President Trump to halt enforcement of law banning bribery of foreign officials and said it will “mean a lot more business for America”. Via @FT Going forward, apparently, American companies will be allowed to bribe foreign officials especially benefiting mining transactions. “It sounds good on paper, but in [practice] it’s a disaster,” Trump said. “It means that if an American goes over to a foreign country and starts doing business over there legally, legitimately or otherwise, it’s almost a guaranteed investigation, indictment and nobody wants to do business with the Americans because of it.” The White House said US national security required strategic advantages in various infrastructure assets, such as critical minerals and deep-water ports.

#Ethiopia’s Reforms Will Bring “Tremendous Rewards”: IMF’s Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, via @barronsonline The IMF last July 2024 approved a three- year $3.4 billion ECF for Ethiopia (the largest amount provided to any country in SSA) to support the country’s economic reforms. MY VIEW: The MD’s statements indicate very positive and encouraging progress of the economic reforms so far while acknowledging there’s still more work to be done to fully realize the benefits of the reforms. Below are quotes from the MD’s official press statements (via @AFP) while visiting Ethiopia for the first time this past weekend. 1. "The reform program that Ethiopia has embraced is tough, it takes time, but it will bring tremendous rewards” 2. GDP growth was 8.1% in 2024, much higher than a previous estimate of 6.1%, thanks to the "freeing up of space for private initiative”. 3. "Inflation is going down and that is particularly important for the people in Ethiopia that find themselves struggling with high prices.” Context note: Inflation has decreased from around 35% two years ago to 16.9% last month, according to Ethiopia’s central bank (NBE).

BIG congratulations Group CEO Ato Mesfin Tasew! Running a $7.1 billion multinational, which also happens to be Africa’s largest airline, requires world class leadership. So, the recognition you received is will deserved! As always, very proud of Ethiopian Airlines. #Ethiopia

Positive Trend: Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) reliance on intra-regional FDI (from within SSA) has increased significantly. It was 21% of the total inward SSA FDI stock in 2020-23, up from 14.7% in 2010-19. This FDI trend shows self-reliance by SSA is doable. Via @fDiIntelligence Africa is NOT a priority for global investors and therefore intra-regional FDI will have to play an increasingly significant role. SSA’s intra-regional FDI stock is the highest of any developing region in the world. For instance the SSA intra-regional FDI stock’s share is more than double the 8.5% in Latin America and the Caribbean and four times the 4.9% in the Middle East and North Africa.

Insightful conversation! #Brazil’s worldclass knowledge, knowhow and technology in agriculture is precisely why the private equity fund - Global Food Security Fund 1 (GFSF1) - was established. GFSF1 is a US$500 million São Paulo based fund planning to invest in African agriculture to strengthen food security and transform the continent’s agriculture sector through value-addition and expanding exports. The fund’s tag line is “From Farm to Fork”. GFSFI1 is managed by Planner, one of Brazil’s largest investment banks and fund managers in partnership with our Washington D.C. based firm, Fairfax Africa Fund, LLC (U.S.). GFSF1 will initially invest in several Eastern African countries including #Rwanda, #Kenya, #Ethiopia, #Zambia, #Tanzania, #Mozanbique and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In subsequent phases, the fund will invest in other African countries.

75th Jubilee anniversary of the association of graduates of Commercial College of Addis Abeba, colorfully celebrated on Saturday. My father - Negatu W/Yohannes - studied at the college more than 70 years ago. So, it’s an honor to be invited to speak at his alma mater. #Ethiopia My dad and his generation of finance and management professionals were pioneers who established and/or managed some of the most notable financial institutions and well known private companies in Ethiopia, from the late 1940s until the communist came to power in 1974 and nationalized everything and eliminated the then gradually emerging entrepreneurial spirit

CNBC TV “Power Lunch” interview. Trump 2.0 is a wake-up call for Africa to be self-reliant and transformationally monetize its vast natural resources & huge demographic advantages. New tag line - “Africa First” @limukii_f

Happy Chinese New Year to all our friends, partners and colleagues around the world! 新年快乐 #HappyChineseNewYear #Yearofthesnake2025

Addis Media Network (AMN) has launched a new podcast. Pleasure to be the first guest. Highlight: Strong public & private sector institutions key to build a successful economy. Cited Singapore’s success. AMN is the official media of the govt of Addis Abeba, #Ethiopia’s capital.

The U.S. govt halted ALL foreign aid worldwide for 90 days except for emergency food aid and military aid to Israel and Egypt. This will have a big impact on many projects around the world including in Africa. U.S. govt aid budget was $70 billion in 2022. Via: @FT President Trump stated in his EO issued on Inauguration Day that foreign aid is “not aligned with American interests and in many cases antithetical to American values”. Could this be the start of Washington’s shift from aid to trade and investments? Will Africa benefit from this changing U.S. economic positioning?

“The direct sea access #Ethiopia secured with #Somaliland is a WONDERFUL deal for Ethiopia since it diversifies the bottleneck in #Djibouti where everything has to come through at very high prices”: @DrJPPham, expected to be President Trump’s top State Dept. official for Africa. It’s refreshing and encouraging to hear such enlightened and realty based comments from an incoming senior U.S. government official soon to head African policies for State. Perhaps the U.S.’s new much talked about shift from “aid to investment and trade” has already started. Glad to know that Dr. Pham and Ambassador @TiborPNagyJr, former U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia, who just rejoined the state Dept, and who knows the region very well, will influence the big U.S. economic policy changes coming to the Horn. This should be very good news for implementing pragmatic U.S. policies to support the transformation of the economies in Eastern Africa, including Ethiopia, the region’s largest economy and Africa’s second most populous country.

Africa and President Trump 2.0 My interview with India’s @firstpost TV. Will there be a shift towards more investment and trade with Africa and less focus on aid? Will Africa continue to be a low strategic priority for the U.S.? VIDEO YouTube:

#Ethiopia: The IMF approves $250 million draw as part of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The ECF was approved by the IMF Executive Board in July 2024 and forms part of a US$10.7 billion support package from development partners and creditors for Ethiopia. The IMF stated: 1) All quantitative performance criteria were met. 2) The Ethiopian authorities have demonstrated strong commitment to achieving the objectives of the Fund-supported program. Implementation of ECF-supported reforms is advancing well. 3) Foreign exchange market functioning has continued to improve with the authorities taking significant policy actions to strengthen market efficiency. NBE has maintained tight monetary and financial conditions, and modernization of the monetary policy framework is advancing. 4) Progress in raising domestic fiscal revenues, strengthening state-owned enterprises, and anchoring financial stability is promising, with continued commitment needed to sustain the achievements thus far. Expanding social safety nets is critical to mitigating the impact of reforms on vulnerable people. 5) The authorities continue their efforts to restore debt sustainability and are taking steps to secure a debt treatment. The progress made on debt restructuring negotiations under the Common Framework is welcome. The financing assurances received, and adjustment efforts made are consistent with IMF policy requirements and program parameters. 6) Progress in raising domestic fiscal revenues, strengthening state-owned enterprises, and anchoring financial stability is promising. Full statement:

Here’s the BBC’s story on the launch of #Ethiopia’s new stock exchange (ESX). The BBC describes ESX as “a bold vision for Ethiopia’s future”. The story includes interviews with ESX’s CEO Tilahun Kassahun and myself.

Top 10 Fastest-Growing Economies in the World in 2025: 7 are African 2 BRICS - India & Ethiopia 1.Guyana 16.3%* 2.South Sudan 14.6%** 3.Libya 10.3%** 4.Palau 8.5% 5.Niger 8.3% 6.#Senegal 7.9% 7.#Rwanda 6.8% 8.#Ethiopia 6.7%*** 9.India 6.5%**** 10.Côte d'Ivoire #CIV 6.5% Analysis (highlights): * Major new oil producer, 900K/day ** Growth due to expected post conflict recovery *** BRICS member. Only one of Africa’s five largest economies in top 10. Growth driven by sweeping structural economic reforms and billions of dollars in support for the reforms by international partners such as the IMF and World Bank **** BRICS member. Only one of the world’s five largest economies in top 10. Growth driven by industry and services and benefit from its burgeoning, young population and manufacturing investment by international firms looking to pivot away from China Source of data and graph: @FocusEconomics

I had the honor to give the Keynote speech yesterday in Ghana at the conference on “Sustainability as a Solution to Global Business Challenges” and spoke about investing in Africa and the continent’s role in a changing world. Opened my speech discussing “Mega Trends” that could impact Africa especially the election of President Trump and how Africa should prepare and adapt to his “America First” policies. Discussed Opportunities: 1) how Africa can leverage its abundant renewable energy resources, 2) how Africa can create significant sustainable wealth as the world increasingly relies on the continent’s huge reserve of natural resources. For instance the global economy depends on Africa to power EVs, cell phones, etc. 3) how Africa can transform its agriculture sector and become food self-sufficient and even export to the rest of the world. But private capital needs to be deployed. As an example, I cited the $500 million “Global Food Security Fund I”, a private equity fund which will invest in Africa’s agriculture, was recently established in São Paulo, Brazil, by a large Brazilian investment bank in partnership with our U.S. based investment firm, as one model for attracting and deploying global capital. 4) how Africa can convert its huge demographic dividends to economic power, just like China and India did, 5) how certain African countries have the real potential to be manufacturing hubs while other countries can do beneficiation of their natural resources in-country and export value-added products instead of raw commodities Challenges: Shared my views 1) how real and perceived risks deter investments. For instance only $50 billion FDI last year for 54 African countries despite trillions of dollars of available investable capital around the world, 2) need to improve the ease of doing business. Private capital flows where it’s most welcome and protected, 3) Africa has too many small fragmented markets and just five countries account for 50% of Africa’s GDP. Hence, the need for collaboration amongst countries - large and small. Implementation of AfCFTA is key for the continent’s economic growth. Concluded by stating that Africa will play an increasingly important role in the global economy but key changes need to be made. Recommended the Asian development model, adapted to each African country’s reality, as a model to consider. “How Asia Works” is one of my favorite books and recommended it to the conference attendees. Note: Keynote delivered via Zoom