Gold & China🇨🇳 vs US🇺🇸 Gold has seen 6 consecutive green weeks since the December 30th, with this week starting green as well and near a big psychology level - which is the $3,000 mark. After more than 3 and a half years of ranging between $2,085 - $1,614, gold broke out and is currently setting record high after record high. Why exactly is that? As we know, gold has been a safe haven since forever. During rough times, investor's consensus is turning towards it. Since the '24 ATH breakout, gold has been on a insane run - its moves are following our Global Liquidity index for the most part, but as you see on the chart below, GLI is yet to make a significant move - due to FED still holding foot on the break. On the other hand gold has, despite this, been ripping higher. Key factor due to which gold has been on this massive run, is the buying pressure generated by countries - China in particular which has purchased ~20tons of gold, over the past 3 months alone. Not so long ago, China came out with some pretty bullish news for gold - allowing insurers to buy it, for the first time ever, and opening the market to potential ~$27billion of buying pressure. Many argue that either the deflationary environment or the trade war with US, is what is causing this - but we believe it comes down to one of the two reasons mentioned below: 1. Preparing for what's to come Once the US starts repaying its massive debt for this and next year, it will need quite a bit of liquidity to do so. As the West continues to provide that liquidity, the rest of the world will not ignore it and quite opposite - they will gladly follow free-presented money trade. Conversely if they can't repay the debt, then a big crises truly is ahead of us. 2. Undermining the US Dollar The goal may be to dethrone the US dollar and weaken America's currency. How? With help from the US itself, as reckless debt refinancing reduces the dollars appeal as a store for your future - all while they offer the renminbi backed by gold as the new store of value. While the US is leaning on expanding its power with stablecoins, the Chinese are sticking to the old method and strategically selling its dollars for gold, making their next move on the chess board. These are Major General Qiao Liang's words: we should promote the renminbi to the primary currency of Asia. Just as the dollar first became the currency of North America, and then the currency of the World. They actually mean it! So while US is focusing on the digital future - crypto - China is staking more and more gold. Who's going to win this game of chess? Is it the US, by creating a Strategic Bitcoin reserve & expanding their USD stablecoin reach and therefore leaving China in the dust, or will China win this by playing it 'safe'? Bullish for Bitcoin No matter how it ends, all ways lead to a higher Bitcoin's value. Below is a XAUBTC chart. We've highlighted gold's outperformance against Bitcoin here in order to show a key pattern: When gold moves first and consolidates after, that's when Bitcoin takes off. Right now the same setup is playing - for the fourth time - gold is leading while Bitcoin moves sideways. Are you mentally prepared for another 1-2 months of Gold outperforming while Bitcoin stays quiet?

All Eyes on the Treasury As of February 7th, the Treasury has used up more than 60% of its extraordinary measures - likely even higher by now. The key question: when will they tap into the liquidity everyone is waiting for? We expect the TGA drawdown to begin next week, though it will likely be temporary. Tax season in April will refill the account before another decline begins—until a new debt limit or suspension is agreed upon. Meanwhile, the Fed shows no signs of halting QT. Other bullish indicators include the Q4 2024 loan survey. While demand remained weak, banks anticipate a rise in loan demand for 2025, supported by signs of improvement in the business cycle, such as an uptick in ISM PMI data. Trump's new tariffs on China had no effect on the dollar, confirming our expectation that a big down move is coming. While the Fed’s tightening continues, we believe the TGA drawdown could offset these effects, leading to a net positive liquidity injection in the coming weeks. With so much focus on TGA levels, a frontrun seems likely. Our Global Liquidity Index increased by $0.566 trillion this week, marking a 0.44% increase. The 3-month change is showing improvement but still lags behind the 12-month change.

@krakenfx @stoolpresidente Wow, you actually listed this garbage? Thought you guys were one of the good ones

It actually went short on February 4th, here's a zoomed in view

@Cryptomast80762 Only on our X, there isn't a public-accessible interactive chart for this model right now

@Keith_SGH Wouldn’t call it a problem per se - once RRP hits zero, it could actually mark the end of their official QT. That said, while the Fed is still running 'official' QT, they've also introduced stealth QE in the background

@internal_asylum Haha happy to hear you find it valuable, Dave! Appreciate the comment, and hope this sparked enough interest for you to dig deeper on this by yourself too

@_Checkmatey_ Just wait until Bitcoin makes another ATH, they'll come back shouting

One of the biggest media investors in the world, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, has a massive stake in X. In this interview, one key takeaway - possibly unintentional - was that payment functions are coming to X in Q1 of 2025. Not just a possibility, but rather - it’s happening. Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Elon has been vocal in the past about incorporating $DOGE as a payment currency on X. We don’t see that happening, honestly, but… #Bitcoin, on the other hand? We think it’s very likely that Bitcoin - in one way or another - will be part of X’s payment system. If and when that happens, the case for Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve asset significantly strengthens.

Good spot to add more #Bitcoin here. Hard to imagine a fast V reversal up from here, think we're in for more chop, and likely a re-test of the lows. That said, DCA-ing in is the best way to go on about it - if you're looking to increase exposure.

@RyanSuresh2 Appreciate you, Ryan! At this moment no, models using our main GLI's data as part of calculation are not accessible through our website, due to security reasons

Thank you, Jordon! Not using M2 as it does not accurately represent liquidity. TGA and RRP are tools used by authorities to manage liquidity, where as M2 primarily reflects broad money supply vs immediate liquidity conditions. We include an index of the most relevant liquidity-provider countries

@baltweett Appreciate you, sir!

@Trader_XO Curious to know, what is your preferred way of journaling trades - paper and pen or digitally?

There we go, Trudeau folds as well. And the $DXY reversed its whole move.. TRUDEAU: NEARLY 10,000 TROOPS TO PROTECT BORDER *DELAY IN US TARIFFS FOR 30 DAYS *CANADA TO NAME A FENTANYL CZAR China next please Mr. Orange Man Trump