bwatts
@_bwatts_
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$SPY $SPX Every bear market rally in 2022 has ended inside the bear market downtrend resistance zone while hitting the .618 retracement measured from preceding high to low 🤔⌛️
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$SPY $SPX Everything is aligning for top to come next Tuesday ⌛️
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$LCID WHAT A DAY!! We're getting closer to my Wave 3 target area. Many of you have been following my Lucid charts for a while, we have been killing it! I appreciate everyone who takes the time to leave a comment or share my work 🙏🙏🙏 Have a great weekend!
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$SPY $SPX Q1 JPM Collar trade. Their 41,000 calls at $4060 hit today. Are their puts that are waiting at $3600 next? 🧲
$SPY $SPX Landmines for Q1 23 to add to the calendar. Rumored that JPM rolled the collar to 3/31. Unconfirmed but 82k contracts opened for 3/31, 41k in calls and 41k in puts, makes sense. Today closed $4 over the Dec. JPM Collar so this is worth keeping an eye on. Happy New Year.
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$SPY $SPX Besides the bear market downtrend resistance level, we are also nearing uptrend resistance that dates back to 2012. What would justify the markets trading back above this level? These 2 levels intersect around $408.
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$SPY $SPX Just an observation, but here is the reason I was hoping to see a pullback after Wednesday's high rather than seeing another high first..
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$SPY Looks to be setting up for a bounce next week. Have a good weekend 🤝
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$SPY $SPX Today should have wrapped up the first of 3 waves to complete the final leg of the correction. We could hit $400 on Monday before the pullback. After the pullback I am expecting a test of the 200dma but price to go no higher than $413. Have a good weekend 🍻
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$SPY $SPX Over the weekend I saw so many flipping from their bearish outlook. I don't see any reason to do this as long as price is under December highs. Maybe mega-tech q4 earnings can catapult price through all this resistance, maybe not. Still my preferred outlook.
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$SPY This is not a reversal structure off August 18 low. This is corrective price action. That does not mean it cannot go higher, but this counter rally will follow with a move below 433, imo. Image 2 is the daily chart. We can see price is nearing back tests of lost horizonal
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$SPY do we finally get a decent pullback this week due to Moody's downgrading US rating outlook to negative? Other landmines this upcoming week are CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday.
Here's a potential variation of the IHS everybody shared last weekend. There is a lot of
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$SPY $SPX 3 possibilities. Image 1, small move up then selloff to new lows. Image 2, more near-term downside, move up to around $430 then selloff to new lows. Image 3, top is in, headed to $320-$300. Preferred count is image 1. Ignore dates on the charts.
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$LCID My favorite pattern, Inverse Head and Shoulders. It's a little sloppy, but the key levels are in place. If this plays out the target would be approximately $55 and change.
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Weekly charts for $SPY $MSFT $AAPL $NVDA
Image 1, $SPY symmetrical triangle. Back up to the weekly resistance zone that marked the July top. Breakout over this zone opens 473-490.
Image 2, $MSFT rising wedge. Nearing the top of the rising wedge and my upside targets. Tons of
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$LCID Possible Wave 4 Triangle is becoming more clear. This raises Wave 5 target to $95 🤯 Target based on a shallow Wave E (very common). POC is roughly $51.50. This is where I think Wave E ends.
$LCID 🤔 If wave 3 is extended (it is), then wave 1 and 5 are often nearly equal in magnitude and duration. If equality is lacking, a 61.8% relationship is next most likely. Equality would have wave 5 ending on approximately December 16th. 61.8% relationship has no timeframe.
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$SPY $SPX Every top has had the same series of events. Hit downtrend resistance, gap below the 10sma, then the 10sma crosses below the 20sma. All of that happened this week. This time we can add Bearish Divergence to the potential top. Maybe this time will be different? 💀
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$LCID Private offering. Ignore the FUD. This is Lucid once again looking out for their shareholders. We all knew Lucid needed to raise money before the end of 2022. A private offering is what I've been hoping for. This was a solid move by Lucid 💪
Lucid Group Announces Proposed Convertible Senior Notes Offering $LCID
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@NotMsJennyLopez
,
@JazzyLove_LCID
, and I are making a Lucid focused Discord. News, chart updates, and discussion- much like here on Twitter but without all the outside noise. Who's interested in joining?
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$LCID “We remain confident in our ability to achieve 20,000 units in 2022."
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Here are 4 possibilities for $LCID. The 4th image is a bear count which shows the higher upside to follow. However, I firmly believe the past 2 weeks we have been working through a Wave 4. There are a couple other possibilities for Wave 4 but the 3rd image shows max downside.
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$SPX A chart for the bears. Friday's "selloff" found support at the 9 EMA but we also saw a MACD bear cross and have bearish divergence in place.
The alleged Santa Rally includes the first two trading days of the year, so hypothetically we could start the week off with more
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$SPY $SPX Alt count shared beginning of December has 2 most likely ways of extending the Wave B. If there is a bigger pullback first, around $370 will be a key area. Image 2 is my more bearish scenario. Big tech earnings over the next 2 weeks, rate hike Feb 1, CPI print Feb 14.
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$SPX Every 5 down has led to a test of the upper trendline. We are currently at or very near the completion of another 5 down. Hammer on the daily, support from Covid low AVWAP, .382 fib just below at $3815. One more leg up before we head to $3200/$320 $SPY.
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$LCID daily chart looks like it's close to making the next move up. 💰💰💰
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$SPY Back on November 26th I shared the breakout target range of 473 and 490, and here we are 🎯
490 is aligned with the top of the uptrend channel and seems likely with the strong weekly close into new ATHs. When we get the next pullback I will be eyeing the s/r zone between
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$SPY $SPX Bear flag with negative divergence heading into CPI tomorrow 🤔
$SPY $SPX Right to the top of the s/r zone 🧲 There is still room up to the .618 fib level before any bigger move down. *If* that was the top of Wave 2 the Wave 3 down target will be between $350 and $335. If that was a Wave B, C can bottom as high as $370.
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$LCID here is my main chart. I haven't tweeted it in a while. Previous charts were looking at the smaller moves. The move from $43 to $57 to $46 appears to me to be impulsive. I can see that being Waves 1 and 2 and now we're starting Wave 3. My target remains $70-$80.
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$LCID what a crazy week it's been 🤯 Here's the updated bull and bear counts going forward. I'm sure you can guess which one I am leaning towards. Both are possible- have a plan if you're not long. No timeframe in mind for either possibility.
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$LCID is still in the uptrend channel- also in oversold territory. This morning we filled the gap left on the daily chart from the 15th. I'd expect to see Divergence on RSI if the uptrend was done, I do not see that.
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$LCID Could very well still be inside Wave 4. When price action is bouncing so much the weekly chart may be a better way to view the trend. Based on the weekly chart, Wave 5 will end anywhere between $65 and $82 and has room to go lower first if needed. No timeframe in mind.
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$LCID lining up more deliveries! 🔥
We counted 31 cars in the waiting area today plus a car hauler taking some away. New Record! Next flyover of Lucid coming out later today!
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$SPX $SPY Finally seeing bearish divergence setting up on the daily chart 👀
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Alright everyone, $LCID killed it this week. Massive two day selloff and still finished the week up 25%. Enjoy your weekends 🍻
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$LCID These are the two highest probabilities at this time. This chart combines two of my previous charts together.
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$LCID deliveries 🔥
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If you were short $LCID or had PUTs (outside of simply hedging) I certainly hope you took this morning's opportunity to close your positions. LUCID IS A BEAST!
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$LCID we destroyed all the smaller possibilities today and I was able to remove them from the bigger chart. What a day! Congratulations to everyone that has been holding through all the ups and downs. Today many people banked. Me, I'm never selling.
$LCID Here are all the possibilities I can find at the moment for this uptrend. Includes a bear count so no one is caught off guard (I find this possibility extremely unlikely). Not trying to be biased, but I am leaning towards the orange target area based on upcoming catalyst.
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$LCID FINALLY broke out of a 3-week downtrend. Let's see if we can start working back up the chart from here.
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$SPY Here are my levels for the rest of this month and November. Many of these levels are same as my previous chart with a few additions. We've pretty much gone nowhere bigger picture but have had many great trading setups, and that's all that matters.
After price dropped the
$SPY closed Thursday under the August low. That is where this thread started 3-4 weeks ago- pointed out that the bounce off August 18 low was corrective and we would take that level out ✅ Also gave multiple tradable targets in both directions that paid very well along the way 🤝
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$SPY $SPX My Elliot Wave count for entire correction. I have end of Jan 23’ $314-$306 as next potential bottom. The start of Wave C of Y has not been confirmed so the $306 target could change if we see Wave B extend and put in a new high. Stay flexible, nothing is a sure bet 🤝🏼
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$LCID Once again Lucid is showing strength on a red day in the market. I am looking at a possible Leading Diagonal as a potential Wave 1 of 5.
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$LCID “PIF dump incoming” “It’s going to be a bloodbath” “you’re dumb if you think they don’t sell at least 10%” Where all these people at today? You mean these large accounts don’t know what they’re talking about? Looks like we’re still holding $40 🤷🏻♂️
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$SPY $SPX short-term outlook. X could hit $408 before heading lower but the selloff from Thursday's darkpool levels looked pretty impulsive. Leaning towards a move to $400 next week.
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$LCID what a day 🙄 The possible Wave 5 is hanging on by a thread and that target has lowered to $67. We're sitting on a large Volume Shelf on the 4 hour and the 50 MA on the daily. If we do not bounce tomorrow, I believe we hit $33 next.
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$LCID Air Pure qualifies for the new increased tax credit of $12.5k. This bring the price down to $64.9k. We are going to sell a shit ton of these in 2022 💰💰💰
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$LCID I am looking for $47 to $50 on this next leg up 🔥
$LCID we destroyed all the smaller possibilities today and I was able to remove them from the bigger chart. What a day! Congratulations to everyone that has been holding through all the ups and downs. Today many people banked. Me, I'm never selling.
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$SPY here's a support/resistance zone and heavy weekly resistance zone that price likely blows through like swiss cheese in the near future 🤡😂
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$LCID great start to 2022! I am looking for about $41.50 from here.
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$SPY Weekly log scale. Current leg up can hit $420-$430, still bearish. Another leg down makes far more sense than a new all-time high from current levels. I don't do analogs, but I found this interesting. March 02' put in 5 down then 2 up with Hidden Bearish Divergence 🤔
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$SPY $SPX Everyone still flipping bullish, and I still see zero reason to do so. Price is still under the bear market downtrend zone. Microsoft poor forward guidance tanked the markets AH and that'll follow into tomorrow 📉
$SPY $SPX Over the weekend I saw so many flipping from their bearish outlook. I don't see any reason to do this as long as price is under December highs. Maybe mega-tech q4 earnings can catapult price through all this resistance, maybe not. Still my preferred outlook.
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$LCID Seeing a possibility that bottom is in or is very near. Bullish Divergence is clear as day. I don't expect much to finish today so looking at next week for Lucid to show some signs of life. Have a good weekend 🍻
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This worked last time. Let's see if it's got any magic left. Market reversal jam. Let's go! 💰💰💰
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$SPY A bounce to start the week made sense. However, I'm not so sure the move down is complete. Seeing two possibilities that require another low. Over $443.35 we can start looking at the fib levels shown above.
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$LCID here are 3 possibilities I can see from here. The first two images are uptrends and the third is corrective.
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$AAPL First miss since 2016 🫠 I believe what I am showing here in blue is the downtrend channel and price action above and below I consider extreme. Price hit the top today. Looking for a move down to the swing low AVWAP first, but ultimately to the bottom of the channel.
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$SPY $SPX We hit all the targets this week🎯 Road map for next week: Inflation data on Tue. (CPI) and Wed. (PPI). Cool prints and we could head back up to the red resistance zone. Hot prints and we see the channel breakdown and head to the $366-$376 range. Have a good weekend 🤝
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$LCID PIF filing from 2/14 reflects the same amount of shares they’ve always had. So many large accounts swore PIF would dump or sell 10% and still maintain majority. Some of these accounts even told people they were stupid if they didn’t think PIF would sell at least some 😂😂😂
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$LCID 🔥🔥🔥
$LCID On Monday, December 20 Lucid Group Inc. will be added to the Nasdaq-100 Index®, which is composed of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market.
#LucidMotors
🔥
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$SPY closed Thursday under the August low. That is where this thread started 3-4 weeks ago- pointed out that the bounce off August 18 low was corrective and we would take that level out ✅ Also gave multiple tradable targets in both directions that paid very well along the way 🤝
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$LCID Customer reservations rose to 13,000 in Q3, reflecting an order book of approximately $1.3B, and have since increased beyond 17,000 🔥
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$SPY $SPX I shared this idea on a few comments as an alternate scenario. With more price history we can close in more on how that would look. I think being Wave 1 would be a very low probability but could be Wave A of a bigger corrective move to $430.
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$QQQ Today the gap at $348.50 filled. There is another gap at $359.93 but with price at the .618 fib retracement, 2 resistance levels, and almost zero bears left standing, caution advised. If the structure is in fact a WXY and X is in, long-term target is .786-1.0 fib ext. of W/X
$QQQ Ended last week at the .5 fib retracement from 2018 low to all-time high, Covid low AVWAP, and potential S/R trendline from pre Covid high through June 2022 low. Also seeing bullish divergence on RSI. Considering either a Flat or Expanded Flat for Wave X. Longer-term PT $220
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$LCID is establishing a base at every dollar level. Such a healthy way to move up the chart!
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$SPY $SPX Same as the August top, we're head back to retest the 10sma. Same as the August top, that retest aligned with the swing high AVWAP. The rejection in August led to a move down to between the 1.272 and 1.618 Fib Extension. Maybe this time will be different 🤷🏻♂️
$SPY $SPX Every top has had the same series of events. Hit downtrend resistance, gap below the 10sma, then the 10sma crosses below the 20sma. All of that happened this week. This time we can add Bearish Divergence to the potential top. Maybe this time will be different? 💀
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$SPY $SPX Found support at the October low uptrend, 50dma, and the .5 fib retracement from Dec. low to Feb high. However, just below is a spot that should be more of a magnet for price- the 200dma, Oct. low AVWAP, .618 fib retracement, and a retest of the bear market downtrend.
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$SPY $SPX The bear chart is setup for a multiweek downtrend to Fed 14 CPI print. Potential H&S pattern could set up over the next month as we make our way down to the $360 JPM Collar to close q1. Alts still in play as well ➡️
$SPY $SPX Alt count shared beginning of December has 2 most likely ways of extending the Wave B. If there is a bigger pullback first, around $370 will be a key area. Image 2 is my more bearish scenario. Big tech earnings over the next 2 weeks, rate hike Feb 1, CPI print Feb 14.
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$LCID 9.5 month long Cup and Handle Pattern completed this morning 👀 Breakout level is recent high of $61.91. Target is depth of the handle. Cannot close a candle lower than the invalidation line or the pattern fails.
$LCID Sip This Tea ☕️ 🔥 Being Besties with the Great Chart Master
@bwatts_81
has its Perks! 😉
A Peek into Mission
#DreamCup
tracking in progress!🤫 ⚡️🔋🏎🏆
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$LCID Mid-$35s was resistance turned to support on Thursday. Tested and passed both on Friday and this morning. Now we are finding support around $36.50. I wouldn't be shocked to see a day or two of accumulation before making the next move.
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$SPY $SPX Elliot Wave update. Few options: About to start 3 of 5 to complete 1 or A down. Truncation Wave 5 and are working on Wave 2 or B up. Or Wave 4 Triangle. We will know early next week but the end of day run up mostly looks like a Wave C Ending Diagonal to complete 2.
$SPY $SPX Elliot Wave count. Looks like an Impulse Wave down off Yesterday's high. Wave 4 requirements have been met but has room to go higher before putting in 5 down. Also notice the bear flag pattern 📉
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$LCID with a 27% move up from my $5.48 target. Up against resistance now at the 50dma and previous support turned resistance. If price can breakout, the gap at $7.49, downtrend resistance zone, swing high AVWAP, and gap at $9.82 are all potential short-term targets. 🤝
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$SPY $SPX Daily chart. Price moves quickly through the volume gap. Closed today at the PoC. If price can get over the PoC the 200sma, .618 fib retracement of "1 or A", and BM downtrend resistance is waiting just above. Hard to imagine price breaking through all of that 🤷🏻♂️
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$LCID annnnd we're off to a great start! Expect up and downs along the way. Get that money, have a great Friday and weekend 🍻
$LCID what a crazy week it's been 🤯 Here's the updated bull and bear counts going forward. I'm sure you can guess which one I am leaning towards. Both are possible- have a plan if you're not long. No timeframe in mind for either possibility.
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Everyone is pointing out the breakout on $QQQ but what if it is just a bull trap like the bear trap end of October?
(This is not a prediction. I do not care if the market goes up or down)
Markets by their very nature set traps- they flush below supports, trap shorts, then squeeze. They probe above resistances, trap longs, then sell. The best times to trade are *after* the traps. If you can't answer who just got trapped before you enter, it's likely going to be you
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$LCID I’m ready to hit $32+ this week. Next week is acceptable too but it’s time to start breaking through some resistance. Hope everyone had a good weekend. Time to get back to work in the morning 💪🏼
$LCID this morning's bounce couldn't have been more perfect. The trend channel held to perfection. I would not expect any lower lows if the uptrend is to continue. If this channel fails look for a move down to the red 2 other wise I am looking for a move to the green target area.
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$509.85 🎯✅
Since the October 2022 bottom (with one exception) a weekly close below the weekly 5 EMA has triggered multi-week selloffs. Going back to the October 2023 bottom, this section of the uptrend has been riding the weekly 5 EMA without fail. Until this changes, I will
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$LCID 🤔 If wave 3 is extended (it is), then wave 1 and 5 are often nearly equal in magnitude and duration. If equality is lacking, a 61.8% relationship is next most likely. Equality would have wave 5 ending on approximately December 16th. 61.8% relationship has no timeframe.
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$LCID Broke through both downtrend channels 🔥🔥🔥
$LCID 🤔 If wave 3 is extended (it is), then wave 1 and 5 are often nearly equal in magnitude and duration. If equality is lacking, a 61.8% relationship is next most likely. Equality would have wave 5 ending on approximately December 16th. 61.8% relationship has no timeframe.
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$LCID Lucid bolstered its balance sheet to close Q3 with approximately $4.8B in cash 💰💰💰
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$LCID $AMZN 🔥🔥🔥
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$SPY $SPX We could see one more leg up the chart to $413. If not, the count fits as completed when we hit $410. The initial move down from $410 doesn't look impulsive so one more leg up makes sense but that doesn't always matter.
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I believe I can see why a lot of $TSLA investors hate $LCID. I believe there is room for all but these pictures tell a great story. 👇
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$SPY $SPX There's always the chance we rally to close out the year, but if not and today was the end of the BMR, the current target for the next leg down is $325.
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$LCID Another fabulous day for Lucid! I'm expecting to hit the top of the channel. Could be today or Monday. What happens from there will give us a better idea of what to expect going forward. Have a great weekend everyone 🍻
$LCID with this morning's dip I was able to find a count that puts bottom in. However, it would take a lot of buying pressure to break through the triangle pattern to the upside. I'd have to assume a lot of money is waiting to see what happens on the 19th. Bear count in red.
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$LCID Weekly chart looks great off recent bottom. This past week's candle closed above the downtrend resistance. Mid-term target should be around $50. Shorter-term target should be the supply between $25-$30.
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$SPY if the structure does not hold the $403-401 range should be the next decision area. OPEX is tomorrow so I'm thinking we see the actual move from CPI and PPI next week if the markets are going to take this data as bearish. Otherwise we just keep going up for no good reason 😂
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$SPY $SPX 1-hour Elliott Wave Count. Positive Divergence breakdown most likely confirmed that 2 or B is in. Looking for the lower degree Wave 1 to complete this week, maybe tomorrow based on what the daily chart I shared earlier shows.
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$LCID if it doesn't drop too much lower than today's low, we're looking at a pretty big Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern. The target would be roughly $28.
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$SPY Could be a fake out. Could be a breakdown. Upside targeting $442.79. Downside targeting $431.73.
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$SPX $SPY might try to fill the gap with a CPI/PPI pump this week but it's still just a matter of time before the markets head lower. Image 2, considering a wave b of B running flat (shown in blue) and wave C is in or nearing its top.
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$LCID has done everything to perfection on this move up from $33. As long as $36 holds I like it to complete this first of 5 waves in the $39s. Main chart in the comment section.
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