☀️ Explosive growth in solar power means most EU countries will hit their 2030 renewable energy targets ahead of time, new data shows, fuelling optimism on efforts to bring down global emissions
By
@victor__jack
☀️🇨🇳China added 33.66 GW Solar capacity in the first three months this year
With this speed, the estimate of 95-120GW new solar capacity in 2023 could be easily achieved
🇨🇳 ☢️ Nuclear power
China Nuclear Energy Association expects ☢️ installed capacity to rise from current 56.82 GW to
110 GW in 2030
150 GW in 2035
400 GW in 2060
⚡️China approves more Nuclear power plants
State Media: 🇨🇳cabinet approved second phase of Zhangzhou nuclear power plant (Fujian) and first phase of Lianjiang nuclear power plant (Guangdong)
+129GW ☀️
China has added 129GW new Solar capacity in Jan-Sep
(Record high Solar additions in 🇨🇳 is not news anymore, every month will be a new record… so this tweet is really just to document the numbers🤓)
☢️ China nuclear power
As of 31 March, China has 54 operable nuclear power reactors with total capacity of 55805.74MW
The nuclear fleet’ average load factor stood at 90.3% in Q1 2022, contributing to 5% of 🇨🇳 total power generation
👏China released the long-awaited 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewables
Key 2025 targets:
🍀20% non-fossil share of energy consumption
☀️50% of RE share in the INCREASE in energy cons
⚡️RE electricity reach 3300 TWh, doubling of wind and solar power generation
🇨🇳 ☀️ China is projected to add 120-140 GW new Solar capacity in 2023
China PV industry association said at an event on 20 July
This is up from its previous forecast of +95 to 120GW
China released key goals in 14th Five-Year Plan:
🇨🇳 2021-2025
🔹>6% GDP growth in 2021
🔹-13.5% in Energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2025
🔹-18% in Carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 2025
🧵Thread on Climate and Energy targets in the new FYP
⚡️ China Nuclear power capacity Outlook:
2025: 70 GW, from draft 14th Five-Year plan
2030: 110 GW, China Nuclear Energy Association
2035: 180 GW, CNCC proposal
2050: 327 GW, Tsinghua ICCSD low carbon scenarios
🎉China added 100.54 GW Wind and Solar capacity in 2021, latest data from energy regulator shows.
This outperforms the 90GW guaranteed target.
Wind: +47.57 GW (incl. 16.9 GW offshore🌊)
Solar: +52.97 GW (55% are distributed ☀️)
☀️ China Solar power 📈
Last year 🇨🇳 connected 55 GW new solar capacity to the grid, and will likely double this number to add a total of 108 GW solar in 2022.
said energy regulator NEA on 30May reported by CCTV news
It’s not only the Rhine River, China’s Yangtze River saw low water levels too as heatwaves sweeping southern regions.
Picture of Hankou in Wuhan city. On 14 Aug, water level at this key monitoring point dropped to lowest seen for this time of year since 1865
How severe is the drought in China’s Sichuan province?
“Hitting rock bottom” in some reservoirs
Power rationing continues due to +40C heatwave 🌡️ and low hydro power output ⚡️
🚨China will unveil the first official 2060 Carbon Neutral pathway and scenarios results on October 12 👇
Live-streamed workshop with Environment Minister and ALL the top climate advisors (Xie Zhenhua, He Jiankun) organized by Tsinghua University.
On 24 October, China released Top-level design document in the '1+N' Carbon Peak and Neutrality policy framework.
On the eve of
#COP26
, and 1 year after China announced 2060 carbon neutral pledge, the implications of this landmark doc are HUGE:
🧵thread:
‼️Over 10 🇨🇳 provinces are curbing industrial production or seeing power shortage in China at present.
Two reasons:
🎯 Bring down energy consumption to meet the target
🏭 Coal plants cut production amid rising fuel prices
This may lasts into October
European carbon price is near €95 now
It was €92 when I had morning coffee, and is still going up while I am taking screenshot of this price chart⬆️
#EUETS
#bullrun
☀️🚫 China has installed 225.26GW distributed Solar as of this September, but further development could slow down due to grid constraints in several provinces
Henan: 8.6 GW capacity left
Hebei south grid: 2.07 GW
📰What caused China's Coal shortage?
An in-depth analysis by Caijing (financial news) with exclusive interviews of coal miners/traders/power plants in the journalists' month-long field visits to Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.
Link:
🇨🇳 ☢️
On 31 July, China State Council approved the construction of 6 nuclear reactors
Shidaowan (Shandong)
Ningde (Fujian)
Xudabao (Liaoning)
Hualong One (HPR 1000) units
☀️China may add 140-150 GW Wind and Solar capacity this year, shown in latest projections by China Electricity Council.
The industry association expects non-fossil installed capacity to > 50% of total fleet in 2022. Coal capacity rises slightly too.
🙏Finally my hometown Xinxiang stands the second round of flooding and Wei River water level starts to recede
Huge sacrifice of 60+ villages in upper-stream Weihui county’s flood diversion zones 😰
Residents evacuated but they lost houses and farms 🏠🌊
🎉China Spot power market rules are officially released!! This is huge news
🇨🇳 NDRC and NEA published the 'Electricity spot market basic rules (trial)' dated 7 September
This marks a milestone in establishing the national unified Power market
👏China ends overseas coal financing!
China will STOP building new coal plants abroad!
🇨🇳 president Xi just announced in his speech at
#UNGA76
He also reiterated China's pledge to peak emissions before 2030 and achieve
#carbonneutral
before 2060
From 🇵🇱 Prime Minister:
“The Polish proposal is to freeze the price of CO₂ emission allowances at €30 for at least one year, with the possibility of extending it for two.”
#EUETS
⚡️ China’s power consumption is projected to rise to between 9800 and 10200 TWh in 2025, from 8637 TWh in 2022
by China Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute (EPPEI)
⚡❓ What’s behind the rapid growth of China’s electricity consumption?
+6.7% in 2023, outpacing the GDP growth.
🧵A recent research attributed the drivers as ‘higher electricity-intensity per unit of GDP, driven by electrification and energy revolution’
🌍Global Energy Infrastructure Emissions Database (GID) just released:
2019 unit-/facility-level CO2 emission data of Power, Iron and steel and Cement sectors just released.
🏭 100,000 facilities
via Tsinghua University sponsored by 🇨🇳ministries
🎉Strong boost for Wind and Solar development in China.
🇨🇳energy regulator NEA aims to raise Wind & Solar generation's share in total power consumption to 11% in 2021 and 16.5% in 2025, from 9.7% in 2020.
This implies adding 100GW Wind&Solar per year.
📉English version of slides from Tsinghua ICCSD “China's Long-term Low-Carbon Development Strategy and Pathway" workshop on 12 October, by professor He Jiankun is pubslished now:
🇨🇳
#CarbonNeutral
€43/t European carbon price🚀
The bull run in
#EUETS
continues on Monday, setting new record high.
Looking at EUA price chart since 2005, then recall I have actually spent quite some of my carbon analyst career with single-digit carbon price.
China's northeast power grid was 'on the verge of collapsing'❗️
so grid company enforced emergency cuts for residentials to stabilize grid, affecting lifts, traffic lights, even water supply.
If peak load >70GW + thermal outages/low wind, then it is TIGHT
🎉Full report of the China Energy Transformation Outlook 2023 is published
Link:
This is a flagship report led by NDRC Energy Research Institute and international partners 🇩🇰🇺🇸🇬🇧🇳🇴, mapping out 🇨🇳
#carbonneutral
pathway
🇨🇳 energy regulator outlined key objectives for 2023
☀️Add 160 GW Solar & Wind capacity in 2023, following ~120 GW addition in 2022
⚡️Speed up the construction of national unified power market system / reform
from the 30Dec National Energy Work Conference
Today marks the launch of 🇪🇺 Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism’s transitional phase
CBAM will affect global trade flows 🧑🏻✈️🏗 and inject momentum into Carbon pricing schemes 🌎
🎉NEW: China Power Sector Reform
🇨🇳 state planner NDRC just released notice on 'Further deepening reform of market-based coal-fired power pricing'
-ALL of Coal power gradually in market
-Expand price floating range
-INDUSTRIAL+ COMMERCIAL users in market
👏👏👏Bank of China announced that it will STOP financing new coal mining, power projects overseas from Q4.
Press release of the 🇨🇳 state lender on its Carbon peak and neutrality action plan:
Reuters: China will ban new steel, coking, oil refining, cement and glass projects in key zones, the government said on Friday in a wide-ranging policy document aimed at tackling pollution and meeting the country's climate goals.
🌧️Will southern China experience drought and low hydro output again in 2023?
Water level at the Three Gorges is still lower than previous years
The southwestern Yunnan province asked aluminum producers to further cut power usage
⚠️60.6% of China's coal power plants are facing net financial loss due to surging coal prices this year.
Researcher Wang Ke of Renmin University estimated based on 2019 fiscal costs of existing coal projects
China Energy Newspaper:
Germany is pushing for G7 nations to walk back a commitment that would halt the financing of overseas fossil fuel projects by the end of the year, reports Bloomberg
🏭 🇨🇳 Coal phaseout
Last week, one Coal power plant in Zhengzhou city saw controlled demolition, after it was shut in 2019 to improve air quality in the city
Video in this news:
@ElephantEating
@KaarinaKolle
“饼状图” in Chinese... “bing-shape diagram”
there may be a hundred types of 饼🫓 (pancake), this picture is a classic homemade 葱油饼 with spring onion.
The large drop in 🇪🇺 European Carbon price this year (so far) has triggered the discussions of 'introducing price floor
#EUETS
' again
My view is:
we shall not focus too much on short-term movements (such as 'speculators driving EUETS price to €100')
🧵
🚨China Power Sector Reform
🇨🇳NDRC just released Guidance on Speeding up establishing National Uniform Power Market
This is HUGE news 🎉
2025: preliminary completion 2030: finalizing national power market
Set up national Power Exchange
🇨🇳 Power sector shall feel the pressure to “Phase down Coal” now following the
#LeadersClimateSummit
pledge
“China will strictly control coal-fired power generation projects” is headline on almost all of the power news accounts I follow on WeChat📱
👏$0.015/kWh
new record low LCOE for China onshore Wind!
🇨🇳 SDIC and SANY completed purchase agreement for 200MW wind project in Guazhou county of Gansu province (32*6.25MW) for LCOE of 0.098 CNY/kWh
based on 4500 CNY/kW & 3400 hrs/y
❓Power of Siberia 2
🇷🇺: It will replace Nord Stream 2
🇨🇳-based expert told Reuters:
"Fundamentally we see little support for it to materialise before 2030 as China has secured enough supplies by then,"
🏭 China’s steel industry is expected to be covered by national Carbon market this year, said the 🇨🇳 Iron and Steel Association in this interview 📰
#CNETS
#CBAM
🏭 China’s Coal power capacity will increase further until 2030, rising to peak at ~1370 GW
+~250 GW from 2022 level
said leading 🇨🇳 think tank State Council DRC in a new report on 16 Sep, reported by Caixin
Very strong signals on 🇨🇳climate pledge from top leadership:
President Xi stressed 'Carbon peak and Carbon neutral is a comprehensive and deep economic and social reform'
...at the 9th session of Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission today.
📢It is OFFICIAL: China national Carbon market will launch online Trading by end of June.
🇨🇳Minister of Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu visited both Hubei and Shanghai inspecting the national ETS Registry and Trading platform.
#OCTT
#CNETS
☀️🇨🇳 China boosted its Solar power capacity by 55% in 2023 (+216.88 GW) to 609.49 GW
Data from National Energy Administration released on 26 January
(Note the 216.88GW are for installations >6MW, so actual solar additions might be even higher)
❗️China
#CarbonNeutral
refers to ALL GHG, not CO2-only
Climate envoy Xie Zhenhua clarified this point at 24 July Global Asset Management Forum:
I think this shall need official confirmation, but rather similar to Tsinghua study.
🇨🇳 state planner released the long-awaited 14th Five-Year Plan for Energy sector today.
by 2⃣0⃣2⃣5⃣:
Energy production: 4.6 bln tsce
CO2/GDP intensity: -18%
Energy/GDP intensity: -13.5%
Non-fossil: 20%
Non-fossil power: 39%
⚡️installed capacity: 3000 GW
🏭China national Carbon market likely expands to cover Aluminium and Cement sector from 2023, and eventually all industry sectors by 2025
said professor Zhang Xiliang at a recent forum, a key designer of the ETS
#CNETS
#CBAM
#OCTT
How to forecast European Carbon price?
I am delighted to share a new working paper by researchers at University of Milan and me on quantitative models to forecast monthly
#EUETS
price.
🔗
👐Your comments are very welcome!
Over the weekend, the topic of China increasing the curtailment rate (from 5%, potentially to 10%) for solar and wind went viral among Chinese power/renewable sector professionals
That sort of confirmed the Reuters news from February citing industry sources
🎉China launched trading in national Carbon market!
9:30am on 16 July 2021
The first trades are here and are quite active since open, says
@RefinitivCarbon
analyst Yuan Lin who is now at the national Carbon exchange.
#CNETS
#OCTT
NEW DATA 🇨🇳📊☀️
By the end of 2020, China has:
Wind capacity: 280 GW
Solar capacity: 250 GW
👇Here are two charts with installed capacity by provinces released by China National Renewable Integration and Monitoring Center:
China state planner NDRC just released a press briefing on ensuring winter/spring energy supply.
-release efficient coal mining capacity
-orderly increase coal imports
-domestic gas production⬆️
-ensure coal/gas plants generation
-pass through energy costs
NEW paper on 🇨🇳Power sector's Carbon peak and neutrality pathway
This comprehensive study in journal Strategic Study of China Academy of Engineering used State Grid's power model
⚡️Power sector emissions peak around 2028
🏭Coal capacity peak at 1250 GW
📉 🇪🇺 EU carbon price fell to €70.60/t after market open on Monday as participants react to the outcome of EU parliament elections with far-righting parties gaining as expected 🗳️
Weaker euro 💶 might also add pressure to
#EUETS
price short term
🏭🇨🇳released 'Carbon Peak Implementation Plan for Industry sectors'
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly with NDRC & MEE published the roadmap on 1 Aug.
'Modern industrial system featuring high efficiency, green, circular and low-Carbon'
☀️China is expected to add 190 GW to 220 GW new Solar capacity in 2024, said the 🇨🇳PV industry association in its latest outlook released on 28 February
Chart below from the slide pack by CPIA, depicting yearly solar additions forecasts for 2 scenarios
The Green
#Beijing2022
showcases what a future 🇨🇳 energy system with 💯 clean energy looks like:
☀️ Solar & Wind
⚡️ Zhangbei RE flexible DC grid
🔋 Fengning pumped-hydro (3.6GW, 10.8hr, 40GWh)
🚌 Hydrogen transport
China added record 72 GW new wind capacity in 2020.
26.32 GW of these are already constructed earlier, but not connected to grid until last year, China Wind Energy Association provided more detailed data on Installed vs On-grid wind capacity below.
🏭Coal-fired power plants are still being favored in German power merit order...despite €70/t
#EUETS
price
European Gas price is just too HIGH
This does exhibit some fundamental support for current carbon rally: high coal burn leads to high EUA demand
❗️China’s official response to EU Carbon tariff
#CBAM
#OCTT
Exclusive news by Yicai news from the 5 & 7 June WTO trade policy review of the EU 🇪🇺
🇨🇳 delegate: “CBAM is regrettable and fails to comply with UNFCCC, Paris Agreement principles and WTO rules”
China’s southern Sichuan province is experiencing tight power supply due to rather extreme weather:
🌡️ Scorching temperatures driving up power demand +20%
🌧 Unusually low level of precipitation resulting in sharp drop in hydro power output
Why are some Chinese provinces facing coal shortage?
This chart on China coal transportation routes from a 2015 literature is interesting to check out.
🇨🇳 ☀️
China is on track to add 85GW to 100GW Solar power capacity in 2022, said the industry association CPIA
In Jan-Oct, China’s solar capacity increased by 58.24GW
NEW: China environment ministry released the average CO2 emissions factor of electricity ⚡️ (kg/kWh)
0.5568 (national)
0.5942 (national, excl. market transacted non-fossil ⚡️)
and for the first time disclosed the calculation methodology (🇪🇺CBAM)
⚠️Surging coal prices are putting pressure on China's power producers
Facing $200/t thermal coal prices, and power tariff regulated & capped:
'One coal plant lose 0.1 CNY per kWh (so 20% of tariff)', via China Energy Newspaper
China considers 40% Renewable power target for 2030, shown in the draft consultation issued by 🇨🇳energy regulator NEA.
📈China's Wind and Solar power capacity need to triple by 2030, reaching at least 1500 GW and above NDC target of 1200 GW.
(Reuters) - China is expected to increase curbs on renewable power plant output for the first time in eight years, three industry sources said, after several provinces said rapid solar and wind expansion had exhausted grid capacity.
⚠️Over 20 🇨🇳 provinces have been curbing power consumption in both industrial and residential sectors since late August.
Chart by Jiemian news on the latest status of China’s power shortage, and provincial energy targets🚦alerts
Key ministries in China are drafting the country’s Hydrogoen strategy 📖, former minister of industry and information technology told China Energy Newspaper.
“Green Hydrogen is the direction”
👇China H2 Pathway roadmap by EV100plus 🚗🚚🛳🔋🏭