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Yan Qin
@YanQinyq
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Carbon analyst at ClearBlue Markets @CB_Markets. Research Associate 🇬🇧OIES. Economist and Power Modeller. also on ☁️ https://t.co/1HMk0PAF9d. 🇳🇴🇨🇦🇳🇱
Oslo, Norway
Joined September 2013
NEW:📈China Carbon price forecast, by me I am delighted to share the China national carbon price forecast that I presented at our recent webinar, based on the inhouse China national carbon market Supply-Demand model 🐋 Details in this @CB_Markets blog:
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🗒️ My take on the impacts of 🇨🇳 China’s Coal plants buildout on its climate goal and the national Carbon market I agree with the view that rising coal capacity will hamper China’s climate efforts and raise risks of stranded assets. Moreover, the coal capacity expansion will strengthen the Coal interest groups’ influences, creating more headwinds to green policies in China. This also include resistances to tough rules for the national carbon market. The intensity-based national Carbon market is in fact incentivizing the buildout of new coal plants. They are more efficient and their emission intensities/MWh are below the allowance benchmark (roughly the average emission intensity of coal fleet), so newer coal plants will benefit from surplus allowances. This adds to the other inconvenient truth that China’s power system planner leaning more towards using Coal as balancing power for renewables, rather than gas power which faces obstacles due to high fuel costs and power market design not providing enough incentives for gas. Chinese power consumption is expected to increase 6% this year + peak power load rising to ~1550 GW, mainly driven by sustained electrification in all sectors. Renewables and nuclear will squeeze Coal plants’s running hours, but it would still be a couple of years before we can see decline in coal-fired generation. This means that coal buildout will expand the coverage of ETS, putting pressure on ETS and energy regulators to utilize various instruments (ETS, renewables, Green certificates/Green power) to control the emissions from Coal burn to achieve the 2030 carbon peak goal.
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RT @DGTresor: 🔴La conférence "A Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism for Climate" démarre à 14h ! #CBAMforClimate #CBAM #MACF Suivez en dire…
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@ThomasShaBeng 😄 I even didn’t notice. Perhaps since my flight is from Oslo 🇳🇴, bokmål then 🇩🇰
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RT @cangsizhi: China is preparing to scrap fixed pricing on renewable power, and let the market decide how much users pay for clean electri…
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RT @cangsizhi: The new policies represent a breakthrough that “reflects a continued push by Chinese authorities to shift the maturing renew…
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