Alex
@alex_bcg
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liquidity at @BlackCodeGroup Nostr: npub1nj933zxxycg4ggupsj2877cyrpu34qllavpjkpkawcsv489lvurqhwsjl4
U+221E
Joined December 2013
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Last Seen Profiles
Speculation on how FTX with the help of Alameda managed to outpace everyone on volume growth and how this ultimately led to their spectacular demise:
1/n
1. Understand spreads, market makers and toxic flow
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Aptos went from making all time lows to all time highs in less than 22 days
lol.
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@michael_saylor
@elonmusk
@adamsamson
@Mr_Blinkx
@FT
@katie_martin_fx
@naumanbilly
@CambridgeAltFin
wait why did Elon delete his tweet
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For the quant interns
1. There’s no alpha on twitter, there’s good fundamental pointers that’s it
2. When you are onto some alpha, no one’s going to tell you your on the right path so keep going!
3. Simple alpha is found in complicated environments, the opposite is also true
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choppy markets reduce leverage
reduced leverage lead to trending markets
trending markets increase leverage
leveraged markets lead to choppy markets
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aptos top is in when things wick to the upside while OI wicks to the downside
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Born and grew up in Europe I always told myself there is no point getting into politics the impact on day to day life is so marginal. The reaction to Covid, arrest of Durov... is starting to tilt that. I'm surly not the only one thinking in this way. The west is provoking a
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btc nq downside beta gone, NQ chad arber not having a good time. BTC down only 1.5% on a 2.5% NQ move
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you'r doomed if you venture into low/no-volume books, there's literally no +EV and one of the most detrimental retail mistakes in crypto. Volume in a bear market is a strong signal both from a short term TF and long term TF
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7/n
But all was not well when Alameda got flooded with liquidations this year on Luna, Celcius and other severely directional moves. The internal risk model broke down and blew a multi billion dollar hole!
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no one is taking positions on btc here, sellers don't sell buyers waiting for sellers
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shorting aptos perps continuously while there's relentless spot bid doesn't seem to be a winning trade
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8/n
They desperately had to keep the liquidation model to retain the advantage over everyone else and so seemingly decided to bail out Alameda using user funds while Alameda posted it’s biggest and most illiquid assets as collateral. FTT
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Literally ALL MMs abandoned Serum, total ghost town volume down to 80k a day on sol/usdc
@openserum
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The market is telling you this estimation miss doesn't outweigh the fact the federal government is effectively running QE by not issuing bonds
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9/n
FTT lost confidence due to balance sheet leaks and the rest is history.
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5/n
Let Alameda takeover every liquidation and manage the risk discretionary using internal models. This allowed 3rd party market makers to quote a lot tighter on FTX than on any other exchange! Toxic flow was completely removed! Now you just had to deal with arbitrage flow.
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2/n
Market makers adjust spreads according to order flow of uninformed participants vs oder flow that materially impacts midpoint. Uninformed order flow is usually random and distributed in nature. While toxic flow such as arbitrage transactions and liquidations have a direct
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4/n
FTX bootstrapped liquidity by having Alameda post stale quotes, luring in arbitrage activity and thus volume and that lead to retail interest. They realized they can’t quote at a loss forever so they came up with an ingenious solution.
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Someone longing 500k$ worth of ankr on perps 1min before its microsoft press release is totally a coincidence
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looks like a massive long aptos short ETH/SOL spread trade blew out big time
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foot note:
@bitshine_
@CryptoHayes
Alameda is a liquidity provider on FTX but their account is just like everyone else's. Alameda's incentive is just for FTX to do as well as possible; by far the dominant factor is helping to make the trading experience as good as possible.
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instead of thinking how high can price go, how high can relative volume go?
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6/n
Arbitrage flow is still toxic but way less so than liquidation cascades. So now FTX had a seemingly sustainable advantage over EVERYONE out there! They had the best quotes and deepest liquidity, attracting tons of users. Genius.
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I can't stress enough how important it is to break down your trading into fundamental reasoning. If you are making money and don't fully understand why you prob going to get caught off guard and stop making money and don't know why. This is mostly pointing towards trend/ TA algos
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impressive commitment seriously, shorts keep piling up whenever we go above 60k, you know this works until it dont
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3/n
impact on midpoint. This flow is to be avoided as market makers but because that is fairly difficult market makers widen spreads instead to make up for the losses on liquidation price jump risk.
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tfw you realise USDT is better capitalised than your bank deposit tokens
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we'r at volume levels not seen since late 2020 but with 5x the liquidity. talk about tight markets
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BUSD is probably an easy 70bip trade here
Binance has temporarily suspended auto-conversion of USDC to BUSD due to current market conditions, specifically related to high inflows & the increasing burden to support the conversion.
This is a normal risk-management procedural step to take while we monitor the situation.
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the fud on this app is hilarious this is a screenshot from not binance and has everything to do with tech side of kraken it’s a stretch implying its deltec failing to deliver if that was true usdt would depeg big
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aaaaaahhhhh apt binance funding rate at -0.99% waaat are you guys doin over there
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at this rate bitcoin will pump +0.5% on ETF approval news and then swiftly proceed to make a new yearly low
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FTX has fallen and so has the old micro structure regime. Things have dramatically shifted especially on the touch of the book, things look and appear a lot more... organic and rational now. Coincidence?
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it's called liquidity because the bigger the market order the greater the splash
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just want to make a ton of money to fund research around the quantum observer effect
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Forced deleveraging doesn't respect your TA lines, it won't respect previous ATHs and it certainly doesn't respect any moving averages, TA is an extremely narrow market view, it barley captures or translates any of the fundamental forces and often just adds to an already
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The US is cracking down on crypto. Over the last couple of weeks we'v seen several big market makers and HFT firms reduce or close crypto divisions across the board. You see it in the flow, the spreads and the volatility. Volumes have dropped, so has the markets tendency to hunt
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A lot of times very good alpha is very easy to explain. If you have a hard time explaining your edge you'll have a hard time making money
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can't get over how the glasses are broken huge red flag right there
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you find yourself paying for funding, and price keeps moving against you
what do you do
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everyone waiting for Jerome to lower rates but no one mentions historically thats when markets crash
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at this point those who are still here, fighting among the sharks, are probably going to make it next cycle...
if you stay alive
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5 years from now there's going to be a large amount of crypto users who won't even know who Sam was, just like a mere few of you today actually know who Mark Karpeles was.
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funny market where we dump on bad earnings but pump on bad economic data & unemployment
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Mmmmmm
🎾 TETHER PRINTER 🎾
Just printed $2,198,102,814 USDT!
Total Supply: $120,258,419,916
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half a decade can change everything, went from not being very good at pandas and knowing nothing about market making to running hundreds of millions in volume a day
a few months can change everything, went from not being very good at pandas and knowing nothing about systematic trading strategies to running a 2+ sharpe on multiple alphas as an intern
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@simpelyfe
This is called an auto-spreader and is widely used in tradfi, specifically to trade and manager orders on synthetic spread pairs, and yes its pretty HFTish
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wonder for how long Ethena is comfortable paying this negative funding if it prolongs
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A bit misleading, every hard dollar in liquidity moves about 5$ in market cap. FTX was 9bil$ of hard liquidity given they sold user funds to gamble, acquire businesses and to pay off democrats/ republicans. So the real FTX damage is prob around 45bil$
Chainalysis has calculated which crypto catastrophe hurt investors the most this year, and it wasn’t FTX.
@dcanellis
reports
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Relevant observation not many people talk about this unless you browse Beijing twitter
Asian pump make sense because Chinese govt is printing.
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One of the largest forex, equities and commodities market maker realises on average 0.25bips per trade, after costs it's just about 0.1 bip. Crypto is really built different.
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who tf thought this headline was a good idea? Really putting that click-rate algo on full turbo
Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison is a math whiz who loves Harry Potter and taking big risks. She is also one of the supporting players in Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX catastrophe — and a new darling of the alt-right.
Read more:
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A riddle: if you deposit equal amounts of capital into a 3xLONGBTC/USD token AMM pool and 3xSHORTBTC/USD token AMM pool are you long gamma for free? If not what is the cost?
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things usually settle after ~300ms
meaning if you execute a market order on Coinbase, in size, it takes 150ms for that info to reach Binance, be processed and then sent back, another 150ms, to Coinbase
This also means anything within that 300ms is a big black box. Predicting
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those books got real thin real fast on that move, 100btc spot orders hitting with 1% slippage ouch
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lol his last like in freedom
Avraham "Avi" Eisenberg
@avi_eisen
was arrested yesterday in Puerto Rico and charged with market manipulation offenses.
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looks like someone piled on a billion doge of risk in the last two days
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you will see charting like this all the way up to new ATHs
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when you fire one too many employees
4chan leaked Metas LLaMA
#ai
-model /
The download is working and it's 219GB. /
@GaryMarcus
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@SimpelAlpha
You blew up, happens to the best of us all the time. Remember this isn't the end of anything, just part of the learning curve. After blowing up just gotta take a break and re-center. The investor who threatens you as no right in threatening you, crypto is high return HIGH RISK.
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Su didn't just larp about the supercycle, he was trading it to its fullest extent. Hats off for conviction
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Huobi cost of deposit insurance for the next 3 weeks is a whopping 4%, would you sell or buy this risk?
bet on Huobi insolvency on polymarket
Yes (Insolvent) = 20x return
Trade now:
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UST supply is contracting when price flips below the red line
something something game of musical chairs
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