Zav Corin
@ZavCorin
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Trad-Ed, Choice-Friday-ed, PM-ed, Partner-ed, EuroHedge-Ed, Proud Father-ing, Cycl-ing, Ski-ing, Chamifi-ed, BREXIT-Ed, RegTech-ing, EM watch-ing, lov-ing it
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Pinned Tweet
The $ bull case 😅😅😅
This is quite a video. Every so often you just need to zoom out and reflect on how insane everything has become.
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@davidmarcus
“I vote for Republicans because they are … checks notes… pro crypto”
Maybe worth searching online for a single person who has worked for him who does not think he is the biggest threat to democracy there is … not the imaginary deep state“that hated crypto”you are describing
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1. Ukraine creditors committee
2. Zambia creditors committee
3. Greece creditors committee
4. Argentina creditors committee
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@lofejoma
@CNEWS
@SoMabrouk
Je vous écoute depuis des années dans la matinale de France Inter, mais la je suis desolé, s'attaquer a l'intervieweuse politique de l'émission d en face est d'une bassesse sans limites, et au lieu de vous excuser, vous en remettez... honteux, honteux, honteux...
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Broke :
@boazweinstein
and decades of trading macro risk to 17,000 followers
Woke :
@MacroAlf
copy and paste to the plebs 3 minutes later
Great minds think alike, right ?
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@cycletips123
Pidcock cycles 11 months / year and is among top 5 in 3 disciplines… and he is super likeable … of course he deserves the most cash
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Tell me you have never seen an emerging market new issue book building without telling me you have never seen an emerging market new issue book building
El Salvador's bond already 30% filled with verbal commitments before it has even launched!
Ways to make the bond more attractive:
- 'Full family' citizenship for $250k+
- Early bird access to buy plots in
#Bitcoin
city ($500k+?)
- Use as collateral for trading on Bitfinex
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1/xx This is the KEY problem for EM...
Thread...
Dangote Cement’s $500m Ethiopia Plant at Risk as War Escalates -
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The legend is back ! The ex EM trader who hit the bid on the 100 Year Argie bond demand and got to the Hall of Fame for the best trade ever !
Luis Caputo, who helmed Argentina's central bank during part of Mauricio Macri’s government, is now leading the economic transition team of President-elect Javier Milei
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@Noahpinion
“I don’t think parents reading their children bedtime stories should constantly have in their minds the way that they are unfairly disadvantaging other people’s children, but I think they should have that thought occasionally.”
🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
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This is likely to become a pattern for years to come - and as
@RencapMan
often says it is even more dramatic as the said airport was probably built by Chinese contractors in the first place...
This is the worse tricks of consumer finance applied to Sovereign borrowing...
China to take over Uganda’s Entebbe International Airport for default on debt repayment.
China has rejected Uganda's request to re-negotiate toxic clauses in the $200m loan picked six years ago for the Airport expansion.
The Airport is the only Intl Airport in the country.
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@ProfessorStam
The problem is NOT social media / new technologies
The problem is - unlike most banks with a wide range of depositors, corps, retail, retirees, etc
SVB depositors were mega correlated, and deposits a temp storage of equity raise while burning cash, hence short term by design +
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@Mij_Europe
U.K. : as king, Charles III won’t be allowed to voice politically sensitive opinions
Charles III : Hold my beer let me go and visit Tories most hated foreign leader and the guy Liz Truss called a foes a coupe of weeks ago
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If a $/ Ruble trade happens at 90 but no foreign bank or investors was involved, did it really trade at 90 ?
Guys move on, you don’t need to have run an Emerging market FIC trading franchise to know it, you are being played by being led to believe sanctions won’t “work”
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@Noahpinion
"The possibility that Japan could have an emerging market-style currency crisis should therefore be concerning to people all over the world."
Sorry but there is no state of the world in which Japan would be faced with an EM style currency crisis...
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In my days as an Emerging market manager, the
#1
thing I looked at was infrastructure. Willingness to build infrastructure ( Roads, electricity, railways to make it simple ) by authorities means a commitment to long term trade and population wellbeing
I’m not quite sure how to explain what’s happened tonight, because it’s still happening - but here goes…
At 4:40pm I jumped on a train from London to Edinburgh..
It was comfy, it was quiet
In hindsight, too good to last…
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Believe me, if Putin knew that he will strike in "3 days" Ukrainian Eurobonds would be in the high 50s...
( If u want to see what insider geopolitics trading is, check.. Ukraine bonds in December 2013 and a.. Russian bank buying half of an entire issue before RU "Bailout")
Des responsables du Pentagone fuitent depuis une heure que " Poutine a décidé d'envahir l'Ukraine et a prévenu l'armée russe et 3 dirigeants occidentaux il y a 3 jours" . Aucune autre précision.
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@AndurandPierre
Why always complain about liquidity when movements are adverse ? As a Hedge fund you make a living of sharp moves and volatility
Too many think liquidity gap in your favour is due to your smart brain and one against due to market dysfunction ?
Liquidity works way up and down
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1/24 As Druckenmiller and Soros would say, Charts speak a thousand words… so here is a chart / threadon Zambia 2027…. To put things in context, see Chat GPT Timeline on the Zambia default
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Arrogance is a b.tch …
@realKunalAShah
Trump and Vance in 2 days have given away more ammunition’s to democrats than Jesus 5000 man bread feast …
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@RossLydall
@SebDance
@TfL
The most crazy thing is that despite this success, HS2 or Crossrail 2 do not have the huge public support they deserve and keep getting postponed …
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@tracyalloway
You spend years hearing about efficient markets at school, just to read this one day … « nobody saw it coming »
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@SquawkCNBC
@LJMoynihan
Tell me you have never worked anywhere near an investment bank without telling me you have never worked near an investment bank job...
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Thread... ( sorry no idea how to thread reply )
@TheStalwart
@tracyalloway
THE TURKISH LIRA ODD LOTS:
On the new episode,
@tracyalloway
and I speak with Lütfullah Bingöl, economist at Albaraka Türk, to help understand Erdogan's new gambit to save the lira and to stem the tide of dollarization.
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0/n Thread.. left EM ages ago but this is most spectacular chart for anybody trading EMEA in early 2000s..
Why ?
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When Ex M.S. “colleague” Stephen li Jen talks about the $ you have to listen… the inventor of the $ smile which am sure you have seen “Ctrl-c” thread version of in last few months on Twitter
Dollar :-(
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@HANKonX
@7Veritas4
Dude they are 300M users on X, 10-20% of which are bots, porn scam and trolls ..
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@spignal
Now do the kind of education / state vs private school and I am 99% sure it will show the… exact opposite, that the real diversity problem in British politics is not « race driven » but « background / education » driven…
Race diversity vs background diversity problem
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@GRDecter
That business owns tanks, nukes and a money printer
Then of course that business defines the numéraire for most of assets and liabilities in the rest of the world, and for a chunk of world trading activity
Then it can sanction you out of it…
Maybe would not short it then
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Tell me you have never ran market risks without telling me you never ran risks… ( of course “selling” at the top near 18.00 as one does )
Our Turkish Lira fair value got lots of criticism. But it's precisely at times like these - when there's so much noise & it feels like there's no anchor - that it's at its most useful. Lira at $/TRY 18.00 was ridiculously cheap, even with everything going on. With
@UgrasUlkuIIF
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I have read THE book...
"The Fund" and Ray Dalio's leadership at Bridgewater, highlights the complex challenges of succession planning in alternative asset management. Hedge funds, categorized as either founder-centric or multi-strategy/multi-manager, face a unique dilemma
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When I started in Fix Income in 1997, most important # was Jobless claims, then moved to NFP and confidence data, now guess mix of NFP and inflation
Was always told that before my time, biggest # moving market was housing start... we may get back there in next few months / yr
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Remember those Long Island Ice Tea clowns who "shifted to Blockchain" ? they were not just clowns, they were crooks as well....
SEC Obtains Final Judgment Against CA Man Gannon Giguiere for Insider Trading in Long Blockchain Co. fka as Long Island Iced Tea Co.
Previously sentenced to 1 year in prison for participating in pump and dump stock manipulation scheme
$LBCC $LTEA
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@TheStalwart
But how can real terms economics indicators be accurate when inflation is grossly mis-calculated and underestimated ?
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@nfergus
Europe union is a group of countries so lot of things have to be defined by regulation to set a common framework.
Proper labels, proper food standard, proper control mechanisms for - say - airlines, etc
That is only way unjon works. Anybody doing biz in Europe knows it well…
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EM sovereign Double digit coupon issuers are not concerned about debt affordability/ solvency, they only want to make it to the next election … ( most of the double digit coupon debt does not get repaid )
🇰🇪 Kenya : 10.375%, book 6x oversubscribed. As a reminder the country was part of the potential default candidates 6m ago. EM is back.
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EM central banks are not ahead of anything they just had to backtrack some insane rate cuts they had sneaked in pretending that despite being EM they could be countercyclical ( and monetise debt ) - and it took 12 months for EM cheerleading investors to realise the insanity
EM central banks advanced in tightening policy + well ahead of DM heading into 2022. HS
#DriehausEM
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@guardian_sport
How do you explain the following.
1. Pogacar has improved 8-10% since 2021
2. His - pretty much benchmarked / validated - watts per kg are high than any Tdf winner last 30yr including when doping was unchecked and 60% hematocrits Indurain was winning
ps : bike tech is same
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The worlds best universities but hatred for experts
Amazing economics faculties but utter morons advising the govt
Nation of traders that closed its markets to next door neighbour
Hate EU but work all life to retire there
Dislike Polish builders until the day need a plumber
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1/n Read this am..
"What Deutsche Bank's Bretton Woods I framework
was to the first decade of the new century, and what QE and Basel Ill then
were to the second decade, we believe that our
Bretton Woods IIl framework will be to the third decade of the new century..."
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@MarinaHyde
« You know the playbook: deeply indebted tears at a flow volume that won’t disrupt the mascara; silence broken only by a pledge to work with children and animals. British children and British animals, just to be on the safe side. »
So much in one sentence …
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For the last 15 years we have heard Saudi Arabia was going to diversify away from fossil fuels
After 15 years the best thing they could come up with was a dodgy green mega city and paying top of market for football clubs and players creating a football league from scratch…
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Has anybody ever seen Zoltan Pozsar and Medvedev in the same room ?
10. The Bretton Woods system of monetary management will collapse, leading to the IMF and World Bank crash. Euro and Dollar will stop circulating as the global reserve currencies. Digital fiat currencies will be actively used instead
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The scariest 5 words for Emerging Market investors "Hires Lazard to Explore Options"...
First Republic hires Lazard to explore options after share price tumbles
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@TheStalwart
@VidiellaLaura
Guy called Zach P&L ? And he works for the Goldman Sachs as strategist ? Cannot make it up..
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@42macroDDale
Please read a CDS explainer and go back to your pricer… CDs at 250 with 40% recovery is around 15% of default over the next 5 years, which is roughly 5% more than it was few weeks ago… with lower recovery default prob even lower
But hey, need to sell those subscriptions …
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@KenWeinstein
@SimonFraser00
Tell me you don’t understand French elections system without telling me…
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@Flash_news_ua
@M_PaulMcNamara
He does not want to share debts among EU members, he wants to get other EU members to give him billions of EU funds…
Irony is dead innit ?
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@stkirsch
Vaccines means opening up economies and exiting lockdown, saying they make case count worse due to some allegedly statistical significance of some random indicator means nothing
You have to be flat earth believer to think that vaccines kill more than they save …
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Question for Emerging Markets crowd : for you, what is “the” success story of EM ( sovs, outside of Europe ) since the Global Financial Crisis ?
*if you think there is none feel free to say it too…
*South Korea is not EM
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@LCI
@louis_aliot
@mchantrait
Le parti des amis de Vlad... Ils ont débarqué ou vos amis russes ? une delgation russe en Normandie le 6 juin serait une insulte a ceux qui y sont morts, et verraient en la Russie d'aujourd'hui trop de similitudes avec les ennemis d'hier...
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@RobinBrooksIIF
What happened to your "it's going to our June 2022 fair value of 21TRY/$ " call ?
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2022 Narratives writers right now…
*Supply chains experts
*Commodities experts
*Russia / Ukraine experts
*EU collapse experts
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20/n and extra bonus : curve shapes tell you even less about the future path of economy, remember the equation at all time
Long end rates = expected inflation + expected real rate + inflation risk premium + real r risk premium + credit premium + "preference for liquidity" premium
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This is probably the most important message for EM investors - and where I differ completely with
@jaynewman
Odd Lots : after a default, obsession with no haircut is unsustainable under any scenario. And this is why, when bonds are at 30 cents. Just h/c 60% and “move on” …
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Historically this is what usually seems to happen. The irony is that had the first debt restructuring been done seriously, with meaningful debt forgiveness, not only would Argentina have been much better off, but the creditors too.
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I would definitely not die on that hill.... it is not cancel culture, it is cancel B.S.
When bank strategists think their views re epidemiology are relevant enough to be published as Econ research, they probably have a hubris problem.... Nuremberg trials reference ? really ???
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First they came for Journalists and I stayed in because of carry,
Then they came for University teachers and I stayed in because of carry
Then they came for the rates lobby and I stayed in because of carry
Then they cut rates and I have no more carry and 50% deval
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Must read thread on my favourite scam of the history of scams….
Did you know a Scotsman once invented a fake country and fooled investors into buying its bonds?
In modern terms, he floated £32 Million of fake bonds in London.
This was the original Fyre Fest. 240 innocent Scots relocated to this fake utopia, but only 60 survived.
BRITISH
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Has the U.K. appointed Michel Lamarche ( Lazard ) and Lee Buchheit yet ?
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@RobinBrooksIIF
Nope, just nope… nobody is “short” something that moves 25% in one day, this is just b.s… there is a structural short $ by virtue of past borrowing and past current account deficit, that is all that matters… I suggest you take victory laps in 4 weeks if still here …
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Just jack up the price of the Schengen Visa to 1,000$ for « Russians » and make it public that money will go to Ukraine based charities
Then let those who want to come - and be known to support the « opposite side » enjoy EU … of course permanent visas is another matter
The real question is the effects of the ban. The freedom to travel abroad was a major gain for Russians after the fall of the USSR. Denying Russians access to the EU could nake a strong impact as a signal that the invasion of Ukraine is denying them something of value. 2/
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@SeanODowd15
You cannot beat some hedge fund and am a big fan of ETF but this story is the sort of b.s. some marketing guy comes up with to sell some competitive advantage when there is none...
In EM, this was the same with private opinion polls, 350 trips a year for the research team etc...
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Irony is dead …
Anna Sorokin, known for taking hundreds of thousands of dollars from friends and businesses while posing as a German heiress, says she's trying to move away from the "scammer persona" and plans to launch a collection of NFTs.
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@ericbeebo
Of course it is ! but it's great banter...
You wanted to be "Singapore on Thames", but you are "Athens on the Wandle"
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Nobody has ever successfully defined Emerging Markets
What’s your FinTwit hot take that would put you in this position?
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I have always seen a 3rd pillar to the $ supremacy. It is not only the asset currency of choice, but - partly for that reason - it is the liability currency of choice… THAT is what creates the convexity - the $ smile…
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@choffstein
Borrow the money, buy the house and rent it out
Buy equity in companies that do it…
Buy inflation protected securities like linkers
Buy a basket of house related equities ( builders, materials etc )
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“Ukraine on the backburner”…🤦♀️🙈🤦🤦♂️
With Ukraine on the backburner, can we refocus on central bank tightening and the impact on
#tech
? If so,
#teslastock
might be a canary in the coal mine. It's early in the week and I've been caught out before, but this looks like a clean break of a major trend
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Article by Evgeny Lebedev... Irony is dead...
Our fight for free speech: At first it was political correctness but now it’s the new McCarthyism
#frontpage
🗞️
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"How it started vs how it ended"
Been banging about artificial scarcity bubble burst for "alleged luxury products" like Patek - 70k watch/yr and Rolex - 1 M/yr... All benefitted enormously from ZIRP alongside NFT of bored apes etc....
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« I have worked for a large European bank for 8 yrs » so let me share my insights on the European bank stability
Waiting for the guy who is inside the Mickey Mouse costume at Disneyland Paris to tell me if I should buy Disney stocks
Is the European banking sector on the brink of a systemic crisis?
I have worked for a large European bank for 8 years - pockets of weakness and structural problems are undeniable.
But let's look into some data to make a non-emotional assessment.
A thread.
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@BondHack
@cynthiao
@PickardJE
"Gupta wrote to Zahawi, inviting him to a “small gathering” at his company’s Rotherham steelworks."
There is always a party.... maybe worth checking when the party took place as Rotherham went into tier 3 lockdown during October 2020 😆
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The "EM Darling curse"...
Maybe one day people will realise that problem is not the higher rates today, it is how much is borrowed, misallocated and "kleptocrat-ed" in every binge cycle...
Poorest countries find finances under pressure from higher rates
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22,400 followers know the best kept secret to be rich… buy at the bottom…
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