Alpha Zeta (Rapha Zagury)
@alphaazeta
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“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” - George Orwell
The Matrix
Joined April 2009
Bitcoin isn’t just going to demonetize assets like gold and real estate. It’s going to expand its addressable market in a way most people still don’t grasp. Today, the majority of the global population isn’t incentivized to save. Bad money - constantly losing its value - creates
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Just like FTX, when $ETH collapses it will be obvious that the signals were everywhere. Convert to $BTC while and if you can.
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Let’s recap the first day of ETH hard fork:. 💩 SEC warns it may be a security.💩 Price dropped 6%+.💩 ETC hashrate hits ATH.💩 Mempool seems stuck but no one knows because no nodes.💩 4 validators control everything . Looks great. Congrats.
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Congrats on this @VitalikButerin. Seriously. Your technology is about to put the country I was born in and love in a catastrophic path. Hope you’re proud of it. I missed the part in the white paper where we were looking to give more power to politicians.
Brazil is creating a central bank digital currency using a private version of the Ethereum blockchain. but the code has been modified so they can:.- create unlimited new coins.- freeze accounts.- take money out of accounts
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My view on altcoins is simple. I’ve spent years learning about Bitcoin. Read a lot, watched more videos than I’m willing to admit, listened to podcasts pretty much every day. I also learned to code so I could read the Bitcoin code. I had a paranoia about back doors that . 1/n.
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Nakamoto Portfolio Theory .-----------------------------.Bitcoin Valuation based on Fixed Income. Inspired by @fossGregfoss's work, we'll explore how to estimate the value of Bitcoin using credit default swaps (CDS) as fiat insurance. You know. "for the kids". 1/n
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Nakamoto Portfolio Theory.-----------------------------.Schrödinger's Coin Model 🐈.Valuing Bitcoin as a Store of Value. How #Bitcoin will demonetize other assets and why it's significantly undervalued by 13x today.This is quite the thread. Hang tight🚀▶️. @SwanBitcoin @samcallah
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Nakamoto Portfolio Theory .-----------------------------.How are bitcoin's historical returns distributed? .Turns out there's nothing 'normal' about them. We've tumble down a rabbit hole, ending up deep in the world of #Bitcoin forecasting. (1/n)
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How hard it is to forecast bitcoin's price?. Using history as a guide, we can run a simulation to forecast 1-year returns using a Monte Carlo Simulation. Quick results:. Average expected price in 1-year = $144k. But the average here is not a great indicator. This is the same
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Dear @NC_Blockchain -. I just noticed the state has a $50k budget to analyze the impact of Bitcoin on the state’s balance sheet. Our team at @Swan will run the analysis for free and you can keep the $50k as your first bitcoin purchase. We’ve done hundreds of analysis similar to.
BREAKING: North Carolina House passes a bill to study if the state should hold #Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
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I’ve been saying this for years:. HODLing bitcoin is an exercise of patience. It will give you months and years of pain. And a few days and weeks of glory. Keep these days in mind. Eventually, they come back. This move is nothing. This is not a God candle. Pump for ants.
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Something very odd going on with $BTC price action. Thankfully I don’t trade or leverage. Just watching 🍿.
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Then they join us….
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: "I do believe the role of crypto is. it is digitizing gold in many ways.". "Let's be clear: #bitcoin is an international asset"
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⚠️ BREAKING ⚠️.------------------.Inflation numbers for Bitcoin are in:
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The consequences of ignoring Bitcoin are only starting. Quick results since @Beiwatch1 @FossGregfoss @JoeCarlasare and I have recommended a hypothetical Bitcoin allocation to these pension funds. This is $1.7bi missed by Wisconsin and $1.8bi missed by Ontario Teachers if
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I lived through hyperinflation. What people still don’t realize is that inflation expectations are like the breaking of a dam. After it breaks there’s no going back. It becomes a self fulfilling disaster where people race to adjust their prices before their costs increase.
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1/ 🧵A deep dive into how @Greenpeace has lied & exaggerated facts over the years, hindering technology advancement. Here's a breakdown of some key events, controversies, and how the organization's management practices contradict its mission.
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The Rat Poison Portfolio 🐀 .An equally weighted portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft, JP Morgan and BlackRock. Guess what happens when we add #bitcoin to this portfolio? . Higher volatility? .Higher drawdowns? .Higher risk?. Let's run the numbers
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Nakamoto Portfolio Theory .-----------------------------.The Nakamoto Portfolio Theory is a set of frameworks to help investors understand the impact an emerging asset like Bitcoin has a portfolio allocation. Mega thread on the frameworks and foundation.
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How it started:.wE bRokE BiTcoiN. How it's going:.Bitcoin broke them
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Back in 2004 I managed money for one of the top banking families in the world. When Google filed for their IPO, our investment committee had a long debate and then presented the findings to the owner. He shut us down in 10 seconds:.“I’m not buying a search engine”.
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Almost 8,000 altcoins performance since 2016. 41 Outperformed #BTC with an average outperformance of 1.46x BTC's performance. 2,635 Underperformed and on average returned 0.04x BTC's performance (you LOST ALMOST ALL your BTC). Bottom right corner is where shitcoins go to die
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Is 99% a lot? .Asking for Pomp, Novo and Raoul.
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This is how CDS traders, not Bitcoiners, are pricing the probability of the collapse of the fiat system. Plan accordingly. We’ll have a new app based on these soon (tm).
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About 8 months ago, @Beiwatch1, @JoeCarlasare, @FossGregfoss, and I suggested the Wisconsin Retirement Fund allocate 2% to Bitcoin. Today, it’s revealed they have exposure. Coincidence? I'd like to think not. Seriously, driving Bitcoin adoption has been my core mission and one
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I will fight against this until the end of my days. Money is the result of labor at the expense of our own time and effort . No one should be allowed to control, destroy or confiscate it. We should have freedom to do whatever we want with it. It is that simple.
And there’s the proof, central banks want total control of how you use your money, CBDCs are not cash equivalents. Fight this and opt out via #Bitcoin.
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I've noticed more investors mentioning swapping $BTC for $MSTR, and frankly, I think it's a move fraught with badly priced risk. Unless you're in the niche of convertible debt trading with no direct access to Bitcoin, this significantly worsens the future risk profile of your.
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If you're selling BTC based on inflation reports running hot, you have no idea what you're holding.
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@guardian Takes 5 minutes of research about the historical precedents for price control to understand how this is a terrible idea. But go ahead and try it.
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$BTC price continues to move sideways. Had some time today to build a script to check how frequent these sideway periods are and what usually happens afterwards. Take these with a grain of salt. But here you go. TLDR; Good luck trying to time the market.
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Remember March 2020? When #btc crashed from $9k to $4k?. The FED did not bail anyone out. There was panic. There were liquidations. There was pain. BUT, the market cleared and positions got squared. Reset button. Guess what happens when they restrict access to a reset button?.
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🇧🇷 Várias pessoas me pediram o vídeo que passou no @satsconf_ antes da minha conversa com o @leta_science. Todo crédito ao @bitstein por ter criado essa obra prima que mostra de forma clara como estamos sentados nos ombros de gigantes. Realmente é de arrepiar. Bitcoin não
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0/ I’ll try to make a case on why using @TheRealBlockFi interest account is one of the worst decisions a BTC investor can make. I’m all for innovation and new products in the BTC space. But, in my view, this is highway robbery + exposes investors to a risk they don’t understand👇🏻.
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This is your periodic reminder that:. - If you have any $BTC in Binance, move it out. Not worth the risk. You should have done this yesterday. - $BTC selling-off based on these news means that either people have no idea what they are holding; and/or they are getting liquidated.
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It was a pleasure to record with @PeterMcCormack and @_DannyKnowles. Hope you enjoy the podcast. I’ve tried to cover much of the ground we’ve been exploring at Nakamoto Portfolio Theory. In other news, Peter is now learning to appreciate some Carioca soccer.
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Bitcoin days from previous ATH. Almost time.
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One year ago, last September. Bitcoin price was moving “sideways” between 10k and 12k since July. Sentiment was very similar to today. And then it changed. Very quickly. HODLing is not for the impatient.
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Reminder: .Every bull market has more than a few 20%+ drops that will test your conviction. Prepare accordingly.
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Another one bends the knee. For full disclosure, it brings me immense joy to witness bank CEOs, who are essentially glorified politicians lacking vision and strategic skills, being compelled to accept Bitcoin.
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Bullshit. Here’s a short list top of my mind. There’s more. 1. Ethics .2. Sense of community, family values. 3. Financial education .4. Probabilities .5. Coding, logical and critical thinking . All still going to be relevant in 20yrs.
Yuval Noah Harari: we have no idea what to teach young people that will still be relevant in 20 years
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But the beauty of this system is that it is completely voluntary. No one is forcing others to act. You control your own destiny and the result of your actions will have a strong correlation to how much you’ve really dedicated yourself to learning. May Satoshi be with you. EOF.
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Nakamoto Portfolio Theory .-----------------------------.Real Estate as a store of value. We ran the numbers, studied historical returns, and scrutinized the fundamentals to determine if real estate truly delivers on its promises. Our findings ▶️.
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Thrilled to share my recent CNBC appearance, discussing Bitcoin's transformative journey. Bitcoin is set to redefine assets traditionally seen as savings vehicles — equities, bonds, real estate — all of these transformed into monetary Frankensteins by capturing massive monetary.
NEW‼️ - Raphael Zagury, CIO of Swan Bitcoin:. “Bitcoin is coming for gold, there’s NO QUESTION about that…. [But] it’s much bigger than gold. I think Bitcoin is coming to capture the monetary premium on a lot of these assets out there.”. #Bitcoin 🚀🚀🚀
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If you don’t know enough about something maybe you shouldn’t be promoting it to your audience and then asking questions like this. Irresponsible at best. DO NOT USE THIS.
Will I get Rugged on Borrowing against my BTC using ShapeShift / ThorChain?. I respect the crowd. If crowd says yes, I will limit to 1 BTC.
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One of my Bitcoin nodes makes some weird noises some days… listen to this one. Anyone else has this issue?
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If you think you can trade bitcoin and be profitable in the long term I suggest you go back 1 year, 2 years and 5 years on Bitcoin Twitter. I’ve seen my share of traders come and go. Very few survive longer than a year. The hodlers? Most of them stick around.
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People still don’t comprehend the magnitude of what we are witnessing. This will be remembered for hundreds of years.
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I think the recent regulatory developments are very positive for Bitcoin. Trump's comments and the approval of Ethereum ETFs are significant and incredibly bullish for Bitcoin. Some thoughts. 1/n.
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If the opinion of a single actor made any difference, I wouldn’t own #bitcoin. You panic. I stack.
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This says more about how decisions are made at Tesla than anything else. I would never be a shareholder of a company where decisions are based on the ego of a single person. @elon, you should sell all your Bitcoin. It is not for you. Sell at market today.
@CryptoWhale Indeed.
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The biggest bailout ever. But please, don’t call it a bailout. It’s offensive.
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This whole process has been taking years. And maybe I’m not that smart but I have a constant feeling that I’ve only scratched the surface on understanding #Bitcoin. It is really hard for me to understand how anyone would venture into alts when there’s so much to learn. 4/n.
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1/ I just recorded @Swan Signal with @samcallah and I briefly highlighted how I think game theory has been shaping my thinking of Bitcoin. But I don't think I did a great job in our discussion so let me try to make it better here. 🧵.
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Credit Suisse was the Bear Stearns moment. The Lehman moment is probably still ahead of us. This crisis has potential to be much bigger than 2008. So many uncertainties and risks.
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Bitcoin Twitter is becoming close to unreadable. So many personal attacks, bad technical takes and people voicing macro opinions with conviction when this is the most uncertain of times in our lifetimes. So much noise. So little signal.
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Reminder about this reminder.
Reminder: .Every bull market has more than a few 20%+ drops that will test your conviction. Prepare accordingly.
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Swan House ready to go!.We’ll be hosting a live spaces around 2pm EST where I’ll be discussing Macro and portfolio construction using the Nakamoto Portfolio with @LynAldenContact @edstromandrew and others. Tune in!.@SwanBitcoin
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When I started following #Bitcoin twitter, my first impression was horrible. So many bad takes, memes, childish tweets, scams. But then I figured that this is a feature of a system that it’s free and open to anyone. Feature. Not bug. 👇🏻.
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Nakamoto Portfolio Theory .------------------------------------.Bitcoin and Retirement Accounts. Let's discuss why Bitcoin is the ultimate asset to include in a retirement account. We ran the numbers at @SwanBitcoin's Research. 🦢🏃♂️🔢📈. 🧵1/n 🔽
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I still see a block coming in every 10 minutes. If you still have funds at this shitty exchange I only have one thing to say. HFSP.
We've temporarily closed $BTC withdrawals as the #Bitcoin network is experiencing a congestion issue. Our team is currently working on a fix until the network is stabilized and will reopen $BTC withdrawals as soon as possible. Rest assured, funds are SAFU.
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Seems like $BTC is stuck in a range. Although I hate price predictions, I think there's value in learning from the past. So let me revisit the thread below and update the numbers. "What happens to #btc price after low vol periods? (2024 version)".
What happens to #btc price after low vol periods (part 2). Another quick analysis. Here we look at low vol periods (30 day vol < 30% on x axis) and what happens to price after 30 days (on y axis). Seems like the break is very often to the upside (above blue line).
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Nakamoto Portfolio Theory.-----------------------------.Portfolio optimization . Why every portfolio should have a #bitcoin allocation. A (somewhat) technical thread on portfolio theory. @SwanBitcoin . Let's dive in. 📈 ▶️.
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@greenpeaceusa Good time to bring this one back….
1/ 🧵A deep dive into how @Greenpeace has lied & exaggerated facts over the years, hindering technology advancement. Here's a breakdown of some key events, controversies, and how the organization's management practices contradict its mission.
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The current financial system is a massive complexity theater. I love how a simple question. A question so basic you’d expect from a kid, gets him so confused.
This is absolutely priceless. And probably the most frightening clip you'll ever watch on the people in charge of the US economy. Jared Bernstein is literally the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the main agency advising Biden on economic policy.
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I wish I was more eloquent like many on this space. There is a lot I could share but I also think my time now is better spent enjoying my family, growing my business and coding some hobby projects for #bitcoin. 8/n.
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. reckless features and technological advances. Things take time. As they should. Finally, I also think it’s impossible to replicate Bitcoin’s genesis. A multitude of variables needed to be aligned for its success. It created an anti-fragile network that feeds. 6/n.
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I’ve also came to the conclusion that every alt is a testnet for Bitcoin. All the code on this space is open source. Anything good enough to be copied, has the potential to be copied if there is consensus. Consensus is the best way to balance between. 5/n.
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This is from a well known bike shop in Brooklyn, NY. It’s exactly how inflation morphs into hyperinflation. I’ve seen similar messages from shops in different sectors and I’m having nightmares of reliving the economic disaster of Brazilian hyperinflation of the 80s.
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Families who've spent a lifetime saving, now seeing their hard work erased overnight—a 37% theft of their time. Having experienced Brazil's devaluations, I know the devastation it brings. We need ethical money.
🚨BREAKING🚨: Egyptian Pound. The Egyptian Pound is down 37% against the USD after switching to a flexible exchange rate. IMAGINE LOSING 37% OF YOUR SAVINGS IN A DAY. That's why we #Bitcoin
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For everyone panicking and wondering if this is normal. I ran the numbers. The chart below shows the latest 2-day-drop (red line = 22%). The green boxes highlight bull markets. Do you see how many times we've seen drops that are similar or larger?
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Here's an example of how a new technology can supernova an existing TAM
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You have to challenge the foundations of things you believe in your core to be true. Most cannot do it. They’re not ready. Some don’t want to spend the time. Most have an unconscious worry that by breaking some of the pillars of their “truths” they won’t know what to believe.
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Nakamoto Portfolio now has some classic portfolios templates for quick access:. - 60/40.- A proxy to Ray Dalio's All-Weather portfolio.- Multi-Asset Class.- The "rat poison" portfolio. others. Suggestions for additional portfolios are welcome.
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This is my small contribution to the Bitcoin community. A portfolio tool that it’s now Open Source. - All data is saved locally for more privacy. - Calculates daily NAV of portfolio = super easy to track performance.
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What happens to #btc price after low vol periods (part 2). Another quick analysis. Here we look at low vol periods (30 day vol < 30% on x axis) and what happens to price after 30 days (on y axis). Seems like the break is very often to the upside (above blue line).
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Real life Jedis once walked among us. RIP Hal.
✨ Today is Hal Finney's 67th birthday. RIP to a true visionary — a man who championed #Bitcoin when it was worth $0, received its first transaction from Satoshi, and made countless cryptographic contributions of his own. Gone but not forgotten 💫
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Verifiable truth is the scarcest modern asset. #Bitcoin is an oasis of truth, transparency and safety. Valuation should be orders of magnitude from here.
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. from distress. This is the most perfect social network we’ve ever witnessed. And we are all alive to see it. 7/n.
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If you have a @getumbrel node connected to a screen, you can make it into a bitcoin dashboard showing latest price, mempool and other info.
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Serve and Protect
A North Carolina man with $39,500 in cash landed in Phoenix. & had it all taken away by police. Officers suspected him of money laundering, but he brought it to buy a truck for business. Even though he's not charged with a crime, he hasn't gotten it back.
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The dollar is so sound that the establishment needs to worry about magic internet money taking its place.
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- "Bitcoin is worthless".- "OK. What do you think is the probability of Bitcoin demonetizing Real Estate in 15 years?".- "Less than 5%". Runs the numbers . - "Today's Fair Value should be $90k+ in that scenario. HFSP.". (50% estimate of RE value being monetary premium is LOW)
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And what we're witnessing will soon look like that as well. .
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Mnuchin is doing more for proof of keys than @TraceMayer ever did. He has no idea how much he is contributing to the non stoppable anti-fragility of the network.
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By far the best asymmetric risk / reward profile I've ever seen. Not even close. Accelerating growth. Small penetration. Massive addressable market. Ignore at your own risk.
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Pensions not considering bitcoin as part of their allocations are breaching their fiduciary duty. On a pure portfolio analytics basis, bitcoin provides diversification and enhances risk adjusted returns. @Beiwatch1 @FossGregfoss @JoeCarlasare .
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I worked at Wall Street for decades and saw my share of horrors. Eventually concluded the system was broken beyond repair. I’ve decided then to join the cypherpunk movement — I believe this is, by far, the best way individuals can make a difference in ending this corrupt system.
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Orange Pilling Schwab financial advisors.
📈 $BTC is nearing $44k 📈. Swan Bitcoin CIO Raphael Zagury examines the recent rally, the potential for #bitcoin ETFs, and the halving concept with @FuturesBenL:
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When I retired the first time, I really wanted to properly learn to code. After checking out different Computer Science courses (online and offline), I found about about Open Source Society University. This is a full CS course. 100% Free. 100% Online.
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Reminder: we are here. 59k, 100k, 250k,. rounding errors. Ignore the noise, zoom out, stack sats and keep learning and building.
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Even on a pure risk-return analysis Bitcoin is already the best asset class any capital allocator could include in a portfolio. Here's what a 10% allocation to Bitcoin represents in terms of changes in return, volatility and drawdown in many popular portfolios. Some interesting
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Like clock work in every bear market:. "I'm going to sell BTC and wait until the market turns around. Then I buy back.". TLDR; don't. You'll get REKT. Longer explanation 👇🧵(1/5).
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This crisis confirmed some of views:.- WHO: useless.- UN: useless.- SEC: beyond useless.- FED: very useful if you are long SPY. Otherwise, useless. - FINRA: who?.- CFTC: ”nO ManiPUlatIoN in OiL PricEs”.- FDA: LOLz.- FDIC: “please keep your money at banks”.
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Back in my Wall Street days, during FED decisions, the Merrill trading floor—a football field of desks and monitors—would fall so silent you could hear a needle drop. I remember thinking of how important these decisions were and how the weight of those moments was lost to most.
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