Deelan Jariwala
@WxTca
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Just another weather enthusiast that obsessively tracks the tropics and impulsively codes. UM ‘26
Joined September 2018
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Last Seen Profiles
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Between my expectations of continued warmth in the tropical Atlantic and the onset of La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific, I'm expecting a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season. I have detailed upon my reasoning in the below document:
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If you told me a month ago that early September would involve nascent tropical waves moving towards Morocco and bringing tropical weather to the Sahara, I would have been very confused. Somethings very wrong out there…not too sure what
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It’s getting sort of ridiculous, but despite most satellite estimates holding steady, there are *still* signs of
#Mawar
intensifying. Over the last 90 minutes, the eye has dried by nearly 3 degrees on water vapor imagery, putting it up near some very strong TCs.
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Broke the -10C threshold 🥳
It’s getting sort of ridiculous, but despite most satellite estimates holding steady, there are *still* signs of
#Mawar
intensifying. Over the last 90 minutes, the eye has dried by nearly 3 degrees on water vapor imagery, putting it up near some very strong TCs.
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FYI: NOAA will not be transmitting real-time SFMR data through the remainder of the hurricane season due to degraded/unreliable data.
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>meteorologist were wrong from start to finish
>posts gif proving the opposite
>600 likes
>???
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Crazy view of a volcanic eruption at
#HungaTongaHungaHaapai
, an undersea volcano, from GOES-17. Really cool to see the shockwave here, and cloudtops rising well above the local tropopause (note how the cloudtops shift to blue, representing warmer temperatures).
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Scary-looking computer model runs on your timeline may be tempting to share. Before you do, step back and consider the source. Sharing info from reliable sources like
@NHC_Atlantic
, is just one way we can work together towards delivering the right message this hurricane season.
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With a dropsonde confirming a pressure of 897ish millibars,
#Milton
joins an elite list of storms. The only Atlantic tropical cyclones with a central pressure below 900mb are Allen (1980), Rita (2005), Labor Day (1935), Gilbert (1988), and Wilma (2005).
Aircraft data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters aircraft flying in
#Milton
finds that it has strengthened throughout the day, with extrapolated pressures falling beneath 900mb. If this can be verified by dropsondes, it would be the strongest TC in the Atlantic since Wilma 2005.
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Not to detract from the landfall, but Otis is everything that models struggle with in TCs. A tiny storm spinning up from the monsoon trough in an environment with moderate wind shear, benefiting from divergence aloft forced by a jet streak as it approaches land. Just unfortunate.
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FWIW, CPC's Oceanic Nino Index has come in at +2.0C for NDJ. This means that the ongoing El Nino event ranks amongst some of the strongest in recent history, trailing behind only 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. This also makes it a "Super" El Nino (top ~3% of events).
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Imagery thread because this is just a wild sight:
Still awaiting ASCAT (more specifically, proof that there are no fronts attached to it), but the system off of the East Coast looks increasingly subtropical as convection builds around the center. Still has a day or so in conditions conducive to (sub)tropical transition…
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Fujiwhara between tropical cyclones are rare. It’s rarer still for two such interactions to be occurring simultaneously, as is happening in the East Pacific right now — Carlotta + Daniel and Emilia + Fabio.
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A recent ASCAT overpass of
#95L
reveals that it is in the process of acquiring a well-defined low level circulation. With convection persisting and likely to grow in aerial coverage as we head into the night, it seems increasingly likely that Beryl is coming soon.
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I’m sorry, what??? Why are *both* the GFS and ECMWF showing a (well beyond) record breaking extratropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere in under 48 hours? An ensemble consensus of <910mb is ridiculous!
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I've been meaning to put together a satellite loop of Hurricane
#Maria
's extraordinary rapid intensification event for a while now (as well as the code to make GOES loops). Finally made time to do that -- really cool to see the storm interact with upper level features around it!
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I decided to make a loop of the unnamed system because I figured that with the late ATCF designation, there isn't much imagery from the usual sources (NRL, RAMMB, FNMOC, etc). This video runs from 00z on the 15th through 20z on the 17th.
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If you ever wanted to know what an eyewall looks like without any meaningful deep convection, Tropical Storm
#Hone
in the Central Pacific is the storm for you. Cool to see such a coherent low-level structure (producing 40-50kt winds per recon!) with no real thunderstorms.
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With the help of a robust Panama Gap Wind event, upwelling has begun in earnest in the eastern Equatorial Pacific. The surfacing cold pool is rapidly eating away at the remaining El Nino warmth, which has become increasingly diffuse over the last month or two.
The end of the El Niño event is in sight, as the leading edge of the cold pool comes close to surfacing. The passage of the MJO (or a Kelvin wave…hard to tell) over the Indian Ocean in the coming days should speed this up by unleashing strong trades over the equatorial Pacific.
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I guess I spoke too soon when I said that most satellite estimates are holding steady. The 00z Dvorak fix from the JTWC has maxed out the scale at T8.0 or 170 knots. This makes
#Mawar
the first storm to be assessed as such since Surigae in 2021. What an incredible typhoon.
It’s getting sort of ridiculous, but despite most satellite estimates holding steady, there are *still* signs of
#Mawar
intensifying. Over the last 90 minutes, the eye has dried by nearly 3 degrees on water vapor imagery, putting it up near some very strong TCs.
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Water vapor loop of July 1-26, 2005. It's incredible to see not one, but two high end hurricanes move through the Caribbean at a time where climatology is still extremely hostile to tropical cyclones in general.
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Today's blizzard in parts of New England reminded me of the powerful cyclone that dropped a massive swath of heavy snow from DC to NYC in 2016. I wasn't aware of any satellite loops showing its life cycle, so I put together this gif. This storm gave me a solid 30-36 inches!
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A recent overpass from the COWVR instrument aboard the International Space Station shows that this feature in
#Milton
has become increasingly well-defined. These closed low-level cyan rings tend to be the harbringer of rapid intensification, which seems increasingly likely.
It's interesting to note that with weaker shear lower in the column (I.E. what would impact a shallow vortex most) relative to flow aloft, a nascent low-level core is beginning to develop in association with Milton. Will be worth watching this feature as shear relaxes tomorrow.
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I'm not sure this is what a tropical cyclone under 30 knots of westerly shear is supposed to look like? Why are we completing an EWRC in an objectively bad environment.
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It'd be awfully 2020 for Sally's remnants to either regenerate or develop into a new storm off of the East Coast. Keep in mind that Sally itself formed from the midlevel portion of an invest related to Omar. Omar was spawned by the extratropical remnants of Laura.
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Nearly two and a half weeks and ~110 degrees of longitude later, Bonnie appears to be on the verge of being downgraded to a remnant low as cooler waters and a stable environment take their toll on the system.
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Cool to see this structure on the high resolution AMSR2 imager this afternoon (from NRL). There remains some subtle vortex tilt with Beryl here as a result of nagging easterly wind shear, but with an evident eyewall, it seems likely that substantial intensification is coming.
Overnight, this structure in
#Beryl
has transitioned into that of a nascent eyewall. Likewise, its satellite appearance has become increasingly CDO-dominant as peripheral banding fades. Seems increasingly likely that rapid intensification is coming within the next day or so.
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We have been very lucky to receive a total of *6* microwave passes of
#Mocha
over the past 5 hours, offering us a view of how the storm’s structure has evolved. Convection, which was bursting around the center, has now solidified into a robust singular eyewall as RI continues.
The shear that was impacting
#Mocha
is beginning to subside now as outflow expands to the SE and thunderstorms wrap around the eyewall. With no sign of an EWRC soon on microwave imagery and improving conditions, it stands overshoot intensity forecasts and could reach >130kts.
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Loop of the rapid intensification of Hurricane Iota (2020) between November 15th and 16th. On satellite, this is probably one of the top RI events in the basin with the shrimping, extreme VHT activity, expanding outflow, and axisymmetrization. Truly a misplaced typhoon.
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Jova is now a Category 5 hurricane...the first in the East Pacific since Willa in 2018. This represents an increase of about *80kt* in about a day.
For reference, rapid intensification is defined as 30kt/24hr.
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Per the JTWC,
#Fabien
is now the equivalent of a major hurricane at a mere 7.3S! For the southern Indian Ocean, this is virtually unprecedented for time of the year. It occurring in May makes it even more anomalous — this is the equivalent to a 100kt NATL/EPAC storm in December.
Microwave imagery of TS
#Fabien
indicates that it is building up a low- and mid-level core, both which are vertically stacked. Given the low shear environment and high environmental moisture, the storm could intensify significantly despite its extremely low latitude (<5S!!)
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Loop of 2017’s Hurricane Irma on September 5th, when it rapidly intensified into a menacing 155kt storm. As someone who started tracking fairly recently (2014ish), these are easily some of the most iconic images of a TC — a HH photo from that day is still my profile picture!
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Worth noting that Agatha has also become electrically active recently, with numerous lightning strikes occurring within the RMW. Studies (such as the one linked in the below image) have shown that high lightning activity in this region is correlated with RI episodes.
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Very quick sketch of the low-level clouds associated with 92L — there appears to be two dominant vort-maxes situated on either end of a broader, elongated circulation. Will be interesting to see how these interact — models show the northern one winning out eventually.
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Loop of Hurricane Sandy beginning with it's rapid intensification south of Cuba, and ending with it's transition into a post-tropical cyclone and landfall in New Jersey.
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Something of a important announcement, I am excited to say that I plan on attending
@univmiami
next year to major in atmospheric science! It’ll be a big change, but I’m looking forward to beginning my formal education in meteorology :)
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We were fortunate enough to have not one but *two* ASCAT passes over the center of the system this evening. There does not seem to be any obvious fronts connected to the low-level center, and with persistent deep convection, its increasingly hard to argue against classification.
Still awaiting ASCAT (more specifically, proof that there are no fronts attached to it), but the system off of the East Coast looks increasingly subtropical as convection builds around the center. Still has a day or so in conditions conducive to (sub)tropical transition…
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It would not surprise me if
#Idalia
began an eyewall replacement cycle by the time it makes landfall tomorrow, especially given the amount of banding wrapping around its tiny core. Storms ahead of troughs benefitting from divergence aloft often undergo this evolution.
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Over the past two months, the strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has largely collapsed. It’s not a coincidence that the subsurface cold pool has strengthened rapidly in the WPAC, and is likely a sign of the El Nino’s incoming demise (see Izumo et al. 2010 for more).
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The May NMME forecast was released today, and continues to show a moderately strong La Niña event lasting through the end of the year, with corresponding precipitation anomalies. Decent agreement for a +AMM in the Atlantic too, though MDR SSTs are only vaguely above average.
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Despite being very near 40N, Sam appears to be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle! Satellite imagery corroborates a well defined moat separating the old inner eyewall from the broader outer core. The TC is quickly approaching the edge of the Gulf Stream now.
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I’m really not sure what to make of the evolution of Mawar’s inner core over the last day. It’s hard to tell, but it doesn’t look like the inner core is gone yet (though it’s nowhere near as robust as it was). Outer eye is a bit thinner now, but pretty much the same diameter.
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Worth noting that despite the worry about the Canary Current and warmth in the far North Atlantic, the SSTA pattern matches up very closely with the composite of the 8 years that have the lowest PV streamer activity (in other words, midlatitude wavebreaking) on record.
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Pretty cool low moving ashore near the NC/SC border this afternoon — very nontropical though. It’s pretty baroclinically driven and lacks deep convection anywhere near the center. It is however a symptom of the overall pattern across the US.
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Getting to the point where short term wobbles will likely determine the exact extent of damage that Acapulco will receive. A possible worst case scenario for the area may be unfolding with it looking increasingly unlikely that the city avoids the eyewall of
#Otis
...
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After a period dominated by an anomalously weak subtropical ridge, the East Atlantic has warmed up significantly again. With temperatures nearly 3C above average, the 26C isotherm is getting close to the Canary Islands — unusual for any time of the year, let alone July.
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#Milton
may be on the verge of bombing out as vortical hot towers burst in all parts of its eyewall on infrared imagery. It'll be interesting to see what the aircraft investigating finds structurally, as with few environmental impediments, the storm is otherwise set to take off.
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Still awaiting ASCAT (more specifically, proof that there are no fronts attached to it), but the system off of the East Coast looks increasingly subtropical as convection builds around the center. Still has a day or so in conditions conducive to (sub)tropical transition…
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Another month, another record broken.
#Don
is the northernmost forming hurricane during the month of July, beating Danny 2003 by a little under half a degree. SSTs near the storm are well above average (note that the cool region to the SW was upwelled by the meandering storm).
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Much like Michael,
#Helene
seems set on rapidly intensifying through landfall. A TROPICS microwave overpass reveals that the storm has finally acquired a solid eyewall, and the aircraft that is flying in it is finding a substantially lower pressure than earlier. Not great.
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Many problems with this guy, but claiming that one can be a meteorologist without having the requisite education is false and diminishes the credibility of those who have put in the needed work. There’s nothing wrong with being “just” a weather enthusiast!
I am looking forward to several more "clickbait controversies" as we head towards 2023!
Don't worry, y'all. I know what we are doing is good. It's beneficial, and quite frankly, it's the future.
Sooner or later, everyone will be on board. Thanks for being some of the first!
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I'm a little late to the party with the seasonal model-posting, but I think it's worth talking about the trend towards a more significant Atlantic Nino event this summer. It's pretty subtle, but if this does pan out, it could have some pretty interesting ramifications.
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Probably not an imminent threat (especially not relative to PTC 04L), but it might be worth watching this convectively active tropical wave in the central MDR. Upper winds aren’t particularly favorable in the Caribbean, but they could improve later this week in the West Atlantic.
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This reading of *-103.9C* associated with a violent burst of convection in TD 90P has to be one of the coldest on record for a geostationary satellite! Not surprising at all that it’s happening in the Southern Pacific.
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Latest microwave image of
#Milton
shows a *tiny* core with most of the banding off to the north and west. It almost looks like a supercell, with the eye/eyewall as the hook echo. No signs of an imminent EWRC here, despite radar, so it'll be interesting to see what recon finds.
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In the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons, the bulk of the ACE generated relative to climatology is produced just to the north and east of the Antilles. Likewise, the extended GEFS and EPS are beginning to show a massive anticyclone set up here at the start of September.
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It should not be understated just how favorable the environment ahead of
#Mawar
is. As it heads WNW, SSTs and OHC should steadily increase while shear remains low. To compound this, a poleward outflow channel should open to the north as the storm interacts with a subtle trough.
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We recently received a pretty crazy AMSR2 overpass of
#Mocha
. This is pretty clearly a intense TC with a lot of spiral banding surrounding a well defined inner core. Some signs of an EWRC starting now on low-level data w/ a slight moat. This does not decrease the threat to Burma.
We have been very lucky to receive a total of *6* microwave passes of
#Mocha
over the past 5 hours, offering us a view of how the storm’s structure has evolved. Convection, which was bursting around the center, has now solidified into a robust singular eyewall as RI continues.
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Surface observations, satellite imagery, and ASCAT all indicate that a broad low pressure has formed in the Bay of Campeche and is consolidating in response to persistent convection over the center. While the environment it’ll enter will be sheared, this’ll be with watching.
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For what it’s worth, a SAR overpass of Hurricane
#Ernesto
found winds of C2 strength earlier today (a little higher than the estimated intensity, but more in line with some of the newer aids). Seems like HAFS got the second peak structure and strength down pretty well!
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Very cool to see a supercell in
#Debby
’s eyewall as it intensifies this evening. Past studies, like Hogsett and Stewart 2013, have shown that these structures play a significant role in how a TC’s eyewall contracts, and we’re likely seeing similar dynamics here.
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While it doesn't stand out as much as
#Beryl
's extreme winds, the hurricane's pressure and wind relationship is just as interesting. For the better part of its life (and especially when it was an intense TC), the storm tracked near the upper edge of all recorded Atlantic storms.
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Cool…
Despite it being January, both the GFS and ECMWF indicate that the core of a low pressure system that develops off the East Coast in a few days could acquire some subtropical characteristics as it revolves around the larger system. Seems pretty unlikely based on climatology...
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This has to be one of the best (if not THE best) looking tropical waves I have ever seen. Lots of centralized deep convection, expansive anticyclonic outflow aloft, and low shear is responsible.
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An ASCAT overpass of invest
#95L
reveals that it is not yet particularly well organized yet, with a diffuse low-level structure. Convection atop the vertex of the tropical wave's axis has been rather persistent today however, and could allow for the disturbance to tighten up.
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Here's a fun way to think about the current MDR warmth: parts of the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles are warmer now than they were during the *peak* of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season!
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Obviously early, but as far as upper-air patterns go, there’s a pretty good consensus for a favorable environment in the Western Atlantic around the 2nd week of October. Seems to be at least partially extratropically forced(?) as MJO/CCKW doesn’t seem particularly favorable.
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Observations from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba (as well as visible satellite imagery) seem to indicate that PTC
#04L
has acquired a broad low-level circulation. With environmental conditions generally favorable, further tightening into a tropical cyclone seems likely.
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Some pretty cool features you can pick out on this short IR loop of
#Mocha
:
- 3-4 mesovortices orbiting around the eye
- A *lot* of transverse banding (turbulence!)
- Waves spiraling outwards from the center
- Convection strongest downshear
- Thunderstorms building upshear
We have been very lucky to receive a total of *6* microwave passes of
#Mocha
over the past 5 hours, offering us a view of how the storm’s structure has evolved. Convection, which was bursting around the center, has now solidified into a robust singular eyewall as RI continues.
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The environment that has allowed
#Beryl
to intensify to the brink of category 5 status should not be undersold. Sea surface temperatures several degrees above normal coupled with an exceptionally favorable upper air pattern have come together to produce this incredible storm.
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The far northern Atlantic, just to the southeast of Newfoundland, has warmed a ridiculous amount in just the past two weeks. Sea surface temperatures in the area have rapidly shot up from near normal to well over 7C above average in that short period of time!
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Fascinating scalloping in the northern eyewall of
#Helene
as it makes its final approach to the Florida coastline. This appears to be associated with intense lightning activity and very strong convection, so it’s possible that it’s associated with small-scale vortices.
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While convection is lacking,
#Ian
looks healthier today with regards to structure. Lots of shallow thunderstorms organized in spiral banding features around a single, dominant low-level center. The skeleton for rapid intensification seems to be set — it’s just a question of when.
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Incredible satellite loop of Hurricane
#Beryl
as the sun sets on it this evening. As many others have mentioned, Beryl is the first storm of this caliber on record in June, and is occurring in a climatologically unfavorable portion of the basin, perhaps due to record warm SSTs.
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A new ASCAT pass of
#Earl
seems to show it in the midst of a downshear center reformation with a very sharp trough axis extending beneath the convection. Based on radar, the LLC may be trying to reform near the MLC, so it’ll be interesting to see if intensification results.
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The MDR disturbance the NHC is presently monitoring is a testament to how favorable the Atlantic has been this year. The slow moving wave is massive, with convection scattered over a 10-15 degree wide area. Meanwhile, easterlies aloft are screaming due to the TEJ.
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How silly of me to forget that the El Niño subtropical jet would be rerouted all the way up to 40N instead of shearing the Atlantic! Guess the window is going to be longer than I expected, probably in part due to lift associated with the record warm MDR.
#elninobtw
This should allow for anomalous westerlies aloft to overspread the MDR, perhaps prematurely ending the train of TCs we have seen lately.
Meanwhile, as low-level westerlies begin to reach eastward in the WPAC, the active monsoon trough may allow for increased typhoon activity.
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Easily one of the weirdest things I’ve woken up to.
#Ian
is now a high-end category 4 hurricane after aircraft flying in it found flight level winds as high as 160 knots + SFMRs of about 135 knots. A 50/50 blend of those two measurements supports an even higher intensity FWIW
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I know I keep on posting this, but it's just wild to see such a large cyclonic circulation stretching across most of West Africa here. The cumulus field is a good sign of abundant moisture -- you can see it converging into the thunderstorm complex in southern Algeria.
It’s probably not a coincidence that this is happening during a period with above normal precipitation in the Sahel. Enhanced convection there needs to produce anomalous subsidence somewhere. It’s not unlike the pattern theorized to exist during last African Humid Period.
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What an impressive looking low. A station ran by UW-Madison on Thurston Island in Antarctica has recorded an elevated pressure of ~896mb. Using the hypsometric equation, this converts to a SLP of about 923mb with some distance between the island and the center.
I’m sorry, what??? Why are *both* the GFS and ECMWF showing a (well beyond) record breaking extratropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere in under 48 hours? An ensemble consensus of <910mb is ridiculous!
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