XBTManager
@XBTManager
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Trader @FelixTradeCap // Onchain Analyst // Content partner @intotheblock // Verified Author @cryptoquant_com // Data analysis 📩 business @xbtmanager .info
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The Coinbase premium index has significantly decreased its positive structure, indicating that the potential rise may be a fakeout. The momentum of the green candles needs to increase; otherwise, we are likely to see a drop.
Retail longs are at level 53, and whale selling seems
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-
#Coinbase
premium index continues its positive trend. This indicates a demand from institutional buyers, pushing the price upward.
- The true retail long ratio is at 60, suggesting that as the price rises, retail traders are starting to switch from long to short positions.
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The
#Coinbase
premium index has shifted from a positive to a negative state. Demand from investors in the US has decreased, and this could put downward pressure on the price. There has already been weakening momentum for the past week, and this situation has exerted enough
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Good morning, let's continue updating the market from where we left off and make our comments.
1. The Coinbase premium index is on the positive side, which is a good thing. However, there is a loss of momentum, which has started to pressure us downwards.
2. Looking at the CVD
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Let's take a closer look at the chart side of things and discuss how we should think about potential reaction zones.
Currently, Bitcoin is in a pullback phase. It has found some buyers after touching the blue dashed line, indicating to me that it is within a valid structure. I
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The Coinbase Premium Index continues to maintain its positive structure. We can say that pullbacks in Bitcoin are still being considered as buying opportunities.
If the Coinbase Premium Index were to drop into negative territory and remain there with momentum, it could be
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Binance data shows that the retail long ratio has dropped significantly to around 61 levels. As Bitcoin rises, retail short pressure has started to increase. Due to this, we can say that Binance whales have slightly reduced their sales. However, overall, whales are still selling.
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1. The Coinbase Premium index continues to be positive. Staying on the positive side will support the continuation of the rise. The peak area in the last upward wave does not support it; we can say there is a loss of momentum.
2. The volume delta is in the buyer's position in
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The Coinbase premium index has shifted from a positive structure to a negative one, but the momentum is not strong, so there is a possibility of recovery. It should not remain on the negative side for too long.
Binance retail long positions are around the 60 level, and although
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What is the Market Sentiment?
Binance retail long positions are around 63, and as Bitcoin drops, the retail long ratio increases, while the whale vs. retail delta continues to move lower. This indicates that whales are likely selling. There also seems to be an increase in short
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1- The downward momentum of the
#Coinbase
premium index has started to weaken. This indicates that possible demand is beginning. We might be close to reversal zones, but it looks like there is still some room to go.
2- Spot CVD continues to exert selling pressure. No strength is
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The Coinbase premium index has started to turn positive, and it's crucial to maintain this level. If it continues to remain in the red, selling pressure will start to build.
Spot CVD on Coinbase and Bitfinex is sustaining buying pressure. While Binance continues with selling
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1- The
#Coinbase
premium index continues to be on the positive side, indicating that the demand for bitcoin from US institutions is increasing. The upward trend may continue until it turns negative.
2- The true retail long ratio is 66, which is still a high level. Despite the
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1. Binance spot CVD is decreasing, indicating that as the price rises, there is selling on the spot side, supporting the idea that the price is being pushed up from the derivatives side. This suggests that speculators are in the game. Sharp movements are coming from this. Binance
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The Coinbase premium index is trying to shift from a negative structure to a positive one, but it is unable to maintain the positive structure. If the positive structure is not sustained with momentum, Bitcoin will face pressure. This increases the likelihood of a decline. The
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The Coinbase premium index is trying to turn positive, but there's not enough strength. If it continues to remain on the negative side, the declines could start to intensify.
The retail long ratio is around 70, and as Bitcoin shows a slight rise, retail traders have started to
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#Binance
continues to apply selling pressure on both the spot and perpetual markets. This situation is exerting downward pressure on the price, causing it to decline. As long as the CVD generally continues to decrease without any pause or recovery, the downward pressure is likely
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The Coinbase Premium Index is fluctuating around the 0 level, alternating between positive and negative. After losing a lot of strength, this situation is quite positive. If we can manage to stay on the positive side, an upward movement will be inevitable. However, if this
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The Coinbase premium index appears to have shifted into negative territory, which could create selling pressure in the market.
The Binance retail long level is at 64, with the long pressure slightly decreasing and shifting towards short pressure. While whales continue to sell,
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1- There is no significant recovery on the CVD side yet. It only achieved a very small recovery in a support area where it dropped. I saw long positions being built up with futures and pushing the price upwards. For now, we can say it is unsupported. It is pulling back to drop
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The spot CVD generally appears stronger, and as Bitcoin becomes cheaper, spot CVD becomes more dominant. There is constant selling pressure with perp. The Bitcoin funding rate continues to trend negative with a slight decline, creating upward pressure on Bitcoin. Coinbase CVD
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1- Retail Long (
#Binance
) appears to be at the 70 level. These rates continue to push the price down. The global long ratio is quite high, as the price drops, retail longs increase, and it continues to fall. A long squeeze is occurring. We see that top traders' positions are on
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We entered risky zones yesterday. The data was good and the uptrend could have continued, but after the news from the US, heavy short pressure formed in the market. This pushed the price down. For now, I think the downward pressure will continue until the data looks positive
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The Coinbase premium index has turned negative. The loss of momentum has evolved into a negative direction. We need to see an urgent rise from these levels; otherwise, if 65750 is lost, we could visit lower levels.
The general spot CVD is on the decline, with a significant loss
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1- The rise in Binance (orange) CVD is supportive. It wouldn't be bad if it brought a few more strong waves. Coinbase (blue) is trying to recover from yesterday's sales; it doesn't look bad, but I want to see stronger buy orders again. Since it's the weekend, Coinbase will move
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1- Since around $58,000, there has been an imbalance in the whale CVD for BTC perp. It gets pushed up with support from a region and then continues to be pushed down with sharp sales. While doing this, the whale CVD shows an upward transformation. In the case of the long/short
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As we see Bitcoin drop by 8%, the retail long ratio is increasing. It is currently at the 62 level. As
#Bitcoin
falls, retail longs are rising, which encourages the price to drop even further. The Whale vs. Retail Delta is at -3, indicating that whales have fewer long positions,
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#Bitcoin
I will follow the dense yellow areas on the Bitcoin liquidity map. In these areas, I will consider the probabilities of initiating a pullback and taking new positions.
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#Binance
’s true retail long pressure is decreasing, and as Bitcoin rises, retail traders have started opening short positions. The whale vs. retail delta is at -1, indicating that the selling pressure from whales has significantly decreased, while retail is now becoming the main
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ETH has initiated a pullback from its bottom level and is currently advancing. Due to the low liquidity in the pairs, they are showing extreme volatility at the moment. Binance's long ratio is at 70.0.
The whale vs. retail delta is -4.27. This is good because it indicates that
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The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index seems to have quickly shifted from the negative side to the positive side. If it can continue to stay in the positive territory, it could signal a potential rise.
Regarding Binance retail and whale sentiment, we can see that retail investors
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1- The
#Coinbase
premium index continues to be in negative territory, indicating a lack of demand in the US. Although there is a slight improvement in the downward momentum within itself, we are still on the negative side.
2- The retail long ratio is around 64.74. The high
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Let's examine the overall CVD side.
Binance is a high-volume exchange, so it has a significant impact on price, which I want to highlight first.
I will analyze Binance CVD separately for spot and derivatives.
For Binance Spot, we can say that most of the purchases since
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The Coinbase premium is progressing in a positive structure. Currently, the dips can be seen as buying opportunities. The Coinbase premium index should not sustain itself on the negative side, and its momentum should not become excessively bearish.
The Binance retail long ratio
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- True retail Long on Binance is at 62.68. As the price rises, retail investors begin to take short positions, causing this ratio to decrease. This decrease continues to push the price upwards. The Whale vs Retail delta is at -1.15, indicating that retail investors are in long
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1- When I look at the aggregated CVD, it shows that the Spot - perp - Futures side does not support the rise, and this rise is likely to remain a pullback. We need to see some strengthening on the CVD side. This is a problem for us. Every minute it doesn't reach ATH, the
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Prices Dance in Liquidity Zones: Trade Only After Liquidity!
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As Bitcoin rises, Binance retail starts applying selling pressure. As retail selling pressure increases, the whales' long positions seem to be growing, leading to sharp price increases. Top trader positions remain short. We’ll see when they decide to close them.
The Coinbase
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We know that the spot CVD is stronger than perp and futures. While Bitcoin perp creates selling pressure, spot CVD is generating buying pressure. Although it’s generally good for the spot CVD to be positive, we should consider that this could lead to some issues. In a way, we can
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1- Small fish are buying, while big fish are selling. Small fish should stop, and big fish should start buying. Continuing this way puts downward pressure on the price. We should expect the selling to continue as long as this persists.
2-
#Binance
Spot CVD continues with selling
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1- The
#Coinbase
premium index is currently negative. This situation will increase price pressure. To attract liquidity and generate hype, we need to shift to a positive structure.
2- With the price decline, we are seeing an increase in True retail long positions. This is
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1-
#ETH
looks quite strong. A few days ago, using some metrics, we managed to catch a sell-off and could drive the price down from 3550 to around 3400. Currently, the price is gaining strength continuously and continues to absorb liquidity.
The CVD side has gained significant
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The Coinbase premium index has started transitioning from its positive structure to a negative one with momentum, signaling the beginning of sustained pressure, and dangerous situations are starting to emerge.
The Binance retail long ratio is at 73, and it seems that whales have
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Taking a trip before Bitcoin reaches its all-time high (ATH) is always a good idea. It’s an opportunity to clear your mind because we’re about to embark on a long journey that will be exhausting throughout the year. Be patient and wait to enjoy the journey to ATH. Time is running
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I can tell you that we have entered a dense liquidity area on the Bitcoin heat map, and this level extends to the 50K band. We are in a potential reaction zone. There is a possibility that the decline could initiate a rise from here. Of course, we need to add other data for this,
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The Coinbase premium index, remaining at zero for a while in both negative and positive phases, indicates an accumulation phase. After a decline, this positivity looks quite promising. The heavy selling pressure seems to have subsided. It can be said that demand for Bitcoin among
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After the Bitcoin drop, a few changes have occurred. Whale vs retail delta has started to increase slightly, indicating two possibilities: whales have taken long positions, or retail long positions have closed. There isn't much increase in bid rates, meaning there aren't many
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The overall view of the CVD remains bullish, with some selling having occurred, and attempts being made to push the price up using perpetual contracts. If there is no further selling, the price could continue to rise from here. However, we might expect a pullback, as some
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New flow on July 5th: -68,498 BTC
This possible outflow is the largest since November 2, 2022, which saw a -66,182 BTC outflow.
On July 5th, there was a Bitmex outflow of -22,956 BTC, and on July 6th, an additional outflow of -12,530 BTC.
On July 5th, Mt. Gox saw an outflow of
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#Bitcoin
Update
The Whale vs retail delta is at -11.62, indicating that as the value drops, retail investors are taking more long positions, which is putting heavy pressure on the price. Binance users' long ratio is at 76.30%, indicating an excessive number of long positions.
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1- The retail long ratio is 70.46, and we see it increasing as the price drops. This situation might continue to drag us down. Whale vs. retail is -10.04, and as this ratio decreases, we understand that most of the long positions are taken by retail traders. There is no upward
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oh shit, here we go again
#Bitcoin
Yüksek kaldıraç likidite alanlarını kullanmak isteyecektir son zamanlarda sadece likidite odaklı çalışmalar yapıyor. Emirleri o şekilde dolduruyorlar.
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In Binance data, the retail long ratio has risen to 77. We can say that whale selling activity has significantly increased. The top trader short ratio has not decreased, and I believe the downtrend could continue.
The Coinbase premium index has shifted to the negative side, and
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Spot Market There has been a decline in CVD. Although the selling pressure isn’t too high, some selling has occurred.
#Coinbase
has experienced somewhat sharper selling, while Bitfinex shows buying pressure. Binance remains neutral, simply observing the market.
Looking at
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I will discuss LINK's potential strong support and resistance levels.
The last time I analyzed LINK, it was hovering around $15. We can see that it has reached its first strong support levels and is showing some reaction at these points. The strongest potential support levels
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While analyzing our ETH M15 chart, I will discuss some possibilities. The current long ratio is 76.94, and the short ratio is 23.06. Buyers seem to have slightly decreased, but what we need to pay close attention to is that when ETH hit the bottom level at $3200, the Whale vs.
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It seems that there is a lot of short liquidity accumulated in ETH. The price will likely target these areas. Be sure to use these areas as support and resistance. If you see any weakness, you can take short or long positions accordingly. The market is moving very slowly these
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1- The
#Coinbase
premium index continues to maintain positive data. Institutional demand continues. The biggest factor before continuing upwards.
2- The true retail long ratio is at 59. As the price rises, retail short pressure increases as shorts. This continues to press the
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1- True retail is at the 50.6 level. We see that the retail side has stabilized and the market is in a decision-making phase. As Bitcoin rises, we see an increase in retail short pressure. This encourages us to believe that the price will go higher. The long rate on
#Binance
is
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NVT Golden Cross Update
The NVT golden cross is producing a buy signal after a long period. This indicates that we may have reached a possible local bottom area. When it reaches the level of -1.6 or lower, it generates a buy signal. At the level of 2.2 or higher, it generates a
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As USDT exits from the spot exchange, around 3K bitcoins have entered the spot exchange during the last rally. It’s uncertain when they will sell these, but they are holding them ready for sale. The blue line indicates the bitcoins entering the derivative side, and we can see
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1. The Coinbase premium index has lost momentum and turned negative. This indicates a weakness in demand from the U.S. side.
2. When examining the CVD, we observed significant selling during the last pullback phase, even though Coinbase and Binance were generally on the rise.
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#Bitcoin
I expect it to go down to the lower grey box. For now, this is my plan, and I will consider this until I see some strengthening. If I see strength from the grey box, I might buy. However, there is a high probability that some manipulative movements will occur during this
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Toncoin remained quiet for a long time and then surged sharply. It has provided more returns than many other investment assets. When we look at the top 20 coins, only Solana has outperformed Toncoin. So far, the Bitcoin bull rally has occurred without significant money flow into
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Let's examine the specifics related to Bitcoin. For the past few days, while the price has been moving sideways, I have noticed that with each new low, the bid ratios increase while the ask ratios decrease. During these changes, I also paid close attention to the Whale vs Retail
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I shared the short opportunity in the grey box and thought it would continue upwards if we saw strength in the lower grey box. However, it didn't show strength and we see it continuing downwards under heavy selling pressure. I don't see much strength and currently, I believe any
#Bitcoin
I expect it to go down to the lower grey box. For now, this is my plan, and I will consider this until I see some strengthening. If I see strength from the grey box, I might buy. However, there is a high probability that some manipulative movements will occur during this
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Yeni high olası gibi duruyor. Şuana kadar herhangi bir bearish senaryo söz konusu değil. Güzel yanı extremde olmamız.
#DXY
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Piyasa yükselir, herkes long pnl atar.
Piyasa düşer, herkes short pnl atar.
Herkes kazanıyorsa, kim kaybediyor?
yalanınızı s........
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Bu düşüş bir alım fırsatı gibi duruyor. Likiditeleri biriktir sonra hepsini al güzel senaryo gibi.
#Bitcoin
sert hareket etmesine kısa bir süre kaldı gibi.
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Long oranı %68.38
Short oranı %31.62
Balinalar ile retail arasındaki durum ise şu şekilde retail tarafı daha fazla long pozisyonda olduğu için fiyat aşağı baskılanıyor.
@hyblockcapital
#Bitcoin
#BTC
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