money
are strong examples that use fiscal policy to bootstrap adoption
@thorchain_org
's transparent treasury mgmt also stands out
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@0xtuba
Most people in crypto are much further out on the risk curve so it isn't very appealing (to lenders)
Everyone wants to ape into the junior/floating side. For it to work you need a lot of demand for the senior/fixed side which is yet to show up really
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Bruh is $XRP really pumping because veteran degens think it's going to be the retail choice during this cycle too??
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2/ Margin trading, integration incentives, cross-chain swaps, co-building yEarn's Deriswap, and new AMM model are just a few things laid out on Sushiswap's roadmap for 2021
Each of these features improves Sushiswap and $SUSHI value accrual
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Conclusions:
1.
@ZeMariaMacedo
and
@YanLiberman
have probably thought about token econ more than any two other people
2. Yan's calf muscles are sentient beings and have a life of their own
Delphi Labs is the most mysterious of Delphi’s divisions
In this episode,
@ZeMariaMacedo
and
@YanLiberman
peel back the curtain on Labs. The pair discuss:
💠Token Economics
💠The transition to building and incubation
💠Mars & Astroport
Watch here:
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11/ UX aggregators like
@zapper_fi
and
@zerion_io
are trying to be the front page of DeFi
The idea is that users will eventually use these platforms as a means of accessing everything in DeFi from a unified interface
UX aggregators could end up owning the user relationship
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Some interesting game theory was revealed as I dove further into the future of vaults and how they can become a sustainable cash flow generating vehicle for YFI holders. Read the whole Delphi Daily here!
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Taking the rest of the year off from Twitter
See you degens in 2022
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1/ First off, it's undeniable that Uniswap has more traction and individual users
But not many realize there are quite a few tokens that enjoy superior liquidity on Sushiswap
Consequently, Sushiswap is the only DEX (barring Curve) whose volumes come close to Uniswap
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If you can stomach the volatility, crypto still has the best R/R and wealth generation opportunity of any public market over the next few years
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3/ There are cultural differences in the way both operate too
Uniswap v3 will likely change the game, but nobody knows what exactly it entails barring the team and perhaps some insiders
Sushiswap on the other hand has a high level of community involvement and transparency
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NFTs can be so much more than JPEGs and MP3s and I can't wait for us to realise all of that
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13/ The nuance of this argument is tough to capture in a tweet thread, so if this piqued your interest, I recommend you check out the full post:
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So far this year, $ETH has a mean transaction count of 670,286 per day. Up almost 2x since 2017 (even after accounting for the bubble-esque surge in November and December of 2017).
#Ethereum
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The
@Delphi_Digital
Daily newsletter just got a sweet makeover!
💥Chart of the day with deep context
💥An excerpt from our topical Delphi Insights post
💥Occasionally, a section from a relevant Delphi Pro report
Check out the genesis issue here:
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10/ Further, the valuation of Polkadot projects have gotten a bit insane too
$REEF, a liquidity aggregator for Polkadot with no product yet, trades at a higher market cap than $ALPHA, which has over $700 million of TVL and generates cash flow
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Going heavy on leverage now is the stupidest thing you can do
Survive, protect your stack. When the bottom comes, that range won't go away in a few hours
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1/ Everyone ripping on DeFi in light of Celsius, 3AC, etc melting down cuz they provided liquidity in DeFi
Pooled lending exposure minimized counterparty risk. On top of that, over-collat nature killed solvency risk.
Lenders were made whole with minimal bad debt to protocols
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Or you could join a startup that's also a VC fund so you learn how organizations AND funds work simultaneously
Any clue where I can find one of those,
@Delphi_Digital
?
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.
@1inchExchange
consistently beating its own weekly volumes.
First week with $10 mn + volume ($11.334 mn)
Chart from
@DuneAnalytics
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The vaporwave farming dies when retail wisens up and stops market buying that shit hoping it's the next $YFI
Pro tip: none of them are the next YFI
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6/ The community-centric narrative around Sushiswap is great, but it's important to realize Uniswap is the one that built out this AMM tech that does billions of $ in weekly volume
Uniswap v1 was built on a $100k grant and ingenuity
AMMs are arguably DeFi's biggest innovation
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