Alessio Patalano
@alessionaval
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Professor of War & Strategy in East Asia | FRHistS | @warstudies | @kcl_CGS | Postwar Japan as a Seapower. Naval affairs. Strategy. Indo-Pacific. One ping only.
London, England
Joined March 2013
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Good morning twitter. Apologies I’m a little late at this, but in light of the debate over the utility of a British carrier group in the Indo-Pacific raised by
@FT
the other week, I thought I’d try to answer the question. Here some thoughts and a thread:
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Good morning Twitter. It appears one can comfortably assert that on 13 April 2022, a new piece of naval history was written in the context of this terrible affair that is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A thread on the RFN cruiser Moskva (pennant No 121):
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@CovertShores
@CIMSEC
Tonight Russian commanders will feel less secure as they reflect upon the fact that the BS is no longer their lake. It’s a box with no way out. It’s where denial has exposed the limits of control. Things have got much harder.
Signing off for now. Thank you for reading!
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Perhaps the most iconic symbolism around the role of the Moskva is captured in the shelling of Snake Island, with the now image of the Ukrainian soldiers responding in kind to the ship hailing them to surrender: the ultimate David vs Goliath challenge. Grit and Determination.
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@CovertShores
@CIMSEC
2. Politically, explaining why Russia could loose its flagship in the theatre where it has sea control is going to be hard - or even hide it;
3. Symbolically, Moscow is on fire. This is Ukraine response to Snake Island. This is David exposing Goliath’s disorientation.
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This raises important questions about familiar themes in this invasion so far:
a. Russian conops;
b. Russian confidence/underestimation of UKR;
c. Russian preparation and readiness.
This ship had no real business so close to shore; it clearly underestimated op risk;
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The dynamics confirm an old truth: fire is absolutely deadly threat to a naval combatant and if your crew and systems are not in tip top shape, that’s where the difference between success and defeat stands in war at sea.
@CovertShores
here is very helpful:
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Further, with the closure of the Bosporus to all warships, it also meant that this ship would be the main asset available to support Russian naval ops in the BS. Couple that with the current shift in op focus south, this is not just any ship. This is key asset. This is ‘Moscow’.
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So, what happened, and why does it matter?
We know from official sources that 2 Neptune missiles hit the ship and a major fire ensued. The ship was operating incredibly close to shore, which is remarkable given the limited point defence system it has.
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@CovertShores
@CIMSEC
More will be written on this, since this is one of the most severe naval losses since the Falklands War. I shall come back to this too in due time.
For now, expect some more turbulence on the naval front. As weapons arrive, denial will be on the menu.
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The extent to which the ship was in a less than ideal state is debatable, but a couple of things matter here:
1. this is the flagship of the BS Fleet of the RFN;
2. it’s primary mission was to secure sea control and exploit;
3. it saw action very early on in the invasion.
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This is relevant because it raises a question about battle-readiness and overall op condition. A ship first commissioned in 1983, it was recommissioned in 2000, and was supposed to undergo refit and upgrade in 2016 - but it did not.
My two cents on the "Moskva". While it was the flagship of the VMF's Black Sea fleet and it won awards it was in a pitiful state. Broader modernisation was cancelled in 2015 and what was done was mostly servicing and extension of power plant's life.
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Let’ be clear though. This wasn’t just about symbolism. Snake Island occupies a key strategic position for any op vs Odessa to take place, and RFN did what one would expect them to do early on: secure it. As the map shows this is an important place to prevent ops vs Odessa.
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This is not a spring chicken in naval terms. It's a venerable, battle hardened, major surface combatant. Saw action in Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, when it was sent to secure the BS - and sustained a hit.
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Images like this put to shame about a decade worth of academic writing about Chinese cautiousness in maritime disputes management.
The CCG launched a brutal assault on the AFP personnel aboard an AFP Rigid Hull Inflatable Boat (RHIB), aggressively ramming it and brandishing bladed and pointed weapons, explicitly threatening to harm AFP troops.
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@CovertShores
The one lesson that one can draw from these naval events is that sea denial is a real thing. And it can be done relatively cheaply - if geography and strategic objectives allow it. This here from
@CIMSEC
is spot on, and absolutely on the money:
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@CovertShores
On the other hand, we need to be very cautious about suggesting that sinking a ship is easy, or that there are ‘lessons’ for any other in here.. whether NATO, China, or anyone else… if I hear anyone making silly comparisons with Taiwan I might explore (sorry I digress).
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@CovertShores
@CIMSEC
So, as I pointed out here: earlier on today, there are three very important points to consider here (others as well but once things are clearer):
1. Militarily, the Russians are in a pickle on amphibious plans for Odessa;
Russian navy evacuates flagship Moskva in Black Sea. Ukraine claims it was hit by a missile - news about it continue to unfold. Some initial thoughts from yours truly here -
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Has anyone noted that whilst the UK is delivering military assistance to Ukraine, it is also delivering relief to Tonga, whilst the FS and the DS are in Australia to speak cooperation. This week seems to show that you can Tilt and be a European power. More soon to recap.
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Italian media reporting 7/8 rounds of 76mm at roughly 6km distance. If confirmed a real alternative to missiles - certainly cheaper - and evidence of targeting systems for a ship that was armed for AAW as a primary function. Good stuff.
Nave Duilio
#MarinaMilitare
abbatte drone nel
#MarRosso
.
"Gli attacchi terroristici degli Houthi sono una grave violazione del diritto internazionale e un attentato alla sicurezza dei traffici marittimi".
Così il Min.
@GuidoCrosetto
Leggi la notizia➡️
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Shinzo Abe: The legacy of Japan's longest-serving PM - an article full of old tropes that manages to miss entirely the crucial significance Abe’s legacy. My own thread on the statesman that has changed Japan’s role in international order:
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One thought on the side: having flown on a P-3C low altitude flyby, and having been at the receiving end of one, there is nothing threatening about this P-1 passage. Just nothing. Considering the circumstances that is.
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Press Release: Regarding the incident of an ROK naval vessel directing its fire-control radar at an MSDF patrol aircraft - long but quite instructive video on 3 accounts: 1. Flying distances were well within the ordinary for on scene observation; 1/2
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Ni hao Twitter. Quite a bit of coverage of the Pelosi trip to Taiwan and Chinese military reactions to it -thus far. Allow me to offer a few thoughts on the military dimension and wider strategic context, with maps and indeed links to Russia and the Black Sea. Oh Yes. A thread:
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Good morning Twitter. With a lot happening out there, this is a bit trifling. But on a personal note. It turns out I was promoted to Professor. The journey from the Neapolitan shores to the London riverbanks has been exciting. Thank you to the many that supported and mentored me.
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Good morning Twitter. I am back. Courtesy of the Russian Navy's commitment to test if and how naval warfare evolves. Yes, a thread about the 'naval drone' attack conducted at the WE by seemingly Ukrainian forces against the Black Sea Fleet. Spoiler alert: NOT. A. REVOLUTION.
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No. Japan never had a pacifist security policy. It has had a defence oriented one. And that doesn’t change.
After six decades of pacifist security policy, Japan will now arm itself with one of the world’s largest defence budgets to counter China
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Morning Twitter. First days of PLA exercises completed, new phase just settling in, a few thoughts to recap what we have seen so far and the wider significance -a thread about missiles, joint manoeuvres, and the value of micro signalling hidden behind lots of military activities:
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Tokyo terminates working level talks with Seoul after revealing new evidence on radar lock-on dispute | Last piece of the puzzle out. No place left to hide for the ROK.
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(1) Chinese warship nearly hits U.S. destroyer in Taiwan Strait during joint Canada-U.S. mission - just as everybody was shaking hands at SLD. Bit of a spammer. Also, this is the same USN DDG that rushed to the rescue of USNS Impeccable in 2009.
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2. Approaches from P-1 were conducted with monitoring of VHF channels with ample opportunity for ROKN vessel to engage P-1 instead of fa FC antenna; 3. Most problematic, ROKN vessel failed to respond to requests of clairification concerning FC antenna use. This is just unusual.
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Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America’s followers,’ says Macron – sure. Nothing to object in principle. But deeply tone deaf when the relayed pics are Macron with a massive ORC flag at the back, and at a time US support to UKR dwarfs Europe’s.
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Good evening twitter. I promised I’d come back to the sinking of the RFN cruiser Moskva (Pennant no 121) once more info were to become available. Here I am now. A thread reflecting on the most severe naval loss since the Falklands Wars: what happened, and its consequences.
Good morning Twitter. It appears one can comfortably assert that on 13 April 2022, a new piece of naval history was written in the context of this terrible affair that is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A thread on the RFN cruiser Moskva (pennant No 121):
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Simon McDonald: “It’s the end of the game for Britain” - read attentively, this interview is indicative of the malaise behind the perceived irrelevance: a type of senior official that has very little to contribute to make a country diplomatically relevant:
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Really excited about the cover for my upcoming vole 'The New Age of Naval Power in the Indo-Pacific'. It's a long time coming effort which saw some incredible scholars coming together - the content is hopefully as sharp as the cover! more on this soon :)
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Real conversation -
PLA officer: I really enjoyed your talk.
Me: thank you sir.
PLA officer: I don’t agree with all you said but I like the way you said it.
Me: well, I’m sure this is a promising start of a conversation.
PLA officer: would you like to work for the PLA?
Me:...
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Absolutely damming: ‘As a Marine, I fought in Iq and Afg and participated in Hurricane Katrina (…). As a journalist, I covered (…) Syria. Never have I witnessed a greater, swifter collapse of competence than what I have seen with the U.S. evacuation’.
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‘Very, very false’: Dutch minister quashes Beijing view on Ukraine at top security forum – great piece. Confirms that powers in the middle are seemingly the ones carrying the torch of speaking against Chinese distortions.
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Good evening. The pas few weeks have been quite eventful from a naval perspective. Several theatres have seen different types of action - all providing evidence of the declination of sea power in the contemporary world, and of how contested order at sea stands. A thread:
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Where is Russia taking Ukraine's stolen grain? - This is remarkable. Great job by BBC here, documenting the systematic nature of Russian theft. Also worth noting references to destruction of facilities which suggests 2023 will see UKR in economic trouble.
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Good morning Twitter. Some happy personal news. Yesterday I became the first academic to receive a Commendation of the Ambassador of Japan, one of 3 awards by the GoJ, for outstanding contribution to advance UK-Jpn ties if defence and security. It was an overwhelming honour -
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Let’s be serious. Anytime anyone pretends to portray China as a stakeholder in the maritime order just show this. Unacceptable to desecrate a war grave at sea. Utterly Shameful.
This is an absolutely disgusting operation: Chinese scrappers on the vessel CHUAN HONG 68 are breaking up the wrecks of British battleship PRINCE OF WALES and battlecruiser REPULSE, sunk Dec 1941. . Statement from the Royal Navy at
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Bringing back rams for the grey zone is quite the statement. Interesting the position, clearly suggesting it’s to knock out of action smaller vessels. Implying also some pretty remarkable RoEs.
When your China Coast Guard vessel is outfitted for bumper boats, you’re probably not upholding the rule of law.
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I’m not sure people realise how hard this is. 201 days. Absolutely remarkable.
The submarine that returned to Falsane yesterday had been on deterrent patrol for 201 days.
The crew are to be congratulated on yet another epic feat of endurance but are we pushing people and boats too hard?
Photo
@MichaelJWC626
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BBC on boat chased down by China in South China Sea - superb reporting here. Honestly this is when BBC towers above all others. Clear, informative, and enabling to understand the complexities on the ground. CCG getting very proficient harasser.
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Good morning Twitter. The long anticipated new frameworks of Japan's defence and security are out. On schedule as planned. Like clockwork. The original docs are here on the JMoD page - some initial thoughts which I will follow up on as I plow through them:
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What Is China’s Strategy in the Senkaku Islands? - Very grateful to
@WarOnTheRocks
for giving me the opportunity to clarify some of the latest changes in Chinese operational behaviour and stress how this dispute is not just a peripheral affair.
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Good eve Twitter. The maritime blockade of the Black Sea is an issue that should concern the international community, beyond it military relevance to the war in Ukraine. A short thread with the main arguments on my latest piece.
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Ok this is actually brilliant. Thank you
@simon_puxley
for steering me towards it.
Good work from a German ad agency which reads "protect the wildlife before it's too late"
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China accuses US of seeking ‘Asia-Pacific Nato’ - you never know you’re on the right track until the PLA vehemently opposes it. It’s so comforting they’re so consistent.
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An article by the Defence Secretary on the situation in Ukraine - Remarkable.
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@Bunkerhunter
It’ll take a while. They might even tow it back. But the fire must have been very extensive for evaluating the crew.
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Middle Powers: don't write off Britain and Japan - Engelsberg ideas - good morning Twitter. Saturday morning. Time to relax and do some reading to nurture the mind. I’ve got just the thing for you. Britain, Japan, and why those in the middle matter.
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Good evening Twitter. Tonight PM Sunak gave his first big foreign policy speech. The text is below. The PM comes as a politician with limited FP experience, and criticisms already are emerging which I think miss much needed context, so here is a thread:
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Japan wants de facto ‘Six Eyes’ intelligence status - this is an excellent article. Let me review some of the points made because this is where the Indo-Pac is getting incredibly interesting.
1. Japanese political maturity. Kono gave excellent answers.
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The ROK MND official video is now out and it’s a bit of an anti-climax. Here’s a few thoughts about it: 1. It’s not actually ROK video footage but JMOD footage with new captions. That’s neither very helpful or enlightening. 1/3
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Japan, Australia sign defense pact to counter China’s rise - good morning Twitter. I usually don’t like using the word ‘historic’ too easily. Yet today this new Reciprocal Access Agreement is a truly remarkable step. A few thoughts on its significance:
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The New Age of Naval Power | TIME - these past weeks, from the Black Sea to the Red Sea to the SCS - lots happening in the naval world. Here I explain why naval power matters today, it has to do with the connectivity that powers prosperity.
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Japan likely to come to Taiwan’s aid during a Chinese invasion - the basic headline is actually nothing really new, but the piece has some excellent comments in it from various observers.
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Chinese-owned firm acquires UK’s largest semiconductor manufacturer | A story that deserves attention, a matter of strategic importance, and thankfully
@TomTugendhat
is on the case.
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Winning without fighting? Why China is exploring 'cognitive warfare' | all war is cognitive - Clausewitz was always clear: war starts on the mind of the adversary when they do not bend to your will. A chilling and thoughtful piece. Some key passages:
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Twitter buona sera. Admittedly taking it slow to enjoy Easter, time has to some final reflections over the Macron visit to PRC and exceptional level of PRC military manoeuvres which concluded today. A thread:
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The New Age of Naval Power in the Indo-Pacific: Strategy, Order, and Regional Security - Kindle edition - out on 01 June. Now if that’s not your summer reading, I don’t know what is.
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There comes a time when dialogue bears no purpose. This is that time. The evidence is out there and short of compromising capabilities, JPN MoD did all it had to. The ROK case stands exposed and unbecoming of a military partner. A real shame for ROK-JPN relations.
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The pitfalls of modern battleship diplomacy - starting with the title this is a very disappointing read. What strikes me the most is the poor understanding of naval diplomacy informing it. Thread.
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Undersea cables and the vulnerability of American power - some important observations from
@aaronbateman22
here. There are a few reflections worth pondering - a quick thread:
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NATO removes Tokyo office mention from joint communique - excellent summary of what is fast becoming a rather anti-climatic petty drama.
@kenmoriyasu
makes sense of a situation that is embarrassing for it reveals about Europe-Asia ties: a 🧵:
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In all, Macron's visit -and crucially the interview that somehow created a context to it- was problematic because it displayed strategic illiteracy, downplayed European values and agency, and misrepresented international order. No wonder why many were not pleased with it.
Thanks!
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Wow. Last sentence. Definitive.
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Many will comment on Shinzo Abe in the hours and days to come. His death is shocking and hard to explain.
For my part, I’ve written about his role in changing Japan from a country that reacted to international events to a shaper of them.
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Taiwan needs more than weapons to thwart China’s ambitions. Good evening Twitter. Yesterday it was time to talk about Macron. Today some reflections on Taiwan. A piece and a thread from me:
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Japan to sign military pact with UK as allies eye China threat - misleading title. Really. It's the completion of the RAA. The irony is that given the topic there's no comment from either a UK or a Japan based expert. And it shows:
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Why NATO Should Stay Out of Asia | this type of article really leaves me puzzled. It both conflates engagement and misrepresents ambitions. A couple of points from the framing in the introduction:
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This account is turning out to be the most inspiring thing Twitter has seen since it turned into X. The simple, affectionate, and yet professional messages - are something that many should aspire to emulate. Truly.
Unsuspecting Petty Officer called to the bridge. She assumed she was in trouble until handed a cookie and placed in the Captain’s chair. 🍪
Message to family: “I love you and always thinking of you.”
Returned to work to do wiring repairs on fighter jets (electrician!). ⚓️⚡️
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I want to reassure everyone. I don't just spend my days in lovely cafes in Taipei reading books. I also stroll around parks and talk about military exercises. As one does.
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Ouch. Your reminder that European naval power is being tested in the Red Sea in a way that might help bringing it back to the cutting edge of command of the sea.
Although managing to shoot down 4 Houthi drones, 🇩🇰Danish frigate HDMS Iver Huitfeldt was unable to fire ESSM missiles at times while in action in the Red Sea due to integration issue with Dutch APAR radar and Danish C-FLEX Combat Management System.
76mm shells also exploded
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Important news - if anyone had any doubt, the whole AUKUs tension is now finished. That’s a game changer.
Australia and France agree on reciprocal Pacific military base access
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Johnson set to unnerve allies with ‘Global Britain’ defence review - this is a very good article, that perhaps unintentionally, is most revealing of the inadequacies of UK commentariat on strategic issues. Let me give it a go with a few thoughts:
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"Ships (..) are large floating pieces of national territory, and when you lose one, a flagship no less, the political and symbolic message -- in addition to the military loss -- stands out precisely because of it.”
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The more I read what analysts write about AUKUS, the more I realise modern naval warfare suffers from an astounding level of illiteracy in the community. This invigorates my decision to write the new book.
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The New Age of Naval Power in the Indo-Pacific: Strategy, Order, and Regional Security only a few weeks to go. If you want to understand why naval interactions matter in places like the Taiwan strait - this is your port of call. Pun intended. 😉
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Call me old-fashioned but the country top diplomatic official should never be resigned to irrelevance - it’s literally his job to correct that if it’s the case. One key reason is the inexperience of politicians. Seriously?
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China's Belt and Road Plan Is Destroying the World - genuinely didn’t know about this. Literally breathtaking if confirmed.
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Ok. This is big. I mean. Wow big.
"Regarding Japan’s decision to possess counterattack capabilities that would enable it to attack missile-launch bases and other targets in enemy territory, Yoon stated: “The current situation is that North Korea’s intermediate-range missiles fly over Japan. I well understand it.”
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Japan must disavow pacifism and embrace collective defense - I had mixed feeling as to whether to comment on this, but it keeps popping up on my feed, so here it goes. A thread:
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Joint Statement on U.S.-UK Consultations on the Indo-Pacific | Good evening Twitter. Yes. This is NOT a thread about Ukraine. I know. Very unfashionable. But also very significant so please bear with me. A few thoughts on an important statement:
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Let’s take the Izumo - for example. Who Would have thought that today Japan’s future F-35b operating carrier would be moored opposite to the USS Arizona memorial? This is an impressive and emotionally meaningful sight…
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Russian navy evacuates flagship Moskva in Black Sea. Ukraine claims it was hit by a missile - news about it continue to unfold. Some initial thoughts from yours truly here -
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2. It’s not helpful because the claim about the dangerous low altitude flight is not confirmed. Adding a few pictures of the aviation code doesn’t change the fact that the P-1 was at no point flying over the warship, nor the video shows distances that justify ROK claims 2/3
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Had he said that in reference to Putin it would have been a statement of moral value. He is the aggressor. By addressing the UKR President he’s going for the easy choice. Sad to see someone with his moral authority to choose this path.
Pope Francis in new interview: “Ukraine must have the courage to raise the white flag and to negotiate.”
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Evening Twitter. Greeting from Pearl Harbor. A 4th July thread about the US, about partners, and the importance of steel and statecraft I world affairs. First things first. Newest DDG USS Petersen and USS Monsoor. Symbolically two different versions of present and future…
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3. It’s not enlightening because ROK position remains fundamentally contradictory: if the P-1 was flying dangerously why didn’t the ship hailed it or engaged in comms? You can’t claim that someone is being dangerous - an ally nation no less - and behave as it didn’t exist. 3/3
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Watching BBC live, Adam looked at me - the sad face - and said ‘shall we watch the video of the Queen with Paddington?’ The genuine brilliance of a child. The genuine brilliance of a monarch who truly connected with an entire nation. Including a 6-year old. RIP.
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Good evening twitter. Last night at 10pm (BST) AUKUS, a new trilateral defence agreement between Australia, UK and the US was announced. This is an important story which has received much attention. Allow me a few thoughts. A long-ish thread:
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Happy to report that the Romans have convinced the Vikings to join them in establishing the first allied standing naval response group. Mixed crews, interchangeable oars. Integrated deterrence within our grasp. No spy ballon spotted. So far. We remain vigilant.
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The utter tone deafness of a man sitting in an office of one of the country’s leading universities, dismissing the crucial value of his profession out of resignation and geographical determinism? I mean seriously?
Sure - he did speak up at a crucial time. But that’s no excuse.
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As a PM, he defined for the Indo-Pacific why and how rule of law matters. He created the bodies that today make Japan a crucial international actor. He places the maritime at the heart of national security strategy.
Today’s Japan, is Abe’s Japan. Farewell to a political giant.
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Exclusive: Navy chief Tony Radakin to be next head of the Armed Forces | let me say this: we all thought it, none of us wanted to say it. But if ever there was a sign that the IR is about a major strategy shift, this is it. Britain is going Maritime again.
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US and allies to build 'China-free' tech supply chain - a move that, if fully implemented, will cement Japan’s position as THE link between the US and the IP, and THE link for China to look at to mitigate an increasingly hostile environment.
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