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@arunjagtap007
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Index Trader | 0DTE Option Buyer | Micro Price Action & Traps l
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A Bold View :
Expecting ATH on NIFTY at 18900 & Eventually 20500.
The 16850 Pinpoint Defence on NIFTY is No Small Event. Market has Digested Extreme Negative Newsflow like war & Historic Inflation with A Time Correction of 18+ Months.
(Disclaimer : I may Go totally Wrong
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Bold Biew : NIFTY 1000+ Points Fall Possible. Expecting 20800 to Get Tested in Coming Days. ⭕
The Quick Upmove Of Friday to hit ATH & Immediate Brutal Selloff can't be Taken Lightly. Bears are knocking on the Door. This time with Force.
(Disclaimer : No Trade Recommendation)
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21 December 2020
20 December 2021
21 December 2022
20 December 2023
One of the Biggest Days..!
Added Today in the Achievements Section. ✨✨
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BANKNIFTY : 2500+ Points Fall Underway. 🔴
i) Breakdown Retest of 46880 happened most likely in Friday.
ii) Expecting Followup selling for Test of i) 44500 & ii) 43200 till Holds below 46900.
(Disclaimer : No Trade Recommendation)
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#ThreadOfThreads
All the Learning Threads I've shared till date in one tweet. Have Explained everything in simplest ways Possible.
This one Thread contains The knowledge you won't get even after 10 workshops.
If you Learn anything, make sure to Like & Retweet for max reach
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NIFTY just formed The NR7 Compression Candle on Friday.
What is NR7 Compression : Smallest Range Candle in Past 7 Days which Increases a Probability of Breakout.
Attaching an Example of BHEL from Recently.
Can we see Similar Breakout in NIFTY as well?
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NIFTY : Expecting A Sideways/Time Correction in a 1000 Points Range For Next Few Days.
Logics & Reasoning :
- Price Has Given 15% One sided Rally From 18850 Lows in 2 Months.
- This is Little Extended move for Major Index, So a Mean Reversion is Logical here, But it Doesn't
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NIFTY Forming Weekly NR4 + IB Compression Setup.
What is NR4 + IB?
: Smallest Range Candle in Last 4 Sessions which is Also Inside BAR (IB). This Causes Compression.
If Breaks Out with a Daily Close,
Targets are Equal to Mother Candle Range. In this Case, 697 Points.
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Sharing Another Strategy For 'Trading Breakouts n Breakdowns'.
Using and Back-testing this For a while. Will try to Explain it's logic simple way.
Posted for Educational Purpose. No investment advice.
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BANKNIFTY : Possible Move for Next Few Sessions.
The Selloff Intensity was Quite Serious Last week, The Pullback is even Weaker. 46200-500 Should Offer Good Resistance and Opportunity for Fresh Selling
Looking for 44600 As 1st Objective for Followup Selling.
(Negates above 47k)
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How The NR7 Breakout is Supposed to work in Theory?
: This is How...!
A Classic Textbook Move and 400+ Points Rally on NIFTY.
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My
#NIFTY
Expectation for Coming Days..!
(I may go completely wrong, just keep it mind as a Reference)
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Marekt always try to remove weak hands. let it be a simple Trending move or bit Complicated structures like reversal or fake Breakouts. It'll always find a way. & It's the only thing we can rely 101% on markets to do so.
A small thread.
Kindly Share, 'RT' if u find it useful.
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BANKNIFTY : BNF is Possibly Trapping Late Buyers here.
Expecting Test of 47300 & 46500 in Coming Days.
Rising Channel Breakout in Already Uptrending Move is a Sign of The Exhaustion.
(Valid till Holds below 48200)
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NIFTY Seems to Have some Special Relationship with ..850 Levels in last few Years.
16850, 17850, 18850, 19850 & Now 20850.
What's Next.. 21850?
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Sharing a GAPUP and GAPDOWN Strategy, which I've been Trading and back-testing for more than 6 months.
It's well known but I've made some modifications for simplicity.
I Hope it adds some value n insight to your trading.
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NIFTY WEEKLY : Third Inside Bar in a Row in Progress Right now.
Last week we got 3 Back to back Downtrending Days - Still this Compression is Not Broken.
Imagine the Intensity of the Move once broken Out.
Mother Candle is Nearly 700 Points. So, Expecting Equal Move after BO.
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When NIFTY Corrected 1000 Points Each Back in SEPTEMBER & OCTOBER, The speed of the Fall was Quite Fast as most of the Main Selloff Happened under a week's time. Later consolidated and fell 1000 Points again.
The Point is Markets at some Points Appear that they'll Never fall the
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If Trading Hours actually Get Extended,
Broker will Make More Money? : Definitely yes.
HFTs, Prop Desks, Institutions will make Money? : Yes.
Retailers will Mostly Overtrade More in FnO & Eventually Loose More?
: Sadly yes.
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Weekly Inside Bar On
#NIFTY
Happens Once Out of 2/3 Months.
Check the History What happens after BreakOut.
Good Momentum is Coming whichever side it Breaks Out.
Up or Down?
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Learn the Skill to Identify Trending Day and Whipsaw Day.
Half the Job is Done There.
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#Thread
Hello Everyone, this is a Thread on Traps And Fake Breakouts..
Explained with most Recent Examples in BNF n TATAMOTORS.
How to Identify them..?
How to avoid Getting Trapped..?
When can Traps Occur..?
Share n RT if u find Value Addition in terms of Learning.
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NIFTY : Expecting Markets to settle in Between 21400 to 21750 before Budget. ✅
There should be 350-400 Points Buffer on Both sides to Absorb Any Shocks/Unexpected Factors from Upcoming events.
21150-250 Has been Established as a Good Support.
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NIFTY Might be in The 'Initial' Process Of Making This Rising Channel.
This is Valid Only If : Buyers Show Strength from 19300/19400 & Hold this Zone, Possible test of 20200/20400 in coming Days.
Negates below Breakdown of 19200.
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BANKNIFTY : The Bull Trap
How I expected it to Happen
Vs How it's Happening.
BANKNIFTY : Expectation Going Forward.
The Strength Longs Should Show in this Upmove is Lacking So far.
If There's Any Gapup Above 41700 which Does not Sustain, we should get a Downtrending Day.
View Negates Above 42200 Close.
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NIFTY Weekly : Another Inside Bar Compression
Things Just Got Intriguing..😎😍
Stage is Being Set up.. Are You Ready?
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Reading NIFTY :
Tomorrow is Monthly Expiry & NIFTY has Made INSIDE BAR Today. A Great Sign for Trending Day.
There's Nearly 300 Points of Move Pending As per me.
Primary Expectations is on Upside. But will be Ready to Shift the Bias for Downside as well 'If' Weakness Shows up
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Scaling up in Trading is Not Easy.
Doesn't happen like a Dream.
One day you punch 20/30 Lots & in few days if you try punching 200/300 Lots. No... It's not Possible.
Tried to do it while staying 100% Focused But Couldn't do it 'Fast'. So, Chosen the Slower way. Much better.
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NIFTY : NR7 Compression Candle On Budget Day. Rare Event.
What is NR7 ?
- Smallest Candle in Last 7 Days.
- Breakout Leads to Trending Move.
Expecting Test of 21350 in Coming Days. Need to Break Below 21650.
(Bullish Only Above 21900+ Break with Intent)
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NIFTY Bearish Engulfing Candle Today on Daily Charts.
What Does it Signify?
- Potential Reversal Signal
- If Price Holds below Low of Such Candle, We might see Sharp Selling.
In Current Scenario, If Price Holds Below 20850, There's Possibility of 20507 Test.
✅ Should be a
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With Today's NIFTY Fall, I'm Reminded of the Shakeout Pattern in PFC that Happened Recently.
Sharp Upmove in last leg of Rise and Instant Sharp Downmove (which is actually a Retest) to Remove Weak Hands and Slowly resumes the Rise again.
This way, Price Doesn't Break the
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BANKNIFTY : Waiting for Bull Trap Above 42685 for HH Rejection and Short Entry.
41800 : Previous ATH Double top Trying to Become Double Bottom Support now.
Remember : "Biggest Levels are broken when they're least expected"
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Most Sideways/Boring Days are Exactly where Fresh Trend is Getting Built in the Background.
Prepared for Good FINNIFTY Expiry Tomorrow.
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BANKNIFTY : Expectation Going Forward.
The Strength Longs Should Show in this Upmove is Lacking So far.
If There's Any Gapup Above 41700 which Does not Sustain, we should get a Downtrending Day.
View Negates Above 42200 Close.
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Market will keep teaching you the Same lesson 100 Times if you don't learn.
You'll get tired of learning.. but Market will never be Tired of Teaching.
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NIFTY : How it was Expected vs How It's Going.
Still in Phase 1 Of the Initiation of Rally. But i) Bounce Has Came from Incredibly Good Location ii) Buyer Have stepped up really well.
iii) Picture Perfect ISLAND Reversal at the Lows is Cherry on the Top.
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NIFTY WEEKLY : Textbook Hammer at Support.
If Monday is Gapup Open & Holds, This will Turn into a ISLAND Reversal Also.
Should Create an Impression of "All is well" Next week, Before Sliding Down.
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If There is 1000+ Points of Fall in NIFTY in Next Few Days,
How Would you Trade it..?
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Stop Overthinking about VIX and Market will not Give big Directional Moves & that sort of Thinking Mindset.
Be Ready for all Types of Moves in all Market Conditions.
The surprising Factor is the Only Constant in The Market.
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Market is Tiring out Directional Players again.. Option Buyers Especially.
Once they Get properly Exhausted & Not willing to Bet on BreakOut - then we'll get the Major Move..
#nifty
#banknifty
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You'll Never Realise when Exactly Scalping in BANKNIFTY Options turns into Playing A Video Game.
Discretionary trading in Options always has this 'Thin line' Between Trading and Gambling. Understand it well.
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If you've been Trading BANKNIFTY Closely for last 1-2 weeks, you must've come across some brutal changes in Range & Price Behavior.
Sideways whipsaws Days are nothing new for us, But this type of Continuous Rejections & recoveries in same candles with aggression is getting bit
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NIFTY 20500/20600 Should Be A Major Resistance Zone for NIFTY.
Unless Any Euphoria Happens tomorrow, Expecting NIFTY to Cool Off and Test 19800 Soon.
Extreme Optimism/Euphoria Knows no Bounds So I can definitely go wrong here. But the First Hour tomorrow Should lear the Air.
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1000 Points Fall Done on NIFTY.
Now, This 16850 is The Level which keeps the Power fo Trigger 1000 Points Rally as well.
If There is 1000+ Points of Fall in NIFTY in Next Few Days,
How Would you Trade it..?
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NIFTY : Weekly Compression
19234 July Gapup Open is Showing Incredible Defense by Buyers for 5 weeks Straight.
The First Signal for Fresh Leg of UpMove will be Above 19460. If Happens with a Breakaway Gapup, will be Best for Rally towards 20k
Negation Point Below 19230.
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The Higher we go with the Timeframe, The Cleaner the Price Action Gets.
The Lower we Go with the Timeframe, The Messier it Gets.
That's Why Trading In Intraday Timeframes Of 1 Min, 3 Min, 5Min, 15 Mins Requires Bit more Deeper understanding of Price Behaviour than Higher
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I'm loving TV Shows & Movies which are based on True Incidents.
Chernobyl
The Railway Men
The Days
Narcos
Mindhunter
The Big Short
Khakee : The Bihar Chapter
Any Other Names would Recommend/suggest which are Good to watch?
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NIFTY WEEKLY : Perfect DOJI Candle to Close the week.
The Suspense Continues...
Now, it's a NR4 Compression.
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When we're not getting good read on the Market, It's Better to Stand Back and Wait for Proper Structure to Form which we understand.
Because, Multiplying Mistakes/Losses doesn't Take time.
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BANKNIFTY :
How I expected This Selloff to Happen
Vs
How It's Actually Happening.
The Extra Engulfing Candles Yesterday was a Bonus & Extended Opportunity From Market.
BANKNIFTY is a Case of Breakaway Gap Today which has been Held.
So, Initial Context is on Long side, However if there's any opening Below Previous Day low : we'll get Island Reversal Scenario.
This is Only Valid if there's a Gapdown tomorrow. Not Preempting Any Positions here.
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1100 Points Rise
2500 Points Fall
1200 Points Rise Again...
That's Just Casual BANKNIFTY..🔥💥
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Sometimes, Just a Well Defined Memory is Enough to Anticipate what's Coming next.
Today's Price Action is Similar to One of The Friday's Last Month..!
Memorise Enough of these Intraday Patterns over time & you'll thank Yourself on the next Big Day..!
#NIFTY
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There are Great Analysts, Bad Traders & Bad Analysts, Good Traders....!
Along with Best Analysts who are Worst Traders (Surprisingly)
Very Few are Great Analysts + Great Traders at the same time.
Without Putting Real Money at test, Nobody can Truly Learn this Art.
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BANKNIFTY : How it was Expected vs How it Actually Happened.
First Move : 46500 to 44600
~ 1900 Points ✅
Bounceback : 44600 to 45400+
~ 800 Points ✅
Blueprint Completed in just 2 Sessions. Wasn't Expected this Fast TBH, But Markets have its own ways.
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BANKNIFTY Fell 1100 Points till 44850 After this.
In the Coming week, there needs to be a Followup selling.
If BEARS FAIL to Do so,
BULLS MIGHT TRY FOR 47000+ BREAKOUT AGAIN.
One Needs to observe next 2-3 sessions on How 46000-46200 levels react.
BANKNIFTY : 2500+ Points Fall Underway. 🔴
i) Breakdown Retest of 46880 happened most likely in Friday.
ii) Expecting Followup selling for Test of i) 44500 & ii) 43200 till Holds below 46900.
(Disclaimer : No Trade Recommendation)
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This 3:30 to 5 PM, Extended 1.5 Hours is Going to Create Extra Stress for sure.
Already, 3:30 baje tak Mind get's Drained a Lot for Intraday Traders..!
But, at last - it is what it is, we'll have to adapt to this & keep evolving. No other Option.
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Check Structures of 16June & 17June
One sided Downtrending Expiry,
Friday of Traps.
Kept this in mind And Traded Both moves Perfectly with Long and Short.
Memorise the moves like it's tables of number's in School.
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These are
#BANKNIFTY
#Expiry
Levels for Tomorrow.
How will you Make a Tradeplan Around these?
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Making Money on Trending Days is Very Easy. But, Keeping it takes some real Discipline.
What Follows after One sided Trending days is Sideways Whipsaw/Mean Reversion day. Where most of the Traders Loose the Profits made on previous day.
PRESERVE THE GAINS AT ALL COSTS.
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Failures are Most important things in Life...
Bcz Success Doesn't teach you as Much, It Boosts Yours Ego.
Credits : King
@imVkohli
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Weekly Inside Bar on
#NIFTY
Again.
(Minor LL of 5 Points which can be Ignored)
Either Side Breakout Should Give us Nearly 700 Points.
Get Ready.
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Whatever Trend you might've missed today & Feeling FOMO about it...
I think it's actually Nothing infront of what's coming in next 1/2 Months.
Volatility should Rise & Bigger Trending Moves should Come.
Then Don't complain, Bahot Volatile hogya. 😂
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Since last 2 weeks I've been working on Positional SAR System for NIFTY/BANKNIFTY.
What I'm Surprised by is 'How Major Clues Of Direction Just hide in Plainsight with Basic Candlesticks. & Surprisingly deliver Prominent Results than Complex Methods.
Mostly we tend to overlook
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NIFTY : Dramatic Selloff in Last 30 Minutes' BUT, Closed Exactly at Support.
What Do you think will Happen Next?
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What a Beautiful Trending Move : Almost a Linear One.
No Chaos of Whipsaws, No Deep Pullbacks & Damn Cheap Options Premiums which Moved 4x-5x with Ease.
What More can a Option Buyers Ask For..✅❤️
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With Almost Every single day Expiry, There's High probability Of Intensifying The Gambling instincts of most retailer's.
And Within No time, This will become habit to Come Everyday & Start Betting on HeroZero Trades.
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Ahh, Here we Go Again'.
NIFTY WEEKLY : Back to Back DOJI's
Trend is Around the Corner, Stay in the Game till then.
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No Matter how Much accuracy we have, Or No Matter How Good RR Ratio we're Trading with - Risk Management was and Will Remain Ultimate King in Trading.
To Really Understand this Fact to the Core, You must See for Yourself the Brutality Market Shows When Risk is not respected.
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Two Basic Fibonacci Structures of
#NIFTY
1) Retracement - Clear Bounce off 61.8% : UpTrend is Still Intact.
2) Extension : if Uptrend Continued, 1:1 Target till 19100
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What if Extreme Selling Pressure Can't Even Break the Support Level.
The Big Red Candle : Results Day.
Support : 305
Stock Name is Easy to Find. Comment if you know.
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The Kind of Momentum I'm Expecting in this Rally Has not Happened yet.
So far, It's Just been Gaps, Contractions, Premium Decay n 100 Other things.. But Raw One sided Clean Momentum? - No.?
This Should (& will) change soon.
Range Expansion Expected in Next 2 weeks. Get Ready.
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Reading NIFTY : DAILY F
The 4th JUNE AVWAP Stands Around 23700-800 Zones. It Has Not been Tested yet with a Correction. There's Good Possibility this will be Tested Soon & Bounceback to ATH.
In My Opinion, AUGUST is likely to be Correction in First Half & Rally in 2nd Half.
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GIFTNIFTY : Trying to Breakout Of 21120+ since past 4 Sessions.
Multiple Times Tested Level Now.. Eventually should Trigger a Good Upmove from here.
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BANKNIFTY is a Case of Breakaway Gap Today which has been Held.
So, Initial Context is on Long side, However if there's any opening Below Previous Day low : we'll get Island Reversal Scenario.
This is Only Valid if there's a Gapdown tomorrow. Not Preempting Any Positions here.
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Learn to Filter the Noise And Focus on what Matters Most for you.
Whatever you keep Feeding your mind everyday & constantly : it'll start Behaving like the same.
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All Those people who Have missed this Rally & Waiting for Correction to Buy : Will Never Actually Buy when Real Correction comes.
If Lessons are Not learnt in One Cycle : No amount of Correction or Rally will Give confidence to Hit the Next one.
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Lot's of time I get a Better Perspective of the Same Chart by looking it in the Phone instead of Looking at Laptop screen.
Does this Happen with you?
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Life is Short.
Time is Fast.
No Replay, No Rewind.
So Enjoy Every Moment as it Comes.
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